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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
8:41 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:43 PM 14/03/2004

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Dave Fluri
Canadian Action canadienne:
Ross MacLean
Al McDonald
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Anthony Rota
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Les Wilcox

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Nipissing (82.3%)
Bob Wood
Timiskaming-Cochrane (17.7%)
Benoît Serré

2000 Result/Résultats:
22,807 57.91%
8,473 21.51%
4,810 12.21%
2,922 7.42%
371 0.94%

(171/175 polls, 56315/57195 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(45/186 polls, 12114/53190 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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23/06/04 KCK
Email: [hidden]
This riding is a solidly Liberal one. Tory "Al" will pick up many votes in the suburban and rural areas in the south end of the riding, but the left-wing artsy and university types in urban North Bay (many of whom will strategically vote Liberal even though they would otherwise vote NDP or Green had a less popular Tory candidate run), coupled with the newly attached and traditionally Liberal supporting Temiskaming area to the North will ensure that the Conservatives go down to defeat.
However, the NDP and Greens will still see gains thanks to the increasingly left-wing character of the city of North Bay.
06/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
If there's a Tory perfect storm in the works, it'll be in evidence here--an open Liberal seat, and absolutely the right CPC candidate in Al McDonald (his bare provincial byelection win for Mike Harris's seat, then his general-election defeat: a lovely sequence of blessings in disguise). And like duh; the provincial electoral record proves why one mustn't take the predominantly Liberal federal electoral record for granted. In spite of reports of NDP candidate quality, it remains the rare Northern Ontario seat where the anti-Liberal ledger *really does* favour the Tories rather than a Tory-NDP draw--although that might not have been so clear a case were "Al" not the Tory candidate...
04/06/04 Da Man
Email: onthedock53@yahoo.com
I have been watching this race closely. I use to work at Queen's Park for Bill Davis, but Haven't really looked at politics since then. This time around I'm interested. I live in Temagami and now I'm part of Nipissing-Timiskaming. When the Anthony Rota was selected I thought, good for him, no safer seat then Nipissing-Timiskaming, then the scandal hit, and then Al ran... now I can see the Liberals are facing defeat in this riding. I know because an old adeage at the Leg was once the faces and dollars start rolling you know they are in trouble. Today the Liberal Party, not ANhtony took a full page ad out in our paper here. And Monday Ken Dryden comes to town. The Liberals seem to be pouring in help and the Conservatives can see it happening. Al has been around enough to know that he should be smiling... at least for now. Conservatives by 4000
23/05/04 James
Email: [hidden]
Nipissing has been staunchly Liberal (except for the Moe Mantha aberration) for 70 years and nothing will change here. The new riding has absorbed a significant francophone population on the Northern end and a bilingual candidate (Rota) will take the votes that unilingual Al McDonald won't have access to. Al will make a lot of noise but noise doesn't equal voters. Rota will get a pass on the current Ottawa scandals because he's not incumbed. Red all the way.
19/05/04 Wild Man
Email: [hidden]
This riding is interesting. New boudaries and no incumbent.
Believe it or not I think the NDP will make the difference. They have an excellent candidate in Fluri. He's extremely intelligent, articulate and a "people person." For the first time ever the NDP have a candidate who just MIGHT be able to shake loose some votes. Of course most of his votes will come from the Libs but some of the progressives in the Conservatives might also be moved to him if they're mad enough at Harper and McKay. I think the Libs have the edge but if the NDP mount a good campaign things are definitely too close to call.
McDonald has name recognition but he also has the provincial Tory taint that was solidly rejected in October. Rota is a star candidate but he could be viewed as an opportunist. After the entire Lib riding executive resigned and after the string of broken McGuinty promises I think it's clear that there is some trouble in the Lib ranks.
This race deserves to be closely watched over the next few weeks. I have to call it too close to call right now.
12/05/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
I'm not willing to toss the riding to the Conservatives at this stage, though they have a formidible candidate in Al MacDonald. he will draw well in North Bay and I a m interested in seeing if the Conservatives can resurrect their previous support in Timiskaming, which voted Conservative three times in the 1980s with MP John McDougall. Given the riding is open and the Conservatives are running a pretty well known and popular candidate, this should move to the too close category pretty soon. Count on the Conservatives to play a card from the Alliance in running against the gun registry...this got them quite a few votes (but no seats) in northern Ontario in 2000 and the issue still has traction.
07/05/04 Bull Moose
Email: [hidden]
Former Deputy Mayor and MPP for Nipissing Al McDonald has been acclaimed as the Conservative candidate. I think this tips the scales to the Conservatives, polling in the area had Rota and any COnservative candidate running neck and neck. Now with the very popular McDonald in the race its the Conservatives to lose.
Rota better pray for a Liberal sweep in June, because that's what it is going to take to keep this seat Liberal.
13/04/04 Watt Tyler
Email: [hidden]
This is likely going to be the most solid Liberal seat in northern Ontario. I don't expect much of a contest here regardless of national trends.
30/03/04 Bull Moose
Email: [hidden]
Bob Wood did win by alot last time and has ruled this area since '88 even before the Libearl sweep in '93 and to be fair Ben Serre has also dominated in the riding above part Nipissing, part of which, is now included in this district (the temiskaming part)..ah! but the key thing is that Anthony Rota is not Bob or Ben, he's a nobody and if you look at the statistics incumbents rarely lose and wide open races are generally tight. That's why this riding is too close to call, the stats don't lie. Let's wait and see who the Conservatives nominate shall we.
25/03/04 Gerry
Email: gerardjkennedy@hotmail.com
Bob Wood has held this seat since 1988. In 2000, he had 25% more than the Liberal and Conservative voted combined. And this was when Mike Harris was the provincial member. He's long gone and the CPC's chances to take this riding never existed.
20/03/04 Rich
Email: [hidden]
Conservative narrow win. The voters in Nipissing historically vote for incumbents. The problem for the Liberals is that the incumbent isn't running again. If the Tories elect a high-profile candidate the Grits are going to have trouble holding this riding.
17/03/04 Big P
Email: [hidden]
Listen, this seat is not a given. Bob Wood is done and it will be a wide open race between little know Rota and a high quality Conservative Candidate. The word is that either Mcdonald or Deputy Mayor Peter Chirico are going to run. Both of those individuals are better known and better politicians then Rota. People up there are the type to get angry and stay angry over the scandals and I predict a strong rebuke by the residents of this borderline Northern Riding. Conservatives look like the favourite over a less then stellar Liberal candidate.
09/03/04 Bull Moose
For the redrawn Nipissing-Temiskaming its too early to tell. A staunchly Liberal riding, even more so with the absorption of Tri-Town area to the North (part of Ont. Min. David Ramsays riding), it looks good so far for the Libearls. They have nominated Anthony Rota a former North Bay city councillor well know to the community. All rests on who the Conservatives run, if its a big name (say... former MPP AL Mcdonald) we got a race .. if not... congrats Anthony Rota. The NDP are a perennial non factor in this riding. TIME Will tell... lets get it on!

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