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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
8:37 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
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8:37 PM 6/26/2004

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Janice Hagan
Joe Li
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
John McCallum
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Ed Wong

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Markham (100.0%)
Hon. John McCallum

2000 Result/Résultats:
25,090 70.93%
5,870 16.59%
3,070 8.68%
746 2.11%
599 1.69%

(132/184 polls, 64697/85105 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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20/06/04 Stevo
Oh come on. John McCallum is not going to from an astonishing 66% win in 2000 to a defeat this time around. As much as I would love for the arrogant, ineffective, and utterly pompous McCallum to go down to defeat (if there was EVER a scathing indictment of the traditional failure of so-called "star candidates", McCallum provides an apt example), I can't see it happening this time around. Harper's campaign in Ontario is now stalled and will probably remain neck-and-neck with the Liberals come election day. Even if Harper's Ontario numbers start to approach the 40% range (an unlikely prospect), this riding would still remain Liberal. Tory strategists hoping for an inner-York Region win should concentrate on Thornhill next door where a much closer race seems to be emerging.
20/06/04 KW
Email: [hidden]
The negative impact of Ontario Liberal Budget is still unpredictable. The proportion of chinese voters in this riding is significant. Tony Wong has been questioned terriblely in a chinese radio phone-in program every week.
The voices reflect that a large percentage of voters will put this issue into the consideration. Chinese residents (esp people from Hong Kong) generally prefer lower tax rate.
07/06/04 David Gates
Email: [hidden]
Although I want the Conservatives to win, I am not sure that they will with the campaign that they are running in Markham-Unionville. Joe Li will have to overcome the big Liberal advantage in Milliken to prevail. That might be possible in the next election but likely not this one. Mr. Li does not have an evident lead in the Unionville section of Markham-Unioville to overcome his disadvantage in Milliken. John McCallum is an oaf but will likely prevail this time before he goes under or bails out for the next one. McCallum has one extra secret weapon working in his favour: Jim Jones is Joe Li's Campaign Co-Chair. Jones' eratic perfomance as a PC turned CA MP from Markham from 1997-2000 is still well remembered. Jones managed to get campaign resources expended before the writ dropped on various schemes that were not likely to help Joe Li very much. Jones' carelessness has contributed to an investigation by Elections Canada into Joe Li's web site because easy to follow rules were broken during the opening days of the campaign. One must wonder if Jones, who worked hard to get Joe Li nominated without opposition, was hoping that Mr. Li would be flattened by the then perceived Martin Steamroller that, only months ago, seemed headed for certain victory over the new Conservative Party. Maybe Jones was hoping for a second shot at being an MP in the election after this one so that he could get that nice MP Pension that the voters of Markham denied him in 2000. It would be amusing if Mr. Li did manage to win in Markham-unionville despite the actions of Jim Jones.
06/06/04 MSH
Email: [hidden]
Four years ago I said that McCallum was made for this riding and would win easily, contradicting commentators who thought the Canadian Alliance candidate had the inside track. I was right; they were wrong. McCallum is now a cabinet minister and should win comfortably. If the Conservatives take this one, the Liberals may well lose every seat they currently hold in the 905 belt.
05/06/04 JT
Email: [hidden]
It really pains me to do this but I can't see John McCallum being defeated especially how handily he won last time.
04/06/04 Graydon
Email: [hidden]
I still believe Markham is far from to close to call, this riding will go Liberal. As for arrogance, it was Joe Li that said there are too may garbage immigrants being let into Canada, he couldn 't have been by chance refering to those new immigrants living in the south of the riding? I'm pretty sure they'll remember that on E-Day.
04/06/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
To answer Frank's question, yes there is an NDP candidate, one Janice Hagan. We don't think we need to argue on the point that the NDP have little chance of winning here. Still a toss up between the Liberal incumbant and the Tory challenger. No guess yet.
25/05/04 Frank
Email: [hidden]
Is this the hangout for the McCallum campaign team? Talk about underestimating the Conservative candidate who has strong ties to the community especially the Asian population. In regards to J. Poole's comment, I found it interesting that Mr. Ng who just happens to be a McCallum supporter came out screaming intolerance. Now, if Joe Li doesn't like immigrants does that mean he dislikes himself? His family? I don't buy it. What does that make Mr. Ng? Is him lashing out at Joe being anti-immigrant? Anyhow, from what I've seen including election signs being neck in neck...this riding will be a VERY close vote but I see the Conservatives pulling through. Lastly, is there an NDP candidate in this riding? It seems like a two party race based on signs.
25/05/04 Jim
Email: [hidden]
What a totally arrogant statement by Graydon. I am a member of one of those "various ethnic groups" and I am definitely NOT voting Liberal, and neither are many of my fellow family members who live in this riding. Keep in mind also that the candidate for the Conservatives, Joe Li, is also a member of these "various ethnic groups", and himself an immigrant, with strong backing from both the Chinese and South Asian communities. This will be a tight race in this riding, but there is enough dissatisfaction with Liberals of all stripes throughout the community to give the edge to the Conservatives here.
25/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Not so long ago Markham epitomized the affluent, educated, 905-belt impregnable suburban Tory fortress--with two clinchers: Don Cousens' retaining the provincial seat for the PCs in 1987's Grossman rout (which set off a chain reaction of super-vicTory after super-vicTory in 1990, 1995, 1999); and Jim Jones becoming the only federal Charest PC elected in Ontario in 1997. But it was an illusion--and an illusion that frayed as the demographics swerved from Olde Unionville ultra-WASP to predominantly Asian. Thus in 2000, John McCallum not only defeated the now-Alliance Jim Jones, he creamed him with an astronomical 2/3 of the vote. And the coup de grace came in 2003 with the shock defeat of well-regarded PC MPP/cabinet minister David Tsubouchi. Now with the seat carved back so that the already-Liberal/Asian Milliken Mills and Armadale take on even greater prominence, the prospect of a Tory takeback becomes ever more remote--Joe Li may have the right ethnicity, but not necessarily in the best way. But still, one mustn't underestimate the degree of throw-the-Liberal-bums-out sentiment out there, especially given McCallum's mixed cabinet record--what happened to Tsubouchi could well blow the other way. (But, with a notional 70%+ mandate?!?)
23/05/04 Graydon
Email: [hidden]
I cannot believe this riding is listed as too close to call, John McCallum may have been parachuted into this riding in the last election, but the fact of the matter is he demolished a local candiate of some experience in Jim Jones. South of seven is growing fast with various ethnic groups and they will all vote Liberal. And enough Progressive Conservatives like McCallum's bank background and Cabinet status to keep him in there.
This is a very safe liberal seat in the 905.
19/05/04 Steven Lloyd
Email: zeker@yahoo.com
Whoever said "The Liberals got 70% of the redistributed vote against an incumbant MP in 2000" got it exactly right. Someone who could topple an incumbent has support as a person in that consituency. Since that time he has become a fairly high-profile cabinet minister. Even if you add the "unite-the-right" votes together they still only get 24% of the vote. Do you really think the liberals will drop 25-30% in this seat? With this MP? all signs point to a Liberal hold.
18/05/04 J Poole
Email: [hidden]
My guess is we've (CPC) written off this riding. Joe Li falls on his sword and says nasty things about immigrants. Rednecks in the rural constituancies will be drawn to the Tories. The Party will claim that it is *only that one candidate's opinion*, not a Party policy. This is an old Reform-Conservative trick and works quite well to solidify the social conservative streak, by letting them think that the Tories are anti-whatever, in a plausibly deniable way. Unfortunately it is also the reason why the Tories have such high negatives in multi-cultural communities. Good news, Tory margin in Lanark will go up, a bit, too bad we have to write off 40 other ridings to do it.
11/05/04 RWA
The Liberals got 70% of the redistributed vote against an incumbant MP in 2000. I don't expect them to match that this time, but there's a lot of room for them to drop. Since that election McCallum has received a high profile from Cabinet. Granted, most of it has been a result of embarrassing incidents and an embarrassing performance as Defence Minister, but it wasn't enough to turn a landslide victory into defeat.
However, I am unfamiliar with this community. The only way McCallum can lose this riding is if the Tory candidate is strong, well-known and has a significant ethnic community willing to back him en masse.
01/05/04 Colin Davis
Email: cdavis@sympatico.ca
This is a Liberal win for sure. Even if the former Minister of National Defense and present Minister of Veterans Affairs lost 25% of his 2000 vote he would still be sitting at a winnable 45%! Is there any reason to believe that he will fall that much? I don't think so. This is clearly a Liberal riding - more so after redistribution, McCallum is a sitting cabinet minister, former chief economist at a major bank, and most importantly a down to earth and likable individual.
This isn't even close - Liberal win for sure!
19/04/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
We'd like to point out to KPC that the PC candidate (Jim Jones) won this riding in 97 with a majority of over 3,600 votes, making him and Nunziada (spelling?) the only non-liberals to win in Ontario. Jones' crossing the floor to the Canadian Alliance was a big part of his downfall and is why the Liberals garnished 70% of the vote. McCallum comes across as an arrogant little so-and-so, couple that with the incident of him being kicked off a plane for being intoxicated (I've seen many people get on planes that were buzzed, he musta been really obnoxious to get kicked off) and a cabinet demotion, and it doesn't look good for the candidate. Not to mention the Liberals being deflated in the polls and an effect (albeit small) made by Belinda throwing money into her nearby riding, all spells trouble for the Liberal incumbant. Too close to call as of now, but it will be a definite fight.
19/04/04 B. Stewart
Email: [hidden]
While I am a life long Conservative and say that Oak Ridges-Markham is ripe for the CPC picking, I agree that this riding will stay Liberal. John McCallum is (or was) a high profile Cabinet Minister, which makes him difficult for any star candidate to knock down and the loss of 'Olde Markham' for Unionville won't help the Tories here.
18/04/04 KPC
Email: fin_gov_on_ca@hotmail.com
The Liberals got 70 % in the last election. This seat is not to close to call. Conservatives will do well in Ontario and likely win 30 to 40 seats depending on poll numbers but this seat is not one of them.
21/03/04 The Masked Tory
Email: [hidden]
Joe Li the nominated CPC candiate has a great reputation in the Chinese community in the riding, and will give McCallum a run for his money. The way the Lieberals are falling in the polls, Joe should pull it off in this swing riding.
20/03/04 pundit
Email: [hidden]
Redistribution only helps the Liberals here. Gone is the more conservative area of 'old Markham' (moved to Oak Ridges - Markham). Remaining is Unionville (more conservative..although even this is changing with growing Asian pop'n) and Milliken Mills (80%+ Liberal driven by dominant Asian & Indo-Canadian pop'n). With Milliken Mills accounting for over 2/3 of the riding's population...the outcome is virtually assured. It would take a Liberal collapse of gargantuan proportions to turn this to the Conservatives...regardless of the candidate. After some early stumbles in the press by John McCallum, he's largely stayed out of the spotlight recently and should cruise to victory.
19/03/04 Evan Dandy
Email: [hidden]
Dead Liberal Walking Alert!
The Conservatives nominated community heavyweight community activist Joe Li here last night. This will make the race against John McCallum very interesting. Joe Li is extremely well connected in Markham. This should be a very competitive race.

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