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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
7:34 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
7:34 PM 6/26/2004

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Len Carter
Frank Luellau
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Lynn Myers
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Kris Stapleton

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Cambridge (7.9%)
Janko Peric
Kitchener Centre (17.6%)
Karen Redman
Waterloo-Wellington (74.5%)
Lynn Myers

2000 Result/Résultats:
16,257 46.66%
11,394 32.70%
4,984 14.31%
1,831 5.26%
373 1.07%

(14/209 polls, 5036/82963 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Kitchener Centre
(29/210 polls, 11216/80360 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(119/203 polls, 47431/77456 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
Conservative Frank Luellau has this socially conservative part of K-Town sewn up and that comment about homosexuality being unnatural he made earlier on Rogers televised debates seals the deal. Lynn Myers is going to lose Kitchener-Conestoga because the Liberal is using that right-wing extremist language and it only works on the NDP vote, not Red Tory here. The Mennonite vote stays with the Tory Luellau but without the needed democratic reform agenda, it will be iffy where the Reformers in this riding, and others surrounding, go.
23/06/04 Howitzer
Email: [hidden]
Conservative Luellau hasn't shown up to the last three debates. Fortunately for Luellau his mother is ill but the Conservative campaign messed up by not sending someone in his place to Morningside, Elmira and New Hamburg.
Word on the street is the local Tories don't want to debate policy with Myers who is a 'professional politician' and turned Luellau inside out at the one debate Luellau attended.
The Tories are hoping that because the riding is rural they'll win without campaigning by relying on voters to vote for Harper vs Martin rather than Luellau vs Myers.
However, the Tory platform of cancelling infrastructure grants is a sleeper issue in Woolwich, Wilmot and Kitchener with Woolwich and Wilmot looking at arena/recreation complexes and Kitchener planning an LRT.
Rural residents in particular are asking where will the money come from without Federal grants? Local tax increases? Myers, as the former Mayor of Wilmot knows the importance of this issue and is milking it for everything its worth.
In addition, if any candidate was going to benefit from nervous Greens and NDP'ers it will be Myers as Luellau's bible thumping persona plays into the 'unite the left' mentality.
Myers has been hurt by a weak national campaign but is clearly the only candidate who would get an interview in Kitchener-Conestoga if we hired MP's instead of electing them.
Don't be surprised if a recount is needed to decide this one.
23/06/04 Kevin
Email: [hidden]
Definitely looking like a squeaker here in town; it's an out-and-out sign war in the vacant lots and boulevards (every Luellau sign gets a Myers next to it and vice versa). Luellau has taken out at least a few full-size billboards, something I can't ever recall seeing around here before. Carter's starting to get signs out, but is clearly lagging behind the frontrunners.
But this isn't about ad budgets, it's about support. With the reorganization there are many more city voters this time out, including lots of middle-income folks up Fairview way. That bodes well for Myers; I agree he's no shining example, but we've known him for years now. Luellau is seen as a backward country boy to some extent, but still has a decent following.
It's still to close to call with less than a week to go; definitely a race to watch.
23/06/04 d.l.
Email: [hidden]
Three weeks ago, this seemed to be a close race, however, a rare combination of events suggests that Myers will hold the seat. Luella was lambasted by The Record and national media after his right-wing comments on homosexuality and Myers support saw a boost after that. Secondly, Luella has not been in the riding for almost two weeks - press reports say he's with an very ill family member out of province. Suggestions are he might not even make it back for eday. Thus, he has missed all but one of the debates. If the Conservatives pick up this seat, it will be a sign of the impact of their national campaign.
21/06/04 John Postma
Email: [hidden]
The lawn signs indicator is very lopsided in favour of the Conservatives here in the northern end of the riding (Elmira and surrounding). Given the vote split between PC and Alliance last time around, and the recent Liberal provincial budget, the Liberal support is definitely down, and as such I predict a Conservative win here. Locally, there was some backlash toward Frank Luellau for his comments on gays being "unnatural" in the local televised debate as well, but it seems backlash against the Liberals may be more prodominant than the local candidates themselves. Haven't seen much evidence of support for the NDP here thus far.
21/06/04 CP
Email: [hidden]
Liberal Myers is up to his old trick of proclaiming any Conservative (CPCer Luellau) as a right wing extremist to redirect from his own mediocre perfomance. Alas, Luellau proves Myers "right" by fitting the bill justifying homophobia, private for profit de-regulation of our public resources and services using his job as director of Christian charities as a shielf. Talk about six of one.
Len Carter appears more the civil libertarian with platform in hand watching the classroom clowns duke it out. Carter needs to put the pressure on steady going like the Tortoise to both Hares.
Kitchener-Conestoga is where the wild west meets the French Revolution so pack your knitting needles it should be entertaining!
09/06/04 DTC
Email: [hidden]
I just watched the local candidates debate and I must say that Lynn Myers did very well. Frank Luellau was slow off the draw and not very articulate. Len Carter was very mediocre. A pleasant surprise was Kris Stapleton of the Green Party, although she kept reiterating her party's platforms over her own comments. There were plenty of Liberal supporters in the crowd and Luellau was quizzed on many Conservative social policies. His answers were less than stellar. He had to deal with questions on gay marriage, abortion, capital punishment, and the Bloc Quebecois and it didn't seem to go over too well.
Luellau also admitted that in one of his previous careers he implemented legal religious discrimination of homosexuals. His age is against him and his Christian background (where the legal discrimination issue comes into play) may not play well in Kitchener. It will be very difficult for anyone to overcome Myers experience. He toned things down this time out with no yelling. Myers is the man to beat.
09/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Because this seat is defined by Waterloo Region's rural/satellite fringe with a rump (however, and increasingly, significant) of Kitchener's southward sprawl, it's a truism to call it--essentially, Myers' former Waterloo-Wellington bulwark with the Wellington cut out--the most likely Kitchener seat to go Tory; and the provincial tally proves it--although paradoxically, this was a "Nixon Liberal" heartland up to and including the Peterson years. And the potent fundamentalist element within this Mennonite heartland renders Luellau's Alliance-ness more advantageous than disadvantageous, even if the truest Mennonite demo is renowned for *eschewing* the polling booth. If Myers can stake his hopes on anything, it's that Kitchener's southern 'burbs are not only growing fast but curiously "leftish" as such 905esque sprawl goes; and thus w/boundary changes, it's a more "compatible" seat than its predecessor. But does that matter?
03/06/04 John Scott
Email: johnscott9999@mail.com
I spoke with someone who was out canvassing with the conservative candidate and they said the response at the door was amazing. They said there were lots of people who expressed their angry about the Liberals. The canvasser said a lot of people didn't know who they were voting for but had decided it wouldn't be Liberal. Sounds like this riding is up for grabs.
25/05/04 DTC
Email: [hidden]
Although I have to agree that if the Liberals lose any riding in this region, Kitchener-Conestoga would be it. Lynn Myers isn't the most popular politician in town, but his competition is very weak. The Conservative hope rests on the fact that the combined PC/CA vote in 2000 is about dead even with the Liberals. Frank Luellau is not a very attractive candidate for the CPC to field and he is definetly from the Alliance side of this merged family. Len Carter is little better for the NDP. Neither Luellau nor Carter have been elected to anything, while Myers has a long political career at the municipal and federal levels. The only way Myers loses is that the voters distaste for him and the Liberals overwhelms their apathy towards the other candidates.
23/05/04 Morty Hines
Email: durmatang@yahoo.com
The Liberals don't have a chance here. All of the recent polls show CPC Ontario support near the combined conservative vote in 2000 (32% -> 28%). That alone should push this into TCTC, except, wait the Liberals have only a little more than 2/3 of the Ontario support they had last time (59% -> 41%). Do the math: CPC in a walk.
19/05/04 James Bow
Email: [hidden]
Of the four ridings in Waterloo Region, possibly the one most likely to swing Conservative. Lynn Myers knows his constituency pretty well and he plays to them well, but I think he has an incredible race on his hands.
19/04/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
We have to agree with PFR that calling this a Liberal safe seat is crazy. Look at the boundaries of this riding and you can see that it is more rural than urban which implies a conservative slant to the voting patterns. With Torys represnting much of this riding at Queen's Park and neighbouring ridings that are rural going to vote Conservative how can anyone predict a definitive Liberal victory? Too close to call as of now.
09/04/04 PFR
Email: [hidden]
This riding will be solidly blue when everything is said and done. Both the Waterloo-Wellington and Cambridge sections of the new riding are represented by provincial tories. Couple that with the fact that just about everyone in the riding dislikes Lynn Myers and I don't see how the Liberals will be able to pull this one off. After all Paul Martin's personal popularity has just slipped by 15%. To consider this a safe Liberal seat is just crazy.
19/03/04 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca

If there's going to be a Conservative pickup in the Kitchener area, this will be it -- Myers isn't as likeable a figure as Redman or Telegdi, and the riding is strongly Tory at the Provincial level. That said, I suspect that the Liberals will be able to hold on -- probably by about 5%.

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