Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision

www.electionprediction.com

Eglinton-Lawrence
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
7:16 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
8:52 PM 18/03/2004



Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

Candidates/candidats:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Shel Goldstein
Canadian Action canadienne:
Corrinne Prévost
N.D.P./N.P.D.:
Max Silverman
Conservatives/Conservateurs:
Bernie Tanz
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Joseph Volpe

Population 2001
populations
106,879
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs
71327

Incumbents/Les députés:
Eglinton-Lawrence (92.9%)
Hon. Joseph Volpe
St. Paul's (7.1%)
Hon. Carolyn Bennett

2000 Result/Résultats:
Redistributed
24,100 59.17%
7,569 18.58%
5,437 13.35%
2,629 6.45%
OTHERS
994 2.44%

Eglinton-Lawrence
(171/186 polls, 66293/72280 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results
22549
5219
2409
6908
OTHER
905

St. Paul's
(17/223 polls, 5034/79237 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results
1551
218
220
661
OTHER
89



Sponsoring this space? See sponsorship details
24/06/04
Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
Replacing Maurizio Bevilaqua as King of the Martin Grits, Joe Volpe has been the godfather of the Liberals here for years, running the backrooms and its many electoral decisions for a long time, until he hit the wall called Perth-Middlesex with his invented relation Brian Innes. That blow to the then-PCs was the first of many since and it hasn't stopped at all during the Paul Martin era, coming right to his doorstep in the form of Bernie Tanz, the Conservatives want this seat but the NDP running another young kamakazi isn't going to help due to his grand inexperience. It is indeed true is that Tories own from the east of Bathurst and Grits to the west, Eglinton-Lawrence will be the closest race between these two in the inner 416 but unless his past wrongs come out of the closet to bite him in the butt, it will be Joe's to lose.
23/06/04 W.R. Allen
Email: [hidden]
Bernie Tanz seems to be doing pretty well in the orthodox Jewish areas around Bathurst and Lawrence, likely due to the Conservative position on Israel and Tanz's attempt to make school funding an issue. However, Volpe isn't invisible in this area either, as he's also a strong supporter of Israel and is highly regarded in the Jewish community - which represents about 25% of the riding's population. But as pointed out, besides the orthodox, the vast majority of Jews vote Liberal...and given Harper's rightwing positions on social issues, I don't think there's going to be the major realignment in the Jewish community that conservatives are hoping for (since Jews are overwhelmingly liberal on social issues).
In the affluent WASP/Jewish areas east of Bathurst, I think Volpe has a comfortable lead, with some support for Tanz. Interestingly, it seems that this is also the area where Max Silverman seems to be running strongest.
Is Tanz even bothering to campaign west of the Allen Expressway? Here there's a lot of socially conservative Italian-Canadians who would likely be responsive to the Conservatives. Polls have shown major gains for the Conservatives among Catholic voters. Yet Tanz seems mainly interested in winning the orthodox Jewish community. Maybe it'll happen mainly among Catholics in the 905 belt.
22/06/04 Full Name
Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
Replacing Maurizio Bevilaqua as King of the Martin Grits, Joe Volpe has been the godfather of the Liberals here for years, running the backrooms and its many electoral decisions for a long time, until he hit the wall called Perth-Middlesex with his invented relation Brian Innes. That blow to the then-PCs was the first of many since and it hasn't stopped at all during the Paul Martin era, coming right to his doorstep in the form of Bernie Tanz, the Conservatives want this seat but the NDP running another young kamakazi isn't going to help due to his grand inexperience. It is indeed true is that Tories own from the east of Bathurst and Grits to the west, Eglinton-Lawrence will be the closest race between these two in the inner 416 but unless his past wrongs come out of the closet to bite him in the butt, it will be Joe's to lose.
17/06/04 NC
Email: [hidden]
Volpe not having a Martinesque web-site is not surprising at all. Volpe has been successful in this riding for one reason: Joe Volpe.
15/06/04 balk
Email: [hidden]
There's more Conservative support than you might think in the Lytton Park area.
10/06/04 416 Insider
Email: [hidden]
Tanz is making a respectable run but Volpe should have enough to hold on. I think it is interesting, however, that Volpe's webpage is not Martin heavy. It's really a sign of the times.
08/06/04 Mike
Email: [hidden]
With Tories to the east of Bathurst, and Grits to the west, Eglinton Lawrence is anyone’s game.
06/06/04 Mike
Email: [hidden]
With the part of Eglinton Lawrence that lies east of Bathurst traditionally voting blue, and west of Dufferin red the riding would seem to go to the candidate who drums up the most support in the opposition's areas. While Volpe's landslide victory in 2000 was over a geographically similar riding, it was also over a divided right, and won while the Liberal party had a significantly cleaner record; thus, it is likely that now the right is united, and the Liberals are scandal plagued it will be Tanz who gains the necessary voted in Volpe's regions.
06/06/04 Cory Martin
Email: thatcanadianguy23@yahoo.ca
Well the NDP finally name their candidate in this riding. 18 year old Max Silverman, an upcoming grad coming out of Northern Secondary School. This riding will be staying Liberal for sure after this election.
02/06/04 MSH
Email: [hidden]
Not the safest Liberal seat in Toronto, but certainly one of the safest. The NDP is not a factor here and wouldn't be even with a stronger candidate, and the Conservatives are out of touch with a large part of the electorate. Can go Tory only if the voters completely forget the damage done to Toronto by the provincial Tories. If this one were to go Conservative it would be as big a shock as seeing St. Paul's go Tory.
27/05/04 A.C.D.
Email: [hidden]
Face it people. As long as there are still European immigrants from the Mediterranean, and there is a candidate of that nationality who happens to be the same, they will always vote Italian. Let's break down the neighbourhoods. Lawrence Heights community has a high concentration of blacks and immigrants from East Africa. Majority Either they won't vote or can't vote. So that cancels that out. Bathurst St has high Jewish community. As rich and prominent as they might be they are still a small factor. The high concentration of Flipinos in the community, will vote Liberal because it is has been known as the Catholics party. Then you have those who are rich between Bathurst and Avenue rd. Traditionally will be mixed between Conservative and Liberal. Finally you have the old european immigrants, particularly Italians between Allen rd and Caledonia. This is where Volpe is well known in the community and where the majority of votes will come from. So those who will vote for nobodies like Tanzen are just wasting their vote.
26/05/04 Dave Leavitt
Email: [hidden]
Barring a stunning collapse by Volpe, Tanz won't win this riding. While this riding traditionally has an above average turnout, it is going to take a lot to overcome the apathy that seems to have set in. Both Volpe and Tanz's offices are right in the heart of the riding (near Bathursts and Lawrence), and both are clearing trying to get out the orthodox vote. However, Forest Hill and Eglinton West village are becoming more integrated and the riding does stretch to the Allen expressway, meaning that you encompass the highrises which have been a boon to new immigrants who can not afford to live downtown. With his blandness and his ability to not say much, I think Volpe is gonna get this one again, unfortunately.
25/05/04 Dan
Email: [hidden]
This riding could conceivably go Conservative one day but certainly not any time soon. Bernie Tanz is a weak candidate at best. His appeal in the riding is severely limited to a small group within the Jewish community. The vast majority of the Jewish community here votes Liberal and won’t be won over by Tanz making a few pro-Israel comments. On the other end of the spectrum we have Max Silverman. If the Conservatives are to ever win in this riding the NDP are going to have to take votes away from the Liberals. That’s not going to happen with Max Silverman. He’s just a mouthy 18 year old kid who’s accumulated more political baggage in his short life than most politicians do in a lifetime. He won’t be able to take a single Liberal vote away from Volpe and if he doesn’t keep his mouth shut he could conceivably drive traditional NDP supporters to the Liberals or the Green Party. Either way, against these two weak candidates Volpe won’t have any trouble being re-elected.
25/05/04 M.C.
Email: [hidden]
The biggest problem for Bernie Tanz is that no one in the riding seems to have any idea who he is. Even worse, no one seems to care who he is. Tanz’s only involvement in the community was a failed run for city council in 1994. The Alliance/Conservative party hasn’t been able to generate any interest in this riding and their brand of right wing extremism isn’t going over well with the riding’s large Italian community.
Volpe on the other hand has been working extremely hard for the riding and the city of Toronto since joining the cabinet. The Toronto Waterfront project and the new Varsity stadium are just two examples of what he’s accomplished in only a few short months. He won’t have any trouble being re-elected as the community acknowledges his hard work.
18/05/04 Mike
Email: [hidden]
Apparently, Volpe is considering not running again. (I believe it ahs something to do with family matters) If this is the case, Tanz has a great shot for an upset. Although this riding has usually gone resoundingly Liberal, many working for Tanz say the commmunity has been more than receptive to the Conservative cause, apparently garnering a ton of lawn signs. On top of this, Tanz is quite well funded-- the same can not be said for Volpe, who ahs eben really slow out of the gates.
13/05/04 W.R. Allen
Email: [hidden]
I had a detailed look at the poll-by-poll results in the riding. A.S. is right to point out that the most Conservative areas were the most Jewish - notably the most Orthodox areas, while affluent Allenby and Lytton Park went solidly Liberal. Overall, Korzen probably got about 40% in the Jewish areas.
That may sound like an earth-shattering trend, but it really doesn't tell us much regarding the federal election. Korzen was basically a single-issue candidate who targeted the Orthodox Jewish community. Eglinton-Lawrence arguably has the largest Orthodox community in the GTA. Even then, Colle still won, and Conservatives fared much worse in the largely Jewish areas of St. Paul's and York Center (where the vote wasn't different across the whole riding). As for municipal politics, it's a different ballgame. Tory likely won the Jewish vote, but it also looks like the Italian-Canadian vote went around 1/3 Tory, 1/3 Miller, 1/4 Nunziata - in other words about 60% went for right-wing candidates. I haven't looked at 1995, but a lot of the Italian-Canadian vote went to the Conservatives in the 1999 provincial election, at a higher proportion than the Jewish community. Yet no one says there's going to be a realignment for Italian Canadians federally, and I think one can say the same for Jews.
I don't know who Bernie Tanz is. But if he's a social liberal, it should be an interesting race because Volpe is a social conservative.
12/05/04 Rev'N
Email: [hidden]
Eglinton-Lawrence, which has a very large proportion of aware voters, is ticked off. Volpe might be wise to take heed of what his colleague, Dennis Mills, said last week, when he acknowledged that in this election he's in for "the fight of a lifetime"...because with Bernie Tanz determined to take Volpe down, those words apply aptly to HIM.
10/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Solidly enough Liberal, but not as much as it appears--it gained a big chunk of WASPy North Toronto from St. Paul's in the 90s. In pre-1993 terms, this eastward shift of gravity would've made Eg-Law much more marginal; and even if Joe Volpe's now the King of the Martin Grits in the 416, his brand of Italo-Liberalism has always seemed a little displaced east of Bathurst. (Curiously, his provincial counterpart Mike Colle feels more at home across the riding--perhaps because he comes off more as a municipal politician writ large.) Therefore the Tories aren't all that out of line in targeting the seat--or the Jewish demo's solar plexus. (With a "community" candidate, the best '03 Ontario PC polls were the most Jewish; and in the mayoralty race, John Tory scored especially well here, too.) Still a long shot, though, esp. w/Jewish NDP and Green candidates blurring the picture. Sometimes, ethnicity counts.
08/05/04 W.R. Allen
Email: [hidden]
I don't think the Conservatives stand a chance here. They'll be lucky if they win anything in the GTA. Furthermore, the Jewish community is historically overwhelmingly Liberal. While there may be somewhat of a rightwing swing post 9/11 - it's not going to result in a massive realignment. Evidence from the US, where the rightwing swing in the Jewish community is much more evident than it is in Canada, showed Kerry running well ahead of Bush, 59-31.
Prediction: LIB 62%, CPC 23%, NDP 12%, others 3%
27/04/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
Keep in mind that a strong Conservative candidate with good links to the Jewish community will have a chance. I agree that Volpe is favoured, but Bernie Tanz does have a chance with a good trend.
26/04/04 Not Non-Partisan
Email: [hidden]
Volpe is a nobody. Minister of What? Just another former Italian Alliance member dining out on decades-old reputation in the Italian community. Because he stole Maurizio Bevilaqua's seat at the Cabinet table shouldn't create the assumption that he has some perceptible credentials that he didn't have before. Bernie Tanz is a solid, well financed candidate. I watched when he ran for Council in the '90's and while he didn't win, he put on a hell of a show! Any sort of national CPC trend and it's -- advantage Tanz!
17/03/04 RWA
Email: [hidden]
If Volpe won this riding handily before he was the top Ontario minister, he'll have an easy ride this time as well.


Submit Information here - Soumettez l'information ici
Return to/retournez à - Provincial Index/Actualité provinciale
Return to/retournez à - 2004 Federal Election Prediction/Prévision de élection générale 2004

© 1999-2004 Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com - Email Webmaster