Election Prediction Project
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Beaches-East York
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
8:54 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
11:31 AM 6/27/2004

Constituency Profile
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Roger Carter
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Peter Davison
Parti Marijuana Party:
Daniel Dufresne
Miguel Figueroa
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Maria Minna
Nick Nikopoulos
Edward Slota
Peter Tabuns

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Beaches-East York (97.9%)
Hon. Maria Minna
Don Valley East (1.9%)
Hon. David Collenette
Scarborough Southwest (0.3%)
Tom Wappel

2000 Result/Résultats:
21,905 53.22%
8,449 20.53%
5,574 13.54%
3,728 9.06%
1,506 3.66%

Beaches-East York
(194/211 polls, 71336/75135 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Don Valley East
(4/194 polls, 1362/71221 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Scarborough Southwest
(4/202 polls, 183/67251 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Pete Van Moerbeke
Email: [hidden]
The final push and e-day organization will decide this race, but Layton is finishing his campaign in downtown Toronto, and NDP morale on e-day will be through the roof as the dippers have a chance to sweep the lakeshore. I call this one for Tabuns.
23/06/04 RD
Email: [hidden]
I have been surprised at the number of NDP signs in the East York end of the riding. While the Minna signs are most numerous in East York, the fact that the NDP signs are close in number here indicates to me that Tabuns will win on E-Day -- the NDP strength here is higher in the Beaches end of this riding (and I haven't been around the Beach recently to double-check -- but the north-south trend that has been here for years must still be here).
21/06/04 Paul Ellis
Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
Peter Tabuns may not be the best Beaches-East York could give, but even with the Communist leader running in their neighbourhood, the NDP will be on top here. Maria Minna may not even get her own ballot, if she still hasn't yet figured out which district she is supposed to vote in, but who would ever know maybe she is a closet kNeeDipPer and voted for Jack Layton himself in the municipal election before last. Michael Prue, like most New Democrat caucus members at Queen's Park, holds his own and will be the reason for it going Orange, especially since they won't be making government and although the inheritance tax proposal gives the Nystrom new direction towards fiscal conservatism a big dump as the New Democrats take a sharp turn left.
20/06/04 O'Susanna
Email: [hidden]
I agree with Hubley in that NDP MPP Michael Prue is a great guy --regardless of party stripe. He did a lot of good work as Mayor of East York. NDP councillor Janet Davis did a lot of work BEFORE the Civic election; many of us would like to see the same level of work now that she has actually been elected.
By contrast, Peter Tabuns has not been nominated long enough to 'work the riding' like his other counterparts. By the way, isn't he the clown who had the Toronto Board of Health boycott Swiss Chalet because it was owned by Tories and therefore, harzardous to one's health? If he is, do Beachers and East Yorkers really want that kind of logic representing them?
By default, Maria Minna.
18/06/04 AndrewB
Email: [hidden]
The NDP supporters who hang out on this site also predicted a "massive win" for their party during the 2000 election. How wrong they were. NDP supporters tend to be much more vocal about their choice than Liberal supporters. This will go to Maria Minna.
17/06/04 Alix James
Email: [hidden]
Just a few more notes on the sign battle in B-EY: along Woodbine itself it is pretty red: a few Tabuns, but they appear to be more "renters" as opposed to owners. I've noticed that most business also have more than one sign, and a few have all three. My guess is that they don't want to alienate any potential customers. And just tonight I noticed quite a few Tory signs east of Woodbine along O'connor, so maybe its picking up there.
17/06/04 Not Non-Partisan
Email: [hidden]
I've been watching this one closely and I don't think Tabuns can catch Minna. She has him "outsigned" and the wealthy in the Beach and in Parkview Hills are simply not going to vote for the NDippers. Jack behaved badly in the debates and surprisingly has little traction here. Look for the NDP to have less than 20 seats nationally.
16/06/04 C. Hubley
Email: [hidden]
I still predict NDP win, but disagree that "the NDP's decisive victory in B-EY in last year's provincial election indicates that they have a very solid base here," it's rather that they had a strong candidate in Michael Prue. Remember, Prue actually bragged from the podium at all-candidates' meetings that the Liberals, Greens, and Province of Toronto Party had *ALL* asked him to run for them. He played himself as the consensus candidate not as the NDP candidate. And he was quick to regret his involvement in the shameful slandering of Bob Hunter which Howard Hampton initiated, and Marilyn Churley never apologized for.
Never attribute to party machines what is attributable to personal character.
15/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
I dont think this riding is in question. Last time the NDP had 8 per cent nationally and more than 20 per cent here. So 17-19 per cent nationally translates to 40 plus. Most of their gain comes from the liberal. Add in the "Jack effect" which is obviously stronger here than in Sask. (The "Stop scary Harper" stuff should keep the Libs close only because some voters don't know the Tories don't contend here, or don't understand the voting system... ) The Conservatives in their new incarnation do not have much here, maybe 10-15 per cent. The anti-choice stuff will not go over well here. My prediction on debate day : NDP 44 Libs 33 Cons 12 Greens 7
14/06/04 Matthew
Email: [hidden]
Although I posted a "No Opinion" back on 27/03/04 (scroll down screen to see it) thinking it was too close to call, I'm now going to put my odds on Peter Tabuns who I think will just be able to squeak by. At first, I thought alot of Beaches-East York NDPers were going to volunteer next door in Toronto-Danforth to help get leader Jack Layton in. But now, Jack is in a comfortable lead over incumbent Dennis Mills, so the NDP can put its effort into other ridings like B-EY. Some of my neighbours nickname Minna as "the ghost" for her visual absence in the community. Many of my neighbours don't even know who the current MP for Beaches-East York even is. Not to say Minna doesn't have her support, as I'm sure she has devoted volunteers and supporters. However, its looking less and less likely that the Libs are going to hold a majority gov't (or even a minority) and with the national and provincial polls dropping for the Libs, that may be enough for Peter Tabuns and the NDP to clinch this seat, as well as Toronto-Danforth, Trinity-Spadina and maybe even Parkdale-High Park.
14/06/04 J. Kenneth Yurchuk
Email: kyurchuk@sympatico.ca
It appears that the combination of the malaise affecting the Liberals in the Country, and in Downtown TORONTO will also spell the end of a three term tenure for Maria Minna. The Conservatives are a non factor in terms of electability, but will bleed off enough Liberal votes to the right, that The NDP should pull ahead quite comfortably under Peter Tabuns. Some significant impact by the Green Party (5 or 6%) may affect the NDP vote marginally, but their suport seems to come primarily from first time and protest voters.In addition Traditional NDP federal results in this riding have always been quite good and the riding was held for many years by Neil Young of the NDP. Finally, in the last provincial election, Micheal Prue won with a clear plurality for the NDP.
13/06/04 Alix James
Email: [hidden]
Well, I am definitely NOT a Knee-dipper, but if the sign battle in my neighbourhood is correct, it will be a Tabuns landslide. On a two minute walk south from Danforth, it is all Tabuns - about 2 dozen signs. No Minna, no Tory, no Green.
As for the signs actually ON Danforth, mostly in businesses: lets be sure here that the owners actually live in the riding. (And remember Minna got in trouble for voting in the municipal by-election [to replace Prue] because she thought she could, due to having an office in the riding. No go.
10/06/04 Ottawa guy
Email: [hidden]
Fear of the Conservatives, plus the NDP inheritance tax proposal which would hurt a lot of the potential supporters in this very well-to-do urban seat, will scare enough potential NDP voters back to the Liberals for Minna to hang on here
10/06/04 DR
Email: [hidden]
This riding has always had a strong NDP component, and I think the only reason this wasn't displayed more strongly in the last federal election was fear of a Liberal minority with no chance of accomplishing anything much. My vote was certainly influenced by this. But, I will not be making that mistake again.
10/06/04 Dave
Email: [hidden]
I already posted in here, but I just wanted to clarify that according to elections Canada, the Conservative candidate is on the ballot. Don't worry though, he'll bleed votes to the Green Party, the Marijuana Party, the Communist Party, and the Marxist-Lenninist Party... and independent candidate Edward Slota, founder of "The Global Party" (a "party" that favours some kind of Keynesian monetary reform... I think). Anyhow, as confused as I am about Slota, he seems also to be a left-winger. Unfortunately, there is no Canadian Action Party candidate in this riding. I can't wait for the local debates.
10/06/04 PaulH
Email: [hidden]
Although I would like to see the NDP take the seat, I think it's going to go narrowly Liberal. In the parts of the riding I see, the number of Minna signs has caught up to the number of Tabuns signs. (In the first week, my walk home showed Tabuns with a 20-5 lead, it's about even now)
The surge in the Conservative numbers will probably keep this seat Liberal as the missing Conservative candidate benefits from the general Conservative gains, and the eventual endorsements from the Post and Sun to vote for all Conservatives. (Only Wente's column in the Globe suggested voting NDP to remove the seat from the Liberal column) Additionally, some likely NDP voters will switch back to the Liberals if they think it will keep the conservatives out, preferring a useless Liberal to the risk of a Conservative government.
While the NDP will get some benefit from the incumbencies of Prue, Davis, and Bussin, Minna took this riding easily last time, and I can't see the NDP picking up enough anti-Liberal votes to gain the seat, unless Nikopolis himself is urging people to vote NDP.
09/06/04 Boingy
Email: [hidden]
As much as it breaks my heart to say this, I do see Tabuns taking this riding. Two things make me say this:
1) In an entirely unscientfic survey of lawn-signs in my immediate neighbourhood, I've seen nearly twice as many NDP as Liberal signs (and not a SINGLE Conservative sign, which is also interesting). Granted, this is a big riding, so one neighbourhood doesn't tell you the whole story. And, of course, signs don't automatically translate into votes, but you certainly don't get those votes without visibility. Give credit to Tabuns, he is out there with a very aggressive campaign.
2) The NDP's decisive victory in B-EY in last year's provincial election indicates that they have a very solid base here, especially south of the Danforth. Granted, its pretty ironic that a so-called working-class party like the NDP finds such strong support in a wealthy, trendy neighbourhood like the Beach, but such is the nature of the left in Canada, I guess...
Anyhow, that's my prediction. It'll be tight, as Minna is certainly no pushover, but look for a narrow NDP victory here, with the Liberals a close second and the Conservatives a distant third.
07/06/04 CJ
Email: [hidden]
A grapevine tells me that as of sometime yesterday, the Conservative Candidate still hasn't rounded up enough signatures to get on the ballot!
Combine that will a lacklustre showing from Minna the past two years, and things are looking rather orange around here. From my point of view, I had an unhappy surprise this spring after dealing with Minna's office regarding some legislation last fall. If others have had similar experiences, then she's going to get flattened.
The only thing I can envision saving her is if the Conservative candidate screws up and doesn't get on the ballot. I figure there is a small but committed "pro-conservative, anti-NDP" vote everywhere (everybody always gets SOME votes) but if there is no candidate, they may swing Liberal to make their anti-NDP statement.
We'll know by Wednesday if Nick makes it in under the wire.
07/06/04 416 Insider
Email: [hidden]
Did a tour of the riding the other day and it looks very close. I don't think Tabuns will be hurt by the Green Party, since people who vote Green know his record on the environment.
But this is a referendum on Minna and has nothing to do with Tabuns' green past. It's tough enough that the Liberals are on the defensive right now, but Minna has to defend her record as a cabinent minister and then try to explain the municipal voting fiascal a few years ago.
NDP Gain, but damn close.
04/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
Well, NOW has called it. Apparently the Liberal machine has abandoned hope in four downtown ridings, including this one, for better luck elsewhere in 416. Jack Layton's coattails are fairly long, south of St. Clair Ave anyway....
03/06/04 MSH
Email: [hidden]
It will take a huge shift of the electorate to move this one out of the Liberal camp, but if people are sufficiently frosted it may just happen. In that case the NDP will be the beneficiaries; the Conservatives will suffer from the anti-Harris/Eves tide evident in last year's provincial election. If the election is really close the impact of the Greens may settle this one.
03/06/04 Mull Mole
Email: [hidden]
One Peter certainly outshadows the other as Mr Tabuns offers up one stop shopping as a Green, an experienced city councillor with good old fashioned meat and potatoes credibility. As in the provincials, Beaches-East York will go NDP, the three majors scrapping at each other, the Greenies dividing not conquering. Still an NDP win.
03/06/04 Dave S
Email: dsimms@arvotek.net
I have to change my prediction from a slim Liberal win to a slim NDP win. Tabuns is winning the sign battle. He's a better speaker and Liberal Party popularity is dropping. The Green Party doesn't seem to be actively campaigning. My revised prediction is NPD 42%, Liberal 38%, Conservative 14% and Green 6%.
02/06/04 Cory Martin
Email: thatcanadianguy23@yahoo.ca
Wow! I am surprised to see how many NDPer's are predicting an NDP victory. Yes it will be close but don't count your chickens before they hatch.
02/06/04 Andrew S
Email: [hidden]
Driving down Danforth through this riding this morning I couldn't help but notice about 20-25% of storefronts had a sign in the window for Minna. There was one front with a CPC sign (out of maybe 200-300 fronts I went past) and one with an NDP one. I (along with three other partners) run a small business in this riding and when the idea of election signs came up, we all agreed that you don't want to risk alienating your customer base by endorsing political candidates unless they're a lock. With such rampant endorsement of Minna by small businesses, I have to believe she's on the way to victory, if she's not hugely popular, a lot of storeowners are probly making a bad business decision in endorsing her.
01/06/04 C. Hubley
Email: [hidden]
A weak NDP prediction. "This is the kind of riding where even PCs will vote NDP to defeat the Liberal." Yes. Also, this is one of only two ridings in Toronto where a big chunk of people primarily vote based on environmental positions (the other being Toronto-Danforth). In the 2001 Beaches East York provincial byelection Michael Prue bragged (rightly) that he had the Liberals, NDP, Greens and Province of Toronto Party all asking him to run first, before the Liberals, Greens and P416 nominated their own candidates. The Liberals chose Bob Hunter! It was a complete love-in on the stage and against the PC (who took only 10% of the vote in the end), until Howard Hampton dragged Prue and Churley into a scheme to slander Hunter. This cost the NDP big as a party, but, with Prue and Tabuns stumping, it's hard to see the Greens getting more than a token 1000-1500 votes despite their surge, and anything more than that will be Red Tory votes from those few who realize that Green Party is Red Tory in Ontario: fiscally conservative, socially liberal, grassrootsy and such.
This or Toronto-Centre is the third riding the NDP want after Jack's and Olivia's. They also want Michael Shapcott in Toronto-Centre Rosedale but that's a tougher fight, and Peggy Nash in Parkdale-HighPark but that's near hopeless. David Miller stumping for all five could make the difference. But those five might be the only NDP seats coming from TO.CA
29/05/04 Dave
Email: [hidden]
This seat will go to the NDP or they will win no seats in the GTA (and that seems doubtful). The riding association is geared up after the October election where the NDP incumbent kept his seat with over 50% of the vote. Furthermore, my dad voted for the PCs in this riding last election and this time he's voting NDP. While I have some respect for Maria Minna, people in this riding have little respect for Team Martin.
27/05/04 MTC
Email: [hidden]
I live in the south part of the riding and just have a feeling the NDP and Tabuns could take this seat. Nothing to really base this on, just "word on the street".
26/05/04 OneandOnly
Email: [hidden]
Maria Minna will win this election hands down. Despite what many of the traditional N-Dippers who loiter this site may think (if you don't beat your own drum...), Minna is ALWAYS available in her riding. She is home more times than she is in Ottawa. No local legacy? Minna's riding has one of the highest rates of new immigrants in Canada. I firmly believe that New Canadians are a gift to this country, and by helping them gain citizenship, Minna has established her long tradition in the riding. She supports same-sex marriage, she supports gun control, and she supports health care. Being a very left leaning Liberal, why on earth would you vote for an opposition member when you can have someone at the table???
25/05/04 Dare
Email: [hidden]
Peter is far from perfect, his council days were a long time ago and he frankly botched the smoking ban in 97. It ended up being dropped after a sizeable amount of civil disobediance.
That said, Peter to date is the most credible candidate Beaches-East York has ad probably will interms of experience and background. I am not overly familiar with Maria Minna, but commentary from many locals I've spoken to has not been kind. She seems to be a bit of a absentee landlord. I lived in the riding for two years seen nothing of her, except some glossy householders that grind out the party line.
So I'll put my money on Peter - it will be a tight race - but he'll win in the end.
25/05/04 P Hunter
In response to an earlier post, there is considerable animosity between Maria Minna and Warren Kinsella. Remember the municipal by-election voting scandal two years ago that cost Minna her cabinet post? It wasn't the opposition that tipped officials off that she voted, it was Kinsella. Minna will openly you Kinsella had his eye on her seat for some time, especially with him suddnely out of work upon Chretien's retirement.
Chretien hand-picked Minna to run back in '93, but I suspect her loyalty went out the window when she was turfed from cabinet. I'm sure she and Martin are more than happy she's running and thus keeping one of Chretien's most loyal deputies out of caucus. Minna is shrewd and tough. Kinsella is a weasel,
This one will be close, but Minna is pooular in the community and her social record is unquestioned. She'll will win one of the closest races in the country
25/05/04 DS
Email: [hidden]
Growing up in this area, I am very aware of its NDP heritage, municipally(Bussin), Provincially(Prue) and Federally(Neil Young, before Minna).
With the NDP polling above 20% in Ontario, and the the fact that residents travel through Jack Layton's riding to get downtown, this should be a pick-up for Tabuns and the NDP.
The NDP riding association has recently been reingvigorated with members from the upscale SOuthern part of the riding(The Beach) and the Northern reaches(former East York) coming together thanks to a strong provincial campaign from Michael Prue. Minna has been a ghost since her mini-scandal a few years back. Tabuns needs to take advantage of her slip and NDP momentum in the area.
23/05/04 David
Email: [hidden]
I live in the riding and I'm quite impressed with the NDP candidate Peter Tabuns. His record as a former city councillor and environmental activist will help him in a riding with deep NDP roots. Current MP Maria Minna, despite her incumbent status, has little profile in my area of the riding. With the strong NDP team in place from the recent provincial and muniicpal election and with NDP leader Jack Layton running next door in Toronto Danforth, this should be an NDP gain from the Libs.
23/05/04 Ron
Email: [hidden]
It seems incredible, but even as weak a candidate as NDP Peter Tabuns can defeat Maria Minna in this riding. I disagree that the Conservative supporters will support the NDP to defeat Minna, even strategically. Even though the Conservatives never do well here, the supporters of the new party would find it very hard to stomach voting for either of the two far-left candidates Minna or Tabuns. The small amount of Joe Clark Tories in the riding could drift into the Liberal camp and help Minna though. Still, the NDP probably gets this one.
19/05/04 Victor A.
Email: hombresvic@hotmail.com
This is one of those ridings that could go either to the NDP or the Liberals, it's really too close to call but given all that I have seen and heard up until now this will be one of the three ridings that will choose NDP in the city of Toronto. Why?? an above average candidate, popular NDP leader just one riding away, NDP representation on the provincial level but having said that it'll be a very slight margin, Beaches will vote heavily NDP, parts of East York that comprise this riding will vote Grits. Overall, Beaches-East York, along with T.-D. and T.-S. will be the NDP gains within Toronto.
/05/04 E. Andrew Washburn
Email: [hidden]
I'm putting this in the too close to call column for now. This will be very close between the NDP and the Liberals. The NDP won here in 1988 in a very close election. The question is, is the NDP as strong now as it was in 1988? I think there is a definate possibility. There can be many parallels linked between both 2004 and 1988 in my opinion when it comes to the NDP at least. This is one to watch on election night! 20% of the vote is diffinate winable range for the NDP
13/05/04 J. MacIntosh
Email: [hidden]
This will be reasonably close, I think, but in the end I am predicting an NDP victory here. The Liberals are ripe to have 25-40 of their Ontario seats peeled away in this election cycle, and Beaches has a lot of attributes that render it a "natural" NDP riding. If the national tide is toward administering a stiff rebuke to the NGP (Natural Governing Party) and the local trends lean toward the NDP this will be one of 3-7 seats in the GTA, where the NDP will be serious contenders.
10/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Given how she's a bit of a blemished/shopworn Chretien-era relic, it's odd that Minna is running again; I'd have expected her to be jettisoned (via a patronage appointment, or anything) on behalf of a "Martin" candidate...or even area resident Warren Kinsella? Instead, Kinsella's (verbally, at least) given up in exasperation on his own party. But on behalf of whom? As the most likely elected Toronto NDPer not resident of the Layton-Chow household, Tabuns is a credible yet problematic "star candidate", with the kind of prickly Dippers-you-love-to-hate reputation that evades MPP Michael Prue--on the other hand, he's certain to benefit from Prue's golden support in the East York areas where the NDP *ought to* fare most poorly. Yet then again, if there's a CPC upsurge, there's a strong if token Conservative base here (with the best 90s Reform results in the former City of Toronto) that's less likely to vote Tabuns in order to stop the Grits. In the wildest fantasy of a John Turner-scale Liberal humiliation coupled with a Tory surge that even extends deeply into the 416, this is the kind of zone where the Grits could even wind up *third*...and for the record, thanks to a throwaway candidate and Prue's popularity, B-EY had, at just under a quarter of the vote, Ontario's worst Liberal result in 2003's provincial election.
13/04/04 Not Non-Partisan
Email: [hidden]
Maria Minus. She's been the member for eleven years and there is no local legacy whatsoever. Tabuns has no connection to this riding having been City Councillor next door. Nobody is going to remember him here, even with Greenpeace credentials. Layton got thumped here when he ran for mayor in '91, so his coattails here are short. Tory nomination tomorrow night -- four candidates. This has been the closest three-way race in the country as recently as 1974 and clearly could be again -- if the national trend goes to the Conservatives.
13/04/04 Scott G.
Email: [hidden]
Given his involvement with Greenpeace, would it be going out on a limb to say Tabuns will pick up votes from people inclined to vote Green? This alone won't make a difference, but I assume that from his environmental and local government experience, Tabuns, like Jack Layton, has some understanding of the problems facing large cities, the implications those problems have for the country as a whole, and the ways that senior levels of government can ignore / exacerbate / address those problems. And I would guess that many people in central Toronto are skeptical about Paul Martin's commitment to his "new deal for cities." They'll want to elect vocal civic advocates, and the NDP is most likely to fill that role (and maybe even have some influence in the event of a Liberal minority).
29/03/04 Dave S
Email: dsimms@arvotek.net
I predict a close Liberal win. The Adgate scandal has definitely hurt, but Mina is quite popular and well regarded by the constituents. Most of the traditional conservatives here are angry about the PC/Alliance merger and will probably be voting Liberal. The NDP canidadate, Taubans is articulate and may have some name recognition as a former city councilor but he doesn't live in the riding and his reputation as a bit of a flake won't go over well in the old East York areas of the riding.
27/03/04 Matthew
Email: [hidden]
Simply put - the NDP and Liberals are going to have a race to the finish line in Beaches-East York. A smart man would not put odds on this race. Who ever has the best campaign team and the best organizing will come out the victor. This is definitely a riding to watch for in the next election.
24/03/04 S Meades
Email: [hidden]
I find it odd that despite all but one prediction being for the NDP (the other lonely prediction being for a tossup), this riding (and others in similar circumstances, such as Toronto-Danforth, Trinity-Spadina, Windsor-West...) is still considered a toss-up, while ridings like Scarborough Rouge-River and others, with but a sole prediction, are being assigned to the Liberals. So much for "wheighing" the submissions...
Anyhow, I'd be one of the 90% who think this riding will go to the NDP. Peter Tabuns will out perform the scandal plagued Minna. Which is kind of unfortunate, given the dwindling number of women MPs.
19/03/04 MJ
Email: ryan_593@hotmail.com
NDP steal. Maria Minna is famously noted for being overheard saying that not even her sister will likely vote for her. That isn't good. I think she knows that she's a weak incumbent. Combine this with NDP coattails from Jack Layton, and you've got a New Democrat in Ottawa representing Beaches-East York.
19/03/04 DL
Email: [hidden]
It is ludicrous that this seat would predicted as Liberal at this stage. It is at least a tossup. The NDP has won this seat federally and provincially many times before, The NDP vote in inner Toronto will probably quadruple with the Layton effect, Minna is now damaged goods having been dumped from cabinet by Chretien after a variety of scandals and that is just the beginning of all the reason I can see an NDP win here.
17/03/04 WD
Email: [hidden]
If the NDP gets at least three seats in Toronto, as most people expect, this is the third. This is the kind of riding where even PCs will vote NDP to defeat the Liberal.
17/03/04 Price
Email: [hidden]
Maria Minna had better get her resume updated. She is a weak incumbent, with a damaged reputation, and Beaches is one of a trio of GTA seats that is definitely headed into the NDP camp. Peter Tabuns may not be best possible candidate the New Democrats could have nominated (Frances Lankin or Mike Prue would take this seat without breaking a sweat), but he's a good politician, with a successful local track record, and a profile (ex-city councillor, greenpeace) which will help him sweep the southern end of the riding, overcoming any residual advantage that Minna might be able to retain in the East York portion of the seat. A comfortable NDP win.
17/03/04 Craig
I think that the Layton factor has put this riding in play as well. The NDP will definitely contend and could come out on top. However it is certain not a given at this point, it is very difficult to call and should be close. The NDP candidate here would be a key ally to Jack Layton, but Paul Martin is sure to do everything to keep this and other close Ontario seats as they could be the difference between majority and minority. Predicted results: Liberal 41%, NDP 40%, Conservative 14%, others 5%.
17/03/04 Patrick Webber
Email: [hidden]
A combination of factors makes this riding open to the NDP. First, there is a significant base of NDP votes here to build upon, even in the disaster of 2000. Second, the NDP is running a well-known former city councillor, Peter Tabuns. Third, the Liberal incumbent, Maria Minna, will suffer from the scandal that she faced a couple of years ago. Fourth, Jack Layton's presence next door in Toronto-Danforth will aid other New Democrats in Toronto, allowing them to come in on his coattails. Layton will have the same effect for the NDP in Toronto in 2004 that Alexa did for the party in Nova Scotia in 1997. NDP gain.

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