Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
5:00 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
5:00 PM 6/26/2004

Constituency Profile
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Patrick Brown
Peter Bursztyn
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Aileen Carroll
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Erich Jacoby-Hawkins

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Barrie-Simcoe-Bradford (100.0%)
Hon. Aileen Carroll

2000 Result/Résultats:
17,508 48.41%
11,760 32.52%
4,895 13.53%
1,608 4.45%
396 1.09%

(148/227 polls, 68185/99471 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
Barrie had a bad unification when the Tories used dirty tricks to keep Reformer Rod Jackson out of the game and get a MPP uncle-favoured nomination for Patrick Brown, look for to pay for it with a Liberal Aileen Carroll victory.
23/06/04 opus
Email: [hidden]
I listened to just about the whole debate on Cross Country Check-up and found that Patrick Brown's performance was extremely poor. He was treating the forum more as a pep rally rather than a place to discuss ideas. Many callers, including the moderator, were frustrated by Brown's refusal to directly answer such simple questions such as "What programs are you going to cut in order to fund the tax cuts ?" While Aileen Carroll was cool under pressure and did better than Brown, the best performer was Peter Bursztyn of the NDP. Unlike Brown who relied on party slogans and exaggerations, Bursztyn was able to back up his arguments with hard facts.
It is true that this riding went to the Reform party in 1993 but that was when the riding included Bradford and the rest of Simcoe County. It's a close race but this riding is going Liberal.
21/06/04 B. Stewart
Email: [hidden]
Obviously the Liberal predictors here have some negative bias towards Patrick Brown. One reason Brown has personal popularity is because Barrie loves youth, fresh ideas and most importantly, someone who connects with voters on a more personal bases. I lived up there for a year and Aileen Carroll was never seen in the newspapers doing something out in the community. Patrick Brown was frequently.
18/06/04 Don
Email: talkcanada@hotmail.com
This criticism of Brown seems way over the top.
I listened to the audio archive of the show and find his performance to be equal to or better than that of Carroll.
The moderator was brutal - letting improper - and totally inaccurate questions to be asked - abortion protected by the Charter??? - thousands of people dying due to climate change???
75% or more of the questions were very confrontational - twisted questions posed to Brown - he did well under those circumstances.
17/06/04 1st time Liberal
I know Patrick Brown from our days together in the Tory Youth. Back then, Patrick sparred with Joe Clarke in favour of merging with the then-Reform Party. Patrick was ahead of his time in deciding to support the merger. Interestingly, however, Patrick opted to support Peter MacKay (as did I) for the leadership of the PC Party. Both Patrick and I supported Mr. MacKay even though he claimed that he was not the "merger candidate". It seems as though Patrick had flipped and now he has flopped back.
On Sunday, I watched with dismay as Patrick denied that Stephen Harper would have taken us to war in Iraq. But what is more disturbing, is that Patrick Brown also supported the war in Iraq.
17/06/04 Neal
Email: nealford@sympatico.ca
Aileen Carroll destroyed Brown and showed class? Were you listening to the same broadcast i was? The fact that Barrie is harper's hometown, and the first Ontario riding to elect a Reformer says that this one is vulnerable to the Liberals especially given the current trends.
16/06/04 ian
Email: [hidden]
As a conservative minded supporter I am glad I saw Cross Country! I was appalled by the performance put in by Brown. I would be embarrassed to be evenly remotely involved with his campaign. If he wasn't so obnoxious he would have been comical. God help us all if he is the typical Conservative candidate. My advice to the Cons in Barrie, HIDE YOUR MAN UNTIL THE 28TH.
14/06/04 OSR
Email: [hidden]
I am not a Liberal party member either but after seeing the CBC program on Sunday afternoon, everyone has now had an opportunity to see what Ben's post below was all about. Brown was destroyed in the nationally televised debate by Aileen Carroll - who demonstrated the class and substance she is known for. Not only that, the other candidates, who have no chance of winning this riding, clearly outshone him as well. Brown was by far the least articulate of the four, he looked uncomfortable and forced and he clearly had only 2 or 3 "pet" lines given to him by his handlers which he repeated ad nauseum. Other than constantly repeating what he was coached to say, he could not respond to any intelligent question. In fact, when he couldn't avoid the question (because of the increasing frustration of the audience or because Michael Enright told him he should answer the questions), his answers were factually inaccurate or absurd (for example, he said that Stephen Harper would not have supported the war in Iraq and he suggested that cutting taxes in the amount of $50 billion will not require spending cuts because revenues will miraculously increase by the same amount). If it wasn't before, it is absolutely clear now that Barrie will re-elect the far more accomplished, experienced and impressive Aileen Carroll.
14/06/04 Jen
Email: [hidden]
I just read my morning paper and am glad to see that Patrick Brown showed his true colours at the CBC Cross Country Checkup broadcast yesterday at Georgian College. Although I did not see/listen to the program, the general consensus of yesterday's audience was that Patrick failed to answer most questions put to him, and instead repeatedly predicted his party's eventual victory on election day in response to questions. Hopefully the Conservatives will not be relying on Patrick to win a seat for them. I have witnessed Mr. Brown in (non)action several times here in Barrie, and have been amazed at how much he manages to run off at the mouth, promising the world and then delivering nothing. Hopefully, that and his obvious lack of integrity (e.g. smoking ban flip-flop, sign-up of children to vote for him, etc.) will eventually turn enough people off to get rid of this political charlatan.
13/06/04 Amanda
Email: [hidden]
After Patrick Brown's rather embarrassing display on CBC's Cross Country Checkup I must say that he is his own worst enemy. Either that or his puppeteer did not prep him enough. Did he just forget that Harper wanted to send troops to Iraq or did he think the audience was stupid enough to not notice his lie. I rather think he should go into advertising for electionscanada because the only thing he reinforced over and over was that election day is June 28th. Furthermore, he did not answer as to which social programs would be axed. For those who are undecided this is a very young, inexperienced man (I use the term lightly) who is part of Harper's hidden agenda. Other than his lie about Iraq he did not answer one question as asked. This booming city cannot risk representation like that.
13/06/04 OV
Email: [hidden]
Okay, I am not from Barrie but have extensive family in the area (mostly formerly Alliance supporters.
Just happend to catch the cross country check up on NewsWorld/CBC with the Carroll/Brown/Bursztyn show and certainly got an eye-opener. While my views on Carroll are ambivalent and I had no opinion on Mr. Brown (due to knowing nothing about him), this changed within moments of hearing his glib non-sensical responses. If there was ever a candidate who appears to run purely out of the joy of cynicism and finger pointing, Mr. Brown would be it.
From the time he opened his mouth, it was clear that he had no answers to any questions (or refused to answer). He was evasive on his own position or that of his party but very capable at the blame game, everything was the fault of the big bad nasty government (yes the Liberals do have a lot to answer for).
Mr. Brown has the tenacity of a little hound nipping at the heels, it'll be interesting to see what happens when a big dog turns on him. Moreover, Mr. Brown seems to be part of a new breed of negative candidates who have little to offer other than youthful exuberance combined with scepticism which belies their age (the Liberal of course have their own baggage in incumbents such veterans Carolyn Parrish and Colleen Beaumier).
Surely, the voters of Barrie will have the good sense to take a good look at this pretender to the throne before casting their vote.
13/06/04 ndp by default
Email: [hidden]
Having watched the CBC Newsworld debate with the 3 candidates, I am left wondering what Patrick Brown's position is on same sex marriage? I understand that his leader has guaranteed a free vote--so Mr. Brown, how will you vote?
Last time I looked, the Charter guaranteed equality to all citizens but the current Conservative position appears to guarantee that the majority will dictate. What other equality (minority) rights are dependent upon the majority vote?
10/06/04 JRW
Email: [hidden]
Isn't that John Mykytyshyn running Patrick's campaign?
His fingerprints are all over this thing, and if there's one thing Mykytyshyn knows how to do... it's f*$% things up. "Non-practising lawyer"... HAHAH! Way to go JohN!
Way to go Patrick! Another opportunist goes down the drain.
Liberal win... EASY!
10/06/04 The Lobbyist
Email: [hidden]
Okay. So all of us, including it would seem, many of the Grits on the site, knew Patrick Brown when he was involved in youth Tory politics.
But folks, if you seriously believe that arrogant and hyper-ambitious individuals with shady pasts and questionable qualifications can't get elected in this country... you're fooling yourselves.
Regular EP readers: Ignore the flame war taking place on this page and read the following two posts from June 2nd if you truly want to understand the competing tensions in this riding that make it "too close to call"
1. Bear and Ape tell us how this riding might buck a Tory trend in the Lake Simcoe area. Their points about Barrie's relative "rightness" and Aileen Carroll's popularity are bang on the money.
2. Then, Sarge shows us how historically, Barrie is a true "swing" riding. He's absolutely right.
Ultimately, with various polls charting the "shock and awe" demise of the Liberal party in Ontario, I predict that Carroll's popularity simply won't be enough to arrest the swing. Even before accounting for the impact of a stronger NDP showing in the riding, I guarantee that there are 1000 voters in Barrie who are yanking their support from Carroll this time around.
10/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
In a sense, Aileen Carroll is the David Pratt of the (most broadly defined) GTA: a class-of-97 Tory-country Liberal who's climbed her affable way from backbencher anonymity to the Martin cabinet table--and is now staring an electoral Grim Reaper in the face, even though by being reduced to the city of Barrie proper, her constituency's theoretically safer than ever. But ah, the accusation/counteraccusation donnybrook on this board; does it in some way go hand in hand w/ ominously promising under-30 CPC guy candidates? (cf. James Moore) Anyway, if Ontario's Conservative-sweep dynamics are roughly Common Sense Revolutionesque, we might not only be seeing Carroll's defeat; we might be set for huge 2:1 Tory margins here and elsewhere in 905-morphing-into-705. Even against incumbents. Even against cabinet-minister incumbents. You've been warned...
09/06/04 Alex N
Email: [hidden]

The Lick's Burger Poll has been accurate for the last 4 elections in a row.
The results at the Barrie Lick's Poll as of today are:
Conservatives - 50 %
NDP - 25 %
Liberal - 19 %
Green - 6 %
06/06/04 Ben Bolliger
Email: benj_ryb@hotmail.com
i am not a liberal, but after seeing all of the candidates in action i am sure of a liberal win in Barrie, Brown is full of something, but it isnt substance, creativity or honesty. I thought the CPC might win this riding, but with Brown as a candidate, all he had to do was open his mouth and the liberals were just handed the riding!
06/06/04 RW
Email: [hidden]
Quite simply, Aileen Carroll has been one of the hardest working MPs in parliament. This is why she was rewarded with her cabinet spot, after doing an outstanding job as chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee. I have known her since I was 5 years old and went to school with her children. As a representative, she does so much more for her community than just represent it for votes, she continues to be a constituency member, not only a Minister.
It is a shame this riding is going to be even close at all because Patrick Brown should not even stand a chance in this race. He may have had an easy time winning his seat on council but this fight will be a lot tougher than he will be able to amass. As a lifelong resident of Barrie, I will say that Aileen Carroll will hang onto this seat and continue her cabinet position after June 28!
05/06/04 Sean
I saw something funny today down at the waterfront. Aileen (who says she's not worried about Patrick or the state of the Liberal party every chance she gets) was bouncing off the walls when the Mayor - who supports Patrick - introduced him to the crowd. She - who had just arrived at the event - began jumping up and down waving her arms in an attempt to get noticed. Clearly a sign of someone who is not worried. With the polls going the way they are and a hard working candidate like Patrick - its clear that on election day we're headed for a Brown victory.
05/06/04 Dave R.
Email: [hidden]
Elections aren't won or lost by how many signs you have out there. Even if they are on city property. Which, in case you didn't know, isn't permitted (or did your rule sheet get tucked in one of your law texts and become just as forgotten?) The only act of desperation I see is a transparent attempt at marketing by putting 3 or more signs on 1 piece of property. And lambasting the Power Centre with signs (focused outside the Liberal camp) isn't intimidating, it's pathetic!
05/06/04 Paul
Email: [hidden]
All these people deconstructing Patrick's bio are sounding ridiculous. One only has to look at his municipal election results to know that Patrick has the confidence of a vast number of Barrie residents. He was re-elected with one of the largest pluralities in the city's history because of his admirable record and commitment to the community- he'll do the same as an MP.
04/06/04 Full name
Email: [hidden]
I knew Patrick Brown as a young Tory, and trust me, the best thing that this guy can do is not knock on doors. That will kill his chances. However, with an ego like his, I am sure he will commit political suicide by speaking to as many people as he can. Watch this one stay Liberal.
03/06/04 HB
Email: [hidden]
Is Mr. Brown's legal counsel a practicing or non practicing lawyer?
02/06/04 Desperate on both camps
I think all the suggestions of academic misconduct are ridiculous and totally irrelevant in this campaign. They can be of two sources: certain Carroll workers feeling the crunch and getting desperate (seeing all the Blue signs around the Liberal headquarter, especially the big banner at Molson Park), or certain former enemies of Patrick from his PC Youth day coming back to haunt him (and there are probably as many of them as Patrick signs in Barrie). I think it’s probably a bit of both. One way or the other, I think they both point to the fact that Patrick Brown is registering on the radar screen as a competitive candidate.
02/06/04 Now We're Talking
Email: [hidden]
Nice to see some posts here that don't come from Patrick's campaign. This is a guy with absolutely no scruples that would do anything and say anything to get ahead. Take his flip flop on the smoking ban here in Barrie.
Also, Patrick has stated numerous times that he is one of "10 recipients of the prestigious Magna Scholarship" and that "Since 2002, Patrick has worked in the law department of a multinational corporation in the fields of labour and immigration law." Why is it that Patrick only wants the voters of barrie to know that the prestigious Magna scholarship went to him, but not that the prestigious "multinational corporation" he was working for at the time was also the same Magna? And, isn't it funny that he also supported Belinda during the leadership?
Sniff around this guy a bit more before the election Liberals, and you'll be nicknaming him Betty Granger before this is over. The word is spreading - his integrity will become an issue and he will lose.
02/06/04 Sarge
Email: [hidden]
I watch this riding with great interest and have changed my mind from my earlier post from Liberal to Too close.
I would point out however, that Mike, you are wrong. This riding does not "buck the national trend" at all.. in fact it has gone with the government almost everytime since 1979. The only differences being Tascona provincially in 2003, Owen, I belive, federally in 1980. The other famous blip was when Harper won here in 1993, but again, I point out that he won by only 150 or so votes and that was with Mike Ramsay running as an independant in protest to Laking being appointed (he garnered 500 votes) and that was also with a good chunk of very Tory Simcoe Grey.
This riding is a swing riding and hence, will go with the national mood.
02/06/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
We'd normally think this to be a likely Conservative pick up, but there's a few things going against that. First this riding is the least conservative out of all the Lake Simcoe area ridings. Second, the Tory candidate seems to be a total boob, with all those nonsense dealing with the "non-practicing lawyer stuff" (sounds like Bear's old neighbour who claimed he was a lawyer when he still hadn't finnished fourth year classes...hmm...he was from north of Toronto...). Third, and the reason why the Liberals will keep this seat, is Aileen Carroll. She is very hard working and the constituents know that. We feel that she is one of the few new cabinet ministers who is not just a Martin crony, but a trully hard working MP and deserving of the appointment. These factors will help the Liberals keep Barrie though look for close numbers this time (no more 6000 vote plurality!).
02/06/04 Editor Note
Email: election@electionprediction.org
A number of passages below are edited as they referred to one submission that contained statement of which Mr. Brown’s legal counsel assured Election Prediction Project that they are unfounded. We apologize for any misinformation that may have caused.
01/06/04 intrigued
Email: [hidden]
The saddest part of this whole race here in Barrie is that there is a race at all. Surely Patrick Brown won't be allowed to bus in a bunch of pre-pubescent supporters to vote for him on election day. Instead, he will rely on the support of local business owners to whom he is indebted as well as backlash against the federal Liberal party. Throughout this campaign Patrick has demonstrated his youthful enthusiasm but has also convincingly shown his overall lack of legitimacy as a candidate versus an incumbent cabinet minister. Sorry Patrick, but a cabinet minister you are not. For those of us who wish to punish the Liberals and Alliance/Tories, then I suggest a spoiled ballot rather than a spoiled brat.
01/06/04 SM
Email: [hidden]
Aileen Carroll intelligence and hard work were clearly rewarded when she was given a cabinet position. Yet notwithstanding that added workload she continues to make things happen for Barrie. She gives Barrie a voice that we wouldn't otherwise have and appears to understand the honour it is to represent our community in Ottawa. The people of Barrie know this. Carroll will win the seat.
01/06/04 KR
Email: [hidden]
I am delighted to have accidently stumbled accross this site. I read with particular interest the post questioning Patrick Brown's intellectual, professional and I will add personal integrity. While I am not a member of the Barrie riding, I can say with great certainty that Patrick Brown is a person who utterly lacks integrity.
The people of your riding deserve to know that this is a man who will say and do anything, with a flagrant disregard for the truth, to get what he wants. This is substantiated by the fact that he doesn't appear to be able to do anything on his own merit - not surprising - he has none. While I do not know very much about the incumbent member I have done some research and it appears that Ms. Carroll has and will continue to out shine Patrick Brown. I understand that, true to form, Patrick has attempted to run a bit of a slag campaign. Ms. Carroll appears to be too busy working for her constituents and addressing the real issus of this election to even know he exists - lucky for her!
01/06/04 Mike
Email: [hidden]
This is just getting silly. Patrick outnumbers signs 5 to 1? IF you count the thousands he put on commercial properties 3 feet apart, maybe. The commercial property owners don't often live in Barrie anyways! In the residential areas, Carroll has considerable more sign locations that Patrick. Traditionally, this riding has always been less responsive to national trends as well, so you'd be surprised to find that voter movement is minimal re: provincial budget. Finally, who cares that a few guys came to see Patrick early on in the campaign? No one will remember this by the end. He's already starting to fizzle out.
He is NOT a non-practicing lawyer, since he hasn't articled or be eligible for the bar exam. I took a year of law class in high school, am I non-practicing lawyer then?
29/05/04 Jason
I think it’s interesting that the national media, and in particular the National Post, gave so much coverage to the issue of Ralph Klein’s purported plagiarism. It seems to me that the media pays real attention to the topic of intellectual integrity and even our Conservative newspaper, the Post, will fry one of its own when intellectual integrity is at issue. It also happened a few years ago when the national media exploded over the law school grades scandal at UofT.
Also, telling people that he’s a non-practising lawyer is a lie as well – he’s not a lawyer at all.
29/05/04 alexandernuttal@hotmail.com
Email: [hidden]
Time to call this one for the Conservatives. I have lived in this riding for years and Brown is a shoo in. He is out numbering Aileen Carroll in signs 5 to 1. The Barrie Examiner released a poll last week that had him leading by 5 % already (pre -disastorous Ontario budget). As for the previous comments, this sounds like Liberal innuendo. Brown had his campaign kick off today and it was covered by the local TV station - he had in attendance the former Reform MP Ed Harper introducing him (not to mention two previous MP's and MPP's. Patrick's nomination opponnent Rod Jackson is working hard on the campaign and was at the kick-off. This is an energized, united and motivated campaign.
The party sees Brown as a star and they will do what it takes to see him in the Commons. John Baird, John Tory and Jim Flaherty have all been in the riding to boost Patrick. Time to call Barrie a confirmed Tory win. CBC did a profile on the star Barrie candidate this past Wednesday as did Globe and Mail reporter Roy McGregor on Friday. Just like the adjacent York Simcoe, Barrie will be a safe Conservative seat.
29/05/04 B. Stewart
Email: [hidden]
Just a reply about Barrie's demographics. The people Barrie is now attracting are business people who work in Toronto. They live in Barrie because they don't want to live in the 905 region with everyone else. Barrie is a city but has a small town feel to it. "Small town" people tend to either be rather Tory friendly or at least can be more easily persuaded to be. Indeed, CBC did a news blip on this riding and showed the people here feeling a mood for change as Brown and Carroll spoke with citizens. And like the Tory stock holder's belt of Burlington-Oakville-Mississauga South on Lake Ontario, this riding has big homes on Lake Simcoe (the core of the Tory support in those above ridings). So I would say that it more demographically similar to those ridings but with a small town feel.
29/05/04 R.
Email: [hidden]
I’ve been reading the submissions to this site since we had our Conservative nomination. The submissions favouring Patrick seem to come from his supporters in our party, and the opponents seem to be Liberals so far. But there are a lot of us "PC" supporters (as opposed to Conservatives) and supporters of Jackson that have kept quiet so far. I think that’ll change over the next few weeks. A lot of us have been talking and meeting, including a lot of the older Tories in this riding. We’d much rather see Carroll win than that prick Patrick. He won’t know what hit him.
27/05/04 JRL
Email: [hidden]
As the campaign opens, Aileen Carroll appears to be building toward a solid win in Barrie. Carroll's recent promotion to Cabinet and her record in the riding are particular strengths this time. With the City's rapid growth, and changing demographic and social complexion, the neo-conservative far right agenda of the local Alliance Conservatives does not seem to have as much traction as it did in years past - particularly with younger voters. Many local Alliance folks are sitting on their hands, angry over Brown's nomination scandal, and his campaign seems to have already shot itself in the foot a few times. Jack Layton's NDP platform seems too far left to soften left-Liberal support. Nevertheless the race will likely be tight with a single conservative candidate. Carroll by about 5%.
28/05/04 RGM
Email: [hidden]
I find some of these comments to be just "slightly" bias, some contributors even admitting that they have known Patrick for some time. J's remark that the Mayor owes his seat to Brown is nothing short of ludicrous, laughable even! Brown himself wouldn't believe or say that. The fact is that Brown stole the nomination from a more mature and well rounded candidate with broader support from both the Alliance and P.C. camps whom also posseses the political savvy and organization needed to beat Carroll. Worst of all, Brown did it with a bus load 14 - 18 years olds. One has to ask what their motivation was and if this is a reflection of his broader support in the community? Some of Brown's local connections are shady, as are his tactics and ethics as displayed during his nomination run and widely reported by news oulets during the high profile nomination race. I suspect and fear these qualities may be what carries the day for him. Thats politics!
28/05/04 DL
Email: [hidden]
This riding is going Conservative for a number of reasons.
1. Provincially, the sitting member is Tascona who is a Conservative that survived the Harris/Eves destruction.
2. This is one of the most conservative minded areas in Ontario.
3. Barrie never votes along media lines. Even if Harper is destroyed by Martin, they will still vote for severe tax cuts.
26/05/04 Dave M.
Email: [hidden]
I am quite confident that this riding will go Liberal again. Even had the right been united last time around, Aileen Carroll still would have won by a healthy margin. I also believe that the people of this riding are smart enough to see through the smoke screen that Patrick Brown is employing. When I read his bio and see things like "Studied at..." or "Took classes in..." I am forced to wonder, did this guy every graduate? The only reason he's come as far as he has is because he's related to Joe Tascona, and Rob Hamilton thinks he's got Brown in his pocket, so it's in his best interest to support him. I saw what kind of politics this Brown person uses when he ran against Rod Jackson (a decent individual). We don't believe in that kind of thing here, Pat. If you want to play like that, then go south of the border.
26/05/04 Mike
Email: [hidden]
I have lived in this riding my whole life, and voted Conservative up until Aileen Carroll ran for the seat. I was swayed by the incredible job she did for the Barrie public library and the MacLearen Art Centre, as well as her ability to draw industry to the area. Her dedication to this community, and the integrity she showed on municipal council was more than enough to win me over. I, like most, am not happy with the way things have gone recently in Ottawa, but Aileen's integrity has stayed well intact. Her accomplishments as minister (Iran, Haiti, Aids) show that, not only is she dedicated to this riding, but the world as well. That's the kind of person I want to represent me in Ottawa.
26/05/04 L.B.
Email: [hidden]
Patrick Brown has successfully alienated a very significant number of long time Barrie conservatives who would otherwise be very active volunteers (and generous financial contributors)in this election. Instead, this support will, without hesitation, be given to Aileen Carroll.
24/05/04 Alex
Email: [hidden]
I say it'll go blue, and here's why:
- The combined Tory vote lost by 2.5% last election, and I'm taking as a rule of thumb that this won't go down - remember, the last election was run against a much less bescandaled Liberal Party, and it was run by two guys who weren't exactly beacons of political success in Joe Clark and Stockwell Day.
- The PCs won Barrie provincially, and that is to my mind a good indicator of which seats the CPC will almost certainly win federally.
- Patrick Brown is one hell of a candidate(I know him fairly well, he's a friend of mine), not to mention quite popular locally.
- Carrol may be a Cabinet minister now, but she's still a nobody, just a nobody with a slightly bigger paycheque. This ain't exactly a leader's riding.
It won't be a fat margin by any means(barring some catastrophe for someone, of course), but it'll go in Patrick's favour.
22/05/04 BB
Email: [hidden]
The Conservatives in this riding is anything but united. Patrick Brown is a divisive candidate and nominating him was the worst mistake the Tories in Barrie can make. His team of Queen’s Park hacks won him the nomination by signing up busloads of young kids. With Aileen Carroll being such a weak MP, the Tories could have won this riding with a respected candidate. They totally blew that with Patrick Brown. Ability to fix a nomination does not equate ability to win a general election.
21/05/04 J.
Email: [hidden]
This will be an easy win for Patrick Brown. Patrick's connections through being Ontario PC Exec and former PC Youth President means a large number of young and energetic volunteers will come and help. Locally, Patrick will have Joe Tascona’s (his uncle and Tory MPP) and Rob Hamilton’s (mayor who owes his chair to Patrick) campaign establishments at his disposal. The PC/Alliance are very much united behind Patrick and will be out in mass to help him.
Patrick’s momentum will be obvious as soon as the campaign starts.
19/05/04 MFD
Email: [hidden]
Easy Conservative win in Barrie. The Liberals are reeling from the negative reaction to the Ontario budget. Barrie voted Conservative provincially and voters are feeling awfully proud of themselves right now. McGuinty/Martin are in serious political trouble. Having the most popular civic politician caring the Conservative banner only makes the Liberal headaches into heart attacks....Prediction: Conservative 61%, Liberal 31%, NDP, 7%, Green 1%.
18/05/04 E. Andrew Washburn
Email: [hidden]
This part of Ontario is very conservative, but so are the federalist Liberals. Well, they're at least right of centre. The Conservatives will win seats in this region, but I don't think Barrie will be one of them. Barrie is becoming more and more urbanized as time goes, and I think the liberalness of the City of Toronto will seep into the City. We also have an incumbent, so I really can't see this riding switching over. The PC and the CA were not able to match Ms. Carroll's numbers last election, and certainly won't do it this time.
06/05/04 Tim
Email: [hidden]
The Alliance-Conservatives will have a narrow win in Barrie. Their candidate is aggressive and, unlike many Alliance-Conservative candidates in Ontario, Patrick Brown actually appeals to the Red Tory, moderately conservative base in the riding. Aileen Carroll has been far too occupied being Aileen Carroll during the past seven years to build any sort of political base. Because of her aloofness and self importance, she has done little to solidify her wins in 1997 and 2000, which can be atributed to the Liberal's general success in Ontario in those elections. She is at the bottom of the pecking order as a minister, but she is a minister nonetheless, and this will help her. Barrie is the Alliance-Conservative's to lose.
19/04/04 B.Barnes
Email: [hidden]
Several factors need to be considered when evaluating seats like Barrie. First, a very large number of Conservatives may well defect to the Liberals all across Ontario, their numbers only tamed by the sponsorship scandal (if the election is in the fall, the scandal's impact may be muted.) It seems to be assumed by many hopeful conservative predictors that Tory voters are loyal, while Liberal voters are fickle. The electoral history of Ontario, and the country, suggest the opposite. Conservative voters (as in for the PC party) often account for the greatest swings of opinion, liberals change their mind only rarely. No matter how much people want to make out of the sponsorship scandal, this is not 1984. If anything, Liberals in marginal seats will be encouraged to do more to support the party, whereas apathy was certainly setting in before February 10th.
Secondly, white collar workers are, unfortunately for most Conservatives, the domain of the Liberal Party of Paul Martin. Professionals and the well-educated tend to vote liberal. The more professional and urbane the seat, the more the stereo-type of latte-swilling CBC watchers becomes a reality. Conservatives don't swill latte, especially since this party has roots in Reform moreso than PC, the Reform being a grassroots movement. Upwardly mobile middle-class voters do not identify with the word grassroots: ask Stockwell Day.
Lastly, the Conservatives will undoubtedly gain in Ontario, and so they should, but suggesting that any seat (even Leeds-Grenville) will be an easy win for them is pushing it. They don't have the resources to focus on Ontario, or the ground-force built up by years of being an MP, or the ground force one builds up by being the front-runner, as many of the Liberal candidates are still considered locally. Barrie has a liberal demographic, identifies more and more with the 905-type attitudes of Eves as opposed to Harris (i.e. the provincial election shouldn't be such a big factor in the consideration of how people will vote,) and has a respected MP. Liberal hold.
18/04/04 KPC
Email: [hidden]
This one is a slam dunk for the Conservatives and this riding's Conservative strength will likely assist the adjacent Tory campaigns. Brown's re-election to City Council was gigantic and a record municipally. He is the Vice President of the Ontario Conservative Party and has quite a machine. The Liberals should start looking for a patronage position for Carroll because she is going to need a new job. Also, in reference to Mr. Stewart's comment - this is especially interesting since the Barrie Mayor has endorsed Brown's federal candidacy. The new mayor is still in his honeymoon stages and this endorsement likes helps the Tory cause.
07/04/04 B. Stewart
Email: [hidden]
That is an interesting point...Rob Hamilton who was the Alliance candidate in the last election won in a landslide to become Mayor of Barrie. Barrie isn't the blue collar town it once was...it is attracting many new businesses and building many new homes for the white collar folk to live in. And from reading the Barrie Examiner, Barrie Advance (2 local newspapers) it appears Ms. Carroll, who has been hidden as an MP, is starting to come out of her shell and get media publicity, just as Adscam broke out and Patrick Brown was nominated. Does anyone else smell fear?
I could see Brown attracting a lot of votes away from other parties because of personal popularity.
07/04/04 TJ
Email: [hidden]
CP24 covered Martin's visit to Barrie yesterday and listed Barrie as one of the 12 most vulnerable ridings in Ontario.
I agree. Aileen Carroll is finished. This is becoming Conservative country.
05/04/04 Kenneth C
Email: fin_gov_on_ca@hotmail.com
Easy victory for the Conservatives. If the Conservatives can't win this seat well they are not going to have a caucus from Ontario. They have all the stars lined up. A strong candidate, a conservative Mayor, a conservatie MPP and an appetite for change in the country. The local television station did a poll three weeks ago and asked who would consider voting liberal and over 70 % said they would never even "consider voting Liberal (the New VR). My prediction: Conservatives - 49 %, 41 % Liberal, NDP - 8 %, Green 2 %. Also remember, provincially the Conservatives did better here than any either the adjacent Simcoe-Grey or Simcoe-North. The fact the local conservative membership is the largest of the four simcoe ridings speaks to the Tory strength here.
03/04/04 fin_gov_on_ca@hotmail.com
Email: fin_gov_on_ca@hotmail.com
Sarge is clearly wrong. The Reform Party which won the riding in 1993 was 2/3 compromised of the City of Barrie. And Bradford was Aileen's best area in the last election. The Reform MP was Ed Harper who was a long time City Councillor in Barrie. So to suggest he was not an MP for Barrie is off base. As for the provincial results, I worked for Joe Tascona on the provincial campaign and your provincial composition is inaccurate. Joe won 95 % of the polls in Barrie. The only polls he lost where in the area of the City his opponent represented municipally. This riding will be a big conservative victory. I rank it in the top 3 Conservative seats in the province.
02/04/04 Sarge
Email: cwakes2000@yahoo.ca
Whoa there Nellie,
Boy am I sick and tired of hearing that this riding went Reform in 1993. This riding "Barrie" did not. The old Simcoe Centre which included a lot of Simcoe Grey and Simcoe North did. This riding has gone under two redistributions since then and now only takes in the City of Barrie. Aileen won in 2000 by 7000 votes. That is a lot of ground to make up.
The fact is that by losing Innisfil and Bradford and all points in between, the Tory's lose a lot of traditional support. In fact, Provincially, if you do a quick transposition of votes, you can see that this riding would have gone PC by only 1400 votes.
While this riding may be close, it should still go Liberal by about 3000 votes.
30/03/04 Stephanie Peltz
Email: [hidden]
This one should be a easy victory for the Conservatives. I saw Brown doing commentary on CBC last week at the Conservative convention and he has a powerfull presence. His strength and the Tory roots of this riding should result in a large victory. My prediction: 50 % conservative, 37% Liberal, 9 % NDP, 4 % Green. Given the Reform Party won this seat in 1993, I am surprised you are predicting a liberal victory. Didn't the provincial PC's win massively here too ?
28/03/04 AWL
Barrie has strong conservative credentials. The riding went conservative provincially during the Harris era and held it after the Liberal landslide last October. Moreover, the Conservatives have nominated a strong, capable and popular candidate in Barrie Councilor Patrick Brown. Brown has been elected with a comfortable margin in 2 prior municipal elections and has deep roots in partisan politics within both the Ontario PC Party and former PC Party of Canada. With that being said, he will have a strong well-organized machine behind him that will be difficult to beat. Watch Barrie go Conservative.
26/03/04 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca

Having seen Patrick Brown speak, I now think Carroll will win the riding by *more* than 5%.
24/03/04 MKT
Email: [hidden]
Patrick Brown is a popular city councillor who was re-elected in the fall with a massive majority of votes. That he would move on to another level of government was just inevitable. His connections within both the Provincial and Federal Conservative parties guarantee that he will have a solid experienced team on the ground and the resources to run a strong campaign.
23/03/04 V.D.
Email: Bench_breaker@hotmail.com
Too Close. Like others, based on the conservative candidate, a sitting city councillor who has the open support of several other city councillors and other civic politicians according to info i've read. The 2000 vote was technically close with a hypothetical united right. If the conservatives end up tanking in ontario, then it can be a liberal win, not sure for now....
20/03/04 BMS
Email: [hidden]
Actually I think the Conservatives have a chance here. It's true the surrounding countryside provided much Tory support in the past but they now have a star candidate, Patrick Brown, who was the past president of the PC Youth Party (and is in his mid-20's). Since on average only 25% of people 18-25 years of age vote, he has the potential to bring younger voters to the polls to vote for him, all of whom didn't vote at all last time. Many of the CPC members that voted in favour of his nomination were in fact younger supporters; so he wins the under-estimated "youth vote".
20/03/04 KPC
Email: [hidden]
Patrick Brown who is the Conservative candidate in this riding will win. He has a good chance of winning this riding due to his profile in the riding. His uncle Joe Tascona, the MPP and the whole Tascona family will be out helping Patrick get elected. I have been his friend over a decade and he has not lost an election campaign. He always comes out on top as the winner. Patrick will win hands down and Aileen Carrol should start looking for a job and pack her bags. Give it up Aileen!!!
20/03/04 Craig
Aileen Carroll has to be thankful for the creation of the urban riding of Barrie. While the Conservatives are strong here, this fast growing area resembles 905-area ridings more than the rural areas surrounding. As a result, she should run here and hold on, although it will be close. Predicted results: Liberal 48%, Conservative 42%, NDP 6%, others 4%.
19/03/04 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca

The surrounding ridings are vulnerable, but I suspect that Aileen Carroll will be able to hold on for the Liberals. Her win in 2000 was convincing, and a cabinet promotion never hurts. Plus, the actual *city* of Barrie isn't quite as right-wing as the surrounding countryside. All signs point to a 5% win, or thereabouts.

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