Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
10:38 PM 6/22/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:23 AM 19/03/2004

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

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Blaine Armstrong
Carol Hughes
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Lindsay Killen
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Brent St. Denis

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Algoma-Manitoulin (71.7%)
Brent St. Denis
Nickel Belt (0.0%)
Raymond Bonin
Timmins-James Bay (28.3%)
Réginald Bélair

2000 Result/Résultats:
18,572 53.93%
7,143 20.74%
6,380 18.52%
2,060 5.98%
285 0.83%

(168/208 polls, 43566/53535 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Nickel Belt
(3/190 polls, 12/57476 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Timmins-James Bay
(58/185 polls, 17159/53829 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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21/06/04 Full Name
Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
Again Kapuskasing is a plus for the Incumbent Liberal in Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing for the safe Brent St. Denis despite much anger by First Nations and Metis groups over lack of action on many important issues by the government that has now grown from years to decades. Blaine Armstrong is not Bud Wildman, the Grit isn't Lester Pearson and right now the two Stars (Sault Ste. Marie and Sudbury) have headlines that are focused on the major Northern Football Conference rivalry between the Sault Steelers and Sudbury Spartans this hot summer, not this boring federal election. If Lester B. hadn't run here as a past Prime Minister, there would have been a wave of anti-Gun Registry hate against C-68 all around the Island, just go to the post office, donut shop or fry wagon in Elliot Lake and say C-68.
06/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Hold your horses. Even in light of no NDP star candidate a la Wildman or Jack Layton's possibly tarnished lustre (esp. away from the champagne-socialist inner city), I wouldn't bet the house on the eternally Liberal land of Lester B. staying Liberal--after all, much of this is anti-gun registry heartland, and that was first evidenced in the 1997 election, where the Liberal result was *below* average for the first time in many a moon. Which means, in a pungent pox-on-the-Liberal-house atmosphere, if the NDP can't get it, CPC, in a clear "Cheryl Gallant" spirit, possibly can--although the gravity shift away from Manitoulin t/w Kapuskasing blunts that Tory-steal possibility a little...
02/06/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
No NDP star candidate running here. So, like much else in northern Ontario, the Liberal incumbant is quite safe. Brent is not going to get his 53% victory this time, but should get at least 40% to 45% of the vote.
07/05/04 Olive_Branch
Email: thedevilthedevil@hotmail.com
The NDP can win this one if they field a star candidate like former Ontario cabinet minister Bud Wildman or former Sudbury MP John Rodrigues.
29/04/04 Initial
Email: [hidden]
Just to update:
Green Party candidate is Ron Yurick from Chapleau
Ron Yurick was the GPO candidate in the 2003 Provincial election. He pulled 2.28% of the vote. Awesome candidate, great guy, will gain ground.
The NDP are rumored to be nominating Carol Hughes, a probation officer from Elliot Lake that's big with OPSEU Local 604. No definite word yet, but few have come forth.
Armstrong, the Tory, is a retired lawyer from Manitoulin.
Brent, the incumbent, is just coming out of a nomination battle that he won with nearly 90% of the vote. His riding association is strong, his war chest is bulging.
Without going into the dynamic of the riding, I would say that the only parties with a chance of increasing over the last time here will be the Green Party and the Liberals. Brent will beat 50%, and Ron will probably get close to 4%. This is fertile Liberal ground.
18/03/04 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca

The Algoma region on the north shore of Lake Huron has consistently elected Liberal members since 1935 (that's longer than any other English-speaking area in Canada, for those keeping track). This is partly due to the fact that Lester Pearson served as the area's MP from '48 to '68, but the Liberal roots here are pretty deep even beyond that. Adding Kapukasing certainly won't hurt the party's chances. This should be an easy hold.

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