Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
12:00 AM 6/23/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:13 PM 18/03/2004

Constituency Profile
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Parti Marijuana Party:
Patrick Cardinal
Bloc Québécois:
Maxime Côté
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Peter Graham
Jeff Howard
Daniel Quinn
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Francis Scarpaleggia

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Lac-Saint-Louis (90.6%)
Clifford Lincoln
Pierrefonds-Dollard (9.4%)
Bernard Patry

2000 Result/Résultats:
38,915 74.00%
3,913 7.44%
3,849 7.32%
3,615 6.87%
2,297 4.37%

(164/204 polls, 68081/82252 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(23/204 polls, 7078/79962 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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20/06/04 David
Email: [hidden]
No question now that this is still a Liberal stronghold. I suspect the Liberals will win here with at least 40% of the vote. PC might make a second place showing due to (what I believe to be) weak and inexperienced candidates on the Bloc and NDP side. C. Lincoln represented well, and I think people here will continue the tradition.
20/06/04 Neal
Email: nealford@sympatico.ca
I'm not quite calling this for the Tories just yet, but with the increasing possibility of a Conservative government, even a majority, Lac-St-Louis, a riding once held by Jack's Dad, Bob Layton (PC) from 1984-1993, I think we must now look at this as a possible Tory gain.
People are angry with the Liberals, and a good portion of the Liberal vote from 2000 has now disappeared with the retirement of Clifford Lincoln, who, frankly, could have won big under almost any party banner.
The new Liberal candidate is hardly a household name. # months ago, winning a Liberal nomination here was a ticket to Ottawa, it will be MUCH closer this time, with the increasing possibility of Jeff Howard prevailing.
15/06/04 Clément Talbot
Email: ct@total.net
This MP or parts of this MP used to be held by the Mulroney's PC back in 1984-1988 (Gerry Weiner). For sure it was exceptional to have a conservative elected in this area, and was undoubtely created by the so called "Mulroney Effect". The present candidate for the Liberal of Canada is the assistant of the former MP Clifford Lincoln that is without any doubt a popular figure in the West Island of Montreal. He can be sure to be reconducted on June 28th. The other candidates are for the Conservatives a young guy, Jeff Howard, that is starting in politics, and for the Bloc Québécois, also a new guy in politics, Maxime Côté. Altough in this MP has been redivided recently, the North of our riding is a bit more francophone and I would see the Bloc get less than 10% votes, the same for the consevatives, 5% for NDP and 3 to 5% for the Green Party. If we sum the support of the opposition, Francis Scarpaleggia should get more than 65% of the votes in Lac-St-Louis.
27/05/04 Matthew
Email: [hidden]
This riding goes red all the way this time at least. In the absence of strange phenomena such as Mulroney's Alberta-Quebec Tory majorities, the Liberals are the default winners here now and forever more. The big news here, of course, is the loss of Cliff Lincoln, the well-respected incumbent. Lincoln was a vocal backbencher who often voted against party lines (generally leaning to the left of the government). I don't know who the Grits are going to inject into this riding yet, but if they make the mistake of sending in a Martin flunky who doesn't think for himself then they could be in for a nasty surprise 4 or 5 years down the road. This riding has to be given a reason not to vote Liberal, but given that reason they will send a message to the Liberal leadership by electing a Tory.
16/05/04 Stéphane Gaudet
Email: [hidden]
C'est une forteresse libérale. Grâce au vote anglophone, n'importe qui se présentant ici sous l'étiquette PLC est assuré de remporter l'élection avec une majorité plus qu'écrasante.
11/05/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
A few things I notice about this riding, it is one of the very few in Quebec that has Trudeau era like Liberal support.
Now a CPC win here is off course dreaming in technicolour, but there is an interesting longer term under current of right to centre support here. Maybe in the next election 2006 when people see that the Liberals are lieing about that the CPC is, this could be a targetable riding. A CPC candidate getting 20% to 25% I expect to be the distant second place finisher.
I think the Liberlas will win aagin in this riding, but whitout mr Lincoln, and the Tories ending up second it could be a tighter vote than most people think. After all I know many people in the riding willing to loo at the conservatives, after all the CPC are a FEDERALIST party. Also in answer to Victor. A's post, the CPC does apparently have good chances outside of Beauce, to my surprise the riding of Pontiac in South west Quebec,take a look, according to the posts, the CPC could well win there. In hindsight though with respect to David, the Liberals will still win in Lac St-Louis.
03/05/04 Victor A.
Email: hombresvic@hotmail.com
The post below from David is a real joke, it certainly indicates that he knows nothing or very little of this area and its dynamic. Why should one bother to make a comment about a riding they have no clue about, not to mention the fact that he certainly doesnt live here, especially to us - the residents of the riding - it sounds ridicoulous. First of all, ignore the historic results for the CPC, this party is between 5 and 10 % in Quebec, and would be at its highest percentage not in Montreal but east from Quebec City in the adequiste area of la Beauce, but even there the CPC support is not over 15 %.
Lac-St-Louis is around 50% anglophone and 25% allophone sure ... but the CPC is a laughing stock in Mtl, people from Lac-St.Louis are perfectly satisfied with the Grits, mind you this is a rich area and people don't care about money being spent on the promotion of Canada since people here are very attached to this country and are anti BQ/PQ/sep. movement, so even though people certainly disagreed with the way the sponsorship program was dealt with, but they understood this was to protect Canada. In fact, most anglo/allophones feel that the PLC is perfect for the protection of their rights.
Dude, this is not Alberta, this is Quebec. People here don't care about gun registry or some extra money being spent of the protection of our wonderful country, polititians from the PC are viewed as extreme because in Quebec 70 % of people support the same-sex marriage and 99% of people support public ONLY health care system.
30/04/04 David
Email: [hidden]
One of the few Montreal ridings, even Quebec ridings, were the bloc did not come First or second, the francophones are aminority and the english population could really be mad about the sponsorship scandal.The end of the vote splitting by the new Conservative party could well give this riding a Conservative member in Montreal, after all this riding did go Tory both in 84 and 88.
29/04/04 Neal
Email: nealford@sympatico.ca
Barring a Mulroney Miracle this riding stays Liberal. There is this widespread fear that voting anything but Liberal will "split the vote" and the separatists will win.
Nothing could be further from the truth, but they've bought into it hook line and sinker. It's the Liberals who have the lobsters in the pot, to borrow Jacques Parizeau's analogy.
I would venture to say, that this riding would never have gone Tory in the first place, had the Liberals chosen a local (ie: Montreal area) candidate in '84. Instead, they parachuted in the late Stan Roberts from Vancouver, and the late Bob Layton (Yes, Jack's dad) won it for the Conservatives. In '88, (an election in which I also ran), Layton and the Tories squeaked past Liberal Victor Drury (Bud's Son) by a whopping 734 votes. Layton won by the advantage of incumbency alone, methinks. in 1993 the Liberal beat his closest opponent by a greater number of votes than the total Layton (who did not run in '93) got in '88.
With the Bloc's surging popularity, the frightened Anglos in Lac St Louis will flock to the Liberals for "protection" again. The Conservative is someone I've never heard of (I'll stop short of calling him an unknown) so I'll say Libs with 65% or more.
26/04/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
This is one of the safest Liberal ridings ever. Even without Clifford Lincoln running (who was emensely popular) the Liberals will win it handidly. Francophone vote is way too small for a BQ win. And anyone who thinks the Conservatives or NDP could win here (and usually they are people who don't even live in Quebec let alone Montreal), think again. They don't have a prayer!
17/03/04 Matt
Email: [hidden]
West Island Montreal. End of story. Liberal hold.
17/03/04 RWA
Email: [hidden]
One of the safest Liberal ridings in Quebec. The Bloc finished behind both the Alliance and PCs in 2000. No trouble for the Liberals to keep this seat.
17/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
The margin of victory here is the majority of votes, more then 50%. The Liberals could elect anyone in this riding.

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