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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
6:33 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
6:07 PM 14/03/2004

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Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Sheila Fougere
Kevin Keefe
Alexa McDonough
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Michael Oddy

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Halifax (72.1%)
Alexa McDonough
Halifax West (27.9%)
Hon. Geoff Regan

2000 Result/Résultats:
17,548 41.56%
13,453 31.86%
7,487 17.73%
2,570 6.09%
1,169 2.77%

(161/212 polls, 50998/66864 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Halifax West
(62/223 polls, 19761/76789 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 J. Gould
Email: jobiooine@yahoo.com
Halifax is covered in Alexa signs. In driving downtown from Halifax Shopping Centre, virtually no signs for the Conservative are visible, and for every sign for Liberal Sheila Fougere, there are 15-20 for Alexa McDonough. With NDP support in the Atlantic provinces at 23-25% in some recent polls, Halifax will remain in the NDP column next Monday, as should other Nova Scotia NDP incumbents.
20/06/04 Janey
Email: [hidden]
Good grief! I cannot believe that:
1) Someone thinks Alexa is the more popular politician in the last three decades in Halifax. (Anyone recall Bob Stanfield? OK, he retired before then but even in death, people of all parties had a deep and abiding respect for the man. I adore Alexa but we must have some perspective here)
2) Arabic as the second language. Come on!! There are many Francophones in Halifax.
3) Fougere is winning the sign war. I see Alexa signs EVERYWHERE!
There is absolutely NO doubt Alexa will win this riding. As with Stanfield, so many people respect her for her integrety and ability.
Even people who vote for other parties have to admit she is an excellent MP.
There is some discussion that Fougere will "give Alexa a run for her money" but even the Liberal supporter who said this to me referred to Alexa as "a very classy lad".
Her high personal profile, great organization and the fact people are so angry with the Liberals and at least here in Atlantic Canada, not too sure about Mr. Harper, all point to a victory by the doyenne of socialism in Nova Scotia.
20/06/04 A. Wright
Email: [hidden]
Alexa will be safe in this riding. She has excelled as an MP and contrary to conventional wisdom, Fougere is not a strong candidate. She was HORRIBLE in the local debate... HORRIBLE... as if she was attempting to recall election slogans for the debate answers. If Kevin Little (past liberal candidate... left of centre local church minister) couldn't beat Alexa, Fougere won't. And with the tide of anti-liberal sentiment, I wouldn't be surprised if the Liberals place third behind the Conservatives as happened in 1997.
15/06/04 Mike D
I can't believe someone is suggesting there are as many Fougere signs as Alexa signs. The truth is Fougere is slipping into 3rd place in the sign war behind Keefe. Alexa signs are dominant in almost every part of the riding except the deep South End where Tory blue is prominent. The only place Fougere is competitive at all is in the West End which she represents at City Hall. If you go into the North End or Spryfield, Alexa signs are everywhere and nobody else is even close. Marilla Stephenson a panelist on local CBC-TV said early hopes for Fougere are gone, and Alexa is walking away with it. Probable Results: Alexa 50%, Fougere 25%, Keefe 20%, Green 5%.
15/06/04 Buck
Email: [hidden]
I'm not so sure that this will be the cake-walk for Alexa that everyone suspects. Fougere is winning the sign war and she is a strong, local candidate. In addition, the Conservative canadiate is running a strong and credible campaign, which may actually hurt the Liberals. If the CPC was running a weaker campaign, I would be predicting a Liberal win. My sense is that people are getting tired of Alexa and the extent to which she is constantly "shocked" and/or "appalled" at some condition that she alleges the government to have caused. While the NDP may win three of the seats in HRM, this may not be one of them.
12/06/04 E. MacKenzie
Email: [hidden]
I'd be absolutely shocked if Alexa McDonough didn't win another term. She's locally popular and has been in elective office for more than two decades now. If this were a Liberal year, they might have a chance to knock her off, but it's not, so they don't.
10/06/04 the analyst
Email: [hidden]
This seat may not be in Alexa's column yet. Though she is liked, she always got the "leader bump", the Liberals are up in polls in Nova Scotia compared to 2000 and the Liberal candidate is stronger than in 2000.
One of my colleagues said that this "seat will still go NDP, even if it might be the only one left in NS" which is far from true. Dartmouth-Cole Harbour is probably the safest seat for the NDP and they will likely do better in Sydney-Victoria than they will here.
It is too earlier to call this seat either way, but it shouldn't really be sitting in the NDP column especially when Dartmouth is not.
10/06/04 JMG
Email: [hidden]
Sheila Fougere certainly shouldn't be counted out of this one. Take a look around peninsular Halifax and you'll see that there are as many Liberal signs as NDP signs. Fougere is an extremely popular city councillor, Alexa hasn't done much of anything as an MP, and the Liberals are way ahead in the region in terms of polling numbers. I'm predicting a narrow Liberal upset on election day.
25/05/04 Voice of the Common Man
Email: [hidden]
"but let me just point out that Halifax's second language is Arabic."
According to Statscan, it's French. Arabic is, though, the most important non-official language in the riding of Halifax.
Not that it makes any difference. Barring a huge NDP collapse, this seat will still go NDP, even if it might be the only one left in NS.
24/05/04 Balon
Email: [hidden]
I'm not sure how Ex Libris arrives at the conclusion that being pro-Palestinian will necessarily hurt a candidate in a military town (last I heard we weren't at war with the Palestinians), but let me just point out that Halifax's second language is Arabic. In any case, with the NDP up in the polls, it's hard to imagine Alexa of all people losing her seat -- she's about the most popular native Haligonian politician of the last three decades.
19/05/04 Liam O'Brien
Email: lpmobrie@dal.ca
Expect a strong showing for Kevin Keefe of the conservatives -- well known among business community... but Alexa seems to have a deadlock on this one.
16/05/04 Ex Libris
Email: [hidden]
According to Election Canada's own info, the margin here was only about 3000. Also, this election will be most likely held during the campus off-season, leaving the MacDonough without either their regular student activists or those imports that are traditionally made available to the party leader. While some may argue that she has been more active in Parliament, I percieve that she has been less active in representing the riding, choosing instead to chase flavour-of-the-month causes such as the pro-Palestinian/Hamas movement - something with low appeal in an area with 25,000 in uniform. Add to this the additional million(s) or so in personal wealth that has fallen her way since the last election, coupled with a rising condo-dwelling population and Joe Clark's personal endorsement, and the Liberals might find themselves with an inside chance...provided they don't do anything stupid, like challenge her on her home issues with the same failed strategies they have employed against her in the past, and place their HQ in the middle of her power base.
06/05/04 Roger Rankin
I don't know what people mean about Alexa "barely" winning in 2000 - her margin was over 4,000 last time out. What's more, the riding has shed some weak NDP polls, gained some strong ones, while this time out the incumbent will be able to campaign fulltime rather than jetting around the country. With the NDP polling over 30% in Nova Scotia, Alexa will win this easily.
21/04/04 C. Hubley
Email: [hidden]
There's quite likely to be a strong NDP shift in this election, and nowhere will it be felt more strongly than Nova Scotia in my opinion. As Alexa is one of the few NDPers whom the Greens actually respect, she's not likely to lose many votes to them (despite their strong "spoiler" ability in some urban ridings, notably in Toronto and Vancouver, this hasn't hit Halifax yet due to lack of provincial organization and municipal players).
So the question is, how appealing is the Liberal? More than a former NDP leader who is also a former provincial NDP leader who the Greens respect? Unlikely. This is the only prediction I've made so far, and I'm pretty sure of it.
31/03/04 Shannon
Email: [hidden]
Although I think Sheila Fougere is going to be a contender, ultimately Alexa has a long-standing support base here and I think that she will most likely return to Ottawa.
29/03/04 J Cherniak
Email: [hidden]
In the last election, Alexa McDonough barely won when she was a national leader. She no longer had this advantage, and has already had some trouble connecting with voters in a local campaign. Meanwhile, local councillor Sheila Fougere - who won with 90% of the vote against 6 candidates - is out campaining consistently. The Conservatives still have not nominated a candidate, so if Sheila can pull 10% from the Conservative vote in the last election she will beat Alexa.
18/03/04 syllap
Email: sylapointe@hotmail.com
I agree Alexa has the lead here, although one shouldn't write Liberal Sheila Fougere out too quickly, she is a tough cookie, Conservatives, if they select Harper are dead here, what will deceived tory voters do, is still up in the air.....
17/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Alexa held on to her seat back when the NDP were looking in sorry shape. They're ridign high in the polls (high for the NDP anyways) and they're doing well in Nova Scotia. No NDP losses in this province.
16/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Alexa is the one who got the NDP 8 seats in atlantic canada in 1997, and while the NDP only holds 4 seats in the area, she will still benifit from that. If not for her, the NS NDP would still be a "fringe" party. While I dont think she will win with a majority of votes, I do think she will win with a fair margin. There is no question, in my mind, of this. Alexa's seat is the safest NDP seat outside of Manitoba.
15/03/04 S Meades
Email: [hidden]
Alexa is a very popular MP, the provincial New Democrats swept almost all the Halifax seats, and Alexa's performance has actually improved in the House since she's stepped aside as leader. No reason this seat should change hands.
27/02/04 Patrick Webber
I can't see any reason why Alexa should lose her seat on election night. The New Democrats are polling at higher numbers in Atlantic Canada than they posted in 2000, meaning all Atlantic NDP seats are safe.

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