Election Prediction Project
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Dartmouth-Cole Harbour
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
6:36 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
3:55 PM 6/27/2004

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Susan MacAlpine-Gillis
Mike MacDonald
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Michael Marshall
PC Party/Parti PC:
Tracy Parsons
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Michael Savage
Charles Spurr

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Dartmouth (86.8%)
Wendy Lill
Sackville-Musquodoboit Valley-Eastern Shore (13.2%)
Peter Stoffer

2000 Result/Résultats:
13,805 35.32%
13,246 33.89%
8,413 21.52%
3,488 8.92%
135 0.35%

(169/188 polls, 56912/61542 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Sackville-Musquodoboit Valley-Eastern Shore
(26/218 polls, 8631/63567 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Roger Rankin
Email: [hidden]
A battle here, but in the closing days it looks like the NDP is pulling away, if the signs and chatter around the riding is accurate -- which I think it is. An NDP hold.
20/06/04 Boag
Email: [hidden]
Savage all the way. People have forgotten why they were upset with his father and Mike now carries a family legacy. Never underestimate the power of the home-town hero in Nova Scotia. Just ask Peter McKay, Geoff Regan, Danny Graham, etc
15/06/04 Mike D
Local CBC-TV commentator Marilla Stephenson said it appears the NDP has this one due to falling Liberal support.
15/06/04 Buck
Email: gordon.fullerton@smu.ca
This is a tight race, but Savage is seen as a useless political hack, trading on his father's (I will not use good as an adjective) name. The NDP have a strong local organization and a strong candidate. The Liberals are slipping, even in Atlantic Canada, and this will turn a possible Liberal take-away into another loss. Conservatives have no chance here.
12/06/04 E. MacKenzie
Email: [hidden]
This is a tough one; retiring NDP member in a riding that, as it currently exists, would've been a very close race last time. But I agree that the Halifax area has developed loyalty to the NDP, and they are running a strong candidate in MacAlpine-Gillis. I think in the end the national anti-Liberal trend makes all the difference; remember that 2000 tally was during a strong year for the Grits, and this is anything but that.
10/06/04 J. Stewart
Email: [hidden]
Looking at signs on actual lawns not on public land there is a three way tie in the number of signs. Some areas are very heavy one way but other areas are very heavy the other and others are very heavy the third way. I think this is a minor victory for the CPC since I was not seeing as many CPC signs before.
10/06/04 Mr. Mischief
Email: [hidden]
As Archie Bunker would say: "Susan...Michael, Michale, and Michael...now that's what I call a balanced ticket!" I was in Dartmouth today, touring Canada. There weren't a lot of signs up, but there were deffinitely more N.D.P. than Liberal ones. On that basis alone, I'd expect an N.D.P. victory here.
02/06/04 J Stewart
Email: [hidden]
I feel the NDP have done enough damage (Damage by not being able to achieve anything for the riding)
Savage will never get elected in Nova Scotia without changing his last name (In my opinion)
26/05/04 J. Lawrence
Email: [hidden]
I'm calling this one a solid win for the Liberals. I've lived under 2 separate NDP governments (BC & ONT.) and believe me...economics and fiscal responsibility were just foreign words to them both. Federally, buying into the "fighting socialist alternative" rhetoric may be fun for a college-age lark, but people may start to realize that getting into bed with the Right wing for an occasional nibble of minority/co-alition government power - like they have so selfishly done at the Provincial level - may eventually, nay, *will* come at the price of public halthcare. How's this for a sound byte, Jack?: "The Revolution Will Be Privatized".
Email: [hidden]
Mike Savage has been endorsed by a number of high profile Tories in the last few days, including the former PC Party President and the former PC provincial candidate in Dartmouth East.
The NDP will retain their votes from 2000, but Savage will get a large enough chunk of the old PC vote to win the seat.
19/05/04 terry a
Email: [hidden]
There is much misinformation in previous submission not the least of which is that this is Savage's 3rd attempt. He lost a close one in 1997 when all Grits lost in NS. Even my NDP buddy across the street, already sporting an NDP sign pre-election, concedes he is a very strong candidate. Today in the Daily News a former PC Party president, Jim Connors, endorsed him. I suspect the Liberals have a lot invested here, and could win by a surprising margin. Savage is considered the incumbent in the absence of any others. Name recognition counts, Layton is weak, it was already tight and Savage has knack for getting press. Gillis may be out campaigning but it was Savage's picture we saw going door to door. He takes Dart-CH.
18/05/04 Evan
Email: evan_coole@hotmail.com
Considering the provicial leader is from this riding and support nearly doubling from the 2000 election, I'd say Susan is definitely heading to parliament after election day.
18/05/04 Bruce S.
Email: [hidden]
Savage will win this race. He is an excellent candidate with strong community ties, and voters will/should realize that they have been represented by a fine person but ineffective member in Wendy Lill and the NDP. Steven Harper will hurt the Conservative candidate and this should also benefit Savage.
16/05/04 Roger Rankin
Email: [hidden]
Dartmouth is currently one of the most-NDP leaning towns in Canada. A retiring incumbent usually means an opening for the other parties, but in this case, NDP organizational strength on the ground (remember not only are all 4 Dartmouth seats NDP provincially, one of them belongs to the leader of the NS NDP), the likelihood that NDP support is highly concentrated in Atlantic Canada (and Halifax-Dartmouth is at the epicentre of that concentration), and the fact that Susan MacAlpine-Gillis has been working the riding hard since her nomination, and you can expect the NDP to keep this one.
15/05/04 Jason
Email: J_Matheson_NS@hotmail.com
Susan and the NDP will Do extremely well in this riding. Why? you ask for one Susan has been busy talking to people since the day she was nominated. Two NDP support has increase alot since susan decided to run. Three the last provincal election shows the 4 Dartmouth ridngs as NDP. Four this will be Mike Savages 3rd time running. Enough said on that point. and my final point Susan is a great lady brings new energy to the party. I would not have supported her if I knew she was not going to win.
11/05/04 Mike D
I read that poll inside and out, there was no Metro breakdown. Just breakdowns by province. Since we're comparing to past elections: the NDP won about 15% Atlantic Canada in 2000 (4 seats), and about 24% in 1997 (8 seats). Right now at roughly 20%, there is no way the NDP will lose seats and will likely pick up one or two (first on the list is Halifax West, whether Liberals like it or not). The Alexa factor is not as important to the NDP like it was in 1997 - there is now a very strong and established provincial NDP in NS, and Jack Layton has his own strengths (in the wider analysis, is a stronger leader than Alexa).
10/05/04 poll watcher
Email: [hidden]
The poll that NDP predictors are citing is in fact discouraging for the NDP here. The Metro breakdown(4 ridings) shows Liberal 41 and NDP 37 with Tories at 21. It means Alexa,Stoffer and Regan are likely Ok ,but means Dartmouth is going heavily Liberal.As well the poll was pre-Joe Clark and all recent polls show Liberal support up in Atl Canada,and NS. As well,Savage is widely known,Gillis and MacDonald are not.The NDP are really suffering due to loss of Alexa's national profile. I suspect a strong Liberal showing in NS and NDP resources will eventually concentrate on winnable seats.That will not be here.
08/05/04 psephologist
Email: [hidden]
Any assessment of NDP chances in this riding have to take into account the loss of the personal vote of the retiring incumbent, the slim margin in the last election under the redistributed results, the fact that the sponsorship scandal has hurt the Liberals least in Atlantic Canada, and that the switch of national NDP leaders has helped that party the least in Atlantic Canada. All signs point to the Liberals having a good election in Atlantic Canada, and aside from their by-election gain in Windsor West this is the most vulnerable of all currently held NDP seats.
07/05/04 RP.
Email: [hidden]
I'm not changing my prediction, I was just wondering if there was any substance to the rumour that Ashley MacIsaac would run as an independent in this riding? I saw this on a website that lists candidates and rumoured candidates.
06/05/04 Roger Rankin
Email: [hidden]
A poll came out today giving the NDP 31% to the Liberals 40-ish in Nova Scotia - assume a couple of things that are likely to happen: the liberal vote will go down during the campaign, the opposition parties' votes will go up, and the likelihood that alot of the Liberal vote is wasted on Cape Breton, and the fact that Dartmouth has been very fertile ground for the NDP over the past decade - I'd say an NDP hold.
06/05/04 Mike D
An Omnifacts-Bristol poll has the federal parties at 40% Liberal, 31% NDP, 27% Conservative. The NDP vote is the exact same it was last provincial election, and its safe to say its vote is again concentrated in HRM at over 40% (Liberal votes concentrate in Cape Breton/Acadian pockets and Conservative strength primarily in the Valley/Pictou/South Shore). This won't even be close, despite the Liberals hopes. The evidence shows its time to call this one.
29/04/04 danny
Email: [hidden]
There are a few interesting factors. First the NDP is strong and had strong results in last years provincial election. They have held this seat twice now.Offsetting that is the fact that Wendy Lill,pretty popular,will not be re-offering. As well,the margin in 2000 under the new boundaries was very small. Alexa as national leader helped in 97 and 2000. Her star has fallen,at least to the point of not having coattails in neighboring ridings. As well Savage has much higher profile than mcAlpine-Gillis and will benefit from MacDonald's lack of profile.PM Martin wants this seat and will work to win it,was here already.Liberal strength for this riding.
26/04/04 RP.
Email: [hidden]
NDP hold. The still rising star of the NDP in N.S. is one of the great political success stories of the past decade. The word "Liberal" still leaves too sick a taste in peoples' mouths, especially in HRM. The Liberal candidate is more likely to lose support through association with his father. Plus, when people start using overly "confident" language like carla below ("weak dipper"), I tend to think the person is nervous for the success of their own chosen candidate.
24/04/04 enby
Email: [hidden]
with great respect,there is NO way that the Conservatives can get 20%,let alone win. While the NDP will be organized,the fact that 1)they do not have Alexa as national leader and b)Susan M-G is not widely known will hurt badly. Peter Mancini would have been stronger. Conservatives will vote Liberal to defeat New Democrats,and Liberals are polling well here. Savage is well known and well liked. I think Libs will be hurt by sponsorhip scandal but I think will win this riding.
22/04/04 donny m
Email: [hidden]
There is a move toward Liberal cand Savage,partly out of respect for his Dad,partly for young Mike who has done a good job in the community. He got involved with the Lakes coalition and knows the key issues. I think old time Tories,like me,will go Liberal...even if we hold our nose to do it. The NDP candidate will not get much energy going.
19/04/04 Ian B
Email: [hidden]
The Conservatives have an excellent chance to win this riding. The Liberal brand in Nova Scotia continues to take a real beating over the sponsorship scandal and the money diverted from the Bluenose. The press seems quite happy to find a new problem with Paul Martin everyday. Since Alexa is not the leader anymore the cash and the adverising will move up to Ontario away from the local media.
I believe the electorate is looking for real change and they will not get any change by voting for the NDP or the Liberals. We will get a house cleaning in Ottawa by voting Conservative.
19/04/04 carla
Email: [hidden]
I cannot beleive how many of the Conservatives I know are talking about voting Liberal.The Tories should have waited to nominate until Harper had time to get better known down here.I think he could do much better with some exposure. It looks like the Liberals will get those votes even in spite of the sponsorship fiasco.Go figure. Savage,though,is highly regarded and looks pretty strong.He gets lots of press,deserved or not,and knows the game. The NDipper is weak.
13/04/04 Dartmouthian
Email: [hidden]
This will be a close riding, there's no question - but only between two parties, the Liberals and the NDP.
Wendy Lill is widely respected for her work as MP over the last seven years, and Susan MacAlpine-Gillis is a very hard-working, well respected community advocate.
Mike Savage's candidacy will give the Liberals a small boost, but the taint of the sponsorship scandal and 10 years of 'promises made, promises broken' government will help to keep this riding NDP.
13/04/04 C Brown
Email: [hidden]
Susan MacAlpine-Gillis of the NDP was nominated early and has been actively meeting with members of the community since. Michael MacDonald, the Conservative candidate, isn't that well-known in the riding, and was defeated provincially by Darrell Dexter, the NDP provincial leader, back in 1998. Michael Savage, the Liberal candidate, does have a well-known name but that didn't help him in 1997 when he was defeated by NDP incumbent Wendy Lill.
All five provincial ridings are NDP in Dartmouth - Cole Harbour and polls show very high support for the NDP federally as well.
11/04/04 k.n.
Email: [hidden]
The candidates are all nominated. A relatively weak Con candidate will send votes over to the strong Liberal candidate.Cons may be picking up strength in Atl Canada,not here.
06/04/04 royton
Email: royton@ns.sympatico.ca
This is is close riding, but the Liberals win it back. Mike Savage is a strong candidate, and could win over quite a few "progressive" connservatives. Wendy Lill is a fine individual , but her tenure as MP and the NDP's record is less than satisfactory, and the electorate may believe Rev. MacAlpine-Gillis will be just as ineffective.
02/04/04 DL
Email: [hidden]
Dartmouth is just about the most pro-NDP munipality in Canada with a solid slate of provincial, municipal and federal NDP reps. The NDP candidate is strong and won a very hotly contested and well attended nomination. The Liberal could not win in 2000 when things were going much better for them than now and having a candidate who is the son of the most unpopular premier in the history of Canadian provincial politics will not help.
01/04/04 Mike D
Email: [hidden]
NDPers in Nova Scotia have been watching the Conservative numbers closely for signs of weakness. If former PCs started to abandon the Conservatives in great numbers they would most likely go to the Liberals, putting a seat like this in play. But that has not happened. The Conservatives are at least in the mid-30s in Atlantic Canada - along with the NDP support maintaining itself in the mid to high teens regionally so the NDP leads in its HRM stronghold - meaning as of now the only reasonable prediction is an NDP hold.
31/03/04 Joe Radcliffe
Email: [hidden]
Mike Savage is a quality candidate for the Liberals, with strong community ties to Dartmouth. With the redrawing of the Riding boundaries to include polls almost all of which voted Liberal last election, and with the Conservatives not fielding nearly as strong a candidate this time, the path is clear for a Liberal gain.
31/03/04 dawhansam
Email: dawhansam@hotmail.com
I believe Mike Savage will win Dartmouth-Cole Harbour for the liberals. Mr. Savage has great name recognition, a strong connection to the community and an reputation for compassion, integrity and hard work. He can appeal to all Dartmouthians, regardless of political stripe.
29/03/04 J Cherniak
Email: [hidden]
The Liberal Candidate in Darmouth is Michael Savage, son of former premier John Savage and current president of the Nova Scotia Liberal Party. Mike is very well repected in the community, and the current NDP MP is not running again. Mike is certainly the odds on favourite due to his reputation throughout the province.
24/03/04 lisa
Email: [hidden]
This is a very close election from 2000. I think the NDP will be weaker in NS without Alexa being national leader. Boudreau was a come from away,Savage definitely is not. He seems to attract good vibes from people. A friend told me there was a huge crowd at his meeting. I have voted NDP last provincial,Liberal this federal.
20/03/04 Daniel R
Email: sample@canada.com
I am new to the community of Dartmouth and I have been completing some research for the coming election. To date, I believe Mike Savage will take this seat. The first reason is because it appears that Mr. Savage has worked very hard building a strong reputation and has earned his own respect from the community, especially its leaders. It appears that in 97 Savage took over 10,000 votes and the Tories had a very strong candidate (McCleave) who also took over 10,000 votes. This time, many true Tories will not be able to vote for Harper and will see Savage as an excellent advocate. As for the NDP, it appears to me that W Lill and the NDP have done little for this community. When I attended the NDP nominating meeting, I was turned off because I found it ironic that Susan MacAlpine-Gillis won the contested nomination because she promoted that Peter Mancini, a former Cape Breton MP, was not from Dartmouth and should be consider an outsider.
19/03/04 MJ
Email: ryan_593@hotmail.com
There are a few ridings I'm genuinely confused about, and this is one. It'll go Liberal or NDP, I can't tell which. Mike Savage, likely the Liberal candidate, lost in 1997, but because the family name was not a good one to have at the time. But he's done a pretty good job as presdident as the NS Liberal Party and now that his father has passed on, "Savage" isn't a completely evil name. He's considered quite competent. At the same time, the NDP candidate, Susan MacAlpine-Gillis won a very contested NDP nomination, and she looks like a very strong contender and follow-up for the surprisingly successful Wendy Lill. Like I said, I don't know who'll take this.
19/03/04 M.W.
Email: mijawara@yahoo.com
Please. Liberals take Dartmouth? Right after the NDP wins Wild Rose, and the Conservatives upset in Mount Royal. Halifax is becoming an NDP stronghold. MacAlpine-Gillis fended off a former MP and an entertainer with big name recognition to win this nomination, she's a great candidate. The Liberals will be lucky to get Boudreau's 34% again, even with a decent candidate like Savage; and the combined Tory/Alliance vote should fall well short of its 30% in 2000.
19/03/04 syllap
Email: sylapointe@hotmail.com
Susan Mcalpine-Gillis will keep this seat for the NDP, well known and very well liked and Wendy Lill will of course campaign with her....I actually think the Tory are the bigger threat here....the Liberals may be last....
19/03/04 Debby
Email: [hidden]
I believe Micheal Savage will win this election. He is involved in everything and is seen as a winner. I am not very involved in politics, but I would like him to win.
18/03/04 enby
Email: [hidden]
This is interesting.The margin was not much last time for Lill.She was not that strong but the new NDP candidate is weaker,completely unknown.The Liberals will be nominating Mike Savage who is strong in the community across the board. He has been Party President and is a great speaker. Other POTENTAIL Lib candidates who see this as a strong seat backed off for him.His father,a liability in 97 is now revered and Mike will get a lot of Tory votes. This could be a strong win for Martin's side and Savage could be a Cabinet guy.
18/03/04 Mike D
Email: [hidden]
In last years provincial election, the NDP swept Dartmouth. They won every seat. This seat is trending heavily to the NDP. The biggest problem the NDP faces here is fitting their candidates hyphenated last name on lawn signs.
18/03/04 md
Email: [hidden]
this was very close the last two times.Savage will be strong,Libs should cruise...
17/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
If we're not mistaking the NDP incumbant is not running again. Despite this we're expecting the NDp to hold this riding. The numbers are just too good for the NDP, especially in Nova Scotia for them to lose their exisiting ridings.
Email: [hidden]
The Liberals should win this one with Mike Savage as the candidate. He will energize the Liberals and bring a lot of traditional Conservative votes as well. It may not even be close.
17/03/04 Neal
Email: nealford@sympatico.ca
With Wendy Lill out of the game, this riding could go any of three ways.
16/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
I dont think there's any question that Lill not running again will hurt the NDP, but the NDP will gain from the competition. The Liberals will do very well here, but I dont think they can edge out the NDP. When it comes down to polling day, The NDP will win this riding, even if by the slimmest of margins.
15/03/04 S Meades
Email: [hidden]
Susan MacAlpine-Gillis is an excellent candidate, and the NDP is doing wonderfully in the region. The same can't be said for the Conservatives and Liberals. She'll take the seat easily.
27/02/04 Patrick Webber
The NDP nomination meeting for this riding attracted four candidates and over 1000 people! The provincial NDP holds almost all of the Dartmouth seats, and the NDP was able to defeat the Liberal "Crushser" Bernie Boudreau in 2000. Easy NDP win.

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