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Central Nova

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
6:33 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:02 PM 14/03/2004

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Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Susan Green
Alexis MacDonald
Peter MacKay
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Rebecca Mosher

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Pictou-Antigonish-Guysborough (93.3%)
Peter MacKay
Sackville-Musquodoboit Valley-Eastern Shore (6.7%)
Peter Stoffer

2000 Result/Résultats: >2000 Prediction/Complete Results^p
17,969 47.53%
11,471 30.34%
4,845 12.82%
2,976 7.87%
541 1.43%

(185/217 polls, 53215/58861 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Sackville-Musquodoboit Valley-Eastern Shore
(21/218 polls, 3851/63567 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 RP.
Email: [hidden]
I'll concur with Sid Smith, except on one thing: I thought Alexis was from PEI originally? Apparently, people often mistake her (name) for Alexa McDonough (my mom made that mistake, for one). It has opened some doors for her, (I jokingly suggest that) it could work here.
24/06/04 Lisa MacLeod
Email: lisam@bluedraft.com
Peter MacKay will win in a landslide, end of discussion end of debate. For anyone who thinks a candidate coming from Antigonish will have anything to do with the outcome, you're wrong. A candidate will win or lose this election, or any other in this riding for that matter, on the west side of New Glasgow. MacKay will win that side of town easily for two reasons 1) it's solidly conservative and 2) his machine is likely one of the strongest in the country- yes I said it and I have seen it. Then he's got the rest of Pictou Center and, of course, the other two Pictou's- East, Tory held provincially and West- where MacKay's family is from. The votes in Antigonish and elsewhere will be gravy. My prediction- his vote goes up and the Liberal, who attends the same Church as MacKay, comes third. Dippers score a shocking, but distant second.
01/06/04 MJ
Email: [hidden]
"This is NOT a Red Tory stronghold, it's very socially conservative (as is MacKay)"
I disagree. MacKay is socially conservative, but having lived here all my life, I really don't think the people here are all that small-c conservative. They just vote Tory because it's comfortable. That's how I see it anyway.
26/05/04 Sid Smith
Email: [hidden]
I don't count the NDP out of this either - victory is still not likely, but here are a couple of reasons that a New Democrat upset in this riding wouldn't leave me shocked: first, the NDP has solidified its presence in Nova Scotia as a moderate, progressive political option on both the federal and provincial levels, with grassroots vital enough to allow it to recruit candidates with good personal qualities and strong, credible local ties to the places where they stand for election - the NS NDP isn't; second, said local candidate is one of them - Alexis MacDonald is a very bright, energetic, and engaging candidate with local roots; third, all the credible polls have the "Conservatives" in deep trouble throughout the Maritimes, while the NDP's Atlantic support is highly concentrated in Nova Scotia; and thirdly, Peter MacKay is a liar and deceiver, who has earned a place of eternal enmity in the hearts of red tories like myself for his Brutus-like behaviour during the past year.
25/05/04 MJ
Email: ryan_593@hotmail.com
The NDP are not going to win this riding, but she could take enough votes away from Green for MacKay to come up the middle. I'm sorry, I have a really hard time seeing MacDonald winning. She'd have to hold on to the votes from 2000 and add at least 10,000 more, meaning she'd have to take almost all of the Liberals' votes from 2000, and Green is much stronger than Mason was in 2000.
Interestingly enough, though the campaign is young, MacKay has done the least amount of work so far, I'd say. Green is off to a good start, she and about 10-15 supporters were at one of the busiest intersections in Pictou County this morning, waving as I drove by. Nice show of support for her for 7:30 in the morning (7:30!!). MacDonald has the most signs up so far, surprisingly. Green has a few signs up, and so does MacKay.
25/05/04 Balon
Email: buckleycrowe@hfx.eastlink.ca
Wishful thinking to expect anything but a win for Peter MacKay here. This is NOT a Red Tory stronghold, it's very socially conservative (as is MacKay), so there will be little fallout for MacKay's role in the demise of the PC's. Add that to MacKay's continued high profile in the CPC, and this one's a slam dunk.
25/05/04 Graydon
Email: [hidden]
As much as I think Peter MacKay could be beaten in this riding, it ain't gonna happen this time around. The bulk of the population (%60) in the riding is located in Pictou county, and Pictou county votes conservative period. Antigonish will go Liberal as per usual, but it won't change the tide. I've worked on a couple of federal and provincial elections in Antigonish and I think most are resigned to another MacKay victory. As for the NDP, they will not be a factor at all.
23/05/04 Former Tory
Email: [hidden]
Don't underestimate the NDP in this riding. With both MacKay and Green hailing from Pictou county and MacDonald being the lone Antigonisher, local support will be a factor. MacDonald is bright, young and well-liked and although the NDP is the dark horse in the race, MacKay has lost the respect of many for his merger with the Alliance. Stephen Lewis' endorsement of MacDonald certainly gives her a boost. This is a riding that could produce a big surprise... I am not guarenteeing anything at this point, but the NDP might just come out on top./TD>
16/05/04 Cameron
Email: [hidden]
Whoa Nellie! Christopher, I have noticed anyone on this board predicting a victory for Alexis MacDonald - why so tense? If anything a strong showing by the young Ms. MacDonald might save Peter "Did I say white, I meant black" MacKay's bacon. Personally I doubt that MacKay will pull anywhere near the 47% he got last time, so his best hope is for most of what falls away from him to go to MacDonald. If it does, we'll see a surprising 3 way race, but one in which MacKay just might survive. If dippers vote strategically he's toast.
12/05/04 Christopher
Email: chrisbean@hotmail.com
I live in this riding and let me tell you...the NDP DO NOT HAVE A CHANCE...I think Bill Blakie's daughter has a better chance of winning LaSalle-Emard than MacDonald has of winning here...I am very confident of a Tory win here...I am a card carrying Liberal and I will vote for MacKay because he is a front-bench MP who can actually make a difference in this community...that being said I will say that if anyone were to conceivabley beat MacKay it would be Green...but I am gonna go out on a limb and say there is about a 1/20 chance of that a happening given the political climate...Harper may not be popular here, but MacKay is!
11/05/04 MJ
Email: [hidden]
"I'm glad I don't have to vote in MacKay's riding...I think I'd hang myself." LMAO...I do have to vote in this riding (well, I don't HAVE to, but I will), and I'm still as confused about things here as I was when I originally posted. I still contend that MacKay isn't NEARLY as popular here as people from outside the riding seem to think he is. He's polarizing, at least to the people I talk to. Many like him, many really don't. I'm unsure about him. I personally haven't decided who I'm voting for yet, but I like the Liberal candidate, Susan Green, and she DOES have name recognition here despite what a previous poster said (her name is all over the riding and in the local papers as she heads a large real estate company). The NDP candidate, Alexis MacDonald, is very young and unknown, but she seems to have an impressive resume. It's important to understand, though, that she has almost no chance. It's between the Tories and the Liberals here, as always.
08/05/04 Mr. Mischief
Email: [hidden]
As much as I HATE the idea of a Liberal winning...I think there will be a surprise in this riding. I have no statistical information from polls, but my feeling is that Mr. Mackay is going to pay a price for misleading Progressive Conservatives about his merger intentions. The only possible beneficiary of such a lynching would be the Liberal Party. I'm glad I don't have to vote in MacKay's riding...I think I'd hang myself.
19/04/04 GM
Email: [hidden]
There might be some people who consider Peter MacKay damaged goods, however, he has been integral in the whole merger process and put what was needed for Canada above his own aspirations for leadership.
Even 42% should be good enough for Peter to win, and I still think he has a strong political future for the good of Canada.
31/03/04 Medman
Email: [hidden]
Mr. MacKay is arguably the most popular Conservative in the country at the moment. Recently, he has been appointed Deputy Leader of the Party. Even if he didn't show up to campaign in this upcoming election, he would still be elected with 40% of the vote on the lawn signs alone. Since I know Peter will campaign his heart out, look for 55%+.
26/03/04 Tyler
Central Nova is A shoe In for Peter MAckay . He is well respected , he has done alot for this riding and he has put thid ridign on the political map . 4 out of the 5 Provincal seats are Conserative and this riding has been conservative for just about for ever . I predict 65 % for Peter Mackay in the next Election and By far the safest Conserative seat In Nova Scotia
24/03/04 David
Email: [hidden]
Peter will win in Central Nova, guaranteed. Susan Green is pretty much unknown around most of the riding. Peter is seen as perhaps the best chance this riding has at having a voice in Ottawa.
17/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Peter MacKay will keep his seat for sure. He's popular in a right wing riding and their only true rivals (Liberals) are in disarray with the various scandals. The David Orchard affair won't effect MacKay much.
17/03/04 MJ
Email: [hidden]
I live in this riding, folks. Believe me, Peter MacKay is not a sure bet. He definitely has a good chance but this merger has seriously diminished his popularity around here. And the Liberals have an EXCELLENT candidate. If he wins, it certainly won't be a majority. He couldn't get a majority in 1997 and 2000, so with his diminished popularity, I don't think he could get one this time.
We'll see.
17/03/04 Neal
Email: nealford@sympatico.ca
MacKay in a walk. He'll get a very high profile post in Harper's cabinet. Unlike the Liberal era, Nova Scotia will not be ignored.
16/03/04 Mike D
Email: mdavis@hfx.andara.com
Should be a safe bet for Peter MacKay. But he is damaged goods. I'll still watch this to see if the oldtime PCs do to him what he did to Orchard.
16/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
This riding backed up MacKay in a huge way in the PC merger vote, electing 100% merger delegates. MacKay is popular here. I disagree with Mr.Webber and feel the Orchard deal wont play here at all. Mr.MacKay is the only absoulete certain seat for the Conservatives east of the ottawa river. He will win by 50%+1 of the vote or more.
27/02/04 Patrick Webber
My gut feeling tells me that Peter MacKay willl get back in, gaining Alliance votes at the expense of old Red Tory votes. However, I'm not calling this one a definite Tory win yet. His betrayal of David Orchard at the PC leadership convention may hurt his credibility with local voters, since they have seen that he is more than willing to promise one thing and do the exact opposite. If he does win, it will be by less than 1,000 votes.

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