nl-Humber-St.Barbe-Baie Verte

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Humber-St.Barbe-Baie Verte
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
12:06 PM 6/18/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
2:10 PM 08/04/2004

Constituency Profile
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Candidates/candidats:
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(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)

Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Gerry Byrne

Conservatives/Conservateurs:
Wynanne Downer

Green Party/Parti Vert:
Steve Durant

N.D.P./N.P.D.:
Holly Pike

Population 2001
populations 76,467

Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs 61151

Incumbents/Les députés:

Gander-Grand Falls (11.7%)
Rex Barnes

Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte (88.3%)
Hon. Gerry Byrne

2000 Result/Résultats:

Redistributed

16,814 48.42%

8,509 24.50%

7,404 21.32%

1,999 5.76%

OTHERS 0 0.00%

Gander-Grand Falls
(30/192 polls, 7129/56511 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

1709
358
246
1125
OTHER 0

Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte
(193/195 polls, 54022/54042 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

15105
1641
8263
6279
OTHER 0

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	12/06/04	Nick Boragina Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
I've yet to see a good argument for anything except a liberal win. Harper may become Prime Minister, but he'll be hard pressed to win many new ridings in the east. The east is the only bedrock of Liberal support left. Liberal win, no questions asked.
	10/06/04	sharpey Email: [hidden]
This is the easiest riding to predict in Eastern Canada. Byrne has won the last 3 elections by widening margins. He won every station in the last election. Good constituency man running against a new comer. The dippers had this one last time around and poll 22%. No brainer liberal seat here
	10/06/04	Email: [hidden]
Too many people are sick of the two major parties in NL, the Liberals and the Conservatives. Enter Holly Pike, a highly respected professor from Corner Brook. I really think that she could collect enough of the disillusioned votes to pull off a victory. Trevor Taylor almost pulled an upset in 2000, and this year, I think that Holly Pike will shock many, and win.
	02/06/04	Steve C. Email: [hidden]
I don not see a man who was ousted by Paul Martin, and has been unreliable at best getting re-elected again. Wynanne Downer is a strong candidate, but she needs to put in a heroic effort to bump Gerry Byrne out. My predction: Downer takes Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte in a close margin.
	02/06/04	Voice of the Common Man Email: [hidden]
Liam O'Brien writes, "the 11% of the old Gander-Grand Falls riding is the Green Bay Part of the riding. This is old conservative territory....votes Conservative." If you look at the transposition of votes from the 2000 election, the portion of the old GGF that is transferred to HSBBV vote more Liberal, 49.7, than the old HSBBV itself, 46.3.
	29/05/04	Email:
"Gerry Byrne took some heat a while back:" The heat he took from fellow Liberal MP's pretty well guaranteed his re-election. "Many in the province were very troubled by this disturbing move" This is the first mention that has ever been made of it. "Finally, the 11% of the old Gander-Grand Falls riding is the Green Bay Part of the riding. This is old conservative territory....votes Conservative." In 2000, Baker won almost every poll in his riding for the Liberals, including the Green Bay area.
	25/05/04	Mike White Email: [hidden]
Put this one in the Liberal column. Gerry Byrne might have had problems in the past but the Conservative candidate doesn't have much of a name for herself, and the NDP's fondest dreams won't bring back Fonse Faour and victory. Byrne hung on to this seat despite the anit-Liberal tide in Atlantic Canada back in 1997, I see no reason for him to lose now.
	19/05/04	Liam O'Brien Email: [hidden]
This one is hard to call. Gerry Byrne took some heat a while back: "ST. JOHN'S - A federal cabinet minister from Newfoundland says there's nothing wrong with his fundraising campaign that asked for donations to be sent directly to his home. . . Liberal MP Gerry Byrne sent out a letter, recently obtained by CBC News, asking for the donations in July 2000, during the celebration marking the 1,000th anniversary of the Viking settlement in Newfoundland." http://www.cbc.ca/stories/2003/06/11/byrne_fundraising030611 Word has also spread in the western NFLD riding that Byrne, along with other federal Liberal MPs, voted against a motion to raise the age of consent from 14 to 16 years (falling in line with UK, minimums in US, Australia etc...) to prevent the increased use of consent as a defense by adults abusing minors. Many in the province were very troubled by this disturbing move and the fact that Byrne chose to vote to protect that option for these offenders. The link to the vote in question is here: http://www.parl.gc.ca/37/1/parlbus/chambus/house/journals/174_2002-04-23/174Votes-E.html Finally, the 11% of the old Gander-Grand Falls riding is the Green Bay Part of the riding. This is old conservative territory....votes Conservative. That said, The Northern peninsula used to be a strong Liberal area... This is one riding I think is impossible to predict. The conservatives and Liberals have 50-50 chance here. provincial 2003 vote breakdown conservative 65%, Liberal 34%, NDP 1%. I think this is one riding deserving of one of those multi-coloured lightening bolt symbols used on this site!
	12/05/04	Nick Boragina Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
I think the people predicting a CPC win here are doing so on the strength of the NL PC Party, which is Flawgic at best. Provinces tend to vote for parties that are in opposition federally, only re-electing government in the same line as federal ones, or, turning to them in desperation. Provincial voting trends are tehrefore not trustable when applied to the Federal level. The PC Party has no historic strength here, much less the Alliance. The CPC will finish second most likely, but not first. Liberal win.
	23/04/04	Mike D Email:
There is no real NDP base in this riding. The candidate who ran for the NDP last time is now with the Provincial PC government. Indeed, throughout rural Newfoundland, there is no NDP base vote beyond say 2 or 3%. When the NDP does well there, it is with a strong local candidate with their own following. So unless you see someone like this running, rural Newfoundland should be written-off for the NDP. There is a base vote for the NDP in St. John's of about 10%, and those two seats are worth watching for possible NDP strength. And with no sign of a strong Conservative candidate, this seat will likely return a Liberal as it almost always does. Byrne in a walk.
	22/03/04	Bear and Ape Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
This is one of two ridings in Newfoundland and Labrador that we feel is uncertain at this point. It seems that this could be a threeway race provided the NDp can gather enough support. there is an NDP base in this riding and growing NDP fortunes could steal votes from the Liberals. As well there is a Conservative element in this riding as well. Our decision now is undecided but if we were forced to pick, we'd have to say it would be Liberal (as of this point now).
	18/03/04	Nick Boragina Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
This riding is too close to call for me. A strong tory vote, coupled with this riding's historic strong showing for the NDP could make this a real three-way race!!
	15/03/04	Email: [hidden]
I think there's only one seat that the Liberals can consider safe, and that's Labrador. Gerry Byrne is really in for a tough fight. I'd give this one to the Conservatives for now.

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