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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
12:07 PM 6/18/2004

Prediction Changed
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8:56 PM 14/03/2004

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Rex Barnes
John Lannon
Samuel McLean
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Scott Simms
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Ed Sailor White

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Bonavista-Trinity-Conception (31.4%)
Hon. R. John Efford
Gander-Grand Falls (68.6%)
Rex Barnes

2000 Result/Résultats:
21,079 55.32%
11,358 29.81%
3,882 10.19%
1,788 4.69%
0 0.00%

(112/290 polls, 22562/66679 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Gander-Grand Falls
(161/192 polls, 49382/56511 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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12/06/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
no need to get hot under the collor, this is one of simple facts. I recently saw the Liberals at 60% in eastern canada. With a poll like that, you'd expect the party to win 32 of the 32 seats out here. There was a running joke here locally that the Liberals would win 33 of the 32 eastern seats with those numbers.
While I have seen more recent polls that show the Liberals lower, and the Tories higher, and this riding does have an incumbent MP, I still am not seeing CPC gains in Newfoundland. New Brunswick and Nova Scotia are the two places they are doing well, not here. Liberal win.
12/06/04 E. MacKenzie
Email: [hidden]
I expect Rex Barnes to benefit from the recent victory of the Conservatives in the provincial elections and from a strong personal vote. Simms doesn't seem like the kind of strong Liberal candidate who could buck what appears to be a Conservative trend nationwide and within Newfoundland itself. It won't be a landslide, but I think Barnes should be able to squeak by.
10/06/04 Jeff mackey
Email: mackey@roadrunner.nf.net
I thought it might be time to add another perspective to this debate in this riding. Mr. Barnes would have crossed the floor and run for the Liberals except he knew the nomination could not be won. There are obvious reasons why this seat will go back to the Liberal Party once again in 2004. Mr. Barnes was elected for three primary reasons. First, voters were punishing Beaton Tulk and Barnes was the number two guy they could turn to. Secondly, voter turnout was very low during the by-election when many Liberals stayed home as a form of protest vote. Third and most importantly, Mr. Barnes was elected on the shirttails of Danny Williams and the PC Party who travelled the riding up and down last time, meeting with voters and dragging out votes for the PC's. Mr. Barnes obviously has none of these three things in his back pocket this time and will be beaten handedly by newcomer Scott Simms. I predict Mr. Simms will come out with a majority similar to that of John Efford this time around.
03/06/04 Voice of the Common Man
Email: [hidden]
"We're assuming that when voice of the common man says, "It is also true that R.B. did some soul-searching about securing his re-election by pulling a Brisonherron and running for the Liberals." he's talking about Rex Barnes running for the liberals. Would you please clairify? "
Rex flirted with the idea of crossing the floor as a way of securing re-election. He didn't in the end pull a Brisonherron. DIDN'T. Clear enough? He knew running as a Liberal would be a safe thing in a traditional Lib seat. He stayed far away from Harper in the leadership, like most Atlantic PC's. His voters are of the same mind.
02/06/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
We're assuming that when voice of the common man says, "It is also true that R.B. did some soul-searching about securing his re-election by pulling a Brisonherron and running for the Liberals." he's talking about Rex Barnes running for the liberals. Would you please clairify? Do you know something we all don't know (including elections Canada) who seem to think that Rex Barnes is running for the Conservatives and Scott Simms is running for the Liberals. Either alot of people are very very confused or you're talking about some other riding during some other election.
28/05/04 Voice of the Common Man
Email: [hidden]
"It is true that Rex Barnes is the first federal conservative to win most of this region since 1968 when Ambrose Peddle won"
It is also true that R.B. did some soul-searching about securing his re-election by pulling a Brisonherron and running for the Liberals. He is uncomfortable in Harper's party, and so will be the rural parts of this riding. Liberal take-back.
19/05/04 Full Name
Email: [hidden]
I am from the Town of Buchans in the riding of Bonavista-Exploits.
It is true that Rex Barnes is the first federal conservative to win most of this region since 1968 when Ambrose Peddle won it in Newfoundland's Anti-Trudeau/Smallwood near-sweep. It is also true that when he won it in by-election, turnout was low and he had an target with problems in Beaton Tulk. . . But that doesn't mean he hasn't made headway since then. On an anecdotal level, never have I heard more true grit Liberals say they'll be voting for Rex in the federal election (I'm talking about people who voted Tulk in the by-election). Rex had made inroads in the communities of Central Newfoundland. He is the clear favourite in the biggest community in the riding -- Grand Falls - Windsor.... where he served on Town council... His support crosses lines that other conservatives rarely cross -- largely because he was a health care worker and involved in the union. People in the region know they're electing a moderate MP. Also, in every riding in Newfoundland and Labrador, they see only one federal party willing to take non-renewable resources out of the equalization calculation -- that means hundreds of millions in extra revenue for the province that Martin's team has refused to promise. The anti-harper fear campaign can't work too well if the Harper is still the only game in town willing to gove Newofundlanders control over their own resources, money form their own resources and scrap unpopular (esp in rural areas) laws such as the long gun registry.
Scott Simms was not the expected winner of the Liberal nomination. If Gibbons had won, there would have been a real battle here. But Simms is light-weight, not as well known outside of his home town in the district -- he might have been a weather man, but FAR more popular media personalities have tried this game for the liberals and LOST to Tory incumbants... Peter Miller of CBC in 2000 comes to mind...
Also, the media have reported divides comming from suspected favouritism in the Liberal nomination process:
From CBC April 29 2004:
"The nomination fight has had its own controversies. The Liberal election committee has been accused of favouring some candidates when it decided where to put the ballot boxes."
Finally, I offer the obvious and significant change in political attitudes in the recent provincial election.
There are nine (9) provincial electoral districts within the larger federal riding of Bonavista - Exploits:
Windsor-Springdale (Springdale is in Humber riding, but this changes very little)
Grand Falls-Buchans
Twillingate Fogo
Bonavista North
Terra Nova
Bonavista South
Provincial and federal political alleigences in Newfoundland are pretty close together.
The combined provincial totals for the Bonavista - Exploits region show conservatives have made inroads since Rex was first elected.
Conservative - 28,476
Liberal - 20,964
NDP - 1696
Rex Barnes will win this seat. He even has six popular incumbant conservative MHAs to help him do it. More importantly, he's shown himself to be an independent MP and a more visible represnetative than Baker or Rompkey ever had been.
10/05/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
After reviewing recent polls, looking at historical trends, looking at the election of mr.barnes, and trying to predict things, I've come to some fidings
1-Mr.Barnes was not elected for his party. He was elected because he was there. People wanted to toss the Liberal, so they turned to the #2 candidate.
2-Mr.Barnes does not have enough personal pull to draw in many votes. While he may be "popular in his home riding", in reality, a good 90% of MP's are. That's how they got elected in the first place. While he is a good MP, he is not a great one.
3-The CPC is still painted with the stigma of the CA in some parts. This is one of those parts. Rural Newfoundland does not like Conservatives very much, most PCers get elected in these parts when people want to throw out the Liberal.
Therefore, I've concluded that the Liberals will take this riding back, likely with a larger majority then in 2000
06/05/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
Where are the opponents for Barnes? It is difficult for a riding to be going liberal...or even too close to call, without a Liberal candidate being nominated, or even a nomination meeting held (none scheduled according to the Liberal party website).
Here you have an individual versus a riding's general oreintation...which makes for an interesting race, since in Newfoundland, individual candidates are very, very important catylsts for voters in making their choice. Anyone from the riding have any information?
24/03/04 Jacon
Email: [hidden]
Rex Barnes was elected on a fluke - a protest bi-election vote against an unpopular Prime Minister who showed disrespect to favorite son George Baker. Well, George's protege Cory Hobbs is the Liberal candidate and Chretien is no longer the PM. Coupled with Harper's comments about Atlantic Canadians, this riding is going back to the Red column. It won't even be close!
24/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
This is a very important peice of information that needs to be made clear. Mr.Barnes won this riding through a by-election. There are a few things that are important about this. First of all, the results of that by-election may not repeat in the general election. This riding has been traditionally Liberal, all the way back to 1949, there have been twise as many Liberals elected here as Conservatives. Rex Barns' win here was a surprise. I remember the election night, it's all they were talking about, because it was shocking, they expected an easy Liberal win. This means two things. First, of Barnes has surprised before, and may do so again. Second, he did surprise as the Liberals traditionally win here.
For me, this riding is too close to call when looking at the facts.
21/03/04 JR
Email: [hidden]
One should look at the redistributed results before musing Conservative about this seat. It is the most vulnerable of any Conservative seat in Atlantic Canada. Mr Barnes won this on an anti-Chretien, sympathetic to George Baker's outster from Cabinet in a by-election. Not only was the original boundaries of Gander-Grand Falls extremely favourable for the Liberals, it has now absorbed part of Bonavista-Trinity-Conception, which was more Liberal than the bits of the riding it has lost.
There is significant interest in the Liberal nomination for this riding, and with due cause: the Liberals are, barring a meltdown nationally, going to pick up this seat again. Mr Barnes' election was a fluke, which is about to be reversed. Senator Baker's daughter, indeed, may turn out to be the candidate that restores this seat to its traditional voting patterns, which are solidly Liberal. If not, Paul Martin's man in Newfoundland, Rex Gibbons, will likely carry the seat for his man.
17/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Rex is a very popular MP and has definitly done his job since winning the by-election. True, he was elected under the PC banner but his effectivness, a good group of Newfoundland Conservative MPs and (need it be said) Liberal fiascos are going to help the Conservatives keep all their seats in Newfoundland (maybe even gain one or two if things brighten up for them over the weeks and months to come).
15/03/04 SB
Rex Barnes has been an outstanding MP who is very popular in this riding. Expect him to increase his by-election plurality and win this one with 50%+.
15/03/04 S Meades
Email: [hidden]
The Conservatives are strong enough (so long as Harper doesn't win on March 20th) to keep this riding without a doubt. Rex Barnes will almost certainly seek the nomination, and the latest scandals will help him keep this seat.
27/02/04 Andrew D.
Rex Barnes has been an outstanding MP since he won the by-election in 2002. I think he will take this riding with a strong majority.

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