Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election 2003

York West

Last Update:
9:48 PM 30/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
23 October 2002



Political Profile:

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
Liberal Party:
Mario Sergio
 Progressive Conservative:
Ted Aver
 New Democratic Party:
Garth Bobb
 Green Party:
Richard von Fuchs

Incumbent:
 Mario Sergio

Federal MP:
 Judy Sgro

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction
Plurality11371
*MARIO SERGIO
16457 63.32%
CHRIS COLLIER
5086 19.57%
STEPHNIE PAYNE
3377 12.99%
ANTHONY DAVISON
427 1.64%
MARK SCRAFFORD
299 1.15%

S. NICHOLAS C. LIN
194 0.75%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality17 034
 Judy Sgro
19 768 77.3%
 Munish Chandra
2 734 10.7%
 Julia McCrea
2 365 9.2%

Demographic Profile:
Population
2001103616
1996104957
199199230

(1996 census)
Age
0-1930555
20-3938490
40-5921645
60+14260

Avg Household Income
$39485
Labour Participation60.70%
Unemployment15.60%

Canadian Citizen
76.77%
Canadian Born39.01%
Ontario Born35.16%
Immigrant58.97%
Visible Minority54.35%
Aboriginal0.22%

First Language
English43005
French490
Italian16305
Spanish7455
Punjabi4305
Chinese4135
Vietnamese3465
Tamil2495

Residence
House44.08%
Apartment55.89%
Owned41.11%
Rented58.89%
Avg Dwelling Value$188697

Education
University13310
College/Trade School17335
Secondary32850

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29/09/03 DB
Email:
The NDP will do surprisingly well here, maybe get 25% this time. Slowly, oh so slowly, the huge rental voter bloc is becoming aware. But, they are as likely to vote Liberal as NDP. Any Tories will stay away out of embarrasment and disgust. They might lose to the Greens here. The Liberals and Tories will be pulling election day people out of here to other ridings. I get the feeling the Liberals will all be going to Willowdale to try to take out Young.
 26/09/03 Craig
Email:
THE ABSOLUTE safest Liberal seat in Ontario. The Tories stumbled here and will be barely on the radar screen with an eleventh-hour appointment (plus their low province-wide numbers) and the NDP candidate Bobb will be lucky to get his deposit back as well. Sergio should blow the others away in the largest landslide in Ontario in recent memory. Current prediction: Sergio 77% (most lopsided result of all), Bobb 10%, Tories 8%, von Fuchs 2%, others 3%.
 23/09/03 Get it right
Email:
Giangioppo is no longer a candidate.. having had to withdraw at the last minute after it was revealed he had been disbarred and hadn't told the Tory party...OOPS!.. The PC's parachuted in a party activist who doesn't live in the riding.. too late.. hand this one to the Liberal incumbent in a cakewalk.
 19/09/03 wynn
Email:
I wonder what 'diversity' has to say now, given the Globe and Mail's front page article on the disbarred PC candidate's stature. A replacement candidate for the PC's! This has even tainted the York Centre candidate Cullen.
 18/09/03 Gerry Kennedy
Email: gerardjkennedy@Hotmail.com
"diversity" has submitted a joke, right? There are some ridings that will never ever vote Tory and this is in the top ten. I was going to write longer but decided not to waste any more time on this riding
 18/09/03 905er
Email:
Diversity - I admire a man with a dream. Even if it is a surreal fantasy of epic unbelievability. The Liberal's got more than 60% here last time and the wheels are not exactly falling off the cart province wide. Increased diversity and a better party showing will spell an even larger win. This riding is as safe for the Liberals as a ride on tricycle on a closed, empty track.
 10/09/03 diversity
Email:
This could be a surprise upset loss for the liberals and gain for the PC's. The NDP is regaining its strength and the flood of NDP signs would certainly support this. These is also a sea of blue PC signs this time around. The liberal plurality in the last election will dissipate. One half of it will go to the NDP Candidate. The PC Candidate Mario Giangioppo will receive the benefit of the changing demographics ( ie diversity ) for this riding. He could come up the middle and win this one for the PC's. For such a huge win a cabinet position should be a certainty. Certainly without the high profile Palladini in the PC party locally the PC's could use a popular Italian Canadian like Mario Giangioppo for visibility and representation of diversity in cabinet
 16/05/03 Craig
Email:
A riding painted in bright red, the Liberal vote is going to solidify even more as the largest Liberal plurality (and largest for any party) in Ontario. Neither the Tories nor the NDP have any real base here and it will turn out to be a romp in this Liberal fortress. Predicted results: LIB 74% (most lopsided result in Ontario), NDP 11%, PC 9%, Green 3%.
 25/02/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Super-safe it is, but not in the ultra-formidable, 70-80% & up federal terms; in fact, this is where NDP was either victorious or competitive through the Lewis-to-Rae era. But school trustee Stephnie Payne couldn't even earn back her deposit in falling to third in '99, and the NDPer whom Mario Sergio defeated in '95, George/Giorgio Mammoliti, has himself switched to the Grits (and the New Democrats must be thinking, thank God). Besides, to be an Italian Liberal geographically cradled between Cordiano and Sorbara is a blessed thing to be...
 22/10/02 Burke
Email:
This is the safest Liberal seat in Ontario. The Liberals will easily hang onto this riding. In the last federal election the Liberals captured 77% of the vote here and in the last provincial election the Liberals captured 63%.
22/10/02 Angelo
Email:
York West is the safest Liberal seat in Toronto. The riding is a sea of Liberal red signs during every election campaign. Mario Sergio will cruise to victory by a wide margain. This one is a no brainer.

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