Election Prediction Project
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

York South-Weston

Last Update:
1:41 AM 22/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
25 October 2002

Political Profile:

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Liberal Party:
Joe Cordiano
Progressive Conservative:
Stephen Halicki
New Democratic Party:
Brian Donlevy
Green Party:
Enrique Palad

Joe Cordiano

Federal MP:
Alan Tonks

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

18205 53.39%

7471 21.91%

6850 20.09%

542 1.59%

486 1.43%

261 0.77%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality1 497
Alan Tonks
15 841 45.6%
John Nunziata
14 344 41.3%
Dan Houssar
1 754 5%
Tom Parkin
1 288 3.7%

Demographic Profile:

(1996 census)


Avg Household Income

Labour Participation59.10%

Canadian Citizen

Canadian Born45.82%
Ontario Born40.86%
Visible Minority41.32%

First Language

Avg Dwelling Value$189403

College/Trade School21140

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21/09/03 Dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
History...history...this riding was not Bob Rae's...or at least a good 45%or so...Redistribution changed the character of the riding but kept its name...to recall Joseph Noseworthy in the 1940s, David Lewis et al in the 1960s and 1970s demonstrates great history but poor reasoning (though I still commend the author for the effort). Lewis's hold even on the old riding was slipping as its Anglo working class roots were diluted by increasing Italian inroads till he was ousted in 1974...and federal (and now provincial redistributions since then have only increased the Italian middle-class segment of the riding, plus other Liberal-friendly ethnic groups). Look at 1999, the Liberals took 53% and the PCs were second! This time is going to be brutal...Liberals probably near or 68%-70%, sure the NDP will be second, but only 22-23% or so...btw, the CCF roots in the riding were deep...York borough suffered enormously in the Great Depression and its solid Anglo working class voters shifted from massive Tory support in 1930 and before to experimenting with the CCF in 1935...and then the 1942 by-election crystalized this experiment to a decided orientation till the 1970s...
16/07/03 J.S
Email: jarrow_crusade1936@hotmail.com
Cordiano did get 53% of the vote here last time, and the Liberals look likely to form the next government... But the NDP has deep roots here(Rae, Lewis etc.) and they are running hard in Toronto(and polls suggest that along with the North and Hamilton, NDP support is highest in Toronto). So although, perhaps I should predict a Liberal win here, I've got just enough doubts to withdraw that prediction.
26/05/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Re 1999, I don't think it was the NDP threat that pushed Kennedy out so much that *another* Grit heavy hitter and leadership candidate, Joe Cordiano, needed a seat--and as YSW contained Cordiano's core Italian constituency, it was a better fit for him (and in the process leaving the NDP core all but smothered). Whereas yuppie PHP (which contained his former seat's southern "panhandle") was a better fit for left-Lib Kennedy. Oh, and Mihevc's municipal seat is part of St. Paul's, not YSW...
23/05/03 AL
Grizz says: " Provincially this riding may have been NDP during Bob Rae's government (I'm not 100% certain)" In just a few words Grizz has made it clear he knows nothing about this riding. Not only "may" have York South been an NDP riding during Bob Rae's government, it *was* Bob Rae's riding! Rae had it from 1982 until he retired in 1996 (ie he kept it in 1995) and in the byelection that followed Liberal star candidate Gerrard Kennedy *narrowly* beat NDPer David Miller. The Liberals were so insecure about this riding that Kennedy moved to Parkdale rather than run in York South Weston. Before Rae, Donald MacDonald held York South for the CCF and NDP from 1955 until 1982 and before that Ted Jolliffe held it for the CCF from the 1940s until 1953. Federally, the riding has been represented by CCF/NDP notables such as Joe Noseworthy and David Lewis. So yes, Grizz, this riding "may have been NDP" in the past. It looks like you're prognosticating purely by looking at the resutls of the last election without any actual knowledge of the riding or the very strong roots the NDP has there (today part of the area is represented at City Hall by NDPer Joe Mihevic.).
14/05/03 Grizz
I would like to rebuke Al's comments pertaining to this being traditional NDP territory. As I recall, federally it is Liberal and prior to the current MP it was the holding of John "Never-Had-A-Cabinet-Seat-But-I'm-Not-Bitter" Nunziada, a right leaning Liberal (recall his flirtations with the Canadian Alliance). Provincially this riding may have been NDP during Bob Rae's government (I'm not 100% certain) but look at the current reality. The last election saw over 50% for the Liberals in this riding. If people want a change in government they are not going to squander their votes on the NDP if its a close race. Voters are more likely to vote Liberal to ensure that the Conservatives don't form the next government. Liberal keep for sure!
16/03/03 AL
Don't forget this is a traditional NDP riding. In the 2000 federal election they ran Tom Parkin who didn't even bother knocking on any doors. A corpse would have gotten more votes for the NDP than Parkin. With the party recovering province wide and having gotten a respectable 20% of the vote here in the last provincial election the NDP could well upset Cordiano if they run a good candidate.
12/02/03 A.D.
hmmmmm, i don't really hear much from Mr. Cordiano, but with the re-surgance of the NDP and the wave they are riding after having an amazing leadership race (the parties could take a lesson from how clean and cordial it was, personality, ideas & experience were the issues not money and power and who could sling the most mud!!!) any way (tangent)i think this riding might need to be watched. NDP candidate did realtively good, getting over 20% here last time when the NDP was decimated and got round 12% province wide. Remember part of this riding encompasses the old York South riding that used to be the Lewis stronghold and dare i say it Rae's old seat. the only reason the Grits took it was the Anti-Rae sentiment and the Glamour of Mr. Kennedy (who is now is PHP)and if Mrs. Pellizzarri (i hope thats spelt right) could be a factor here, wait i wouldn't count the NDP out in any TO riding right now. ny way, i think that this riding will be closer than most people think.
12/02/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
It looks like a snoozer for Cordiano--but bear in mind that this encompasses what was, until 1996, the heart of Bob Rae's turf. And before that, Donald MacDonald provincially, and David Lewis federally. That's a lot of NDP leaders. For this reason, the NDP was able to eke out over 20% against Cordiano in 1999--credible for that election year. But that was still below PC cannon fodder. Still, expect the New Democrats to sustain an above-average electoral pulse here, even if it's for naught. Trouble is, YS-W is a little too multiethnic-inner-suburban-downscale for the full Jack Layton left-yuppie spillover effect, so the threat to Cordiano remains, at best, minimal--especially if it's perceived that Joe Cordiano's headed for cabinet...
23/10/02 Burke
This should be an easy hold for the Liberals. It is considered a Liberal stronghold and Joe Cordiano has represented parts of the riding since the eighties. I expect he and Liberals will cruise to victory here.

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