York North

Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election 2003

York North

Last Update:
4:48 PM 07/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
30 October 2002

Political Profile:

Candidates:
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Liberal Party:
John Taylor

Progressive Conservative:
Julia Munro

New Democratic Party:
Sylvia Gerl

Green Party:

Incumbent:

Julia Munro

Federal MP:

Karen Kraft Sloan

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

Plurality 13858

*JULIA MUNRO

29613 61.81%

JOHN VOLPE

15755 32.89%

STEVE SAYSELL

2236 4.67%

KWOK-LIN MARY WAN

305 0.64%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction

Plurality 10 680

Karen Kraft Sloan

22 665 46.5%

Bob Yaciuk

11 985 24.6%

Joe Wamback

11 890 24.4%

Ian Scott

1 696 3.5%

Demographic Profile:

Population

2001 132038

1996 117859

1991 99511

(1996 census)
Age

0-19 37130

20-39 36995

40-59 29560

60+ 14165

Avg Household Income
$67674

Labour Participation 73.00%

Unemployment 6.40%

Canadian Citizen
96.52%

Canadian Born 84.24%

Ontario Born 75.64%

Immigrant 15.49%

Visible Minority 6.00%

Aboriginal 0.89%

First Language

English 101870

French 1685

Residence

House 85.10%

Apartment 14.38%

Owned 78.88%

Rented 21.12%

Avg Dwelling Value $201787

Education

University 18495

College/Trade School 28855

Secondary 34670

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	01/10/03	Georgina Resident Email:
I'm sorry people, but you just aren't getting the straight goods from the so called small "c" of the Georgina area of this riding. Julia had her signs up very early when the election was called....Taylor later, but the small "c" conservatives, who are perceived as Julia's ultimate strength, just aren't there anymore. Appart from the Incumbents invisiblity within the Riding , people are generally fed up with the present Tories, who more closely today represent extreme right-wing Republicans of the U.S., than the "ol' Faithful PC Party of the past. The extreme right of centre ideaology of the present PC's is even scaring old-fashion PC voters! The winds of change within this previously PC stronghold are turning into the steamroller of momentum, and it's definitely towards Taylor's and the Liberals platform of health and education reform. Taylor's more than made his presence and points here in the Lake Simcoe part of the riding, and there's no doubt from the feedback of the community, and even YES, previous staunch Tories in the swing vote, not against Julia, but FOR the Liberals....start packing Ms Munro, the new occupant is moving into your office space AND your M.P.P.'s chair!
	30/09/03	Tory in Dixie Email: canadien76@hotmail.com
Ms. Munro should be able to return to the legislature, the riding of York North is very much aligned with the small c tendencies of the Lake Simcoe Region. The case can be made that York North is actually more conservative than some parts of Simcoe County, if one considers the margin of victory in the last election. The Liberals would need about a 20 point swing and no resurgence in NDP support to knock Ms. Munro out.
	30/09/03	K.R Email:
I disagree with the past comment that Julia Munro has more signs in this riding. John Taylor has clearly painted this town red! I have yet to drive anywhere and fail to see his name. His hard work, and the work of his campaign commitee is clear. It seems to me that Julia Munro has given up, and is no longer showing up for debates! Not only that, but Mr. Taylor's office is in plain sight, where as Ms. Munro's is quite the contrary which to me seems like she lacks confidence in her ability to win this riding. Mr. Taylor is heads above the rest, and I am confident we will soon see him at Queens Park. So long Julia!
	29/09/03	L.P Email:
Taylor is working hard, and Munro has been quiet, but the talk of the area is hard line PC. There are more visible PC signs on personal property than any other party
	29/09/03	Betanko Email:
A Liberal gain--perhaps more narrowly than the southern York Region ridings, but the margin won't matter on October 3. While I'm no fan of the Era-Banner, Canelan's claim that the paper is anti-Tory just doesn't hold water. In 1999, the paper endorsed the Tory incumbents. If the paper is leaning Liberal this time, it merely reflects the prevailing view of its readers.
	26/09/03	Canalen Email:
Far from taking it for granted, all evidence points to a stout campaign by Ms. Munro. As an aside, I was at an all candidates meeting that was reported on in the Era Banner. Of course the Banner suggested Taylor won hands down (the paper has never been favourable to Munro and the Tories) and spun that Taylor was helped by his "booming" voice - that's a euphemism for he does not know the differnce between his "outside" voice and his "inside" voice. Oddly, most people in the riding don't seem to get the connection with his dad (the respected Mayor of Newmarket). I guess Taylor is a common name. I see Munro and her canvassers everywhere. Their sign campaign, though it lagged at the begining, seems to have built strength as time has gone on. One thing is for sure: same sex marriage and school choice are HUGE issues in this riding. The christian school people are highly mobilized and the extremely large and potent seniors population is more than motivated to vote against anyone who supports same sex marriage - Taylor has been very emphatic about his support of changing the definition of marriage. I think that will help Munro. With a large seniors population and the fact that seniors are sticking with the Tories, I see this riding keeping this Tories in.
	25/09/03	Craig Email:
Like many other swing ridings, I have decided to call this one Liberal. Dalton McGuinty sounds serious about taking this area because he has been here so many times, and Julia Munro is taking the 62% last time for granted in this suburban-rural riding. I see that huge margin made up on election night. Current prediction: Taylor 52%, Munro 42%, Gerl 4%, others 2%.
	16/09/03	Cyndie Email:
I find it amazing that you still have Julia Munro taking this riding. The Leader of the Ontario Liberals has visited this riding three times in the last month! What does that tell you about the priority of York North and isn't it more likely that this is actually a swing riding?????
	11/09/03	Craig Email:
York Region is a definite battleground between the Tories and Liberals (which seems to be more centrist than the rest of the 905 area, with the Thornhill thriller and Sorbara's convincing win) - and this riding follows the trend. John Taylor appears to have the upper hand, but Munro has a large majority to work with (which is sure to erode). Agriculture is a major issue here, as is the environment/urban sprawl (as suburbs encroach), and the Tories are with the developers on that issue. The NDP are a fringe party here, so the Liberals have the entire opposition vote. It will probably take 50% to win this one safely. Current prediction: Munro 49%, Taylor 46%, Gerl 3%, others 2%.
	11/09/03	Betanko Email:
While this riding has been solidly PC in the last few elections, much of this riding was held by Charles Beer (LIB) for a couple of terms beginning in the mid-1980s. For the Liberals to win this election, they need this sort of swing riding where there is a relatively low-profile incumbent. Another concern for the Tories must be the success of Greg Sorbara in Aurora since the Newmarket area has a very similar demographic.
	20/05/03	Grizz Email:
A very interesting situation here and two ways of looking at Julia's approach. One says her low profile will make he a less tempting target than other Torys, which will help her campaign. The other says that she isn't doing anything and this will help the John Taylor. I think both views are correct, especially with taylors hard work in getting recognition. However I also feel that many people are going to vote PC possibly out of habit, possibly out of loyalty. They did win 61% in 99, that means many like they way they do things here.
	27/02/03	Chris E Email:
I agree with the previous couple of posts, I have seen a lot of John Taylor. I frequent Georgina where Julia Munro lives and I haven't seen her in ages. People are really upset here about the abandoned aluminum smelter and Julia Munro has done nothing! the papers are demonstrating that she is refusing to act. Whereas John Taylor had Dalton McGuinty committ to cleaning up the site - thats what will win a lot of vote in Georgina!
	16/02/03	Katie R. Email:
I see that the Liberal candidate in York North is getting his name out there. He came to my door canvassing, he's advertising on television, and I've seen numerous letters from to the editor from him in the local paper....still no sign of Julia Munro...is she even running again?
	04/02/03	Phil A. Email:
Though Julia Munro remains below the radar screen, that will undoubtedly hurt her. As an unbiased observer people are wondering where she is in the riding...contrastly, John Taylor, the Liberal Candidate is making quite the name for himself - championing environmental issues and spending time and money promoting himself as the candidate - certainly an advantage for a candidate with an early nomination. I pick Taylor hands down.
	28/10/02	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
With this being the official starting gate for the last two provincial PC campaigns (not to mention being relatively immune to the sweeping ethnic/vizmin 905-belt waves to the south), I can't see York North falling except in case of catastrophe. And Julia Munro's fairly low-profile and non-controversial; ergo, not as compelling a target as other Tories...

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