Election Prediction Project
Ontario Provincial Election 2003


Last Update:
3:23 PM 01/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
12 November 2002

Political Profile:

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Liberal Party:
Deborah Whale
Progressive Conservative:
Ted Arnott
New Democratic Party:
Richard Walsh-Bowers
Green Party:
Al Strong

Ted Arnott

Federal MP:
Lynn Myers

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

26286 61.46%

12923 30.22%

2306 5.39%

685 1.6%

566 1.32%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality4 822
Lynn Myers
19 619 43.7%
John Reimer
14 797 32.9%
Michael Chong
7 999 17.8%
Allan Douglas Strong
1 845 4.1%

Demographic Profile:

(1996 census)


Avg Household Income

Labour Participation73.30%

Canadian Citizen

Canadian Born86.80%
Ontario Born80.99%
Visible Minority3.47%

First Language

Avg Dwelling Value$162795

College/Trade School22890

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01/10/03 Judi Bud
The Liberal wave is going to sweep a lot of Tories out of office but I don't see Ted Arnett losing. This is still a bedrock, Tory type riding and people aren't sure about Deb Whales. Arnett will still be around in a much smaller Tory caucus.
30/09/03 Tory in Dixie
Email: canadien76@hotmail.com
I am going to go as far as to say that this Guelph Mercury poll is bunk as far as a predictor goes. Sandals will not win by 15-20 points as it suggests. It simply will not happen. If this did have any bearing on this neighbouring riding, it would be pretty small. The Wellington riding is bedrock, and the Tories will not be wiped out. I would anticipate that Arnott would help form a blue belt of rural ridings outside the GTA in the unlikely event that McGuinty does win. This blue belt would consist of such people as Arnott, Elliot, Eves, Monroe, O Toole going from west to east.
29/09/03 Gerry Kennedy
Email: gerardjkennedy@hotmail.com
Shouldn't this riding be listed as too close to call, at least, in light of the Guelph Mercury poll results? I must admit that this seems like solid Tory territory but what is solid Tory territory anymore?
29/09/03 Full Name
Surely the Grits on here are kidding themselves. Record poll or not, this is one of the top five safest PC seats in Ontario. The Tories lose they, and they are totally wiped out. Do the math.
28/09/03 larry skoog
a friend who is working on Lib campaigns swears that Lib candidate is strongest for this riding in a long time- local polls seem to indicate that voters may just be going with tide although local MPP is a good local constit. person. I do not think the plurality will be as much as the polling indicated- has this riding becoming more urbanized( city folks moving to the country besides Kit section of riding?- new Hamburg just a suburb now-seems this type of voters swinging Liberal
28/09/03 Chems
Time to put this in the Liberal column. The Tories should be very worried that they are going to lose this riding. Ted Arnott is well respected in Waterloo-Wellington, which is predominantly rural and conservative. Losing this means there isn't a safe seat for them in the entire province, including Eves'. Results from the Guelph Mercury poll released Sept. 27: Waterloo-Wellington PC - 36% (Arnott) Lib - 54% NDP - 5% Oth - 5%
27/09/03 AL
From the Guelph Mercury:Liberals lead in local poll KERRY THOMPSON
The poll, conducted by the Kitchener-based firm, Metroline, shows the Liberals with nearly 55 per cent support from decided voters in both Guelph-Wellington and Waterloo-Wellington.
The local Tory candidates are currently sitting with 36 and 33 per cent support in Waterloo-Wellington and Guelph-Wellington respectively.
27/09/03 Chems
Email: olip@sympatico.ca
With the Guelph Mercury publishing a poll saying Arnott is down 54% to 36%, it's time to put this in the Liberal category. This riding is a bellweather for the PC fortunes. Losing it suggests they'll be lucky to maintain party status. Who'd have thought Howard Hampton would be Leader of the Opposition?
23/09/03 James Bow
Ted Arnott put on a good performance at the recent all candidates' meeting, but his election in this riding is far from in the bag. There was a respectible performance by the Liberal contender, and she actually got support at the meeting. It will be a tough fight, and Arnott may still come out a winner, but I still think the safest seat for the Conservatives in this area is Kitchener-Waterloo for Elizabeth Witmer.
19/09/03 DL
Waterloo is looking more and more like Barrie west. There is a real Canadian Alliance feeling around these parts. It is actually shocking that voters elected a federal Liberal in these parts, when their provincial ideologies are ultra right-wing. Ontario is a strange, strange place.
11/09/03 The Big Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
With a massive majority for the PC last time they will be hard to beat short of an out-right collapse of the party. I say it'll be an easy PC win though with a significantly reduced majority.
09/08/03 J.M.
It's in the bag for Ted Arnott, especially since he recently went public with his views on same sex marriage. His opposition to it is guaranteed to fare well in a riding with an amazingly high number of social conservatives, especially that Arnott has revealed himself to be among their ranks.
23/05/03 Grizz
Andrew has it right when he says a 13,000 vote majority is pretty convincing. Liberals will do better this time but not anywhere near enough to win the riding.
09/02/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
In the Boy Scoutish native-son Tory-heartland tradition of Perrin Beatty, Ted Arnott is a backbencher's backbencher and should have little or no problem getting reelected, FCP or no FCP. Even if Walkerton's just NW of the NWmost extremity of the riding...
12/11/02 Andrew Cox
PC Win. That said, Ted Arnott is in a bit of a pickle locally. His riding includes a large and vocal contingent of pro-private school voters, but Arnott is publicly against his party's private school tax credit. These voters are also likely to be unhappy with Premier Eves' position on gay marriage, abortion, etc. The Family Coalition Party ran a candidate here last time, with just 1% support. The story could be different this time around. Remember 1990? The FCP and other "fringe" parties got 6% of the vote, allowing vote splitting that helped the NDP gets its majority. The Grit is a local farmer so that might help up the Lib totals. I'd still say the PCs will win even with a very strong FCP campaign. A 13,000 plurality is pretty convincing.

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