Election Prediction Project
Ontario Provincial Election 2003


Last Update:
1:40 PM 29/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
2:40 PM 21/09/2003

Political Profile:

(Links? See sponsorship details.)
Liberal Party:
Nellie Pedro
Progressive Conservative:
Helena Guergis
New Democratic Party:
Rosario Marchese
Green Party:
Greg Laxton

Rosario Marchese

Federal MP:
Tony Ianno

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

17110 47.89%

9817 27.48%

7323 20.5%

612 1.71%

274 0.77%

258 0.72%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality4 031
Tony Ianno
20 032 47.6%
Michael Valpy
16 001 38%
John E. Polko
2 309 5.5%
Lee Monaco
2 250 5.3%

Demographic Profile:

(1996 census)


Avg Household Income

Labour Participation67.40%

Canadian Citizen

Canadian Born49.21%
Ontario Born39.65%
Visible Minority32.84%

First Language

Avg Dwelling Value$242395

College/Trade School14450

Authorized by the CFO for the Trinity-Spadina Provincial Green Party Constituency Association
28/09/03 JP
My predicition is 72 Grits, 20-23 Tory's and the balance NDP and Rosario will hold this for the Dippers. This has more to do with Rosario as a person than love for the NDP, a lot of anger out there against Joe Pantalone and it will cut into Rosario's vote but he will be in by 500 to 1000 votes. The liberal tide will reduce what should have been a comfortable 2500-3000 vote margin to the barest of bare. The NDP should not rejoice in the victory as the fact it is so close should send a clear message that they had better not take traditional NDP seats or our votes for the NDP for granted and the signal to the Liberals if you want the seat next time put a top notch candidate up, had you done it this time the grits would have one more -PHOTO FINISH HERE FOLKS
28/09/03 lrs
I do not have local info has many of submisison persons can provide but it would seem you have two local strong persons running for LIBS and NDP- I assume Tory vote is collapsing- if it isn't then NDP would win easily then- how can Libs gain over 20 % in tis riding? if Libs win here- then we are looking at 85-90 Liberals and NDP having no official party status-everyone assumes Libs win overall so why not have left wing opposition in legislature
28/09/03 mw
It is now obvious that the Liberals will win the election. The Tory campaign has the stench of desperation about it (at the last minute they're calling on Mike Harris to shore up the core vote, and Ernie is prattling on, like some demented Richard Nixon, about the silent majority). There is now no reason whatsoever for NDPers to strategically vote Liberal in ridings where the Tories are almost non-existent, such as Trinity-Spadina. They can reward excellent NDP members, such as Marchese, with another term, and will probably do so.
21/09/03 Christie Palmerston
I'm changing my prediction. I think Rosario is going to get a majority. At first, I believed a lot of the hype about Nellie Pedro - I guess that I'm a victim of what I read in the media to an extent. But Nellie Pedro is a pathetic candidate - advertising herself as a leftist who will be relevant (as opposed to irrelevant like Rosario) to secular intelligentsia audiences in the Annex and as a social conservative to working-class Portuguese Catholic ones. The voters I've talked to don't seem to be too enthusiastic about Nellie. So here's my prediction: 54% NDP, 30% Liberal, 10% PC, 4% Greens, 2% others
20/09/03 Cosmonaut
Nellie Pedro is desperate here and in an interview with the Toronto Town Crier newspaper she has shown her lack of intelligence. She suggests that NDP votes should "hold their nose" and vote for her becaue the Tories have no chance of winning this riding and it would be a better if a Liberal won to get rid of the Tories. She has absolutely no concept of strategic voting is. The only thing that the NDP supporters would accomplish by doing that is possibly turn a Liberal minority into a Liberal majority.
20/09/03 Queer Nation
While lawn signs don't win election, by my count Marchese has a 6 to 1 lead over the Liberals.
19/09/03 Gerry Kennedy
NDP hold, though decreased margin of victory. Here's why: A) Rosario, unlike Churley, is taking this very seriously. He knows there's a strong campaign against him but he's working hard. The voters might reward that. B) He's successfully targeting the university students. On Wednesday he spoke at the Faculty of Law at the university and he had loads of students listening. I'd say U of T students for 4-1 for Rosi. C) Tory campaign has been utter disaster. This isn't as bad as it seems, however, because diehard Tories will realize it's in the best interest of their party to send Marchese back. D) Although it is winnable, this seat is of minimal importance to Liberals. Knocking off a Tory increases lead by two but knocking off a Dipper only increases gap by one. E) Marchese is undeniably a good MPP who has worked hard both in the legislature and for the riding. F) Poor Pedro. She just can't shake of Bubba a bear. I've spoken to those who plan on voting for her and they agree it was silly (though not as silly as "evil-reptilian kitten eater"). G) The NDP only has about twelve winnable ridings. They'll throw all their resources there. Conlusion... Marchese by at least 2,000
18/09/03 AnnexDweller
Here's my perspective, for what it's worth: I live in the Annex and you can hardly turn around without seeing an orange Marchese sign. But it's not just in the Annex. I do a lot of walking around in the district (eg. I walk to work), and no matter where I go it's the same -- orange is very familiar. I can remember seeing 1 liberal poster and 1 p.c. poster so far. Anyway, completely unscientific study? Perhaps. But it really is a noticeable phenomenon throughout the district. The 'sign poll' is no contest. I don't think the Lib candidate is in for quite the same cakewalk that her pal Martin is looking forward to.
12/09/03 Christie Palmerston
Rosario for sure. It seems in Toronto, unlike the rest of the country, the more professional and less working class a riding gets, the stronger NDP support. As others have pointed out, the Secular WASP/Jewish intelligentsia is growing and the socially conservative Portuguese/Italian Catholic element is shrinking. This doesn't help Nellie Pedro. Furthermore, a walk through solidly working-class Christie Pits will show anyone that there's more Marchese than Pedro signs. My prediction: NDP 44%, LIB 38%, PC 10%, Greens 4%, Others 2%
09/09/03 Crazy Jer
Email: jeremy_dutton@hotmail.com
Rosario Marchese has this one in the bag. Nellie pedro's desperate bid for attention with the don cherry "bubba" thing made her look just plain silly. It isn't the major issue that voters will be thinking of but it will haunt her when people are making that critical decision on the way to the polls. Furthermore, even if the Liberals increase the percentage gap with the tories, even if they win, I don't think this will be a one of the Toronto ridings to go Liberal with Nellie as the candidate. The Liberals should have searched harder if they were serious about unseating Rosario.
06/09/03 Craig
The latest poll has the Liberals dropping from 51% to 41% and McGuinty himself falling from 30% to 23%, mostly at the expense of the Tories. This was already an NDP safe riding (despite claims of the contrary) and has been solidified, Marchese should be re-elected easily (along with the other 7 NDP incumbents) and the margin could increase. Current prediction: Marchese 48%, Pedro 30%, Guergis 14%, Laxton 5%, others 3%.
05/09/03 Derek L.
Oh me, oh my! If John Barber says it it must be true! (not) I think the Liberals are just trying to psyche out the NDP with this absurd spin about having a chance in a seat that went NDP by 8,000 votes last time. Pedro is a Grade Z candidate and in each of the last three provincial elections, the NDP margin of victory in this seat has gotten bigger and bigger and bigger (the reverse of what was happening across the province).
04/09/03 Tory in Dixie
Email: canadien76@hotmail.com
I respectfully disagree with the too close to call. The incumbent has received alot of positive press coverage. I had the pleasure of meeting him during a constitutional conference twelve years ago when he was a minister in the Rae government. I believe he is an excellent public servant. Also, I would not be surprised if the Jack Layton factor added a good amount to his margin. One of the posters, Craig, crunched the numbers in a way that hit home, even if you halve the Tory support and assume they all vote Liberal, that's still not enough for him to loose. And halved Tory support is certainly not what I predict anyhow.
< 03/09/03 Andrew Cox
Looks like John Barber from the Globe and Mail thinks this riding could change hands in his column today, September 3. "Even the NDP is vulnerable to potential Liberal depredations -- not in its two east-end seats but in Trinity-Spadina, where school trustee Nellie Pedro is making a strong early showing against incumbent Rosario Marchese."
02/09/03 D A Kerr
Email: dougkerr88@hotmail.com
I think Pedro, the Liberal candidate, will win. I recently moved into the area- and I think I am pretty representative of the newer condo dwellers moving into the area- many of us are younger, professional downtown types and feel more comfortable with the Liberals than the NDP. The riding is less and less working class these days (with a quickly declining Italian community) - and I think is becoming more like part of Toronto Centre-Rosedale or St. Paul's - strong Liberal areas. There still is a large Portuguese community and I think Pedro has a high profile with this commmunity. If the Liberals run a strong campaign overall- the chances of taking this riding away from the NDP is strong.
22/08/03 Christmas Elf
Reading the papers yesterday, I noticed that the NDP are have now sunk to a sad 12 percent in the polls and the Liberals are now at 49 percent. Instead of writing the great Canadian novel and posting it here on this website, explaining why they can't lose, Rosario's supporters better start working for a change. He's in big trouble and Nelly has the big edge being the Liberal candidate.
25/07/03 JP
Email: madeincanadaoutfitters@sympatico.ca
The partisan and illogical basis for most of the comments on this site and others astounds me, its wishful thinking not practical and anyone who words on campaigns should be the first to recognise this!!!I am a life long Liberal who worked for the Peterson government and can count several dozen MP's and Ministers as friends, that said my prediction is NDP. Now my logic is based upon personal experience in the ward. While my neighbours and I battled NDPer Joe Pantalone at 183 Dovercourt my friend since 1985 Tony Ianno was no where to be found as was Nellie Pedro despite my telling lots of her people who live in the area she should step up to the plate. The only person who stuck his neck out was Rosario (another NDPer). Also note: I worked for Bob Wong on a couple of campaigns so I have some idea of the riding. It should be noted that Pantalone and Marchese are related by marriage so the fact he took a stand earned him marks with me, the 183 Dovercourt group is about 1000 householders in the west end of this ward and let me tell you they will all remember Rosario for helping up and that gives him a nice cushion, remember every liberal or tory vote that goes to him is like 2! It should also be noted that to assume that Portugese will only vote for another portugese is the ultimate insult to members of that community. I suspect this will be the sole NDP seat come the next provincial election in Toronto. Rosario is an incumbent and that is good for a few votes. The fact that I have not even seen a brochure from Nellie says she takes the portugese vote for granted. The fact that the only reason she got the nomination is that the union supported her will not translate into victory as they for the most part cannot vote, please remember that! The fact that she does not seem to realise that taking on a bigtime NDPer such as Pantalone could only earn her votes with non-NDPer's makes me wonder if she knows what she is doing or if her campaign staff are out to lunch. If they have done this in other parts of the riding then Rosario will increase his vote not decrease it. The only plus I can tell for Nellie is the huge number of new condos in the ward which as homeowners for the most part should translate in a 3 to 1 or 4 to 1 vote advantage for her which means she should win by 1000-2000 votes. This however I suspect is offset by the lack of vision and understanding on her part of what getting involved in the local community does when it comes time to vote, if she cant get a longtime liberal such as myself to vote for her she is in trouble! I think this riding will be decided by less than 500 votes as it has been since the 80's but I think the advantages of Rosario incumbancy against the changes brought by the condos that favour Nellie cancel each other out making it a horse race, and if she has annoyed others in the ward like the people in the dundas dovercourt area then Rosario will take this by 500 votes
24/07/03 MF
The NDP is way up in the polls in Toronto (as high as 26%). It appears that the increased Liberal support provincially is coming from 905 Harris voters, not NDP voters. And even IF NDP support has dropped to 11%, that's not significantly different from the result in 1999. Considering that this was one of the strongest showings in that election, even if the NDP vote drops by a few percentage points, it won't get rid of Rosario. The demographics of this riding have changed to the benefit of the NDP. In Toronto, unlike other parts of the country (like BC or Northern Ontario), the NDP has never been a party of the working class. Working-class Catholics have overwhelmingly backed the Liberals. This sector of the population is dwindling. The old Italian community here is now tiny, consisting of mainly of elderly immigrants or children of immigrants; their assimilated children are now overwhelmingly in the suburbs. The Portuguese, who are of more recent immigrant origin, are also starting to head to the suburbs. Meanwhile the WASP/Jewish intelligentsia and socially progressive professionals have expanded beyond The Annex to the Palmerston area (aka South Annex). This politically active group overwhelmingly votes NDP, and most likely contributes more than their percentage of the riding in terms of votes. No offense to Liberal supporters, but there seems to be a deluge of posters with a grudge against the NDP posting for ridings where the NDP is strongest (Danforth and Trinity-Spadina). Do these people really believe Rosario Marchese and Marilyn Churley are toast? Do they want the NDP wiped off the map completely?
18/07/03 Kippers For Breakfast
Nelly Pedro has one big advantage over Rosario Marchese. It's power. People in Trinity Spadina are growing tired of having a member who belongs to a third place party that's going nowhere. Rosario can jump up and down in the legislature all he wants but he's not able to do anything for this riding as a third party backbencher. Nelly on the other hand will go right to the cabinet when she knocks off Rosario. From that position, Nelly can make sure that her riding is front and centre. That's what Trinity Spadina needs and that's what they're going to get when Nelly wins.
12/07/03 Hop on Pop
Only the totally desperate NDP would attack Nelly Pedro for expressing her concern that beer should not be marketed to under age drinkers. That's all Nelly was saying and the NDP treate her like she's a criminal. Rosario Marchese is going to lose this race no matter what kind of mud the NDP throw at Nelly. I think it will be good for Trinity-Spadina to have a member who's part of the government and can do more for the riding than Rosario could.
12/07/03 BD
This race will probably be close. I believe its evident that much of the Portuguese vote will go to the Liberals. This will be a race to watch, since the liberal candidate will be able to attract some vote that previously supported the NDP. I believe most of the previous Tory vote may well also go the liberal candidate in this one.
10/07/03 Mayor McCheese
Nelly is going to win Trinity-Spadina because the riding has changed so much from the way it was in 1999. All those new condos that have popped up in the area are full of people who are not NDP supporters. These people have no ties to Rosario either. They are going to reflect much more of the province wide trend. I would never say anything bad about Rosario. I think he's a fine man but this just isn't his riding any more. Nelly is going to win.
08/07/03 Derek L.
Normad: You have got everything about the race in this riding reversed. The Portuguese already tend to vote massively Liberal. Marchese has won here by sweeping margins in 4 straight election without getting ANY significant Portuguese support. Nelly Pedro will just be preaching to the converted. In any case, the Portuguese vote in TS is shrinking at a very rapid rate. They are selling their homes and moving to Brampton! The NDP tends to win big in this riding among the WASP/Jewish intelligentsia. That segment is growing every year and it tends to vote about 80% NDP. If you are right and Pedro SPLITS the Portuguese vote with Marchese, it will mean that he wins by a better than 2:1 margin in the riding as a whole. A Liberal needs almost unanimous Portuguese support in TS to have even an outside chance at winning.
08/07/03 Nomar, not Nomad
Nomad seemingly displays a lack of basic understanding of electoral dynamics in Trinity-Spadina. The Portuguese community have been the most reliably Liberal voters in Trinity Spadina, federally and provincially for years. Rosario hasn't won by massive margins by sweeping the Portuguese vote, he's done so by consistently winning a good share of the Portuguese vote and by doing extremely well in other communities in the riding. I see no reason why, in broad terms, that won't happen again. Nellie Pedro faces the dual challenge of convincing the rest of the riding that she isn't a complete flake (bubbas of beer, etc.) while convincing the Portuguese community that she won't embarass them further. Nellie will do okay, but she won't win.
08/07/03 Speak Easy
Anyone who says the Portugese community isn't supporting Nelly doesn't know what they're talking about. The Portugese community has raised hundreds of thousands of dollars for Nelly and are a large part of her campaign. Rosario has lost some of his base to Nelly. That's why the NDP are so upset about her these days. They know Rosario is going to lose.
03/07/03 Nomad
Nelly Pedro is going to beat Rosario because for the first time, the Liberals have a candidate who cuts into Marchese's Portugese vote in this riding. Nelly has worked the Portugese vote to a point where she's now even with Rosario. That's all she'll need as the rest of the riding will give her victory.
02/07/03 Not Convinced
Email: cornucopicus@yahoo.ca
My contacts in the Portuguese community in Trinity-Spadina tell me to watch out, liberal candidate Nelly Pedro is not what she seems. Everything she has touched in her own ethnic community has turned to dust and many Portuguese-canadians are turning to Rosario, even if they have always voted liberal until now. I have spoken to a good number of my neighbours and the things they tell me about where her campaign money is coming from, how she has dealt with issues in her own community and how she is percieved there, tell me that she may not count on her own community for much help. Regardless, it seems like it will be more of a challenge for the ndp this time around, but everyone i know in this riding is still voting ndp. A few have said they may hold their nose and vote liberal, just to ensure that the tories don't get in again, but the Tories have no way of winning in this riding, so why would they waste their vote on a liberal?
02/07/03 tea cup
Actually, Rosario has been out in the different neighbourhoods within the riding, holding meetings with people and attending community events. On the day that the story about the bubba beer cans broke, Rosario was at an eduction meeting speaking with parents about local concerns. Hey, the man seems pretty busy to me.
27/06/03 Ringleader Sally
The Liberals scored a real coup when they convinced Nelly Pedro to run for them in Trinity Spadina. Nelly is the perfect candidate to finally beat Rosario Marchese. She's smart, hard working and knows how to put together a big enough base to win this riding. Nelly is going to surprise a lot of people when the election comes this fall.
21/06/03 Slim Shady
I live in Trinity-Spadina and I can tell you that it seems like Rosario Marchese has dropped off the face of the earth this spring. He's been a no show at a number of events that he always appeared at in the past. In his place we keep seeing Nelly Pedro front and centre at all the key events in the riding. I really thinks it's all over for Rosario and he seems to know it.
16/06/03 Craig
Check the facts. Last time, with 12% province-wide, the NDP won here with nearly 48%. Their numbers are heavily skewed by the fact their support is in pockets, not spread out across the province (which is why they get 3 or 4 percent in a lot of rural and suburban ridings). The NDP is safe here, in fact I think they will get an absolute majority. They would have to fall below 6 or 7 percent to be threatened.
09/06/03 Piggly Wiggly
If you had asked me six months ago if Nelly Pedro had any chance of beating Rosario Marchese, I would have said not a chance. Times have changed in Trinity-Spadina. Nelly was one of the first Liberals nominated in Toronto. She and her team have used the last year well and have turned a lot of head with the work they've done. Rosario seems to be nowhere in the riding and this is costing him. Right now I have to say that Nelly wins this riding without any doubt.
30/05/03 Political Hack
Jay Bird is looking like a NDP shill to me. No matter how you try to spin the latest polling results, the NDP are a bad third. That makes Marchese vulnerable to a good Liberal candidate. Looking at the way the NDP are attacking Nelly, it looks they they are taking her very seriously. They should. She could very well be Rosario.
30/05/03 Crash
Nelly Pedro and her campaign team are simply out working Rosario and the NDP in Trinity-Spadina. That's what will make the difference when the election is called in September. Pedro is going to win.
29/05/03 Jay Bird
Reality Check should check his reality. The Liberals are stalling the back-to-work legislation too. Not to mention the fact that Nellie has made herself the poster child for trustee incompetence with the bubba attack. If anyone captures an anti-education backlash it will be her. Marchese has little to fear. The Compas poll had a tiny sample and a similar poll earlier in the week by Vector with the same sample size had the NDP at 19%. Suffice it to say, it's not the be all and end all. Not to mention the fact that the Liberals have entered the last three elections leading in the polls and still lost, lost, lost.
27/05/03 robert e
excuse me, but the Liberals are also holding up this legislation, so if this is the reason you beleive that the Libs will win here, you are way way off base.
27/05/03 ARL
Reality Check has to learn how to read polls. The NDP are not "back down" to 11%. Different pollsters have different methodologies (and Compass, the house pollster for the National Post, has a reputation as an "ideological pollster" who ask loaded questions which maximise right wing results and is not well regarded by serious public opinion researchers). You don't compare a Compass poll to an Environics poll and say a party is up or down. You determine a trend by comparing Environics polls to past Environics polls, Compass polls to past Compass polls etc. In any case, as has been pointed out earlier, the NDP had 12% province wide in the last election and won Trinity-Spadina easily so it's ludicrous to say the'll lose the riding with an 11% province wide rating. Most pollsters have the NDP's level of support in the mid to high teens however.
27/05/03 Addie-Lefty
To all those dreaming that TS will fall into the hands of the Grits, u are dead wrong!!!! ok lets go over some points about TS. The make up of the riding puts it in as one of the safest NDP ridings in the province. Look at the last elections the NDP got only 12% and still managed to get double the amount of votes that of that the Grits got!! and they were suppose to win those elections too!!!! just some food for thought. Ok another point is that the figures of 11% come from the National Post, a right-wing corporate entity that never favours anything progressive. Polls that i have seen place the NDP anywhere from 12-16% depending on the source. So this point is that even if the final vote at the end of the day puts the NDp at 11% TS will be one of the seats that the NDP holds. Another reason is that Nellie is a parachuted candidate, and they never fair very well!!! remember Bob Hunter the "star" candidate that was to be the next MPP for Beaches, well lost!!! Nellie dosen't have his star quality and is from Davenport not TS, she will lose. Oh and BTW have the Grit supporters forgotten that your own president has said that they are not targeting NDP ridings, so Nellie is very much so out of luck and should have stayed on the School board. Rosie will be sent back to QP once agian.
26/05/03 Reality Check
The NDP are back at 11%. Now there's a reality check for the New Democrats. Stalling the back to work legislation to end the Toronto Seperate School lockout is really hurting the NDP in Toronto. It's just not practical to let the school year go down the drain because you believe labour negotiations are sacred. This stand is going to cost Rosario his seat.
23/05/03 Crystal Ball
I always thought that Nelly Pedro had a decent chance of beating Rosario Marchese but looking at the National Post today it looks more and more like this will happen. The Liberals now have 51 per cent of support with the NDP dead last at 11 per cent. I just can't see a very good candidate like Nelly not taking beating Rosario with his party almost off the radar screen now.
15/05/03 Grizz
Uncle Grizz would like to say that he agrees with all the NDP brothers and sisters and mothers and fathers and aunts and uncles and cats and dogs who think that the NDP will keep this seat. Why? Well it happens to be the NDP's best bet (federally) on winning any seat in Ontario outside of Windsor. With close to 50% of the vote last time and the Liberal candidate being subject to some baffoonery (whats up with this Don Cherry thing?) this is going to stay NDP.
13/05/03 J.S.
NDP hold. Even with the current opinion polls, a majority of 20% should be easy to hold on to, barring a wipeout. And I doubt that the NDP will get wiped out. Also the high union participation and high amount of rented homes plays into the NDP's hands.
12/05/03 IanB
Maybe Marchese should have Don Cherry come campaign for him! Seriously, though, I doubt he'll lose. I don't see the NDP losing many of the seats it holds now (with the possible exception of Hamilton West which has no incumbent anyway) and since Marchese's profile is high enough in this urban, ethnically-mixed area of Toronto (along with a share of trendy lefties) AND coupled with the fact that he's running against (basically) a parachute candidate should be enough to put him over the top.
12/05/03 Jay Bird
Email: goandwin@hotmail.com
While Marchese has been described as gracious and eloquent Nellie has certainly cornered the market on stupid and crass with her Don Cherry attack. Talk about fiddling while Rome burns. She is really finished now, check the feedback:
- a "dart" in the Saturday Star's Darts and Laurels section
- becoming a talk show pinata on Thursday and Friday with universal negative response including the comments: "Some people will do anything to get on t.v." "Aren't there other REAL problems in our schools she should be dealing with?"
- "How did we ever elect such a Bubba-brain as a school trustee in the first place?" Christina Blizzard, Toronto Sun, May 9
- "Dumb Dumb Dumb da da da Dumb Dumb Dumb" headline Toronto Sun May 9
08/05/03 ARL
Nellie Pedro is a school trustee representing the neighbouring riding of Davenport and it's unlikely her existing electoral support is portable. That's probably why Pedro is using her school board position to try to get publicity by, of all things, attacking the Don Cherry "bubba" commercials. While this got her on the front page of the Sun, Pedro is wrong to think any publicity is good publicity. The issue only makes her look like a flake and is not only unlikely to translate into votes, it's likely to make her a joke with voters.
01/05/03 Craig
Safely NDP. These thoughts of losing the seat because the NDP is falling in the polls - they collected 47% last time in this riding with 12% province-wide. If they move back up to the 17-22% earlier (not out of the question), they will just increase the margin. The Liberals should gain about half of the 1999 votes from the Tories with their huge decline in support but that would only get them to about 36%. Barring a terrible campaign, no change here. Predicted results: NDP 51%, LIB 36%, PC 9%, Green 3%.
29/04/03 Brother Jim
Right on Sister Cindy for telling it like it is. Rosario and the NDP did stab us in the back with the social contract. There are lots of OPSEU members who will never forget. That's why we voted in favour of supporting a dozen Liberal candidates when we were together for our annual convention this month. So don't tell me that it's only few union members that will never forget.
27/04/03 UnionProud
Email: ieatpoliticalmeat@hotmail.com
I'm a little suspicious of the union sister who chose to anonymously post that she will be voting Liberal. She certainly doesn't think like any CUPE member I've met.
When there was a strike at my work Rosario Marchese was there once a week. Liberals were never there. When the sisters and brothers of CUPE 2295 walked off their jobs at the TD Centre Rosario Marchese and Marilyn Churley joined them on the line and marched with them to the Labour Board. I never saw a Liberal there either. When the Tories tried to force city workers back on the job and put Guy Giorno in charge of arbitration Marchese and Churley stood up for workers while the Liberals rolled over and did what the Tories told them.
I know which side Marchese and Churley are on. I never know with the Liberals. At every gathering of CUPE and OPSEU I've been to no one mentions "social contract" they talk about the Liberals wishy washy stance on privatization and contracting out. Marchese will win this. Easy.
25/04/03 Derek L.
Fine, the little sewing circle of elephants with memories going back a generation (all 5 of you) can go ahead and vote Liberal to protest the social contract - 10 years later! Marchese will just win by 9,995 votes instead of by 10,000! I suspect that the comment below is from a Liberal plant grasping desperately at straws to defeat Marchese - who is unbeatable.
24/04/03 Cindy
I have been a proud member of CUPE for twenty years. Like Marilyn Churley, the two words Rosario doesn't like to hear are Social Contract. The NDP died for me the day Rosario and the rest of the NDP government stood up in the Ontario Legislature and voted in favour of the Social Contract. What Rosario was saying was that it's alright for the government to use it's power to break legal union contracts. As bad as Mike Harris and Ernie Eves have been, even they didn't bring in a Social Contract bill. There are thousands of public service union members who will never again be able to trust Rosario. So now the NDP supporters who post their comments on this site can go ahead and attack me. That's fine. It will never change the fact that Rosario supported the NDP's Social Contract.
17/04/03 mR. aNDERSON
Just for clarification: people who live in Toronto will know that Michael Coren hosts Michael Coren Live, Corriere Canadiense "is the most authoritative voice with the Canadian Italian community", also Marchese frequents the pages of Sing Tao, CHIN etc. etc. I think it's pretty clear that Marchese has a much much higher profile than Nellie. He's in the cultural media, local media, campus media, and National media on a weekly basis - taking on the government. Nellie's limited moment in the sun has long since passed and I looked through the pages of the local press to find a reference to her. There aren't any. If voters in Trinity-Spadina want someone to fight the Tories I highly doubt that they will turn to a one-trick pony like Nellie or a charmless wonder like McGuinty. There's a reason the Liberals are hiding their leader.
15/04/03 James Bow
Trinity-Spadina is perhaps the NDP's safest riding in Toronto. The Liberals will give a good fight (they always do), but I don't see Rosario Marchese being beaten, here. Expect a Liberal landslide throughout Toronto, but not in this neighbourhood.
10/04/03 ARK
Reality Check: Marchese and a number of university activists were denied the right to speak to the U of T Governing Council against raising tuition. On Da Money fails to explain how this hurts Marchese rather than help him, unless he believes that most U of T students want a tuition increase the fact that Marchese is willing to go to Governing Council and speak out against them while Nellie Prado didn't helps Machese and hurts Prado. Trinity Spadina is the safest NDP seat in Toronto and will stay NDP even if the party gets 10% of the vote in the rest of the province.
09/04/03 Scotty
April 5 EKOS poll results. Liberals 53% Tories 34% NDP 11%. The NDP are falling apart and Rosario is finished. That means Nelly will be the next MPP for this riding.
08/04/03 On da Monay
Email: ondamonay_8676686_2003@yahoo.com
Uh, right, Mr. Anderson. What makes you think, then, that the 6 people who read the Varsity, and...sorry, but who is Michael Coren? Oh, right, the columnist for The Toronto Sun tabloid. Now, you say, Marchese has been in The Almighty Toronto Star. Tom Wackobek was also in The Star, and God forbid, this definitely proves he's going to be the next Mayor of Toronto!! Nellie Pedro will win Trinity Spadina...as Nicole Kidman won the Oscar...by a nose.
05/03/03 mR. aNDERSON
Dalton talking to sixty people at UofT is not going to make the thousands who voted for Marchese change their minds. Rosario is everywhere you turn - on Michael Coren, in the Star, on the cover of the Varsity, in Corriere Canadiense, etc. etc. etc. Nellie's momment has came and gone. Even Sorbara and the Liberal aparatus have abandonned hope.
03/04/03 On da Monay
Email: ondamonay_8676686_2003@yahoo.com
Too bad the University of Toronto Governing Council recently striked out Rosario Marchese from their roster of proposed speakers for a debate on tuition fees. Looks like Rosario is putting up a fight to hang on - seeing how Dalton McGuinty is dropping by campus to promote Nellie Pedro at a University of Toronto Young Liberals event. Voting day will be interesting in this ward, but with Dalton and Paul Martin giving Nellie the push she needs, she might just end up at the top of the podium.
29/03/03 ARL
This is the NDP's safest seat in Toronto, Marchese is very popular and has represented the area in one way or another (first on school board, then at Queen's Park) for a very long time. The seat is even more of a lock with the Liberals concentrating on Tory-held seats and ignoring those held by the NDP (see NOW article cited earlier).
17/03/03 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
The attack on the NDP by GS encouraging SV indicates the NDP vote is holding up. This riding was held in the last two elections with no problem. It would take a meltdown beyond any reasonable belief to deliver this riding to the Liberals. It will be NDP with the third best margin of victory. It is wishful thinking at best to keep this riding up for grabs.
16/03/03 AL
Andrew wrote: "Simple: the vote's going to happen after all the university students have gone home for the summer. That's a big blow for the NDP, and could prove the difference for the Martin-backed Pedro." The last two elections were held in June after students have gone home for the summer and both were won by Marchese. No reason why university being out of session will make any difference this time if it didn't matter in 95 or 99.
06/03/03 NOW magazine
"...the Liberals aren't targeting NDP ridings. According to a list obtained by NOW, none of the nine incumbent seats of the third party is included in the Grits' list of priority ridings... notably Sault Ste. Marie (held by Tony Martin) and Trinity-Spadina, where Grit Nellie Pedro has already set up a storefront office as part of her bid to unseat Rosario Marchese. Sorbara explains that going after NDP seats is not worth the trouble..."
Complete article: http://www.nowtoronto.com/issues/2003-03-06/news_story4.php
07/03/03 Derek L.
This is a super safe NDP seat. It is absolutely ludicrous to call this a Liberal/NDP tossup. If this one is even close it means that the NDP will be wiped off the map and get an even smaller percentage of the province-wide popular vote than the 12.7% they got in 1999 (when Marchese won here with 47% of the vote - in other words the NDP vote in Trinity-Spadina runs about 35 points ahead of the province-wide average). Every single piece of evidence indicates that the NDP will so at least somehwat better in 2003 than they did in 1999. A few other points to remember:
1. Yes, Nellie Pedro is school board trustee, but she represents Davenport, NOT Trinity-Spadina. No one that she currently represents actually has a vote in the riding.
2. So what if some students are away from the riding? The last Ontario election was held in June of 1999 after the school year ended and Marchese still won a sweeping victory. BTW: a lot of students stay thorugh the summer.
3. As has been mentioned above, the Layton campaign has really energized the NDP in downtown Toronto. With 1,700 card carrying NDP members in T-S. this fits every definition of a stronghold. When push comes to shove the number one priority for the Ontario Liberals will be to win marginal suburban and rural seats away from the Tories. When decisions have to made on where to distribute resources, I think that Nellie Pedro will quickly find that the folks have relegated her to the "C" list of ridings.
05/03/03 THE GAMBLER
The Gambler is putting his money on Rosario Marchese to win Trinity-Spadina. Take your money out of the stock market and bet it on Marchese. He survived the beating the NDP took in 1999 and it's made him battle tested tough this time out when it looks like the NDP will do a little better. Take this one to the bank.
03/03/03 Andrew L.
It's all about the students. Look at how hard Michael Valpe worked the UofT campus during the last federal for the NDP for an idea of how important the student/activist set is to the NDP in Trinity-Spadina. Sure enough, the UofT NDP has started working overtime for Marchese. So why aren't Pedro and the Libs doing more than just keeping the UofT Liberals up to date? Simple: the vote's going to happen after all the university students have gone home for the summer. That's a big blow for the NDP, and could prove the difference for the Martin-backed Pedro.
27/02/03 PMK
Safe NDP seat. Rosario Marchese is one of the best performers at Queen's Park. Plus, this riding nealy went NDP federally. It doesn't add up well for another one of Toronto School Board's haplessly incompetent Trustees- Lib Nello Pedro.
21/02/03 El Predicto
This riding should not be in the too close to call catagory. It is NDP heartland and like others have mentioned, the New Democrats have been energized by the Layton victory. Pedro is a better candidate than the Liberals had in Trinity-Spadina last time but it won't be enough. Mark this one down for the NDP.
04/02/03 Boris Lang
The Jack Layton effect should ensure that this seat will stay NDP while also resulting in the party likely picking up neighbouring Toronto Centre-Rosedale and Davenport.
30/01/03 JJ
The second safest NDP hold in the province, after Timmins-James Bay, and even a bit before Kenora-RR. Count Nellie Pedro as running for name recognition, for the municipal byelection if & when Olivia goes to Ottawa...
(Oops - I really should have listed Toronto-Danforth and Niagara Centre as about tied with the TS as safe NDP holds when I posted previously.)
17/01/03 TR
Email: tross@mobile.rogers.com
Nellie Pedro has become well respected with her stint as School trustee and has hit the ground running. She's got the finances and the support to unseat Rosario, who many see as a person who loves to hear himself talk.
29/12/02 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
This riding is a safe NDP seat with the highest NDP memberships(over 1,700) in the country. Even if the ONDP is at 15% in the polls this seat will be won by the ONDP along with Toronto Danforth with the second highest NDP emembership(over 1,600) in the country.
19/12/02 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
Did some digging and the ONDP has 1,723 members in this riding. This riding is the strongest riding in the country for the NDP at any level. This riding wil be won by the NDP with them at 22% in the polls. The result is not too close to call. The real issue is can the Tories save their deposit? No they cannot. The liberals will run respectable but lose.
05/12/02 SM
This riding is so solidly New Democrat provincially that my friends and I have taken to calling it The Free State. Rosario is still a popular MPP, regardless as to his placing in any poll carried out by NOW. The Liberals have bungled just about every oppertunity to really capture the public's heart since this parliament began in '99, and they're doing worse and worse as time goes on (do they think no one will notice their Hydro flip-flop?). Latest Environics poll has the NDP at 22%- there's no real contest in this riding.
26/11/02 ATGS
Rosario won nearly half the votes in 1999, and the NDP has climbed 6 points in the last 6 months (latest Environics - 18% now, roughly steady at 12% from 1999 - early 2002). Local dynamics may play a role, but this seat is going to stay NDP.
13/11/02 DH
Sorry to burst your bubble, AD, but your information is dated. You seem to be refering to Now Magazine's 2001 Reader's Survey, and the 2002 edition came out last month. Rosario wasn't named.
best local MPP
winner: Liberal George Smitherman
runner-up: NDP Marilyn Churley
Looks like Rosie's slipping in local popularity.
11/11/02 A.D.
We cannot forget that the citizens of the entire city choose two ND's as the best MPP's from TO, One of those was Rosie, and he definetly deserved the honor. It just shows you again that the grits will do anything to get candidates elected. I think the the "martin money" is nothing more than Corporate money from the feds who are trying to unseat the best MPP in TO (the other Cest MPP from TO was Marylin Churley from Toronto-Danforth)Note to all the peps in TS, Its not worth it!!!! We've seen to often that money has unseated amazing MPP's (Silipo, Grier, Boyd) we can let money ruin the politics. The tories are doing it by raising MPP wages and we have to vote for the best candidates. and in TS that is without question Rosie
09/11/02 JS
Rosiaro Marchese will win this riding, with a reduced plurality. Pedro is a credible candidate, but this is an NDP stronghold, not likely to fold unless the NDP's provincial numbers fall below 10%, which doesn't seem likely.
08/11/02 Andrew Cox
Email: andrewcox101@hotmail.com
EP, I speak the truth. Pedro raised $200,000 at one fundraiser alone. Rumour is she's gearing up to take the riding from the NDP with, of all things, lots of union money from labour organizer Tony Dionisio. Here is a story from the National Post, June 8, 2002:
"Rosario Marchese, the NDP MPP for Trinity-Spadina, might want to watch his back -- or dust off his C.V. Nellie Pedro, the nominated Liberal candidate in the funky Toronto riding that includes Little Italy and Queen West, raised an astonishing $200,000 at a fundraiser, eight days ago at a Wilson Avenue union hall. The Toronto District School Board Ward 9 Trustee had some help from Paul Martin, who delivered his final speech as Minister of Finance at her fundraiser. Pedro, who is popular in the riding's bustling Portuguese community, will only be allowed to spend about $40,000 during the writ period, meaning she already has $160,000 to spend on pamphlets and the like in the months leading up to an election expected next year. Grit insiders say they want to knock off Marchese, a seasoned veteran in one of the safer NDP seats."
Not saying money in politics is golden sunshine, but it sure is better to have a lot than not much.
07/11/02 EP
1/4 million = absurd. The spending limit of a riding this size is about 85000. Such figure is either total fudge, or it is a statement of the big money politics Pedro will play. Anyway, I think it would be more accurate to say that "The boys at Paul Martin office are well organized" rather than suggest Pedro is pulling the weight for the Liberals.
06/11/02 Andrew Cox
This is one of those very tricky ridings to predict, because of high turnover among renters and shifting ethnic groups. The rumour mill says Marchese won't run again (see Enterprise Canada newsletter of October.) Marchese out means some very big possibilities for the riding. If Olivia Chow runs, can she improve on her failed run for the federal seat in 1997? Would she run provincially, if husband Jack Layton is in Ottawa? Troubling questions for the NDP. Of deeper concern is that for the first time in years, the Liberals look like they are going to run a decent campaign in TS. The 1999 candidate (Albert Koehl) was a complete flake. In contrast, Nellie Pedro has already raised a quarter of a million dollars, is obviously well organized and will give the NDP a serious run. Her roots undermine Marchese's lead in the Portugese community. My gut says this is a seat the NDP could lose even if Marchese runs again.
04/11/02 Geneva
Nellie Pedro is the strong and credible candidate that will take this seat for the Liberals in the next election.
26/10/02 jcw
This race will be a close one. Both the ND's and Liberals have nominated strong and credible candidates in this constituency, which should lead to a very interesting race. I have a feeling that the ND's are going to give a huge fight for this riding, but I think that Pedro will come out on top. It will be very very close, maybe under 1000 votes either way. A strong PC candidate could shift soft liberal votes either way.
22/10/02 A.D
This is one, if not the, safest riding for the NDP in the province. It will be hard for any party to try and unseat a well like, hard-working and effective MPP like Rosie, no matter what party. But with his experience and likability placed with the NDP backing he is asure fire win. Nothing against the Grit who happens to be quite credible for a change, but unlease the NDP totally collapses here (quite unlikely) no one but the NDP will win!!! We will see Rosie at Queens park again after this election. O btw, the NDP double what both the Grits and Tories got in this riding last election.
16/10/02 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
While the Liberals have nominated a very credible candidate--school trustee Nellie Pedro--they're still banking their hopes on the provincial New Democrats drying up and blowing away in this, the mother of all urban-progressive NDP strongholds. The Marchese machine appears insurmountable, Pedro or no Pedro.

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