Election Prediction Project
Ontario Provincial Election 2003


Last Update:
4:41 PM 07/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
23 October 2002

Political Profile:

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Liberal Party:
Jim Davidson
Progressive Conservative:
George Sardelis
New Democratic Party:
Marilyn Churley
Green Party:
Michael Pilling

Marilyn Churley

Federal MP:
Dennis Mills

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

18150 46.92%

9554 24.7%

9553 24.69%

565 1.46%

543 1.4%

320 0.83%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality9 500
Dennis Mills
20 330 51.9%
Paula Turtle
10 830 27.7%
Rose A. Dyson
3 138 8%
Chris Butryn
3 021 7.7%

Demographic Profile:

(1996 census)


Avg Household Income

Labour Participation64.20%

Canadian Citizen

Canadian Born56.57%
Ontario Born47.75%
Visible Minority34.74%

First Language

Avg Dwelling Value$204020

College/Trade School16530

Authorized by the CFO for the Toronto Danforth Provincial Liberal Association
01/10/03 Gerard J. Kennedy
Churley has run a bad campaign and George and Davidson have run quite well. That won't mean anything here however as Churley will simply ride Howard's great campaign and Riverdale's die-hard NDPers to an easy win. She'll also be being supported by the Metropolitan Community Church who will want her around to help knock off the intensely homophobic Dennis Mills. Long live Jack Layton! Churley=41%/Sardelis=28%/Davidson=27%/Pilling=3%/Actchekzai=2%/Yagiz=0%
In the parts of the riding that I've been through, it appears that the Tories are better organized than the Liberals. That said, Churley should have no problem being safe here.
15/08/03 J.S
Email: jarrow_crusade1936@hotmail.com
One of the NDP's safest ridings, Churley has a 22% majority, and she go that in the Party's 1999 nadir. And that was in a riding where a significant proportion of her riding *were not used to her*. How *anybody* can say with a straight face that she is going down is beyond me. As far as the Social Contract goes: if the people of this riding were going to vote Churley out because of it, they would have done it in 1995. Not 2003.
04/07/03 Derek L.
Note to TDMB: Dennis Mills does not "Own" this riding. In fact he is hated by about half of the card carrying Liberals in the riding due to his extreme homophobia (in other words he considers about a quarter of the population of his riding to be 2nd class citizens) and his being a rightwing Catholic anti-abortion fanatic. I doubt if his role in getting the Rolling Stones will get him one single solitary extra vote in the next election. But enough about that we are here to discuss provincial politics. The NDP base in ridings like this is from the upper middle class intelligentsia NOT from the lumpenproletariat. If if fact the demographics of TD have changed so much, it helps Marilyn Churley and by proxy Jack Layton. Every time a socially conservative Greek Canadian sells their house off the Danforth to a trendy WASP it means one more vote for the NDP and one less votes for Vatican-controlled Dennis Mills and his provincial acolyte.
01/07/03 TDMB
Email: michael@ouican.biz
I've read everyone's comments, and a lot of them are valid. As a member of 3 unions, I can't say the Social Contract issue is one worth discussing anymore. That being said, the demographic of TD has changed dramatically in the last 4 years. Yes, there are a lot of us actors/artist types in the riding - but we're home owners and not living in abject poverty. I have two points; 1) Mills owns this riding federally. Since he's now the man who got us the Rolling Stones (regardless of how they were paid for or how much they cost), his seat is safe when the next federal election comes around. Jack, love him, would be a fool to try and run against him. 2) The Liberal candidate in the last election was, shall we say, lacking as a candidate. Jim Davidson is young, energized and has a lot of good ideas. I love Marilyn and have supported her for a long time, but I think she may have a run for her money
31/05/03 Beanie Baby
As much as I like Big George, if the Dippers didn't go last time around, they are in for the long haul. Strategic voting will be less of a factor this time and I believe that the NDP will make some ground at the Liberal's expense. Look for the NDP to retain all the seats they currently have and maybe even pick up one or two from the Liberals.
23/05/03 JS
"Reality Check" seems to have a personal grudge against the NDP. The NDP's majority here is solid, and although the Grits will come second here, it will take a LOT of tactical voting to get rid of the NDP here. And, thankfully, that is very unlikely to happen. The NDP might actually make a net gain of seats this election, even if their vote goes down(which looks unlikely). Tactical voting to oust Tory incumbents will see the NDP gain seats.
23/05/03 Craig
No change here. Virtually no one cares about the Social Contract anymore, and she survived the last two elections easily so Churley is safe, in fact, the margin should increase over 50%. The Liberals will probably make gains at the expense of the Tories but it won't be enough to make serious inroads. Predicted results: NDP 51%, LIB 33%, PC 13%, Green 2%.
15/05/03 Grizz
Uncle Grizz is in agreement with all those union brothers and sisters and cousins and grandparents who feel this is going to stay NDP. Percentage wise they got close to double that of the PC or Liberals. This is also the riding that Jack Layton will most likely run in when a federal election is called.
15/05/03 Mike
This discussion board is about who will win this seat, not about whether a decade-old piece of legislation is right or wrong. Clearly, if voters were to "punish" Marilyn Churley they would have done it two elections ago. Instead she won the last two elections quite handily. Now that you've all had your say, perhaps its time to let the Social Contract discussion go, since it will not influence this coming election and certainly will not defeat Marilyn Churley.
13/05/03 Reality Check
Nothing gets the NDP more upset that anyone mentioning the Social Contract. Look at how nasty the responses are to that one person who dared utter the forbidden words, Social Contract. The New Democrats need a reality check. The Social Contract did happen. The question now is as a New Democrat in 2003, do you support the idea that it's alright for the provincial government to use it's powers to break collective agreements? Marilyn Churley still says she supports the move Bob Rae made to bring in the legislation known as the Social Contract. It's clear that some union members in OPSEU and CUPE still don't agree with her. The reality is that the NDP don't have any defence for what they did with the Social Contract so when ever the issue comes up, they just attack anyone who dares to mention it. Want to know one of the reasons why the NDP will be fighting it out with the Green Party for third place in this election? It's the failure to deal with issues like this. Time for these angry New Democrats to wake up and smell the coffee.
05/05/03 ARL
To Jim and Cindy: And since when are the Liberals great friends of labour? Do you think a McGuinty government will bring back the anti-scab law or reverse Tory changes to labour law that made it harder for unions to organise? You've got to be kidding, The Liberals are first and foremost a party of big business, the provincial Liberals don't even support the federal Liberal government's decision to ban corporate donations to partes. There's no way a McGuinty government will be a friend of labour.
04/05/03 Derek L.
I wonder whether this "Cindy" is even a member of CUPE. "Her" palid attempt to raise the social contract 10 years later sounds like a feeble attempt my a few sophomoric Liberals to throw some dirt. I suspect that "Cindy" (he she is even actually female) probably drives a BMW to her high paying job in the private sector, has never owned a union card in her life and probably is a shill for the Liberal Party
27/04/03 UnionProud
Email: ieatpoliticalmeat@hotmail.com
I'm a little suspicious of the union sister who chose to anonymously post that she will be voting Liberal. She certainly doesn't think like any CUPE member I've met. When there was a strike at my work the NDP was there once a week. Liberals were never there. When the sisters and brothers of CUPE 2295 walked off their jobs at the TD Centre Rosario Marchese and Marilyn Churley joined them on the line and marched with them to the Labour Board. I never saw a Liberal there either. When the Tories tried to force city workers back on the job and put Guy Giorno in charge of arbitration Marchese and Churley stood up for workers while the Liberals rolled over and did what the Tories told them. I know which side Marchese and Churley are on. I never know with the Liberals. At every gathering of CUPE and OPSEU I've been to no one mentions "social contract" they talk about the Liberals wishy washy stance on privatization and contracting out.
24/04/03 Cindy
I've been a proud member of CUPE for twenty years. Here's two words Marilyn Churley doesn't like to hear. Social Contract. The NDP died for me the day that Marilyn and the rest of the NDP caucus stood up in the Ontario legislature and voted in favour of the Social Contract. Marilyn was a member of cabinet who basically said that it's alright for the government to use it's power to break legal union contracts. There are tens of thousands of public union members like me who will never support Marilyn Churley or anyone else that voted for the Social Contract. She stabbed us in the back. So now I guess NDP supporters who post comments on this site will go ahead and attack me. You can go right ahead. It won't change the fact that Marilyn and the NDP government did bring in the Social Contract and nothing you can say will ever change that.
19/04/03 ARL
"Reality Check" seems completely ignorant of the fact that the NDP got 12% in the last election yet still won Toronto-Danforth. Why he expects them to lose at 11% (assuming that figure doesn't grow during the election campaign) is a mystery.
19/04/03 Mike
Get real, Reality Check. EKOS polls are known for producing artificially high numbers for the Liberals, and low numbers for their opponents. Now if the next Environics poll shows similar numbers, than the NDP is in that much trouble. Regardless, even if the NDP is down slightly from last election, Marilyn Churley would be a survivor.
17/04/03 Reality Check
The NDP are running at 11 per cent. It's time for New Democrats to face the reality that they belong to a fringe party. The Liberals now have FIVE TIMES the support that the NDP have. Churley is going to lose her riding. The NDP won't even have official party status in the Ontario legislature after the election.
21/03/03 Paul
Hopefully the Lib and PC candidate don't put anything naughty in their literature. Churley may host a book burning or two during the campaign, but only insiders will recall her decrying a work of fiction during a by-election. Oh well. Parliament will be better served by debating whether to give the NDP party status when they return maybe five or six members to the house. And Churley will likely be there.
18/03/03 Derek L.
So, MG claims that "artists/TV types" make up the bulk of the population of Toronto-Danforth. That has to be one of the most ludicrous things I've read here in a long time. 70,000 people live in the riding of Toronto-Danforth. Does anyone seriously believe that over 35,000 of them are either starving artists or work for the CBC??? Are there anywhere near 35,000 people in the whole GTA who are employed directly in the arts or in television - lat alone in one riding??? The "artistic" people in Toronto-Danforth may have a high profile but I would be surprised if they were more than 5% of the riding. Of that 5% I wonder if more that 5 or 6 individuals have so much of a soft spot in their hearts for Bob Hunter and his pedophile fantasies that it would make them vote against Marilyn Churley? Come on!
15/02/03 Adam Sobolak
Email: adma@interlog.com
And as we're reminded here and again, this is where, come next federal election, Jack Layton will be running. Nice icing on the Churley cake, and add the fact that East Yorkers are probably used to her now, and she may be headed for 50%+...
12/02/03 A.D.
WEll i guess MG had to post that note twice to get their point across!!! This is such a strong riding for the NDP and to say the she isn't a good critic means that you need to pay more attention to QP. She WAS the environment critic and no one scared more torries than her!!!! she was more aggressive and more probing than the Grit critic (that can be said about all of the Grits, they seem to be ineffectual!!!) but this riding has the seocnd highest number of members across the province and to think that the way the liberal controlled media messed that story up is absurd, we all know where that story came from.... and it wasn't the NDP who leaked it!!!! well i' just saying that Marylin is as safe as Dalton is!!!!!
28/01/03 M.G.
Churley used to be well-liked - but she's really annoyed a lot of the artsy types in this riding - with her attacks on Bob Hunter during the Beaches-East York by-election in 2001. Basically, Churley argued that a writer can and should be attacked for writing a piece of fiction with subject matter she finds objectionable. This was the kind of thing you'd expect from the Alliance, but not the NDP. Artists/T.V. types, who make up the bulk of this riding, won't easily forget that. Voters are growing generally tired of her - she's not that effective a critic anymore and rumours swelled in the fall she was about to take a Tory appointment, until Hampton begged her to stay. A strong Liberal campaign should be able to knock her off - to the surprise of most New Democrats across the province.
29/12/02 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
Toronto Danforth has the second highest NDP membership(over 1,600) in the country next only to Trinity Spadina. THis is a safe NDP seat.
22/10/02 Burke
If Marilyn Churley decides to seek re-election the NDP will be able to retain Toronto-Danforth. This urban riding is very progressive and she is well known in the riding. Issues like the Environment and Education are high priority issues in this riding and the the Tories are not really a factor here. If the Liberals run a high-profile candidate they may pose a challenge to Ms. Churley. However, my money is on the NDP in this riding.

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