www.electionprediction.com
Ontario Provincial Election 2003
Thornhill
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Last Update: 5:05 PM 07/10/2003 
Prediction Changed: 10:02 PM 30/09/2003 |
Political Profile:
Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
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Liberal Party: Mario Racco |
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Progressive Conservative: Tina Molinari |
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New Democratic Party: Laurie Orrett |
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Green Party: Bridget Haworth |
Incumbent: | |
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Tina Molinari |
Federal MP: | |
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Hon. Elinor Caplan |
1999 Result:
1999 Prediction
| Plurality | 343 | |
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TINA MOLINARI | |
| 19580 | 48.21% | |
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DAN RONEN | |
| 19237 | 47.36% | |
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NATHAN DAVID ROTMAN | |
| 1438 | 3.54% | |
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RUTH VON BEZOLD | |
| 360 | 0.89% | |
2000 Federal Result: 2000 Prediction | ||
| Plurality | 20 509 | |
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Elinor Caplan | |
| 27 152 | 64.6% | |
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Robert Goldin | |
| 6 643 | 15.8% | |
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Lou Watson | |
| 6 338 | 15.1% | |
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Nathan Rotman | |
| 1 653 | 3.9% | |
Demographic Profile:
| Population | |
| 2001 | 116840 |
| 1996 | 106628 |
| 1991 | 95291 |
(1996 census) Age | |
| 0-19 | 32340 |
| 20-39 | 29970 |
| 40-59 | 31575 |
| 60+ | 12745 |
Avg Household Income | $79922 |
| Labour Participation | 70.30% |
| Unemployment | 6.90% |
Canadian Citizen | 89.35% |
| Canadian Born | 55.58% |
| Ontario Born | 48.82% |
| Immigrant | 43.63% |
| Visible Minority | 27.35% |
| Aboriginal | 0.07% |
First Language | |
| English | 63320 |
| French | 1220 |
| Chinese | 9945 |
| Italian | 4680 |
| Russian | 3345 |
| Hebrew | 2970 |
Residence | |
| House | 77.82% |
| Apartment | 22.17% |
| Owned | 81.47% |
| Rented | 18.53% |
| Avg Dwelling Value | $295474 |
Education | |
| University | 34665 |
| College/Trade School | 19215 |
| Secondary | 23635 |
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01/10/03 | LGIO Email: | |
| I agree...Mario Racco has gone so far as to have his wife run for Ward Councillor in Vaughan...add to that the fact that she is using his surname, something she has never done, and the fact that she registered on the last possible day, so as to avoid potential media flack. | |||
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01/10/03 | Judi Bud Email: | |
| I'm more than willing to go out on a limb and say that Tina Molinari will be one of the upset winners we'll see. Not because Tina is anything special. She isn't but Tina has one thing going for her. His name is Mario Racco who has personally turned off thousands of voters in Thornhill over the past six months. When all the ballots are counted, the Liberals will have wished they'd run another candidate because Racco will have cost them Thornhill. | |||
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25/09/03 | Wild Thornberry Email: | |
| RL misses the point. Wedge issues can make a difference, but in the case of Thornhill the sinking popularity of the Liberals far exceeds the number of Orthodox Jews who voted for Ronen in '99 who are going to vote Tory because of the tax credit. I'm sure there's also a fair number of Jews who oppose the tax credit who voted for Tina in '99 and are now going for Racco.
To the person who pointed out that the Jewish vote split in Thornhill in '99. We don't know how it went, though it's likely there was a blip because of Ronen, with right-wing, Orthodox elements joining the more secular majority in their support for the Liberals. It's likely the non-Jewish elements of the riding voted for the Tories at the level of other 905 ridings like Markham that year. While the Canadian Jewish Congress likes to pretend that support for the tax credit in the community is overwhelming, the "evidence" is pretty light. A look at the letter written in the Canadian Jewish News (this country's biggest Jewish newspaper) over the past few months shows it's a contentious issue rather than a unifying one. Almost all the letters in support of the tax credit seem to come from the same three people, two of them publicly known for their activism on behalf of funding religious schools. In contrast, letters in opposition come from a variety of people, and a few who support the credit are nonetheless unable to stomach voting PC because of their opposition to Harris/Eves. Only about 1/4 of Jewish elementary and secondary students attend religious schools, so probably close to 2/3 are in public schools. An article in the highly pro-tax credit CJN conceded that a substantial number of parents with kids in the public school system have made their opposition to the tax credit known. Just about everyone who is familiar with Jewish voting patterns in this country, even right-wingers like David Frum (much to his frustration), notes the general liberalism of the community, despite their rise to middle class status. I estimate that the Tories got 25-30% of the Jewish vote in '99, and my guess is that number will not budge on Oct. 2. The support for the tax credit will be offset by those who fervently oppose the Tory government. | |||
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25/09/03 | david Email: | |
| Sorry, I also forgot to add that Ronen was an EXTREMELY popular candidate in the the Thornhill community and said that he would fight for the private school credit, and look how close the election outcome was! He is now giving his support to Molinari becasue of this single issue. And also, Ronen had a much more organised campaign then Racco. | |||
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25/09/03 | David Email: dgoldbergerd1@hotmail.com | |
| Molinari will not only win the "Jewish" vote due to Private School Tax Credits. The Jewish people, who consist of over 35% of this riding, fell they were represented quite well during the past 4 years. Why is this? 1. Molinari worked hard for making Zarainu, a popular charity that is the first on the scene after terrorsit attacks, an organisation recognised by the government. 2. She has also took part in many Jewish related galas that various organisations held. She is viewed in a very positive light by the Jewish community, and if you don't think the tax credit issue will win her the votes, her efforts for the different causes surely will. | |||
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24/09/03 | Gerry Kennedy Email: | |
| Considering the Tory wave floating across the province I do not know how one can predict that this is going to Molinari. Her cabinet profile was very low and she won a squeaker last time. I must agree that Private School Tax Credits are going her way but the notion that Jewish people will only vote on this one issue is just plain insulting. People understand that sending their children to private schools is an economic sacrifice they willingly make. | |||
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24/09/03 | Email: | |
| The general swing from PC to Liberal in the province seems pretty significant. That should mean that this riding, which was Tory by only 340 votes last time should go Liberal. I'm perfectly willing to accept that the Liberal win will be smaller than would otherwise be expected because of the school tax credit issue, but I don't accept that the Jewish community in this riding are either monolithic in their political priorities or single-issue voters once these priorities are identified. | |||
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24/09/03 | All Things Must Pass Email: | |
| This could be real close but I think the Liberals went wrong with Mario Racco as their candidate. This could be the difference. Tina Molinari has been much better in the all candidate debates and Racco's reputation in the community hasn't helped the Liberals. I think the Liberals might have pulled Thornhill out with any other candidate. | |||
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22/09/03 | TOM Email: tomtomtom@aol.com | |
| It's been hyped to such an extent that it amkes you sick, but it's worth re-itterating. PRIVATE SCHOOL TAX REBATES IS THE ISSUE THAT WILL DECIDE THE RIDING! Both candidates are extremely well liked. The Conservatives are not hated at all in this riding, and the Liberals are like as well. People in Thronhill are unpredictable in their voting patterns, it always changes hands. It's never a lock for either party ever. With that being said, the issues of Private Schools is whats going to make undecided voters vote PC. Especially in such a tight race. Predication: PC 47% LIB 44% 5% NDP 4% OTH | |||
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22/09/03 | Ipso Facto Email: | |
| From what I have been reading in this forum, many of the people who are predicting Mario Racco to win do not live in this riding. On the ground, things appear very different. Some of you have harkened back to 1999, when the Tories won here by a very small margin, and now you assume that since the Tories are weaker than in 1999, this riding will go to Liberals. Don't bet on it. In 1999, I was pretty sure Dan Ronen was a lock then. Firstly, everyone forgets the rather offensive poll questions that Tina's gang started (I was privy to one of their interrogations about my affinity of voting for the son of a Holocaust survivor.) Tina did not fair well during debates, often coming off as either flustered or condescending. And yet the Jewish vote split, and she won, albiet by a hair.Flip to 2003, and there are about 4 Molinari signs in this riding for every Racco won. Mario Racco was also implicated in a few questionable funding issues, and is genuinely thought of as, well, kind of slimy. Tina on the other hand, has been very visible at community events, and you can't underwrite the tax credit issue. This is admittedly the crumbs on the table, but the opposition has made it clear they intend to take away the crumbs. I have even heard people who are against the tax credit saying that while they will not whore their vote out for $500, with Mario Racco as the alternative, their hands are tied to vote Tory. Dalton McGuinty paid an early visit hear once, and I don't think he's coming back. Last time he was here three times that I'm aware of. As a Liberal campaigner told me, "That riding is lost. Racco is just the wrong candidate." What you vote is you business, but the smart money is on Tina. | |||
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22/09/03 | RL Email: | |
| I really responding because I disagree with the last post. There is something to be said about wedge issues which is totally neglected. Wedge issues drive people to vote for a candidate despite the fact that they may disagree with other things on a platform. In this case, the ETCC is such an issue for Jewish and other groups who support the government's plans to give relief to people who send their children to private schools. | |||
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20/09/03 | Wild Thornberry Email: mattnfodor@hotmail.com | |
| This riding looks like a Liberal pickup. Tina barely won last time, and though Mario Racco isn't the most exciting candidate, his victory should be quite significant.
The tax-credit issue will have some effect on how the Jewish vote goes, but it won't be a deciding factor. People are correct to argue that Jewish voters in North America based their decisions on "Jewish" issues (such as schools or support for Israel), in sharp contrast to say, Italian-Canadians and Italian-Americans, there are no "Italian" issues. But those who are quick to say the "Jewish vote" will go PC because of the tax credit issue seem to be unaware of the relative liberalism in Jewish voting behavior, especially when controlling for social class differences, a trend evident in Canada, the US and the UK. For instance, the one (extremely detailed) study of Jewish voting behavior in Canada in the postwar period showed that Jews vote massively Liberal compared to the general population, with under-support for conservatives and controlling for unionization, occupation and education, over-support for the NDP. While there is evidence of a movement toward the Republicans in the US in the post-9/11 period, no shift has been demonstrated among Canadian Jews. The rightwing Jewish Alliance candidates got trounced in the last federal election, who also made support for religious schools a significant part of their campaigns. And many submitters to electionprediction also made the assumption that Thornhill, York Centre and Willowdale would go Alliance. Even non-Orthodox Jews who support the tax credit aren't necessarily going to vote conservatively because of the tax credit. One element of the Jewish community stands out from the liberalism trend: Orthodox Jews, representing 10-15% of Toronto Jewry, perhaps somewhat higher in Thornhill. (The most assimilated, highly-educated and left-leaning Jews are heavily concentrated in the Old City of Toronto, where they make up a very large proportion of the intelligentsia). This group is quite politically conservative, and not just on "Jewish" issues, although those issues are obviously crucial. So let's say 15% of Thornhill's Jewish population (1/3 of riding) is Orthodox - 5% of the riding as a whole. And let's say 80% of them vote for Molinari, giving 4%. 28% of the riding then, would be made up of non-Orthodox, and probably 20% vote PC - let's round it up to 6%. So overall the Jewish vote will be about 30% PC, maybe 6% NDP, 2% Greens and 62% Liberal. Then let's say the non-Jewish 67% of the vote (largely Chinese and Italian-Canadian) goes 45% PC, 50% Liberal, 4% NDP and 1% Greens. Then altogether the riding goes: 54% Liberal, 40% PC, 5% NDP, 1% Greens. | |||
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20/09/03 | Wild Thornberry Email: mattnfodor@hotmail.com | |
| This riding looks like a Liberal pickup. Tina barely won last time, and though Mario Racco isn't the most exciting candidate, his victory should be quite significant.
The tax-credit issue will have some effect on how the Jewish vote goes, but it won't be a deciding factor. People are correct to argue that Jewish voters in North America based their decisions on "Jewish" issues (such as schools or support for Israel), in sharp contrast to say, Italian-Canadians and Italian-Americans, there are no "Italian" issues. But those who are quick to say the "Jewish vote" will go PC because of the tax credit issue seem to be unaware of the relative liberalism in Jewish voting behavior, especially when controlling for social class differences, a trend evident in Canada, the US and the UK. For instance, the one (extremely detailed) study of Jewish voting behavior in Canada in the postwar period showed that Jews vote massively Liberal compared to the general population, with under-support for conservatives and controlling for unionization, occupation and education, over-support for the NDP. While there is evidence of a movement toward the Republicans in the US in the post-9/11 period, no shift has been demonstrated among Canadian Jews. The rightwing Jewish Alliance candidates got trounced in the last federal election, who also made support for religious schools a significant part of their campaigns. And many submitters to electionprediction also made the assumption that Thornhill, York Centre and Willowdale would go Alliance. Even non-Orthodox Jews who support the tax credit aren't necessarily going to vote conservatively because of the tax credit. One element of the Jewish community stands out from the liberalism trend: Orthodox Jews, representing 10-15% of Toronto Jewry, perhaps somewhat higher in Thornhill. (The most assimilated, highly-educated and left-leaning Jews are heavily concentrated in the Old City of Toronto, where they make up a very large proportion of the intelligentsia). This group is quite politically conservative, and not just on "Jewish" issues, although those issues are obviously crucial. So let's say 15% of Thornhill's Jewish population (1/3 of riding) is Orthodox - 5% of the riding as a whole. And let's say 80% of them vote for Molinari, giving 4%. 28% of the riding then, would be made up of non-Orthodox, and probably 20% vote PC - let's round it up to 6%. So overall the Jewish vote will be about 30% PC, maybe 6% NDP, 2% Greens and 62% Liberal. Then let's say the non-Jewish 67% of the vote (largely Chinese and Italian-Canadian) goes 45% PC, 50% Liberal, 4% NDP and 1% Greens. Then altogether the riding goes: 54% Liberal, 40% PC, 5% NDP, 1% Greens. | |||
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17/09/03 | Frozen Toast Email: | |
| The Jewish community is backing Molinari and the Tories because of the private school tax credit issue. They make up 35% of the vote in Thornhill. When any group this size votes in a block, it means they get what they want. Rocca doesn't have a chance and Molinari wins. | |||
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17/09/03 | joe Email: | |
| Would personally like to see intellectually marginal PC's like Molinari be among the first to fall, but the Liberals unfortunately chose a candidate who makes "choose change" difficult; Racco's main qualification seems to be he's one of Sorbara's "boys". As a speaker, either could clear a room faster than old cheese (put politely). However, there are far too many people who stand to profit from Uncle Ernie's tax give-aways for Molinari to screw this up. After all, as that noted capitalist Peter Pocklington once said, "greed always overcomes good judgement." Hence, this riding will remain PC, probably by around 5%. | |||
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05/09/03 | S.G. Email: | |
| Well this riding is interesting since you have two Italian Catholics in the Libs and PCs fighting over a riding that's 35% Jewish and 15% Chinese. So it will be interesting to see how the vote falls along the ethnic lines. I certainly agree with previous posters that it is a fallacy to say that Jewish support for private school funding is unanimous, however I would estimate that it does comprise the majority of the community, and given Molinari's higher profile as a junior cabinet minister, and her evident regard for the concern of her constituents, I think she'll pull it off in a close race. Only a really bad Tory campaign will give this riding to the Libs, in my opinion. | |||
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/09/03 | RBC Email: | |
| This riding will stay with Tina Molinari. If you don't think the school tax credits will be an issue in this riding, you have something else coming. It will mobilize a large segment of the Jewish community that has never bothered voting before. I predict turnout in this riding will be higher than 65%. This will help Tina Molinari win. | |||
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03/09/03 | M.T.C Email: | |
| I know that I've posted here before commenting in the probable Tory win in Thornhill, but tonight I'm so much more sure of the organizational power that the Molinari campaign has. I was driving home from one end of Thornhill and I saw dozens of Molinari signs and maybe 2 or 3 Racco lawn signs. Maybe the Molinari team was just more preapred out of the gate...but maybe Racco just doesn't have very much support in Thornhill. Either way, things don't look so good for Mario. | |||
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01/09/03 | Craig Email: | |
| This is clearly a marginal Tory riding, and the voice out there is for change. The platform aimed at 905 area ridings will reduce the margin of victory for Mario Racco, but the base was already very weak, and this seat will still go Liberal. This riding has a lot more in common with ridings in the outer parts of the city of Toronto than the rest of York Region (which is certainly the most marginal area in the 905 to begin with for the Tories!). The private school tax credit does not help many people, in any riding, and shouldn't win many votes. On October 2nd, Mario Racco will still take this riding away from Tina Molinari. Current prediction: Racco 49%, Molinari 43%, Orrett 4%, Haworth 3%, others 1%. | |||
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01/08/03 | Road Rage Email: | |
| The Liberal came close in Thornhill last time because Dan Ronen had an great team behind him and the issues were with him. This time almost everyone in Ronen's team is working for Tina. They are an experienced group and give her another advantage over Racco. One more advantage Tina has is that she has an organization based all over the riding, while the Liberals are better in Racco section of the riding but weak in the rest. | |||
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28/07/03 | MF Email: | |
| With the increase for the Liberals provincially and decrease for the Tories, this riding will go Liberal (after all, Molinari only won by a few hundred votes). The school funding issue will not make this riding go Tory because of the (false) perception that Jews overwhelmingly back the tax credit. There is a diversity of the opinion on the issue in the Jewish community - among the non-Orthodox majority most are strong supporters the public school system and are traditionally big Liberal supporters (despite National Post propaganda during the 2000 election). | |||
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25/07/03 | Uncle Buck Email: | |
| Tina Monlinari is going to be the Marilyn Mushinski of the 2003 election. Mushinski looked finished but she got lucky that the other parties put up terrible candidates against her. Molinari would have been in serious trouble if the Liberals had a good candidate. Lucky for Tina, Mario Racco won a dirty Liberal nomination. Voters given the chance to compare the two against each other will have no choice but to vote for Tina. I know because I'm a Liberal and I could never bring myself to vote for Racco in a million years. | |||
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18/07/03 | Paint My Fence Email: | |
| Tina Molinari has done a lot of work in her riding to develop the kind of campaign team that will help her keep Thornhill. Mario Racco makes a lot of noise but doesn't have the kind of campaign team to challenge Tina. I can see Tina winning her seat by 2000 votes this time. | |||
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18/07/03 | Hi Tech Email: | |
| It's true that Eleanor Caplan and her organization are not helping Mario Racco in the provincial election. Part of the reason is that Caplan doesn't like Racco but there's one other one. Eleanor's son,David Caplan is in the middle of a life and death battle with a very popular city councillor in Don Valley East. Eleanor has sent all her troop over to help David try to keep his job. No matter what the reason, Mario Racco will have no help from the very powerful federal Liberal machine. This leaves Tina Molinari with a very easy road to winning again. | |||
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15/07/03 | Derek L. Email: | |
| This riding is an open and shut case. It is just about the most marginal Tory seat in Ontario. It went Tory by just 350 votes in 1999 when the Tories were sweeping 905-land. Now their vote is collapsing. The Liberals won neighbouring Vaughan-King-Aurora by a huge margin in the byelection. As far as the private school tax credit is concerned, remember that a good 90% of parents in Thornhill send their kids to PUBLIC schools. I seem to recall the Canadian Alliance candidate in this seat trying to upset Elinor Caplan federally by trotting out a promise to create huge tax breaks for private school tuition. Caplan beat him 70%-12%. When all is said and done Jewish and Italian voters tend to identify more as Liberals than do run of the mill WASP suburbanites. A riding like Thornhill can only go Tory when they are sweeping the province. Something that they most certainly are not going to do this Fall are stumbling, bumbling Ernie and his mistress Isabel "Marie Antoinette" Bassett. | |||
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07/07/03 | Sluggo Email: | |
| Federal MP Eleanor Caplan is not a supporter of Mario Racco and has kept here team from getting involved in his campaign. Without the federal troops, Racco has no chance to beat Tina Molinari. Tina has spent her time putting together a large campaign team that makes her stronger this time than she was in 1999. | |||
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03/07/03 | Nomad Email: | |
| Mambo King is correct in his belief that the private school tax credit bill clinched this riding for Tina Molinari. With the passage of the bill, there are dozens of new private schools opening for the fall school year. These schools will offer people in Thornhill just about any type of program they could want for their children and there is going to be a large number of children leaving the public school system. There is no going back now for ridings like this. They will vote Tory to keep this system of private schools alive. Mario Racco just can't overcome a local issue like this. | |||
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27/06/03 | Mambo King Email: | |
| The Tories clinched this riding when they passed their school tax credit legislation this week. There is no way Mario Racco can go door to door here and tell people to vote for him and he'll take away the tax credit from your family. Tina Molinari will play this issue to the hilt and ride it to an easy win. | |||
| 31/05/03 | A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com | ||
| Considering that Thornhill merited what was probably the first "absurd" NDP prediction of this election, may I report that, indeed, the New Democrats are fielding, under the circumstances as good a candidate as could be imagined: activist Laurie Orrett, who landed a strong second to Greg Sorbara in (when else?!?) 1990. (And got more votes than *any* NDPer in that election--but only because York Region's population explosion had struck the former York Centre with electoral elephantiasis.) But still; this is Thornhill in 2003, and the NDP'll have to settle for the predictable "moral victory" at best--if they're super-lucky, an earned-back deposit or something. (Or they ought to bite their nails, as NDP was fourth to Greens versus Sorbara's next-door comeback...) | |||
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02/06/03 | LGIO Email: | |
| True - there are many disgruntled voters and people who might easily vote Liberal. But the fact is that Mario Racco is unpolished and does not exude any confidence or self-assuredness. When all the factors are weighed, the choice of Racco will be the Liberals undoing. | |||
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27/05/03 | Craig Email: | |
| What you do not realize 'Reality Check' is that the margin last time was 343 votes. That means if 172 Tory votes from that election become Liberal votes, they lose the seat. It will take one protest to come up with that vote total. The only way the Tories will hold on is if they can get back in the lead in the polls and Molinari has a very clean campaign. | |||
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21/05/03 | Reality Check Email: | |
| Grizz and Craig are in need of a reality check. Grizz will find that ridings like Thornhill are a little more right wing than Quebec politics. The reality here is that Tina Molinari has raised her profile in the last four years. She has the private school tax credit on her side and that gives her a big edge. The Liberals had a better candidate in 1999 and didn't win and that was their chance. Tina will win with a bigger spread this time. Watch for Racco to self destruct during the campaign. | |||
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20/05/03 | Grizz Email: | |
| Wave bye-bye Tina. Your party is collapsing and you won by little over 300 votes last time. That means soon Mario will be sitting in your chair at Queens Park. | |||
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15/05/03 | Craig Email: | |
| Remember the Tories won this seat by about one percentage point in 1999 - and they are about 25 points lower in the polls in the 905 area (15 province wide). That is where the numbers come from. | |||
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13/05/03 | Reality Check Email: | |
| Craig is making a lot of predictions but what he needs is a reality check. The Liberals winning every seat in the York region? The Liberals are doing well in the polls but they will never get the 57 per cent of the vote Craig mentioned. The reality here is that Molinari caught a break when the Liberals decided on Racco as the candidate. Mario is unknown in a big section of the riding or he's too well know in the smaller end. This will still be a Tory seat on election night. | |||
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07/05/03 | Craig Email: | |
| Like all the seats in York Region and the inner 905, this is going Liberal. Molinari barely won last time, and with Tory support much lower now, the Liberals will easily take this riding - it won't even be close! Predicted results: LIB 57%, PC 33%, NDP 5%, Green 3%. | |||
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21/04/03 | MTC Email: | |
| Tina Molinari has served Thornhill well, and most people east of Dufferin have neve even heard of Mario Racco. She's gained alot of popularity in the riding from her work on the Education Tax Credit for religious schools and for having much of the responsibility for saving Settler's Park. The NDP don't even have a candidate, and there's alot of divisions in the Liberal party because of the candidate nomination process. This riding will go Conservative again without a doubt. | |||
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27/03/03 | Scott R. Email: | |
| Thorhill will likely go Liberal this time unless the party has a major collapse like in 1999. This is a real swing riding and PC support has certainly not grown in any way. | |||
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26/03/03 | THE GAMBLER Email: | |
| The Gambler is putting his money on Tina Molinari to win Thornhill. LIB Mario Racco has a poor track record in municipal races while Tina is used to running at this level. Tina is a sure thing and you can take that to the bank. | |||
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25/03/03 | RWA Email: | |
| If the NDP is growing in organizational strength as some say, that can only hurt the Liberals' chances at a steal here. The reintroduction of the provate school tax credit will also help the Tories. | |||
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01/03/03 | AL Email: | |
| Thornhill will stay Tory. WHile Tory support as a whole has dropped significantly, the tory support in the 905 region has not changed very much, at least not enough to let Thornhill slip...and with a small NDP groundswell here things look even worse for the Liberals | |||
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21/02/03 | El Predicto Email: | |
| Last time Liberal Dan Ronen came within a couple hundred votes of beating Tory Tina Molinari in Thornhill. It was bad news for the Liberals when Ronen did't want to take another shot at the riding. Liberal candidate Mario Racco is nowhere near as strong a candidate for the Liberals this time. Mario has another problem. The Jewish vote that came out for Ronen in 1999 is not happy with Dalton McGuinty because he doesn't support the tax credit for private schools. Molinari has played a major role for the Tories, especially after the death of Al Paladini. Tina took over much of the Tory outreach to minority groups after Al passed away and this will pay off for her in Thornhill. This one is an easy call for a Tory victory. Mark this one down for the Tories. | |||
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08/02/03 | ES Email: | |
| I'm amazed at the lack of thought presented by some of those who post here. Ms. Molinari has done a very good job representing the riding and being visible and countless local events. If anything, Ms. Molinari put her riding first and slowly increased her provincial portfolio, a wise move in my mind. She is not simply "eye candy" as Mr. Kunzler would suggest. The comparison to her federal counterpart is a moot point, but since it is raised... at least Ms. Molinari's Constituency office responds to telephone calls and delivers results. As for Mario Racco, he's hung on to his local seat by the seat of his pants for years. Here's a fact for all these "Liberals" here. Mario Racco has been acclaimed in recent campaigns and hasn't had a real fight on his hands in nearly a decade. I don't think he has the political savvy or intellectual ability to muster a strong campaign or be an effective representative. People can see right through him, and they will do so come election time. He barely won the Liberal nomination and polarized the members there. Regardless of the lies he tries to spew through his various vehicles, the result will be the same... TORIES TAKE THORNHILL | |||
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04/02/03 | RBC Email: | |
| This riding will stick with Tina Molinari. She has done an excellent job on riding outreach, and has built many bridges into the various community groups. The Liberals "made" a mistake with Racco, who is not well-liked by many in the riding. Susan Kadis would have been a safer choice. Now, you have both mayors of Vaughan and Markham endorsing Tina. Caplan will not be a major factor in this race, but school funding could be the line that splits the Jewish vote, in Tina's favour. | |||
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15/01/03 | Josef Kunzler Email: josef_kunzler@hotmail.com | |
| Considering the unofficial fact that Tina Molinari is nothing more or less than the Tory counter to Sandra Pupatello - and a cheap knock-off at that - and that the NDP will never take Thornhill, I expect the Liberals to take this riding. Elanor Caplan is irrelevant in provincial politics and besides, people have had about enough of the Toryban. | |||
| 16/12/02 | B. Nicpon Email: | ||
| Ok, I've been refraining from making predictions this early, but I just have to point something out, regardless of the time factor: THE NDP WILL NOT WIN THORNHILL. I'm sorry, but I don't see how anyone could come in here and predict an NDP victory in this riding. I know every party had its pundits, but you have to be reasonable about your predictions. We're not talking about Windsor-St. Clair or Algoma-Manitoulin here or some riding where the NDP have a probably of winning higher than that of me inventing time travel with the components of my microwave. Let's be serious here people: The NDP got 1400 votes here last time, and there is certainly not sufficient reason to expect they'll be able to improve those numbers enough to even contest the seat. | |||
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05/12/02 | E.S. Email: | |
| Although A.S. raises some related factors (the Sorbara victory), it does not effectively correlate into this particular riding for a few reasons. Firstly, Sorbara won partially on his previous successful work as an MPP regardless of his political banner. He worked hard and earned trust. Period. As for the Liberal's having a "star candidate" in 1999, I think that's well off the mark. Dan Ronen's greatest notoriety was being the brother of the head of the Canadian Jewish Congress. What he did do was use some of the family influence to try and wrestle this riding from the Tories. But Ronen did not come across as a clear choice and really had his puppet strings showing throughout the campaign. In 2003, there is the likelihood of "more of the same". I would bet that Mr. A.S. does not live in the Thornhill area, but while Mario Racco's name is synonymous with Vaughan council in recent years, he is not the most respected politician in the area. If anything, Mr. Racco's antics over the past years, including a very public battle with the Federal Liberals in 1997 over the parachuting of Elinor Caplan, will be his ultimate downfall in this election. | |||
| 13/11/02 | A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com | ||
| What's so far been forgotten is *why* the '99 race was so close; first, the Grits had their closest thing to a "star" candidate in the 905, Jewish community leader Dan Ronen; and second, the Tory forces conducted a lunkheaded poll in the riding that was interpreted as Jew-baiting. Oh, and it was a new constituency, with no incumbents. Otherwise, history indicated that Thornhill ought to have had at least a 10-point PC margin, rather than the smidgen the PCs actually got. And Molinari's more or less held her own--but with the 1999 result reinforced by Greg Sorbara's byelection election next door, I doubt the Grits would let this opportunity fly... | |||
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13/11/02 | Rob Smithson Email: | |
| The NDP Leadership Race has contributed to the Thornhill NDP's membership success. Lots of people are signing up, as it's the only leadership race in town, really. Don't underestimate all those new people volunteering for the NDP. Also, I was reading about an "autism campaign" in the Liberal newspaper a few months ago, it seems they have new members from that. And the Hydro campaign. The NDP filled the newspapers about that, especially the Star and even the Liberal newspaper. More people subscribe to the Star in Thornhill then do to the Liberal newspaper. Maybe I'm just a guy who bets on underdogs. I'm putting my money on NDP. | |||
| 07/11/02 | Gabriel Bookchin Email: | ||
| It's a tough call. This is one of the most affluent districts in Ontario, and part of the 905 belt to boot. One shouldn't take "the swing to the right" among Jewish voters too seriously. Jewish voters, contrary to fantasies of the National Post, DID NOT EMBRACE THE CANADIAN ALLIANCE!!! A poll taken in the area right before the election found that Jewish voters were LESS SUPPORTIVE OF THE ALLIANCE THAN NON-JEWISH VOTERS IN THE RIDING!!!
There's seems to be a tendency to equate the views of Orthodox Jews as the views of the Jewish community as a whole. Fact of the matter is that the Orthodox make up only about 10-15% of the Toronto Jewish community (it is possible that there's proportionally more Orthodox in Thornhill, though it's definitely not a majority) About 40% are Conservative (middle-of-the-road religiously) and about a quarter are Reform (pretty liberal, kind of like the United Church maybe). The rest are unaffiliated or belong to smaller groupings (like Reconstructionist or Humanistic, for example). In general, non-Orthodox Jews are quite non-supportive, even hostile of right-wing political parties (even economic conservatives). A consistent finding (Canada, US, Britain) is that controlling for demographic differences (i.e. education, occupation - Jews have the highest proportion of bachelor's and advanced degrees in Canada) Jews are quite to the left of their counterparts on both social (abortion, civil liberties, etc.) and economic issues. Maybe the difference is disappearing, but I'm sure it's not completely gone. Historically Jews have backed the Liberals and have given above-average support for the NDP (especially given educational and occupational differences - although Jews are quite well represented as university professors, a group that probably gives above-average support to the NDP). This is not to say that that this riding is going to NDP, nor a denial that many Jews supported the Harris government (which has generally not taken a socially conservative stance on abortion, gay rights, etc.) This riding is not a majority Jewish. I am quite certain however that the WASPs, Irish Catholics, Italian-Canadians and others of the district will probably give a higher proportion of their votes to the PCs and the Jews will give above-average support to the NDP. The Orthodox - the greatest supporters of the Alliance - will of course vote to the right of their non-Orthodox counterparts. | |||
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06/11/02 | E.S. Email: | |
| With an election looming, this area is one which is certainly interesting. In particular, the selection of Mario Racco is a risky one for the Liberals. While this area is a Tory strength area, Racco's nomination polarizes a riding whose demographics are very interesting. Moreover, Mr. Racco is not necessarily the most "popular" of politicians who has coasted to victory in municipal campaigns by being acclaimed in 2000, and relatively little challenges in prior contests. Molinari on the other hand has gained experience in her time in the Legislature. This will be a close race, but not nearly as close as the 1999 campaign where the results swayed. | |||
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31/10/02 | Corey O. Email: olomon@hotmail.com | |
| As for Doron's comment about the "right wing swing" of Jewish voters in the federal election, what little swing there was (and that is debatable) was solely related to the government's stand on Israel and comments the Canadian delegation to the UN had recently made. Those are issues totally irrelevant to a provincial election. And besides Caplan still won with well over 60% of the vote! | |||
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21/10/02 | Doron Email: | |
| The NDP will be a pariah of the 905 for years to come. Most 905 voters are middle of the road or right-leaning. No amount of organizing can help their cause. Tina Molinari will be re-elected with a slightly higher margin counting on the emerging right wing swing among Jewish voters stemming from the last federal election. Many will want to send a message to Elinor Caplan by casting a vote for the provincial PC. There was a surge of registrations to the PC party from this riding for the leadership race among this constituency as well. | |||
| 18/10/02 | Craig Email: | ||
| NDP win here? Are you serious? I thought they were a fringe party in the 905 area! However, I will not disagree that it will be close, but the Liberals and Tories will run neck-and-neck. If somehow you are correct and the NDP makes it interesting, this could be one of Ontario's best races, a three-way free for all! | |||
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15/10/02 | John Arbenture | |
| It seems the NDP is growing by leaps and bounds in Thornhill. I predict a surprise in Thornhill, an NDP victory. Their organizing work is incredible, I've noticed, they're expanding and getting new members. I passed by their booth as I was going to the supermarket, and they seemed to have it together. They told me to get involved and come to their next meeting. A friend of mine also told me she encountered the Thornhill NDP and was very impressed. I haven't heard anything from the other candidates. | |||
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