St. Catharines

Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

St. Catharines

Last Update:
4:20 PM 28/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
26 October 2002

Political Profile:

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)

Liberal Party:
Jim Bradley

Progressive Conservative:
Mark Brickell

New Democratic Party:
John Bacher

Green Party:
Jim Fannon

Incumbent:

Jim Bradley

Federal MP:

Walt Lastewka

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

Plurality 7192

*JIM BRADLEY

25186 53.9%

*TOM FROESE

17994 38.51%

GORDON COGGINS

2902 6.21%

HELENE A. DARISSE

272 0.58%

DOUG WOODARD

215 0.46%

RON WALKER

154 0.33%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction

Plurality 5 121

Walt Lastewka

20 992 44.9%

Randy Taylor Dumont

15 871 34%

Ken Atkinson

6 522 14%

John Bacher

2 878 6.2%

Demographic Profile:

Population

2001 103678

1996 106105

1991 105299

(1996 census)
Age

0-19 26675

20-39 30460

40-59 26735

60+ 22225

Avg Household Income
$52853

Labour Participation 61.90%

Unemployment 10.40%

Canadian Citizen
95.64%

Canadian Born 78.19%

Ontario Born 68.59%

Immigrant 21.24%

Visible Minority 5.33%

Aboriginal 0.96%

First Language

English 84215

French 2780

German 2965

Italian 2515

Polish 2415

Residence

House 71.46%

Apartment 28.24%

Owned 64.08%

Rented 35.92%

Avg Dwelling Value $132189

Education

University 15880

College/Trade School 25125

Secondary 35050

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	27/09/03	CS Email:
It's over in St Catharines. PC Candidate has effectively ran a Mayoral campaign which hasn't gained any traction with voters. Tory came out of the gates fast and hard in the spring and appears to have blown funds and community goodwill early on (billboards, TV ads full colour newspaper ads). St Catharines will turn Tory blue ONLY when Jim Bradley decides not to run again. Local media appears to have propped up the PC candidate for the sake of making it look like there is a race here. But how could the people of St Catharines seriously consider voting for a candidate who can't vote for himself (lives outside the riding) and someone who has spent the whole campaign blaming the provincial MPP for an ailing downtown, stagnent business sector etc, yet at the same time, the PC candidate is touting his record of serving local residents for over 20 years at the municipal level. St Catharines will reap the benefits of sending one of Ontario's most senior serving MPP's back to QP and right into a high profile Liberal cabinet post. Funny thing is, local PC candidate started out campaign saying that St Catharines needed a strong voice at QP and that for too many years having a rep from an opposition party has hurt the riding. Why now would anyone in SC vote for a back bencher after he's told us this is the worst thing we could do? Rumour has it that the PC candidate has filed his municipal election papers as of 4:45 pm Sept 26 and is seeking a return to regional council. Hope he is successful, but he should have run for Mayor of St Catharines, since he has just spent 28 days campaigning as if he was.
	19/09/03	wynn Email:
No need for mudslinging as the PC candidate puts his foot in it again. Illegal election signs, blame your volunteers, hold a meeting on education to which nobody comes.
	09/09/03	Email:
I am glad that all the mudslinging on this site for this riding is over and people are at least attempting to make meaningful predictions. I have lived my entire life in this riding and, quite frankly, Mark Brickell is one of the best candidates the Tories have thrown at Bradley in quite a while. A young guy with a good deal of experience. If the opinion polls were largely in favour of Eves and the Tories, he would have a slight chance of pulling the upset. Lord know the St. Catharines Conservative, I mean, St. Catharines Standard wants him to win. But this is Jim Bradley we are talking about. Jim is widely known as one of, if not the, hardest working MPP at Queen's Park and in his riding. He is entrenched in this riding and very well respected. Plus, Jim survived both the NDP and Harris tides of '90 and '95 respectively and beat incumbent Tom Froese in '99. This time, McGuinty is doing better and the party has some solid policy behind it. This is not a cakewalk, but Bradley will win by 2500 votes plus.
	04/09/03	Nick Email: spamgoeshere@cogeco.ca
Jim Bradley is a unique candidate in that he has a good deal of name recogition regardless of the party he represents. Jim could suddenly switch to the Green Party or Tories and he'd still have a shot at winning this riding. He'll win again in 2003, though it may be closer then the last few years.
	04/07/03	wynn Email:
The St. Catharines Standard editorial today stated "Spare Us" the precampaigning which allows only riding associations with boodles of cash to do bulletin boards, pre-campaign literature. They quoted a Brock prof regarding the inequity caused by such campaigning even before the writ is dropped. I do wish there were some rules here, but it looks like there is not.
	28/06/03	Enid Email:
So when is the election to be? Now, as of today, no mid-peninsula highway for candidates to tout, not Go-train likely,.... what will the platforms be? Let me guess.
	11/06/03	Michael Ensley Email: mensley@yahoo.com
I believe it is too easy to overestimate the support for the NDP and Greens's in this riding... Bacher is not capable of receiving 9% of the vote...He is in a battle with the Green's and they will tear each other apart...hurting both of them. The NDP will be lucky to hit 4/5% and the Green's will be under 2/3%..THus ,instead of 13% between them they will be under 8%...THis gap of 5/6% will go to Bradley allowing him to win no prob.
	03/06/03	KJ Email:
I think some clarification is in order here regarding the postings from Curious and Another Curious. Just to be clear, Brickell did not raise the issue of age of consent at the committee level. It was raised by a councillor from Niagara Falls. But Brickell did offer his comments on it during the ensuing debate, and ultimately regional council decided not to do anything with it. I also feel the need to concur with Panther that some of these submissions are getting ridiculously personal. This election will offer a great oppoortunity to talk about issues and making St. Catharines a better place to live. Degrading that by attacking someone's personal life with mistruths and lies does not do anybody any good and in my opinion corrupts the democratic process we Canadians supposedly hold so dear.
	24/05/03	El Predicto Email:
I always say, where there's smoke, there's fire. This should be an automatic for Bradley but when you look at the way the Liberals are attacking Brickell you have to think they're worried. St. Catharines could see a big upset on election night.
	20/05/03	Shaker Email:
I think Jim Bradley will win his riding again but it's going to be close. What hurts Bradley is his leader, Dalton McGuinty is just not very popular. Mark Brickell may be running for next time. Here's what I think the final results will be. Bradley 45%, Brickell 42%, Bacher 9%, Fannon 4%.
	20/05/03	another curious Email:
Curious didn't say Brickell raised this in council, but rather "at the committee level last fall." Which The St. Catharines Standard reported.
	14/05/03	To Curious Email:
I believe that Curious is referring to a presentation at Regional Council regarding "Age of Consent". After the presentation, Brickell JR commented, and who could blame him, it should be illegal for a 45 year man to have sex with a 15 year old girl! Nonetheless Brickell certainly did not "Raise the issue in council". The Provincial PC Eves Government are social moderates, they decided NOT to appeal a Provincial court decision allowing for same sex marriages. It is the Federal Liberals who are appealing that decision in an attempt to deny same sex marriages. I wonder if McGuinty and Bradley agree with their Federal Cousins.
	11/05/03	curious Email:
I much appreciate KJ's remarks. However, it is Brickell Jr. who raised the 'age of consent' issue, (along with councillor Hildreth) at the Committee level last fall. Well reported in the Standard. Stan Brickell Sr., while serving as a Regional Councillor several years earlier, raised the issue of government assenting to same-sex marriages (I believe) Let's all cherr for Elsie Wayne! (Federally elected, not regional). Certainly, this was not a regional issue, yet our RMof Niagara passed Stan's notion to let the Provincial Govt know its displeasure. My concerns are, hey, Reg. councillors are supposed to be concerned with Ambulance service, sewerage, Regional Roads, Niagara local youth care, and the like. Not the morality of a nation. Most of us who ascribe to a religion or moral structure look to our church or temple leaders to help us with these issues. We look to our elected officials to understand their roles regarding abulance service, potholes in Regional Roads, Overall regional planning, zzzzzzzzz. What is it the elected politicians do not understand about their roles as representatives of their constituencies?
	08/05/03	KJ Email:
In response to curious, I believe you may be getting Mark Brickell confused with his father, who sat on regional council during the last term. Brickell, Sr. was well known for airing his beliefs in the regional council chamber, but Mark has kept his comments and business in the council chamber to regional matters. I can say that with certainty. As for the overall race, I think this riding will be a lot closer than many believe, but it is tough to beat a good constituency guy like Jim. He shows up to graduations and seniors' events and tea parties and the like. The man is everywhere. He thinks of himself as Jim Bradley MPP for St. Catharines before he is Jim Bradley, Liberal, and that resonates with St. Catharines voters. Now, that is not to say that Brickell will not put up a good fight. He has many of the qualities of a young Jim Bradley, who it must be noted lost his first couple of attempts at Queen's Park before finally prevailing.
	05/05/03	AC Email:
If I'm not mistaken, was there not an article about a Liberal "bagman" (as so thoughtfully referred to in an earlier post) in that Standard insert as well? Regardless of who you support, it's an honourable and demanding committment when working for a candidate of any political stripe. It's not just Tories who have supporters, there are a couple of other major parties out there who's candidates wouldn't stand a chance if it weren't for the help and support of their so-called "bagman".
	02/05/03	Panther Email:
This is getting ridculous! Some of the submissions on this website, for many of the Ridings, not just St. Catharines, are really crossing the line in terms of garbage, gossip and trash politics. I don't mean to make any false accusations but the majority seem to coming from "Liberal" posters (it could very well be the same poster). However, the previous submission "Not Rick Dykstra" was way below the belt. What exactly was his point! I cannot believe that the editor of the website let this one slip by. I fail to see what a candidate's wife and kids have to do with predicting whether or not a person will win a riding. Also, what does a campaign manager in a neighbouring riding have to do with any thing? The previous submission was simply uncalled for and I urge the editor to remove it. I don't know Brickell from a hole in the wall. But from what I have seen in the local media and from friends in St. Catharines, the man is working hard and creating a positive name for himself. He's definately giving Jim Bradley a run for his money. Do I think Brickell will win? He might. He might not. But the race will be closer than this riding has seen in some time.
	29/04/03	Not Rick Dykstra Email:
And now we have Tory bagman Dykstra in a special insert in the Standard, saying he will be campaign manager for Bart Maves and supports Brickell. Is there much more we all need to know about the Tory-right-wing, and evangelical zealots? Edited
	27/04/03	US Email:
Mark Brickell has a huge billboard poster up on Ontario Street nr. St. Paul. It is very nice. But there's no election on, so the PC local coffers will have to pony up again whenever Eves decides the time for an election is nigh.
	26/04/03	CS Email:
Big debate last night. Less than 30 people turned out to Tory sponsored budget debate in St Kitts. Premier's dinner a week earlier saw attendance drop from 600 2 years ago to 350? Tory candidate claims no-one else has a "right to run for office" if they haven't served on local council or "stepped foot in a school". Wow, Tory arrogance and cheap stunts are alive and well in St Catharines! Anyone care to read the tea leaves here?
	25/04/03	curious Email:
I would like information from those in the know. Reading earlier missives, I would like to place my vote with as much information as possible. Certain earlier remarks about Mark Brickell are conflicting. One says he is unemployed, another self-employed. One queries his marriage(s?) and personal life, another says there is a wonderful 11-yr. marriage. One referes to Bradley's partner retiring, but Bradley not. I think one's personal life should not enter politics at all --Unless, and this is a big Unless, one makes pronouncements about ethics, and 'age of consent' and such things which have nothing whatever to do with either Regional or Provincial politics. Since Mr. Brickell has raised those issues, on his own, at the regional level, then he needs to address his personal life openly on the political level. Had Mr. Brickell not raised those issues at the Regional level, I would not be as curious as I am about his personal beliefs and wish to apparently impose them as an elected official.
	23/04/03	ME Email: No
Hey Duke, is that the fundraiser that only sold 350 tickets with Ernie on the bill? Didn't you guys sold 600 tickets when Mike Harris was leader?
	22/04/03	Casey Email:
I now have to re-think my prediction as MPP Jim Bradley shys away from debating Brickell. Even the St Catharines Standard is criticizing Bradley's strategy/decision. Wether it is contempt for local democracy or fear of Brickell, it is not good. If you don't believe me, read April 22nds St Catharines Standard editorial. Editor's Note: We believe this submission intentionally takes Bradley's stand out of context. Brickwll challenged other candidates to debate the budget presented outside Queen's Park, and Bradley refused specifically on the ground that it will legitimize the budget, a line consistent with what the Liberals have been saying.
	19/04/03	Duke Email: No
Last Wednesday, Premier Eves spoke to over 500 supporters who paid $250 a plate at the annual Niagara fundraiser. The Premier said he was looking forward to Mark Brickell joining the Conservative caucus at Queen's Park. The next day in the St. Catharines Standard Mark was quoted saying, "I wish the premier would call the election tonight. I'm ready to go. I want to get out there and I want to beat Jim Bradley right now." Mark has all the momentum going for him and he is going to win.
	15/04/03	Dudeski Email:
Bradley is not unbeatable and Brickell has shown some real energy out of the gate. I think people are ready for Mark and I wouldn't be so quick to colour St. Catharines Bradley - Mark has the uncanny ability to pick fights and I think Bradley's duck and cover strategy is getting old.
	14/04/03	jeff Email:
McGuinty's anti-american position on the war in Iraq will cost Bradley.
	10/04/03	Owen Email:
Brickell is about to join the club of other young and naive Niagara Tory hopefuls that have prematurely run for a St. Catharines seat that, if running against a less formidable candidate, could have been won. Still relatively young, Brickell would have been wise to wait for Bradley to step down, which all recognize will happen sooner than later. Nobody can rightly argue that St. Catharines is a Liberal seat; but, there is little question that the seat is Bradley's so long as he wants it. Don't take it from me, take it from respected Tory strategist Tom Long who, in 1999, said St. Catharines was one of two provincial ridings that the Tory campaign team and war chest doesn't even bother with. Brickell's decision to run for this seat at this time is proof enough that his political instincts are sub-par - bad omen for the campaign trail, particularly when running against Bradley, an icon in political strategy. Prediction: Bradley at the Cabinet table by Christmas.
	08/04/03	Brent Email:
Mr. Bradley is a nice guy most will agree and this in the past has been enough to get him elected. Unfortunately I don't think just being a "nice guy" will be enough this time. Mark Brickell will be Jim's biggest challenge yet and I think Jim knows it. I say this because from what I am already seeing and hearing in my circles in St. Catharines. Also Mark seems very eager to win as I have already had him knock on my door to introduce himself to me, I was very impressed! I have read some of the comments below on Mark's personal life and religious views. They were very negative and an easy cowardly cheap shot for anyone to take. I would hope this did not come from Jim Bradley's team. If it did, than it really does look like someone is running scared... I'll pick Mark Brickell in this one as I think winning soley on the "nice guy" routine for Mr. Bradley has run its course.
	04/04/03	Jane Email:
Jim Bradley's people must be running really scared at this point. What else can explain the mudslinging and lies circulating about Mark Brickell. Since when is self-employment considered unemployment? Having been happily married for 11 years is hardly an issue in his personal life. Jim Bradley should have such a personal life. As for the right wing zealotry, try again. Zero for zero so far. What's next? Mark Brickell has the momentum and the broad based support and is gaining more each day. That's the real story.
	02/04/03	Enid Email:
Jim Bradley has been a fine representative for many years, but I fear he has his biggest challenge yet in Brickell. Brickell not only has Tory support, but all the right wing former Alliance folk, and the religious-right. A formidable challenge. Earlier postings refer to Brickell's unemployment, and personal life. Coupled with his righteous zealotry, I wonder how the campaign literature will play? Or this could all be petty rumour.
	26/03/03	TF Email:
Clearly Jim Bradley will be difficult to beat but if anyone can do it, it's Mark Brickell. This kid has the goods. He has served our community well at all levels of municipal government and for many years. He is known for being a real work horse at Regional Council. His ties to education are every bit as strong as Bradley's, if not greater. Most of all, he is a true visionary and natural leader. It's great to hear so many people talking about the possibility of bringing GO Transit to St. Catharines. I think Brickell will actually do it. I certainly hope so.
	26/03/03	THE GAMBLER Email:
The Gambler is putting his money on Mark Brickell to win St.Catharines. This is another one of my exclusive upset specials. LIB Bradley is an aging fighter who should have hung up his gloves this time. Instead he's back in the ring for one more fight. PC Brickell is a hungry young fighter who's already proving to be too quick for the slowed up Bradley. This will be one of the biggest upsets on election night. You heard it here first.
	25/03/03	CS Email:
The GO Transit issue is a Tory smokescreen. If Bob Rae, David Peterson, Mike Harris or Ernie Eves wanted to extend GO service to Niagara it would have happened years ago. The business case simply isn't there. Infrastructure upgrades to existing rail lines are quite significant between TO and Niagara. St Catharines Tory Assoc is well funded and has an unemployed candidate who has the time to poll and build "house of cards" issues to run on. Over the years, the local Conservatives have ran a hugely populary radio personality (John Larocque) and regional councillor (Bruce Timms) and they even ran a candidate with the same last name as Jim Bradley (Chuck Bradley) - a move that disgusted local Tory supporters and cost lots of membership support for several years. Now, the "personal character attacks" are underway as local Tory supporters orchistrate their "letter-to-the-editor" campaign. Desperation is in the air once again. Bottom line, Bradley's hard work, dedication and long-term committment to the people of St. Catharines will be very hard to beat. This guy is everywhere between elections. At election time he brings together a team of more than 1,000 volunteers from all political stripes to help ensure the people of St. Catharines are represented 24/7. Look for additional desperation and smear tactics from the Tory's as they take one more run at the "people's representative".
	17/03/03	TrAcking Casey Email:
Casey, have you read Herod's column re the Go Transit and the letter to the editor today (March 17th) about it? Seems that Brickell Jr. hitched his star to a non-starter, if I read this correctly. (Original Herod article is in the March 6th Standard.) Once that column was printed, all those pro-brickell-yeah-yeah letters from his PC Riding association stopped short. What does it all mean?
	12/03/03	Casey Email:
I think I saw "Morris" on Monday with a bag over his head throwing foreign objects at Minister of Education Elizabeth Witmer. That certainly didn't help the cause. I am still picking Bradley but I must confess, I overheard some Brock Students yesterday talking about Go Transit. They want to work in the GTA but live in St Catharines. This could get interesting.
	10/03/03	Casey Email:
Jim Bradley is going to be tough to beat. He likes to play the little guy or the underdog like Jean Chretien, but truth be known he is now one of the wealthiest men in St Catharines with his million dollar pension buyout. His Riding Association is flush with cash. His campaign team are experienced cut-throat political operatives in comparison to the greenhornes/businessmen on the Brickell side. One of Bradley's biggest advantage is that he is not married and has no children. This allows him the opportunity to network at every Stag and sporting event in town. With very little committments, he is everywhere! Michael Ensley is correct, the only chance for the Tories or NDP is if Bradley joins his partner in retirement.
	09/03/03	Jeff Email:
It looks like Jim Bradley may be in trouble. I heard Mark Brickell on the radio CHSC on March 5/2003, he sounded excellent! Obviously too good for Morris, who quickly went online to post a fabricated, inaccurate description of the PC Candidate. If Jim Bradley is resorting to a smear campaign already, you know he must be worried, and he should be. Some of Jim's closest and influential friends have joined the Mark Brickell Campaign Team. Mark unvielled a 4-Point Economic Plan to the St Catharines' Business Community in January 2003 which includes Smart Growth (An iniative Brickell co-chairs at a Regional Level) and an expanded GO TRANSIT. People are excited. People will be surprised to see that "Morris" has lowered himself into the gutter to play this brand of politics.
	09/03/03	Panther Email:
I think Morris was drinking or something when he wrote his submission. Aside from taking immature personal pot-shots at the Tory candidate, his submission made absolutely no sense whatsoever. Bradley will be hard to beat. He's been the local MPP for over two decades and he is still very popular. St. Catharines "should" be a Tory riding, based on demographics, but Bradley is too popular for people to actually vote Tory. As far as "pretty" Morris is concerned, I'd suggest he go out and buy some tact or class. It's one thing to disagree with a candidate based on policy, however attacking a candidate on personal issues is just wrong. Grow up Morris!
	05/03/03	Morris Email:
Jim Bradley should make mincemeat of the glossy Brickell. Brickell cannot keep his private 'Christian' right-wing family views out of politics. LIke his father, he introduces right-wing ideology into Regional business (totally out-of-place) as when he tired to get Regional Council to change the "age of Consent'. Er, that would be a Federal issue, bub. Brickell is glossy and pretty. and bereft of ides that pertain to the domain for which he is elected. So, we have sparkly Mark (PC) running outside of his constituency (Niagara Centre)and why is that. Does he think Jim Bradley, outside of his riding, in St. Catharines, is an easier 'mark' than the formidable Kormos?? Pretty boy Mark has his father's genes; that would be in simply not understanding what your are elected for. Gosh, if you are elected to a city council, maybe that would be your business. Then to Regional Council, maybe then ambulance services, arterial roads, etc. might be of interest. But no, Brickell Pere and heir just have to flog their self-rightousness everywhere --- whether it be Provincial or Federal biz, as in the same-sex-marriage stuff, or 'age of consent' when will the Brickell family 'get it.'?? Not your purvue, Bub. Slick Mark has his PC buds firing off letters-to-the-editors hither and yon about Marky bringing the GO transit to Niagara. Dream on. Now these letters, a time-honoured tradition for political folk, are fine. But Marky Mark, hello. It has been done before. In the early 90's the NDP MPP tried her damndest to get Go Transit here. Ain't going to happen. Oh, by the way, pretty Mark, how many marriages is that between you and Christine? Total count? Ah, damned rumours.
	21/02/03	ME Email:
Ah Eugene, you are on some serious chemicals. If you have any knowledge about Jim Bradley at all, you would not say what ever you said. My bet is, Bradley will be Ontario's greatest Environment Minister, again.
	18/02/03	Eugene S. Email:
Mark Brickell is going to give Jim Bradley a run for his money. This kid is hot, he fits the perfect Tory stereotype, but he's got a real rounded and polished leadership quality that sets him apart. He has a record as a work-horse and a do-er on regional councilliors and he was hand-picked as the guy to take down Bradley. He's young and principled, with big ideas and a track record of wins. This is going to be a values campaign and it's going to be a bloodbath - Brickell has only played his business "card" to date, but his social and community hands are on fire. Double down on the underdog in this race, I think Brickell can do it.
	30/01/03	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Jim Bradley has done one doozy of a thing that suggests he'll keep this seat: be such a well-respected workhorse as to survive the '90 NDP landslide, the '95 PC landslide, and a 99 Lib-PC incumbent battle. Of course, as with Sean Conway, it's a personal mandate even more than a natural Grit mandate; federally, this has been a strong Reform/Alliance target three elections running. (Which means it's a predominantly blue-collar Toryism, still smarting over Paul'n'Karla, that'd be a little icy t/w Eves moderation.) Bradley or no Bradley, momentum still tilts Gritward (for now)...
	26/10/02	AL Email:
Jim Bradley has done nothing that suggests he'll keep this seat. This is a strong tory region and with Eves' more moderate policies should slide over to the tory column (Despite a new pole suggesting that Liberals lead)...Look at this area...definate tory material!
	25/10/02	Michael Ensley Email: mensley@yahoo.com
The key to the liberals holding this riding is Bradley's future plans. If he stands for re-election he can win. However, if he follows his partner into retirement the seat will be open.

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