Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Scarborough-Rouge River

Last Update:
2:56 AM 17/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
26 October 2002



Political Profile:

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
Liberal Party:
Alvin Curling
 Progressive Conservative:
Kevin Moore
 New Democratic Party:
Jean Paul Yovanoff
 Green Party:

Incumbent:
 Alvin Curling

Federal MP:
 Derek Lee

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction
Plurality7991
*ALVIN CURLING
20052 57.25%
MUBASHAR DAR
12061 34.44%
PAULETTE SENIOR
2138 6.1%
BETTY PETERS
489 1.4%
LOU DUBE
284 0.81%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality25 432
 Derek Lee
28 669 79.1%
 Kaizer Suleman
3 237 8.9%
 Alan Shumak
2 566 7.1%
 Paulette Senior
1 793 4.9%

Demographic Profile:
Population
2001126382
1996120264
1991111257

(1996 census)
Age
0-1935100
20-3939485
40-5931770
60+13870

Avg Household Income
$50008
Labour Participation64.80%
Unemployment11.90%

Canadian Citizen
78.95%
Canadian Born34.86%
Ontario Born31.23%
Immigrant63.65%
Visible Minority76.62%
Aboriginal0.19%

First Language
English52440
French750
Chinese36965
Tamil5555
Pilipino3955

Residence
House74.82%
Apartment25.10%
Owned68.73%
Rented31.27%
Avg Dwelling Value$203530

Education
University25825
College/Trade School24850
Secondary34130

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13/09/03 Craig
Email:
This is going to be another Liberal landslide win, with Alvin Curling facing weak competition in this middle-class riding. The riding is perfectly shaped for the Liberals - hence their 80% in the 2000 Federal election. It will be one of the largest romps in Ontario. Current prediction: Curling 70%, Moore 14%, Yovanoff 13%, others 3%.
05/09/03 J W P
Email: phillips2240@rogers.com
This will be a race really for second place between Jean Paul Yovanoff and PC candidate Kevin Moore, though my feeling is that NDP candidate Jean Paul Yovanoff will come in second due to the unpopular feelings toward the tories.
 15/05/03 Grizz
Email:
Liberal incumbent + Liberals doing well in the polls = Liberals keeping this seat
 15/05/03 Josef Kunzler
Email: josef_kunzler@hotmail.com
I think that MPP Curling's incumbent and superstar status (remember Bill 26) and mature use of that status will help him greatly in reclaiming this riding but I think this may be his last term. The other two parties will then stand a chance because normally people get tired of the retiree's party and wish for a change. We shall see what we shall see.
 23/03/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
The NDP presence in Scarborough has always been a withered, atrophied, and at best thwarted affair north of the 401--in SRR, it exists mostly in the polyglot patchwork of Malvern, and latently could still catch strength with the right candidacy, leadership, and dynamics (and Alvin Curling retiring). On the other hand, unexpected Tory strength was tapped close to Milliken in 1999. And none of it matters in this 3/4(!) visible minority seat where Curling couldn't be pried loose with a crowbar. Maybe held down to mid-40s like in 1990 and 1995, but not dislodged.
 15/03/03 lrs
Email:
Liberal safe seat-I admit his time is past and I hope the Libs will not need him in cabinet- he was a bust in the 80's- interesting if NDP vote will go up- if Tories no threat-will more people vote for NDP to support NDP provincial campaign even if can't possibly win this seat?
 25/10/02 Burke
Email:
Alvin Curling will easily be re-elected in this riding. This riding has elected Liberals for quite some time and Alvin has taken on some tough files and is well respected. He easily defeated the Tories in 1999 and Toronto voters are not about to start electing Tories.

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