Scarborough Centre

Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Scarborough Centre

Last Update:
3:32 PM 01/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
2:04 PM 29/09/2003

Political Profile:

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)

Liberal Party:
Brad Duguid

Progressive Conservative:
Marilyn Mushinski

New Democratic Party:
Michael Laxer

Green Party:
Robert Carty

Incumbent:

Marilyn Mushinski

Federal MP:

John Cannis

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

Plurality 3624

*MARILYN MUSHINSKI

18189 43.12%

COSTAS MANIOS

14565 34.53%

SID RYAN

8399 19.91%

RINA MORRA

573 1.36%

EILEEN MURRAY

455 1.08%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction

Plurality 18 120

John Cannis

26 969 67.5%

Bill Settatree

8 849 22.2%

Ali Mallah

3 171 7.9%

%

Demographic Profile:

Population

2001 123089

1996 114844

1991 107373

(1996 census)
Age

0-19 27760

20-39 37625

40-59 26265

60+ 23205

Avg Household Income
$47014

Labour Participation 61.10%

Unemployment 12.10%

Canadian Citizen
82.83%

Canadian Born 51.66%

Ontario Born 44.33%

Immigrant 47.02%

Visible Minority 41.84%

Aboriginal 0.40%

First Language

English 68090

French 1150

Chinese 5780

Tamil 5630

Greek 3975

Pilipino 3450

Italian 2815

Macedonian 2220

Residence

House 52.39%

Apartment 47.45%

Owned 53.98%

Rented 46.02%

Avg Dwelling Value $183879

Education

University 19435

College/Trade School 24520

Secondary 37690

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	01/10/03	Judi Bud Email:
Brad Duguid was never in danger of losing in Scaborough Centre. I know first hand that before Duguid agreed to take the Liberal appointment, he did a poll that showed him so far ahead of everyone else that winning was a sure thing. Duguid will be sworn into cabinet in a couple weeks.
	29/09/03	Craig Email:
Forget the vote split - the Tories have fallen too far and the NDP are not going to gain much with a weaker candidate. In the end, it will be a fairly easily win for Duguid, with Laxer (holding his own) and Manios (picking up some angry Liberals) almost even. As for Mushinski, she could face the dubious distinction of an incumbent finishing FOURTH! (which might be a first in Ontario history) Current prediction: Duguid 43%, Manios 18%, Laxer 18%, Mushinski 16%, others 5%.
	29/09/03	Jason Email:
I believe Brad Dugid will come on top, because people in the riding are sensing change. In the 1999 election, the Liberal and NDP split the vote, Sid Ryan as a big name really hurt Costas Manios and could have came on top. Marlyin Mushinski seems to be invsible in the riding this time, no campaign workers, or herself came to the door. Why she would miss the dabate that was held last week, just is so strange. I live in the Warden and Lawerence area it seems that Brad Dugid and Costas Manios are evenly matched in signage, and Marlyin Mushinski comes in third. No sign of NDP in the riding this time, Michael Laxer should be a distant fourth. Which was a NDP riding before 1995. I feel that Brad Dugid will come on top because people will know that an Liberal MPP will do more for Scarborough Centre than an independant MPP will. The split will not show this time.
	28/09/03	A Email:
Mushinski is going to come in third behind the Liberals and the NDP (Mushinski isn't even going to all-candidates meetings). Manios will get between 5 and 10 percent. His signage is deceptive, if you look closely you'll see most houses with a Manios sign also have a Duguid sign? Why? Because both candidates are claiming to be the Liberal candidate. With the NDP running at 22% throughout Toronto they should get at least that, possibly up to 10 points higher, in Scarborough Centre which has more of an NDP base than other ridings so sign-counters beware. Manios will only take votes away from the Liberals, he won't take anything away from the Tories or the NDP.
	26/09/03	Gerry Kennedy Email:
Who is this last submitter? Blatant Tory partisan! I live in Scarborough (albeit Southwest) and I can walk across Eglinton Avenue into Scarborough Centre in about five minutes from my house. Mushinski fluked this riding last time due to the presence of Ryan. This time, the NDP is gone and will not get 5%. Even if Manios gets as many votes as Ryan (which he will not), Duguid only has to take 5% of the Tory vote and make this riding his own. There is nothing to suggest that the Conservative vote last time was deflated (a la Willowdale) so this should be an easy pickup for the Liberals. THe only three ridings in Toronto where the Tories have a hope in HELL of winning are Willowdale (due to David Young's personal popularity), Scarborough East (because Gilchrist is strangley popular out there [don't ask me why/I don't know] and there's a strong NDP campaign) and Etobicoke-Lakeshore (because of Kell's status and Irene Jones' strong campaign).
	25/09/03	Email:
Clearly, whoever is making these submissions is not even CLOSE to Scarborough Centre. I drove down Ellesmere this evening and saw at least 200 people in a classic honk-and-wave in support of Marilyn Mushinski. Brad Duguid is running scared. With his leader now on record saying he WILL IN FACT raise Ontario taxes, Brad will surely lose what little support he had. This is going to be a classic 3-way split which will leave Mushinski triumphant. Furhtermore, the Liberals sealed their own fate when they parachuted Duguid into this riding. One ticked off former Liberal will split the vote even further, and will lead to a Conservative victory. Unfortunately for the Liberal Party they didn't take into account a 2-way Liberal vote. Conservative all the way!
	25/09/03	A Email:
Manios is not John Sewell. He has no independent profile and the net effect of his candidacy will not be to get votes for himself but to keep some Liberals home or even drive some to vote NDP. The sniping between Manios and Duguid at all candiates meetings and in the press will only result in people not wanting to vote for either of them. Manios will get no more than 10% of the vote and that vote will come almost entirely from Liberal voters. The question is not how many votes Manios gets but how many votes he denies Duguid. In a province wide Liberal landslide it might not be enough to deny Duguid the election but only to cut his margin. Mushinski's campaign has collapsed. Her signage is poor and mostly concentrated on business and public property, she's ducking debates and she doesn't seem to have a lot of campaign workers. Laxer has suffered because of the NDP's focus on Scarborough Southwest and to a lesser extant Scarborough East. Many workers who traditionally work in Scarborough Centre are going to Scarbrough Southwest because the daughter of former Scarborough Centre NDP MPP David Warner is running there. Also, the party has not prioritised Scarborough Centre and is not sending resources to the Laxer campaign. Third, poor organisation on the part of the last federal and provincial campaigns in the riding mean the Laxer campaign started with nothing, no list of past sign locations or volunteers, so the sign campaign in particular has been minimal. That shouldn't be seen as a reflection of NDP support here. The campaign has been growing and has been well-received at the doors so this is one riding where the "sign war" is deceptive. Manios will do far, far worse than his signage indicates (many people took Manios signs because they had them last election and indeed many houses with Manios signs also have Duguid signs) and Laxer will do much better. When you get off the main streets one is struck by how few signs there are for any candidates so all the signage tells you in this riding is how effective each campaign has been in organising sign blitzes and utilising old sign lists. It can't be taken as a serious indication of the E-day result. I would not be suprised if in this race Mushinksi comes in third and I fully expect Manios to come in fourth.
	24/09/03	Gerry Kennedy Email:
I must agree that Mushinski is going to be embarrassed. I live five minutes away from this riding and Manios is signing second and Mushinski has resorted to the desperate tactic of putting her signs on public property. Manios is going to do quite well and I say good for him but at the end of the day the voters are going to send Brad Duguid to Queen's Park as he is going to be in the cabinet in a few years and has served this community for nine. Duguid=47%/Mushinski=24%/Manios=22%/Others (inc. NDP)=7%
	22/09/03	A Email:
Looking just at signs one would think it's a two way race between Duguid and Manios! Mushinski is third in signage and about half of her signs are on public property or businesses (neither of whom vote). Indeed, a lot of the Mushinski signs that were up on residential properties are now gone meaning either they went down in last week's storm and have not yet been replaced (indicating a lack of volunteers) or that residents who initially agreed to take Mushinski sings have removed them. I don't think it's the storm because the signs on public and business land are in good shape. Getting off the main streets one is struct by how few signs there are for any candidate. This suggests that the "sign war" shouldn't be taken as very indicative of anything. People living on main streets are used to having signs and will often take signs regardless of how they are voting (or will take signs for anyone but the party they hate). And indeed, a lot of houses that have Duguid signs also have Manios signs (and vice versa). In the end I think Manios will suffer the fate of most non-incumbent independents and get something between 5 and 10% of the vote. The lack of NDP signs is really more indicative of the fact that NDP workers are busy in Scarborough Southwest and Scarborough East than of the degree of NDP support. The Scarborough Centre campaign simply doesn't have the capacity to run sign blitzes and most of the people who usually volunteer in Scarborough Centre NDP campaigns are working in Scarborough West where former Scarborough Centre NDP MPP David Warner's daughter is running. So, the NDP will perform far better than signage indicates, Manios will do far worse. The Tory vote seems to be collapsing and Mushinski could come in third or worse!
	21/09/03	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
It appears that if the Manios candidacy has torpedoed anybody, it's Michael Laxer--shades of what happened to the NDP against Sewell in Toronto Centre-Rosedale in '99, against Peter North in Elgin in '95, and federally against Nunziata in York South-Weston in '97 and '00. Still faint-hope for Mushinski, especially as the writ-drop date means she won't be bouncing back to City Council this year--but crudely extrapolating from poll trends, she'd have to try winning with less than a third of the vote; rotsa ruck...
	17/09/03	DL Email:
This race is quite intriguing. If there was no Costas Manios, Duguid would trounce his rivals here. He is a well-known, strong local candidate, and his right of center political leanings on some issues could take away votes from Mushinski who failed miserably in the Mike Harris cabinet. She was lucky to win last time, as the NDP (sid ryan) Liberal split allowed her to squeak through. This time however, the town will be painted red. Costas Manios is this years Sid Ryan, attempting to split the left wing vote. His selfish attempt will fall short though, and Duguid will win off his name recognition, and hard work for the people in this area.
	11/09/03	Frankly Email:
Hmm only one small sign eh? Apparently Hratch (yes we know who you are and shouldn't you be at city hall??) hasn't taken a look down Warden, or Brimley, or any one of several other streets when Manios is making Duguid look rather stupid in the sign war. Cause I have seen a whole lot more than just 1 small sign. In annother point it looks like the media has begun to run with the Manios story the Toronto free press today on their web site (www.torontofreepress.com) had a VERY pro Manios article on their front page and seeing as TFP is owned by Torstar I am sure it wont take long for other media to run with it. Now that Duguids back room deal with Sorbara and McGuinty has been made public and the people can see him as an oppertunist I don't see him having much chance in SC Centre. Could this mean seeing Duguid, a career politician, bowing out and seeking his still safe councillor seat again?? The deadline for registration is sept 25 2 days after the leaders debate. Asside from an onslaught from the Manios campagin and respectable showing from Duguids people to try and keep up, I have seen nothing from the Tory's and are the NDP even TRYING in this riding?? I have counted at BEST a dozen Laxter signs and I have seen NO lit from them at all.
	11/09/03	U.G. Email:
It appears to me that Costas Manios has signifigant sign support, just drive down Brimley Road etc. The deciding factor in this riding will be how many votes Manios denies Duguid. Duguid has excellent name recognition and has been a solid Counsellor. The PC support here has been reduced and the NDP vote has collapsed. Keep in mind Sid Ryan only received 19% of the vote in 1999 and this was a targetted seat for the NDP. Expect those NDP/Union votes to go to the Liberal in an effort to dump the Tories. I predict a Grit win for Duguid on election night.
	11/09/03	Tori Mole Email:
I have a question for Mambo King. If Brad is so confident that Costas is not a threat, why did he dedicate a half-page ad in the Mirror on Wednesday talking about the fact that there is only ONE Liberal candidate in Scarborough Centre? Sounds to me like he's plenty worried.
	11/09/03	Kennedy Road Kid Email:
Methinks Mambo King has been drinking the Duguid-special Kool-Aid. As any seasoned politico knows, it�s amateurish to judge a candidate�s actual support based on the number of signs placed throughout a riding. If one remembers 1999, Mushinski lost the sign war to the Liberals but still clobbered them by 4,000 votes. If you check out some of the main corridors in Scarborough Centre, you can see Manios signs increasing their numbers by the day. Mushinski�s signs are found throughout the riding, but generally there only one can be found at a residence instead of Brad�s four-to-a-house specials. And I don�t think it�s the Tories who are creating a mythology around Manios' candidacy�-there was a Duguid advertisement in the Scarborough Mirror Wednesday with the headline �Don�t be fooled, there�s only one Liberal candidates in Scarborough Centre!�. That seems to me like an act of desperation brought to you by Sorbara-Duguid Liberals.
	11/09/03	GK
Duguid will easily win and be a cabinet minister after Gerry Phillips retires. Here's why: 1) No Sid Ryan means the NDP vote will be quarted. 2) Manios will get (at most) 2,0000 votes. 3) 6,000 pickup-2,000 to Manios means Liberals have closed gap with Mushinski. 4) THIS DOESN'T EVEN COUNT TORY VOTES GOING TO DUGUID WHO IS QUITE RIGHT-WING!
	11/09/03	A Email:
Large Manios signs have started to pop up but even so he will only get about 5% of the vote at most. 95% of voters either don't know about the Liberals' nomination chaos or don't care and the Greek community that makes up Manios' core support is less than 10% of the riding's population. Duguid seems to have the edge in the sign war with Mushinski already employing the desperate tactic of putting signs on public property as well as industrial/commerical land (given the number of houses that line the main streets in Scarborough Centre the only reason you'd use Mushinski's sign strategy is if you have a shortage of legitimate sign locations).
	08/09/03	Mambo King Email:
The only people talking about Costas Manios in Scarborough Centre are the desperate Tories hoping somehow he can stop the landslide victory that Duguid is going to have in this riding. Drive around Scarborough Centre and it's a sea of Duguid signs. No Manios signs anywhere and only the odd Mushinski sign sticking out like a sore thumb. This riding will switch from the Tories to the Liberals and I don't think there's even a race hear any more.
	07/09/03	Chet Ripley Email:
Marilyn Mushinski is in a tough battle to hold on in this bellweather riding. Her potential saving grace is the Costas Manios candidacy which threatens to severely split the Liberal vote and siphon support from Brad Duguid. If Eves holds on to government Mushinksi wins, if McGuinty wins so does Duguid.
	07/09/03	AL Email:
Well, I think the reason the Liberals are throwing high level operatives into the race has nothing to do with Brad Duguid being "beloved" and everything to do with the Liberal riding association being suspended by the OLP for its support of Manios and the fact that Scarborough Centre is a "must pick up" for the Liberals (and a "must not lose" for the Tories). In the first week of the sign war Duguid is clearly winning but his dominance is clearer on main streets such as Ellesmere, Warden, McCowan etc where signs are more indicative of the aggressiveness of your sign crew than actual support. It does indicate, though, that despite the lack of support from the Liberal riding association Duguid does have a good number of campaign workers (whether paid or unpaid, local or parachuted in from other ridings matters less in the end) When you drive off the main roads and into neighbourhoods it's less clear who is ahead. Manios has a slick flyer (complete with an "endorsement" from Duguid and Greg Sorbara!) but despite his being backed by the Liberal riding association and clearly having some money it doesn't look like he'll have enough to make a dent. I saw Manios going door to door on Warden yesterday, alone, not only without the candidate blitz crew that usually accompanies a major candidate but without even one volunteer or staffer. While this indicates Manios is personally trying hard he doesn't, yet, seem to have the staff-power or money to make him at all viable. I've also only seen one Manios sign, a small one on Ellesmere where a campaign would usually put up a large sign - indicating that Manios doesn't have the money for a proper sign campaign. Laxer's level of support hinges largely on the effectiveness of the central NDP campaign. If by election day the NDP is polling in the mid to high 20s then Scarborough Centre is viable for the NDP (and, likely, if the NDP is doing that well in the second part of the campaign they will send staffers and money to enhance Laxer's effort in Scarborough Centre). If Tory support measured the early Ekos and Compas polls is sustained this will squeeze the NDP vote as some NDP voters panic and vote Liberal in order to try to defeat the Tories. This would hurt Laxer and help Duguid. And Duguid is a right wing Liberal, as are most of the Liberals listed as being John Tory supporters but in a tight province wide race this will matter less (and, in any case, the candidate doesn't matter to the majority of voters in an urban riding of Scarborough Centre).
	05/09/03	CHI Email:
Brad Duigud is not as right wing as many think. And he is hardly the only Liberal endorsing Tory for Mayor. Stephen LeDrew, Monte Kwinter, David Peterson, Jim Peterson, Judy Sgro and a ton of other Liberal Organizers and Backroom folks. I think Scarb. Centre will be a horse race. Marylin is a nice lady, and she is hard to smear, but Brad is loved in the riding by both side of the political spectrum...might be why both the Libs and the PCs have flown in several big name operatives to help out this race.
	05/09/03	Matt Email:
I'm reading everything with great interest. All the Tories seen to be banking on the fact that Costas Manios will split the Liberal vote and the Tory will prevail again. But I must point out something of interest. Manios hasn't registered as a candidate yet.
	02/09/03	RB Email:
Duguid is a rather right wing Liberal having endorsed John Tory for mayor. His conservativsm will attract votes from Mushinski and it'll also help Laxer get some of the left-liberal vote.
	01/09/03	ph Email: pharris@uwo.ca
Simple Math: 3 left or centre left candidates will all be taking votes form teh same pool. Mushinski is the only right of centre candidate and will benefit from this vote split. It is the reverse of what happens federally, Of course an independent is not going to win this riding but what Manios' candidacy will do is it will allow Mushinski to come up the middle and take it!
	01/09/03	Craig Email:
Duguid is staying in the provincial race as the Liberal candidate despite the fact the election will not be called until after the nomination deadline (September 25) for municipal elections. I feel this will be a close one, and it might be an act of desperation for the Tories knowing they are likely going to be wiped out in the City of Toronto. They might hang on, but Dalton's hand-picking of Duguid is old news, but it will be strongly exposed in the debates, The NDP candidate Laxer could really play spoiler as well. It is going to be a tight one. As for Costas Manios, he won't be a factor and should finish fourth. Current prediction: Duguid 38%, Mushinski 36%, Laxer 17%, Manios 5%, Carty 2%, others 2%.
	30/08/03	Kennedy Road Kid Email:
El Predicto's last post is laughable. To entirely dismiss Costas Manios is irrational at worst, and rash at best. Let's look at the facts: Manios is a prominent member of the Greek Community, and his name recognition much higher than Predicto seems to think. Manios will be able to mobilise part of the Greek community to come out to vote for him, especially after his unceremonious dumping as the nominated Liberal candidate. Running as an 'independent Liberal' will no doubt confuse parts of the electorate and perhaps dozens of true Red Liberals will accidentally support Manios. Expect Manios to do far better than the average independent candidate, making a decent dent into Duguid's support. As for Mushinski, her literature has been seen all over the riding, and her campaign has been in gear for months. She's up on Duguid two lit pieces to one, so it appears that she has a solid volunteer base. Scarborough Centre's blue-collar, middle-class, and seniors' populations will be all over mortgage interest deductibility and the seniors' tax credit, key components of the Tory platform. Granted, Duguid is a media darling, but getting your name on page 17 of the Toronto Star because you participate in a garbage truck tour of Southwestern Ontario and Michigan is hardly something to celebrate. Brad's time might be coming, but not while Mushinski is the incumbent. Expect this riding to stay blue.
	29/08/03	El Predicto Email:
You can forget about Costas Manios winning this riding or even making a difference. Independent candidates are fringe and nothing more. Look what happened to John Sewell in 1999. He was the former mayor of Toronto and a regular figure in the local media. Sewell ran in Toronto Centre-Rosedale and was expected to do very well. Instead Sewell only managed to get 19 per cent of the vote and finish third. If a high profile person like Sewell can't even challenge to win a riding, what kind of chance does an unknown like Costas Manios have? The answer is none. Manios is well known in the small circles of Liberal politics but that's it. He has no name recognition and is not going to be a factor. Scarborough Centre belongs to Brad Duguid. The Toronto media love him and he gets more coverage than the mayor these days. Mushinski is weak and won't be able to compete with Duguid. This riding will change hands and will be Liberal.
	18/08/03	Talking Head Email:
I wouldn't count Costas Manios out just yet. He mounted a respsecable campagin against the Torries in the last election and he is gearing up to do it again. My understanding is that Costas has managed to secure himself some political heavy hitters for his campagin. Including a former Frank Magazine writter. Lets face facts Duguid has no internal riding support from the liberals, in fact the Liberal Riding is backing Costas. Brad can bring in all the outside volounteers he wants, they still can't vote for him. Costas has the added bonus of being a Liberal Candidate who isn't burdened by the Liberals most obvious weakness, Dalton. With the PC numbers in freefall and the Liberals crippled I think SCC could be a battle between Costas and the NDP.
	24/07/03	Uncle Buck Email:
The Watcher sounds like he's stuck in 1999 when Mushinski got lucky that the NDP ran Syd Ryan and the Liberals ran Costas Manios. Now it's 2003 and Mushinski is out of horseshoes. Voters in Scarborough Centre aren't stupid. They know that the Tories are likely to lose power and they won't waste their votes on a failed backbencher like Mushinski. Brad Duguid is the future of Scarborough Centre.
	21/07/03	The Watcher Email:
I think Scooby Doo has clearly been into the Scooby Snacks. If you actually read my posts, I am giving an observation that there are numerous people on this site, many presumably hacks or staff, who have been saing that Brad is a shoo-in. What I'm saying is this: my observations run counter to the predictions made so far. I have not seen Brad active in the community, I haven't received any material, and when I do see him in public, it doesn't look like he has a real team behind him. On the other hand, I have received material and a visit from Marilyn and whenever I see her in puiblic she has a large, diverse team behind with her. I'm not saying its a lock, I'm just saying she's a winner. As I have repeatedly stated-- I think all of what is being said on this site is just spin. I have yet to hear from anyone as to why Brad will win, besides that he's youthful and is the "next generation". We in Scarborough Centre aren't stupid; I don't need another politician with all sizzle and no steak. I'll give Brad one thing--he's great with the photo ops, etc, but I haven't heard what he will do for me or my neighbours.
	19/07/03	Paint My Fence Email:
Brad Duguid was all over the newspapers and television again this week. You have to ask yourself, why does the media cover this guy so much. The answer is they know a rising star in the political game when they see one. Everyone knows who Brad Duguid is and he's going to beat Mushinski by at least 8000 votes. If anyone cares, Michael Laxer of the NDP will be lucky to get 15 per cent of the vote and get his rebate.
	15/07/03	Scooby Doo Email:
It seems like the Watcher is saying he sees Marilyn Mushinski getting re-elected because she a few volunteers were handing out swag and had a band at the Canada celebration. This is the type of thinking that is leading the Tories out of power. Mushinski has been at Queen's Park for over 8 years and her biggest accomplishment was getting thrown out of cabinet. Mushinski got elected on the Mike Harris coatails in 1995 and on the Syd Ryan vote split in 1999. Without Harris and Ryan to help her, Mushinski is on her own. Someone mentioned that Mushinski looks tired and worn out. That's the best way to describe her. I haven't seen anyone call Brad Duguid a saint, but his has been one of the more effective members of city council. There is a feeling of change in the air this summer and Brad Duguid is going to ride that and his good record on council to victory.
	12/07/03	Hop on Pop Email:
Marilyn Mushinski would have been beaten in 1999 if the Liberals had run a better candidate than Costas Manios. This time the Liberals took no chances and grabbed one of the brightest lights on the Toronto city council to run for them. Brad Duguid will give this riding to the Liberals and there's nothing Mushinski will be able to do about it. I think we'll see Robert Carty of the Green Party edging out Mike Laxer for third place as the NDP continues to fade to nothing.
	09/07/03	The Watcher Email:@canada.com
Ah... once again the talking heads are talking about the "saintly" Brad Duguid who will be swooping in to save Liberal fortunes. It sounds to me like there is more spinning than an actual discussion on facts. Well, this is as real as it gets-- I was down with my kid at the Canada Day parade and the shindig at Thompson's Park in Scarbrough. I am pleased to present to you my findings. Firstly, no one I talked to thinks Brad is a "star candidate". Frankly, I couldn't find anyone who could think of something that he actual has done for them in the ward (when they knew who he was). Secondly, I was suprised by the different candidates representation in the parade itself. When I saw Marilyn walk by, she had a large number of volunteers giving out swag and having a good time. She also seemed to be getting into the band she sponsored. Then, behind her, comes Brad with two folks (one guy, one girl) that someone told me was his staff. That's it! For someone who has a "top notch team" coming in around the province, you'd think he would be better organized. Actually, I still haven't seen anything from Brad that doesn't have the City of Toronto logo on it. You know what I'd like to see? Reasons why Brad will win. What makes him so special? What makes this riding "Duguid country"? All I've been hearing about on this site is how youthful and neato he is! Let's get an inventory of what really matters--what he's done for the riding! And what the Liberals will actually do for the riding. When I found this site during the 99 election, I thought it would just be a forum for parties to slag each other. But it turned out to be a great discussion. I'd like to see that again.
	10/07/03	Mayor McCheese Email:
Right now it looks like the Liberals have a real chance of forming a small majority government. That means Brad Duguid wins Scarborough Centre by a huge margin and will be sitting around the cabinet table sometime in November. Mushinski and Laxer will be run over by the Duguid campaign.
	10/07/03	AL Email:
It's quite simple really, Scarborough Centre is a swing riding and the Tories are in collapse. Mushinski doesn't help matters with her aloof manner and habit of passing on all candidates meetings. The Liberals are internally divided. The real damage Manios' candidacy will have will be in denying Duguid the volunteers and money he needs to run. Duguid, not even able to win a nomination meeting, has been revealed to be a hollowman. With the Liberals divided and the Tories in decline and the NDP having a history in this riding look for the NDP to come up the middle and win.
	08/07/03	Speak Easy Email:
I know AL and I know he's just kidding himself if he really believes Laxer will do anything but fight it out with the Green party at the bottom of the vote count. This is now Duguid country and he'll wipe Mushinski out on election day.
	06/07/03	ME Email:
To AL/ARL (yeah we know who you are): I absolutely agree with everything you said, but I do not follow how are they suppose to lead to a NDP victory. Or is that just your old partisanship bias? I thought they don't want you anymore.
	04/07/03	Pound Puppy Email:
The NDP and the Tories can spin all they want that Brad Duguid isn't a big deal but the truth is that the minute Duguid got in this contest, it meant Mushinski and Laxer would be fighting for second place at best. The Liberals are going to pick up seats in Toronto this year. Scarborough Centre is one for sure. I agree with Mambo King when he said that Mushinski looks worn out. I think she knows her time is up.
	04/07/03	AL Email:
The Ontario Liberal Party has had to put the Scarborough Centre Liberal Assoc into trusteeship because of their insistance on backing Costas Manios. If Duguid can't even win over his own riding association and can't win a nomination meeting how is he supposed to win an election especially with no volunteers and no money when Manios has both? Manios' guerilla campaign as an Independent Liberal is going to sink Duguid and teach McGuinty a lesson about local democracy in the process.
	27/06/03	Mambo King Email:
I hate to be the one to give the Tories and the NDP the bad news but Brad Duguid is a sure thing to win Scarborough Centre. Mushinski looks tired and worn out like a lot of Tory backbenchers. In contrast, Duguid is a perfect example of a new generation taking it's place in the Ontario legislature. As far as the NDP goes in this riding, strategic voting will be alive and well as people have already figured out the only way to get rid of Mushinski is to vote for Duguid. There is no race here, it's all over.
	24/06/03	Political Hack Email:
I can agree with AL that Syd Ryan's campaign in Scarborough Centre was a disaster. There was no direction, no plan. What Syd did have in 1999 was hundreds of union volunteers that flooded the streets of this riding as they dropped brochures, made phone calls and tried to pull the vote. The unions also sank a lot of cash into the Ryan campaign. With Ryan taking a shot in Oshawa, the union people have moved down the 401 to help him there. Mike Laxer will not have a tenth of the troops Ryan had and that leads to my point. Laxer lacks any community profile in this riding. He has few volunteers and fewer dollars. There is now way this riding goes to the NDP this time. Brad Duguid has recruited some of the better campaign organizers in the province and raised more than enough money to run his campaign. Everyone wants in on the Duguid campaign because he's going to win. Add it all up and Duguid beats Mushinski.
	22/06/03	AL Email:
Sid Ryan's campaign was a disaster. The riding association was all set to nominate one person when party headquarters phoned and said they'd like Sid to be the candidate. The nomination meeting was deeply divided (unlike the Liberals, though, the NDP actually has nomination meetings) and the constituency association deeply resentful largely sat out of the election (not unlike what Duguid is facing this time). Not to mention that Sid, though high profile, is also contraversial and was not a good fit for a riding which, though it often votes NDP, is not a union stronghold so Sid's name probably alienated as many voters as it attracted (in contrast, Sid is a much better fit for a union stronghold like Oshawa). And finally, the central NDP campaign didn't end up doing very well. This time, without internal divisions in the riding association, without a "strategic voting" buzz that only benefitted the Liberals, with an incumbent who still won't show up at all candidates meetings and with the Liberal campaign saddled with the divisions and strife that hobbled Sid in 1999 it's the NDP that has the best chance of takng this riding from the Tories.
	13/06/03	Dale Email:
Brad Duguid's side kick Hratch's submissions, aka the Repo man and Mushinski's done are not in tune with reality. First of all Brad doesn't even have the endorsement of his own riding association which every candidate running for any political party in this election does and secondly, he has Costas Manios to contend with. Costas is like the SARS epidemic. He wont go away but remerge in new clusters with greater force and strength. Coupled with the fact that Marylin is very popular and well liked, the overall Liberal wave to victory will not hit the shores of Scarborough Southwest.
	13/06/03	The watcher Email:
I've seen a lot of people submit predictions that Mushinski (check the spelling) will be beaten handily. But let's look at the facts. Yes, Marilyn very rarely gets into the paper--a shock certainly that a Conservative MPP doesn't get into a liberal rag like the Mirror--but when she does, its over actual issues like more police funding, hospital investments and the like. Duguid's coverage? Screwing up the garbage file, enraging small business owners over the banning pesticides and his important "war on illegal signs". I think Mushinski recognizes that Duguid is a formidable foe. However, there were many predictions that another "star candidate" would clean her clock in 1999: the darling of the left, Sid Ryan. And we all know what happened there. Mushinski is well known, has a great track record and is working her butt off. She has been to my door, I've gotten mail and phone calls from her campaign and so have my friends in the riding. Duguid is running a typical "arrogant supposed frontrunner" campaign. He's too busy picking out the fabric of the curtains in his Minister's Office and ignoring what matters, namely the voters. He has to stop believing his own press releases. I haven't seen one thing from Duguid that articulates his vision for the riding. Maybe he's hoping that the good folk at Scarborough Centre won't notice. Let's add to the mix that word on the street is that he has no money because it's locked up with the riding association. The same association that is owned by Costas Manios. He's a great councillor, but Queen's Park is the big leagues. He needs to start learning how to swinging at the pitches. Last word--remember, everyone loves an underdog. Mushinski will do this "star" in.
	06/06/03	Reepo Man Email:
Brad Duguid seems to be in the newspaper at least two or three times a week since he became the Liberal candidate. I can't remember seeing Marilyn Mushinski in the newspapers for years. It seems like Brad has all the momentum and will make this a Liberal victory in the fall.
	03/06/03	Mushinksi's Done Email:
Duguid will win this riding in a romp. Duguid knocked off a Mushinksi once before (Marilyn's ex-husband Paul Mushinksi was ousted in the Mega-City elections by Duguid)and He will do it this time to the Tory's Marilyn Mushinksi. Duguid is just too good (the guy got over 80% of the vote in the last municipal election - unheard of, even if was against a no-name poverty candidate. He's smart, intelligent and a hard worker...Mushinki is none of those things. If she were smart she would retire now before she is embarrassed...It's ironic that Mushinksi will be beat by Duguid. Duguid used to work for former Scarborough Mayor Frank Faubert. Frank Faubert whipped Mushinki when she ran for Mayor. History does repat itself.
	23/05/03	AL Email:
The poll sounds fairly meaningless, especially as Manios is not running as an independent but as a Liberal. Remember, party affiliations aren't listed on provincial ballots and while the Ontario Liberal Party may go to court stopping Manios from using the word Liberal on his literature (though this possibility hasn't stopped him from using the Liberal logo on his literature so far) they can't do anything to stop him from using Liberal colours on his signs and literature and doing everything he can to make people think he's a Liberal. Did the poll ask who people would vote for if they had a choice between Liberal Duguid, Tory Mushinski, NDPer Laxer and Independent Manios or did it list names without mentioning party affiliation. If the former than the poll isn't worth the money the Grits spent on it.
	20/05/03	Scoop Jackson Email:
Brad Duguid had the Liberals do a poll in Scarborough Centre before he would agree to run there. The poll showed Duguid with a huge margain of victory even with Manios running as an idependent. Anyone who knows Duguid would understand that he wouldn't be running if the riding wasn't a lock for him to win. My NDP contacts tell me that they knew Duguid would be almost impossible to beat. That's why there's no candidate with the name recognition of a Syd Ryan running in Scarborough Centre this time. I can also confirm that the unions who played a big part in the Ryan camapaign in 1999 are not involved with the Laxer campaign this time. Looks like an easy win for Duguid.
	15/05/03	ARL Email:
An interesting piece of literature came through the mail slot today. A card announcing Costas Manios as the Liberal candidate in Scarborough Centre, complete with Liberal logo and authorization from the "Scarborough Centre Liberal Riding Association." Yup, it seems like Brad Duguid's riding executive is treating Costas Manios as the legitimate Liberal candidate and went to the expense of paying for a riding wide mail drop in order to announce that fact. With the Tories sinking and two "Liberal" candidates look for the NDP to come up the middle.
	15/05/03	Craig Email:
This one is tough. Based on polls alone, the Liberals would be on their way to a romp though. However, the fact that Dalton appointed their candidated with no nomination meeting will hurt the Liberals, who will probably lose votes on both sides. The Tory candidate Mushinski will find a new life in that fact when it is exposed in the debates, to turn a Liberal romp into a tight race. Predicted results: LIB 42%, PC 41%, NDP 12%, Green 4%. Too close to call though - it could go either way.
	09/05/03	El Predicto Email:
There's my old friend ARL dreaming away again about the NDP winning Scarborough Centre. Let's remember 1999. The NDP ran "star" candidate, Syd Ryan and had union members from all over Ontario working on his campaign. Syd brought the NDP in this riding money and profile. On top of that, the Liberals ran an unknown in Costas Manios and Marilyn Mushinski was tossed out of the Tory cabinet. The NDP had all that going for them and Syd still finished a bad third. This time the NDP are running a total unknown in Michael Laxer. The unions are busy working in other ridings. Then you have a real star candidate in Brad Duguid running for the Liberals. Duguid has a very strong team from his municipal campaigns and Liberals from all over the east end of Toronto are pouring into Scarborough Centre because they know Duguid is going to win. I told you back in February that Duguid was going to be the Liberal candidate and that he'd win this riding. Sorry ARL but Laxer will end up in the same place Syd did. A bad third.
	06/05/03	Number Cruncher Email:
Looking at the numbers, one thing is clear. The NDP had a very well known candidate in this riding last time and were only able to get 19 per cent of the vote. Michael Laxer is not as well known as Syd Ryan and with the NDP remaining a distant third in the polls, the numbers clearly indicate that this riding will not be won by the NDP. The race between the Conservatives and the Liberals is very interesting. Mushinski received only 43 per cent of the vote yet won by nearly 4000 votes. This was clearly a case of vote splitting helping the Conservatives win a riding. Duguid gives the Liberals a much better known candidate who puts up very good muncipal numbers. Add to that the leading position the Liberals enjoy in the polls and the numbers point to a Liberal victory.
	05/05/03	IanB Email:
Although the outcome of this riding is by no means certain, I doubt that the NDP will win this time around. Sure, the NDP was strong here back in the '70s and '80s, but all that has changed -- the Liberals used be strong in rural areas back in the day as well, but I don't think they're going to win there either. The NDP had a much stronger, more high-profile candidate in Sid Ryan the last time around and he came third -- and if Muchinski could beat Ryan she'll beat Laxer, an also-ran federally as well (whose qualification is what, exactly, being Jim Laxer's son?). Although I wouldn't call Duguid a sure bet either, this riding is more likely to split NDP-Liberal than anything else.
	03/05/03	ARL Email:
Brad Duguid's been appointed the Liberal candidate according to today's Star. How much traction can Duguid have if he couldn't win a nomination meeting outright and had to get daddy Dalton appoint him? With Manios likely running as an independent and at best with much of the riding's Liberal machine sitting this one out or working in neighboring ridings Duguid's in for a much tougher ride than expected. Look for the NDP to pick up Duguid's slack and become a contender in this riding which they held, on and off, from the 1970s until 1995.
	02/05/03	Scoop Jackson Email:
May 1 the Liberals make it official. Brad Duguid is their candidate in Scarborough Centre. Duguid is the star candidate the Liberals had been waiting for and will take this riding.
	18/04/03	The Watcher Email:
The history of appointed candidates is not great in Toronto. If you can't win a contested nomination meeting how do you expect to be able to win the election? The fact is Brad Duguid is vastly overrated, the reason he got 90% of the vote in the last municipal election is because he only had one opponent, Tooker Gomberg's wife who ran on a wingnut Green, granola platform. The Liberals are so desperate they even tried to trick the NDP into nominating a paid young Liberal staffer as their candidate with the hope that a sabotaged NDP campaign would help the Duguid, a trick that didn't get very far given that a) Michael Laxer, a real New Democrat, was running for the nomination and had the full backing of the riding association and b) a google check exposed the Liberal trickster rather quickly. Why would the Grits be so desperate as to attempt this sort of dirty trick (not illegal, perhaps, but definitely unethical) if they actually had any confidence that Duguid could win on his own?
	16/04/03	Dick Richardson Email:
This will be very close... obviously Brad Duguid is a strong candidate. But one has to wonder whether the not so private battle between Lorenzo Berardinetti and Duguid will have an effect. Costas Manios and Berardinetti are good friends and it would seem neither has much good to say about the Liberal "golden boy" Duguid. Also, it will be interesting to see how well Mr. Duguid adapts to the big time of Provincial politics. He did not fair well when the Mayor of Sarnia questioned him on his Garbage Tour/Infomerical. He has never really been challenged before, will he lose his cool when the heat is on?
	08/04/03	ARL Email:
More LIberal infighting. From Bruce Demara's "Skinny at City Hall" column in the Toronto Star, April 7 2003: "If Councillor Brad Duguid was waffling about running for the provincial Liberals in Scarborough Centre in the upcoming election, the poison pen letter that landed on his doorstep recently has surely stiffened his resolve to proceed. The three-page rant by alleged "supporters" of Costas Manios, who ran for the Libs last time out and lost, is sure to be the final straw as a result of its lengthy and tiresome threats to harass Duguid through a campaign of billboards, phone banks and a veritable army of hecklers. The melodramatic missive promises to drag Duguid's name "through the mud" and damage his reputation "forever" if he accepts an appointment to run in the riding by Liberal leader Dalton McGuinty. In the next breath, it promises to assist him in future campaigns if he does "the right thing." Manios has, indeed, been hard done by in his efforts to represent the Liberals a second time against Tory MPP Marilyn Mushinski. But even he has to realize that tactics like this will only backfire. The letter does nothing but force a previously reluctant Duguid to take up the challenge. We expect his announcement to that effect very soon."
	01/04/03	THE GAMBLER Email:
The Gambler is putting his money on Brad Duguid to win Scarborough Centre. LIB Duguid is one of the best prospects any team has coming up in this election. Brad just has too much youth on his side going up against the slower Mushinski. The surprise will be just how easy Duguid makes winning this riding look. Get an advance on your credit cards if you have to, but get some money on Duguid to win.
	29/03/03	ARL Email:
This is a swing riding which the NDP has been able to win in the 1970s, 1985 and of course 1990. With Eves weighing in on the war an NDP candidate who strongly comes out against the war can win over Muslim voters enraged at Eves' statement and disaffected by the Liberal ambiguity. This, along with the NDP's traditional roots in this riding could give the party a suprise victory if Hampton's campaign goes well causing a rising tide to lift all ships. Michael Laxer, an articulate activist and shop owner is running for the NDP nomination and would be an especially strong candidate against Mushinski and Duguid and could end up on top in a close three way race.
	28/03/03	ARL Email:
There is a large Arab population in Scarborough Centre which Premier Ernie Eves has just alienated with his letter in support of the war. Sure, the war is not a provincial issue, at least it wasn't until Eves made it one, but for Muslim voters it's the principle issue at the moment and Eves has just stepped in it at least as far as ridings such as Scarborough Centre are concerned.
	14/03/03	El Predicto Email:
Let's get a couple things straight here. Brad Duguid is going to be the Liberal candidate in Scarborough Centre. That said, Duguid is more than strong enough to take this seat from Marilyn even if Manios runs as an independent. Look at the history. Independent candidates no matter how well known they are don't draw enough votes to make any kind of impact on the final result. In the case of Costas Manios, he is known in Liberal circles but that's about it. That means he will get a few hundred votes but no more. I still stand by my prediction that Duguid will take this seat for the Liberals.
	13/03/03	Not Non Partisan Email:
If the Libs appoint Duguid to the nomination does Costas Manios (as is widely rumoured) run as an independent? If so hello (again) Marilyn.
	27/02/03	PMK Email:
Scarborough has done very well under the Mushinski and the Tories- economic activity is way up, crime is down, huge investments have been made in the local hospitals and in long-term care. Without the distractions of cabinet, Mushinski has returned to form as an excellent local representative, which is why she's represented the voters of this riding at various levels for the past 20 years. The potential Liberal canidate, local councillor Brad Duguid, has a high profile. Unfortunately for young Bradley, is recent bumbling performance in Sarnia (I'm sure everyone saw the embarrassing footage) as part of his disastrous "magical garbage tour" proves he's probably not the golden boy the Liberals desperately need here.
	24/02/03	Not Non Partisan Email:
There was a time when the old Scarborough Ellesmere riding was the ultimate bellweather. Ask in-again, out-again NDPer David Warner. No more. Marilyn Mushinski has a real organization and it shows in the results in 95 and 99 (as well as her highly credible run for Mayor in 94.
	14/02/03	El Predicto Email:
Toronto city councillor, Brad Duguid is going to be the Liberal candidate in this riding. Duguid will be too strong for Mushinski this time. The only reason the Tories hung on to Scraborough Cente last time was Syd Ryan ran for the NDP and split the vote. This time Syd is running in Oshawa so this riding will go Liberal.
	03/02/03	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Ironically, given her ineffectual cabinet term and current backbench right-populism, Mushinski was a conscientious Scarborough councillor who was even favoured by some "progressive" forces over the late Frank Faubert for the 1994 Scarborough mayoralty. The main question is how much the demographic evolution of this tired slab of Scarberia/Scarlem/Scartrek/Scarface has really electorally rejected the Tories, for good. (Or how much the NDP still insist they have a valid strategic-vote chance here--after Sid Ryan's '99 flameout, fat chance, but you never know.) But if Mushinski does lose as part of a wave, she might lose real big...only to return to her true political calling by filling the likely(?) council vacancy of either Messrs Duguid or Berardinetti. So, backhandedly, all is not lost. (Look at Faubert; several years after losing big here, he became mayor...)
	21/01/03	Andrew Cox Email:
Too Close to Call. Reasons: 1) Marilyn Mushinski has been a real bench warmer for the PCs, only entering cabinet briefly in the junior "Culture" portfolio. While some MPPs spend their post-cabinet days working their ranch in Oklahoma, Mushinski keeps busy in her riding with lots of events and outreach. 2) Mushinski is like a dog with a bone on Karla Homolka, constantly worrying the fears of Ontarians about her parole, conditions, etc. (Ironic, since her government chose to sustain the "deal with the devil" that will see her freed in a few scant years.) That kind of "tough on criminals" stuff works well in blue-collar Scarborough. But its not exactly a pocketbook issue. Who is really in favour of Karla Homolka? 3) Centre is the poorest, least educated and least engaged of the five Scarboroughs with a mish-mash of immigrant communities making up almost half the population. This riding gets most of its political information from the cover of the Sun, TV ads and wor! d of mouth. That means nothing is a lock and any local media effect will be minimal. Of the five Scarboroughs, this is the only one I don't think will definately go Liberal. It really will depend on the candidates door knocking and the central campaign. 4) The Grits have a couple strong choices for candidate here. They could go again with Costas Manios, who has been working the riding hard for four years. They could try Brad Duguid, a well-respected local councilor. 5) The real story here last time was the failure of the NDP to reemerge in a traditional base with an "All-Star" candidate in Sid Ryan. To finish with less than 20% of the vote under those conditions places a hard cap on what they can be expected to do in the near future. Conclusions: In this unpredictable seat, I predict a tough two-way fight.
	26/10/02	AL Email:
If Marilyn Mushinski runs for the Tories this might be a Toronto riding that they can hold on to!

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