Sarnia-Lambton

Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Sarnia-Lambton

Last Update:
3:04 PM 28/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
2:42 AM 11/09/2003

Political Profile:

Candidates:
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Liberal Party:
Caroline di Cocco

Progressive Conservative:
Henk Venden Ende

New Democratic Party:
Glen Sonier

Green Party:
Bradley Gray

Incumbent:

Caroline Di Cocco

Federal MP:

Roger Gallaway

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

Plurality 2761

CAROLINE DI COCCO

19440 48.91%

*DAVE BOUSHY

16679 41.96%

MARK KOTANEN

3110 7.82%

ANDREW K. FALBY

517 1.3%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction

Plurality 8 121

Roger Gallaway

19 329 51%

Dave Christie

11 208 29.6%

Paul Bailey

3 320 8.8%

Glenn Sonier

2 735 7.2%

Demographic Profile:

Population

2001 88331

1996 90697

1991 92049

(1996 census)
Age

0-19 25360

20-39 24575

40-59 23590

60+ 17165

Avg Household Income
$60284

Labour Participation 63.50%

Unemployment 10.50%

Canadian Citizen
97.18%

Canadian Born 85.93%

Ontario Born 77.52%

Immigrant 13.90%

Visible Minority 2.91%

Aboriginal 2.12%

First Language

English 79310

French 2365

Residence

House 79.82%

Apartment 19.25%

Owned 71.49%

Rented 28.51%

Avg Dwelling Value $127204

Education

University 12285

College/Trade School 25080

Secondary 28585

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	26/09/03	Darcy Email: darcyhiggins@canada.com
Yes it will be an easy hold. Though Henk is a very effective candidate in a couple ways, he won't get the support here. The NDP will do better here because of a couple Observer articles & less strategic voting. Brad Gray's campaign is strong with a good website & campaign office. Caroline 52%, Henk 28%, Glenn 13%, Brad 5%, Andrew 2%.
	25/09/03	Christopher J. Currie Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
Ernie Eves recently held a rally at a private school in this riding. This alone indicates that the Tories aren't seriously contemplating taking it back. Easy Liberal hold.
	23/09/03	Swiftr Email:
Mr. Burell should read The Observer a little more carefully and more often. In fact, most of the local labour unions endorse both Liberal candidates in the Sarnia-Lambton and Lambton-Kent-Middlesex ridings.
	10/09/03	Terry Burrell Email:
The Liberal incumbent relied on beng endorsed by the local labour coucil in the last election. They have endorsed the NDP candidate and are working against the liberal as per a report in The Sarnia Observer on September 15, 2003.
	10/09/03	Craig Email:
Caroline Di Cocco should retain this riding, since there will be moderate strength both left and right but Di Cocco has been showing leadership on the toxic waste issue and environmental issues. She could be Minister of the Environment in a Liberal government. The Tories have not produced anything on that issue and the NDP has some strength among unions but not enough. Current prediction: Di Cocco 48%, Sonier 22%, Venden Ende 18%, Gray 10%, others 2%.
	06/09/03	Frozen Toast Email:
I think this should be the next riding that is put in the Liberal side of the ledger. Caroline Di Cocco is running a better campaign than she did when she won in 1999. The Tories are stuck with Henk who is nothing more than a laughing stock in Sarnia. There's nothing the Tories are offering in this election that really apeals in Sarnia and they know it. Di Cocco is assured of another term.
	04/09/03	Tory in Dixie Email: canadien76@hotmail.com
When you look at the history of Sarnia Lambton, it is true that the Tories held it during the 1987 debacle under the respected Andy Brandt. However, prior to 1981 Sarnia regularly elected Liberals to Queen's Park. It is also interesting to note that the Tory won here by a small margin in 1995. So while a Tory victory is not impossible, it should not figure into realistic plans for a third majority.
	22/07/03	Spindoctor Barbie Email: barbie@mateltoys.com
Every time Conservative candidate Henk Vendon Ende opens his mouth, he sounds like a fringe party candidate rather than someone representing the governing party. Caroline Di Cocco has this riding all sewn up.
	23/05/03	Craig Email:
Caroline Di Cocco seems to have strengthened her profile and the Liberal fortunes have greatly improved, without the Tories to really worry about (they are collapsing). As a result, she should hold on easily. The NDP will strengthen some with the chemical workers, and could finish second, but it won't be enough unless they rise at least into the upper 20s in the polls. Predicted results: LIB 46%, NDP 23%, PC 19%, Green 8%.
	12/05/03	Grizz Email:
This was close last time around, but times have changed. People want change and in ridings where the anti-PC vote could get split means the voters will likely rally around the Liberals come election day. This is one spot where it will look tight until the end when people will cast their vote for the Liberals.
	14/04/03	THE GAMBLER Email:
The Gambler is putting his money on Caroline Di Cocco to win Sarnia-Lambton. LIB Caroline looked too tough and kept a couple of PC prospects from getting in the ring with her. PC Vendon Ende is too green and is not a threat to Di Cocco. Take a second mortgage out on your house and put the money on Caroline to win.
	25/03/03	El Predicto Email:
A big problem that Caroline Di Cocco is going to have this time is that the NDP are up in the polls and have a good candidate in Sonier. Brad Grey give the Green Party a respectable candidate to. This means that people in Sarnia have three choices if they don't like what the Tories have done in the last eight years. This vote split will allow Henke to come up the middle and take this seat back for the Tories. I stand by my prediction of a Tory victory.
	23/03/03	Darcy Email: darcy.higgins@st-clair.net
Walkerton isn't that close to "big-town" Sarnia, but they defintiely will remember the education system & schools closing in our area, as well as weak pollution controls, faulty democracy, missing doctors in the emergency room and poor homecare. Depending on how well Brad Gray does (you could pick up a few percent) and the NDP will likely stay below 15%. Henk may surprise with good leadership but who knows. New candidates may not do so well.
	20/03/03	ARL Email:
With Walkerton still fresh in people's minds there is no way the Tories are going to pick up any seats in SW Ontario.
	02/03/03	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Actually, the Tory roots in Sarnia aren't as strong as they might appear from Andy Brandt's regime and Tom Long's childhood. It remains an "industry town", maybe not as Toryphobic as Windsor, but the blue-collar Harris-PC wave lapped rather shallowly here. And technically, it was "long overdue" for a provincial Liberal to be elected in Sarnia--the town's also not as NDPphobic as it may appear, but the fact of a Liberal incumbent neutralizes the New Democrats. Also, a lot of what passes for Conservative strength is spillover from the FCP (which sat out 1999, but it didn't help Boushy one bit). In sum: you have to be sniffing chemicals to think that Di Cocco's a fluke and the chemical corridor's natural way is Tory, Tory, Tory to the max. It isn't. And with her size of margin, only catastrophe will fell Di Cocco.
	26/02/03	El Predicto Email:
Everyone was shocked when Caroline Di Cocco won this seat for the Liberals in 1999. The Tories are going to do everything they can to take it back this time around. They are off to a good start with Henk as their candidate. He's a very strong candidate who'll appeal to the Tory base in the riding, some of who, slid over to Di Cocco last time. It's going to be close but the Tories are going to take back Sarnia-Lambton. Mark this one down for the Tories.
	25/02/03	Andy Email: andyk8123@hotmail.com
Right now I am giving the edge to the Liberals in this riding because the NDP is not a factor provincial or federal for that matter both times 7%. I think the final results on election day will be the same as last time Liberals with about 45-50%, Tories 40-45%, and the NDP 5-10%.
	10/02/03	Panther Email:
I predict this riding will be a Tory pickup crushing the current Liberal MPP. The local Tories had their nomination meeting this past weekend. Over 2000 people were there voting for their candidate (four candidates were on the first ballot including the former MPP, Dave Boushy.) The successful candidate was Henk vandenEnde, a young, charismatic, determined "ideal candidate". Aside from electing a candidate, the weekend events proved that this riding is organized, ready and able to soundly beat the Liberal MPP. For the past 4 years this riding was without an MPP. The Liberal MPP apparently disappeared after her surprise 1999 victory. The people of S-L are sick of this ineffective representation. The results of the 1999 election was an accident that will NOT repeat itself. Look for Sarnia Lambton to vote in droves for a the Tories.
	19/01/03	M.S. Email:
The NDP are dormant here. DiCocco will have the advantage of being an incumbent and her record of working hard. The Tories are less popular today than they were in 1999, and Ernie Eves certainly isn't reinvigorating anyone. DiCocco is also fighting hard to stop the untreated toxic sludge from coming here, and I think people will really support her for that. In the end though, this will probably come down to momentum between the Tories and Liberals, and this one will go Liberal.
	15/11/02	Andrew Cox Email:
1) Caroline Di Cocco was an unexpected Grit win here in 1999. She didn't run much of a campaign, but still sailed in with a healthy victory based on anti-Tory anger and her own reputation. 2) An incumbent Di Cocco will run a stronger campaign, with proper vote identification and GOTV. That means fewer Grit votes will be left at home on election day. 3) It looks like Dave Boushy will be running again for the Conservatives. Like Bruce Smith in Elgin, Bousy got in on the Harris wave in 1995, did little as MPP, was defeated in 1999, and doesn't bring much to the table for 2003. 4) The NDP here is a non-entity. 5) Ernie Eves mishandling of hydro isn't going to win him much support in a riding where heavy industry is king. 6) Di Cocco's split with the Liberal riding association was in 1999, giving her lots of time to rebuild a local organization. 7) Di Cocco is quite well respected in the riding for speaking her mind. Before getting election, she took on the Catholic Church in a dispute over the sale of Catholic School Board property, conducting an inquiry into the deal. 8) Her work to clean up Safety-Kleen hasn't won her the favour of the management, but helps her with area residents concerned about the water and air. 9) The Observer was pro-Boushy in the 1999 election, but swung around behind Di Cocco since then. Expect her to get better media coverage this time around. No reason to expect a change here unless the Liberals completely tank in the election.
	31/10/02	Darcy Email: darcy.higgins@st-clair.net
This is a strong Liberal area - We had an easy Lib win federally, with a Liberal MPP & mayor. Caroline has a chance of a cabinet seat if elected. The NDP isn't too strong here, and if the same four people run, I don't see why there would be much difference at all from the last election. I hope strategic voting will help her because the NPD doesn't have a chance here. I agree with Pete (Jeff Ballingal) - I wish the NDP was stronger, but since they're not enough to win - Caroline! (she's been okay)
	27/10/02	Pete Email:
Buddy your on crack. Sarnia is much to rich to vote NDP. Windsor is a much different city than Sarnia. The CAW has a lot more control over its members than the unions in Sarnia do. Di Cocco has upset large amounts of people and McGuinty is a Grade A moron. People will now either vote for the NDP (hopefully Kotanen) or PC (most likely Boushy). Yes, the NDP will gain many votes (it's pretty easy when there was only 8%), but overall Sarnia will go blue once again.
	26/10/02	Craig Email:
...BUT Boushy had the same problems too. A new poll shows Tory support down 9% and the Liberals are flat provincewide, meaning the NDP have a lot to gain. I predict an NDP surprise here, as they will have some strong support down in Windsor and it will spread through Southwestern Ontario up to Sarnia. The Tories and Liberals will also split votes to help the NDP steal this riding.
	26/10/02	Jeff Ballingall Email:
Di Cocco has really upset a ton of people. From the union workers, the wealthy, to even fellow liberals, there is no change the Caroline will win. People will side against her as she wants to shut down the Lambton Generating Station, and has been a very strong critic of Safety Kleen. Let's think back to the 1999 election: over 1000 protesters at the Caucus meeting. As for 2002, not one stinking activist. No teachers, no union leaders, I guess the have finally realized they are wrong. Eves has brought change to Ontario's political seen and that is why I predict Boushy will win this seat by at least 8%.

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