Mississauga South

Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Mississauga South

Last Update:
4:43 PM 07/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
30 October 2002

Political Profile:

Candidates:
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Liberal Party:
Tim Peterson

Progressive Conservative:
Margaret Marland

New Democratic Party:
Ken Cole

Green Party:
Pamela Murray

Incumbent:

Margaret Marland

Federal MP:

Paul Szabo

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

Plurality 11615

*MARGARET MARLAND

23890 61.27%

IEVA MARTIN

12275 31.48%

KEN COLE

2293 5.88%

TIM SULLIVAN

535 1.37%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction

Plurality 10 537

Paul Szabo

20 676 51.8%

Brad Butt

10 139 25.4%

David Brown

6 903 17.3%

Ken Cole

1 636 4.1%

Demographic Profile:

Population

2001 101647

1996 100260

1991 99333

(1996 census)
Age

0-19 42235

20-39 44420

40-59 32560

60+ 8810

Avg Household Income
$70862

Labour Participation 76.80%

Unemployment 6.90%

Canadian Citizen
89.81%

Canadian Born 64.82%

Ontario Born 53.85%

Immigrant 34.62%

Visible Minority 27.17%

Aboriginal 0.29%

First Language

English 90990

French 2210

Chinese 5440

Portuguese 3065

Italian 2840

Polish 2730

Residence

House 81.87%

Apartment 17.90%

Owned 76.20%

Rented 23.80%

Avg Dwelling Value $208594

Education

University 31320

College/Trade School 28380

Secondary 31590

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	01/10/03	JM Email:
Margaret Marland was at the Clarkson GO train station on Tuesday morning greeting commuters on their way to work. Judging from the garbage cans inside the station and on the platform, 19 out of 20 people who took her literature dumped it without reading it (we Canadians are too polite not to take a pamphlet from a nice little old lady). Curiously this is the only time I've seen anyone from the tory camp during this campaign and I live in Lorne Park, allegedly a tory stronghold. Margaret has a few big signs around on the same lawns that have had Tory signs in the past. There is no momentum. Margaret may have been the MPP in Mississauga South since Confederation but few residents of the riding could identify her in a police lineup. Her contribution has not been memorable. Peterson, on the other hand is running a classic campaign--two or three pieces of literature, door-knocking, and lots of signs. I gather he is the designated candidate for those strategic voters (i.e. teachers) who simply want to dump the tory government. I would like to have heard more from the NDP but I suspect they've given up. This is a two way race but I think Peterson has got it in the bag.
	01/10/03	Richard G. Email: richard4019@hotmail.com
Mississauga South I believe this time will go Liberal. In 1987 Marg Marland won by about 300 votes but the riding population has changed since then. The riding has even gone Liberal Federally. There is a lot of right wing anger in the riding. and that Margaret’s usefulness is at an end especially if she’s going to be in opposition. She didn’t have any high profile jobs during terms she was elected so what can she do in opposition?
	30/09/03	Tory in Dixie Email: canadien76@hotmail.com
Ms. Marland has withstood alot of challenges and this time will be no different. The riding is very conservative and stuck with the Tories through 1987 and 1990. People will clue into two things - one, IF the Liberals are thought to be ahead, they will want to elect quality Tory MPPs to the legislature to provide effective opposition, and two, Eves' warnings of tax increases under McGuinty will take hold here. All this is wind in Ms. Marland's sails, who already has a solid following in this constituency.
	29/09/03	Gerry Kennedy Email: gerardjkennedy@hotmail.com
I've decided to change this prediction as bizarre as it might sound. There is a 30% shift in 905 and that's enough to make this riding a statistical dead heat. Margaret Marland will not be getting lots of Tory resources. They will be better invested elsewhere nor has she done anything great in this term to suggest she will do better than the average Tory in 905. In addition, Tim Peterson is an excellent Liberal candidate and, should he win, I suspect he might be Peel's representative in cabinet making him the third Peterson brother to be called "The Honourable".
	29/09/03	A. C. Branston Email:
This riding has not elected a provincial Liberal since the 1930s and I don't think that will change. However, I have noticed in areas such as Lorne Park, the heart of PC support in this riding, an abundance of Tim Peterson signs. Also, longtime Liberals are finding a warmer response when knocking on doors or cold calling. Yet, Mississauga South Liberals will need to move 7000 votes from Margaret Marland's column into Tim Peterson's column, which is not an easy task. The desire to be rid of the Tories is not equal to the sentiments felt nationally in 1993. This riding remained Tory even in 1987 at the height of David Peterson’s popularity. The large concentration of high earners makes this area a natural Tory seat and Margaret Marland since 1985 has effectively made this her riding. This combination of a popular longtime Tory MPP and a tradition for electing provincial Conservatives makes electing a Liberal in Mississauga South a Herculean task. For that reason, I’m giving this one to the Tories albeit with a reduced plurality of votes.
	26/09/03	john Email: inkwire@hotmail.com
Miss South has never elected anyone BUT Tories, and a year ago I would have bet that it never would, but: 1) the crudeness in the Eves campaign has offended a lot of life-long Tories, who'll probably stay home on election day as a "protest", 2) Marg Marland has done so little for the riding that she can count on support only from the bluest of the blue areas of Mississauga South (such as Lorne Park and south to the lake), 3)PC party insiders think Marg doesn't bring anything to the Party, and would have prefered if someone else had run in her place, so they're not giving her much support, 4) finally, Marland has never had to fight a close election, and by the time she realizes her seat is at risk it will be too late for her to learn how.
	25/09/03	Gerry Kennedy Email:
I will add my voice to the Tory wave but it is going to be closer than people are saying. True, Margaret Marland is a political institution a la Elsie Wayne in Saint John but TIm Petersen is mounting a strong campaign. 905 is really turning red. Regardless, I really can't see the Tories getting shut out in Mississagua and this is their best chance of a keeper.
	24/09/03	Cosmonaut Email:
Not that this is that relevant, but the Liberal candidate is the third and last of the Peterson brothers to enter politics (David, of course, being the former Premier and Jim being a federal cabinet minister). Although I think the Peterson family might be spending more time in focusing on getting David's sister-in-law Deb Matthews elected in London. No wonder David has no clue what is happening on the dozen or so companies he is a director on.
	10/09/03	Craig Email:
The safest Tory seat in Mississauga, and Marland is not going anywhere. The only real issue could be the environment from Lakeview Generating Station, but the Tories have pledged to convert it by 2005. Some may doubt it though and protest, but this seat has been Tory forever, and will likely stay blue in one of the largest Tory victories. Current prediction: Marland 56%, Peterson 33%, Cole 7%, Murray 3%, others 1%.
	06/09/03	Tory in Dixie Email: ericbucholz@hotmail.com
This is bedrock, bedrock 905 for the Tories. Marland is a veteran MPP, having won numerous elections here, and having survived 1987 and 1990.
	14/05/03	Grizz Email:
Marland is practically an institution in this riding, winning over 60% of the vote last time. No need for a crystal ball to figure out who'll win this one.
	10/04/03	Panther Email:
Margaret Marland is officially running for re-election. Does anyone else smell a landslide victory in the making? Marland is too popular and as one too many elections to lose time time. Tory win here for sure.
	18/03/03	J H Email:
Several people in the community have been approached about running in place of Margaret Marland who seems to want to call it a day. This might not open the riding up to opposition but it makes the Tory campaign work a little harder in a riding that should have been an easier win. If the Tories run a bad campaign it might have a shot at going red.
	27/10/02	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Whether or not Margaret Marland runs again, this remains the safest Tory seat in Mississauga. Any sitting PC who won at all in 1987, an absolute majority in 1990, over 2/3 of the vote in 1995 and over 60% in 1999 has to be counted as eternal. (True, accounting for boundary changes would alter some of those figures a bit--but it's the machine in place that matters.)

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