Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Mississauga East

Last Update:
9:52 PM 30/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
9:52 PM 30/09/2003



Political Profile:

Candidates:
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Liberal Party:
Peter Fonseca
Progressive Conservative:
Carl DeFaria
New Democratic Party:
Michael Hancock
Green Party:
Robert Glowacz

Incumbent:
Carl DeFaria

Federal MP:
Albina Guarnieri

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction
Plurality4317

*CARL DEFARIA
17688 51.58%

SHAN PADDA
13371 38.99%

JAMES KAFIEH
2484 7.24%

PIERRE CHENIER
469 1.37%

GREG MYTRON
282 0.82%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality16 786
Albina Guarnieri
22 158 64.5%
Jainstien Dookie
5 372 15.6%
Riina DeFaria
5 144 15%
Henry Beer
1 451 4.2%

Demographic Profile:
Population
2001108459
1996108843
1991103261

(1996 census)

Age
0-1928560
20-3936105
40-5928475
60+15710

Avg Household Income

$57071
Labour Participation68.70%
Unemployment9.70%

Canadian Citizen

82.71%
Canadian Born48.09%
Ontario Born40.96%
Immigrant50.96%
Visible Minority34.64%
Aboriginal0.24%

First Language
English53590
French1305
Polish7845
Italian4855
Chinese3890
Portuguese3750
Pilipino2905
Vietnamese2445

Residence
House49.57%
Apartment49.81%
Owned55.24%
Rented44.76%
Avg Dwelling Value$196667

Education
University22550
College/Trade School24175
Secondary31550



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30/09/03 Paul
Email:
DeFaria's support from the ethnic community -- other than the Portuguese community -- is limited. After all, this is the politician who published "Sing Along with Carl", a song book aimed at seniors that referred to black people as 'darkies'. DeFaria may have cemented support with his own ethnic group, but as Minister of Citizenship, he alienated virtually every other ethnic organization by his insistence that they move meetings to which he was invited to a location in his riding, that they tailor their meetings to meet his needs (and then on many occasions, cancelled at the last minute), and by making decisions on awarding grants to ethnic organizations based on how much they had catered to him during the previous year. His ego is momumental, and his defeat will equal that.
25/09/03 The Big Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Shouldn't Mississauga East (along with Mississauga west) be considered too close to call? The surge of Liberal support (even in the 905) makes this a horse race for sure. The mayor of Mississauga even seems to be supporting the Liberals. I'm not ready to say a Liberal win here but it isn't a PC win either.
24/09/03 Derek L.
Email:
This was one of the Tory's narrower 905 wins in 1999. We now see the Liberal wave across the province cresting into a 15-20 point lead. A riding like this that only went Tory by about 10 points last time is GONE!
20/09/03 Gerry Kennedy
Email:
Surprise! A) Fonseca is a good candidate. Though he has no political experience, name recognition is what counts here and he can make up some of the gap with DeFaria. B) While it is true that DeFaria is in a much more high profile position than '99, one must also remember that the Tories are going to lose a great deal of seats and, let's be frank, he still is not as high profile as City of Toronto MPPs David Young and Morley Kells. C) The Liberals are going to make breakthroughs in 905. They have to and this is one of the closer seats. D) While DeFaria is a nice guy and a decent MPP, he has nothing nothing incredible in cabinet.
10/09/03 Craig
Email:
A 905 riding bordering Toronto, it is certainly going to be a swing riding since it is comparable to an Etobicoke riding (where there are 3 exciting races) in terms of demographics and development. I feel that both the Tories and Liberals are going to end in a virtual dead heat here, this is certainly the best chance for a Liberal pickup in the western 905 (except for the highly marginal Bramalea-Gore-Malton-Springdale) and it will be exciting. The NDP could play spoiler in swinging the votes around though. Current prediction: DeFaria 43%, Fonseca 43%, Hancock 10%, Glowacz 2%, others 2%.
15/02/03
Email:
The Liberal Candidate, nominated on Decemeber 5th/02, is Peter Fonseca. Yes, he was Canada's top Oylympic marathoner (Atlanta Games),who may just run this riding right down to Queen's Park for the Liberals! DeFaria won't be able to catch this energetic organizer, on the run.
13/11/02 Andrew Cox
Email:
1) A bold prediction, but this is another 905 seat that looks set to move. 2) Carl De Faria is not much of a player in the riding. He basically got in on Harris' coattails. 2) A riding where immigrants make up the majority, De Faria needs to keep a multitude of ethnic interests happy to stay afloat. In contrast, the opposition can play off perceptions of favouratism in government to wedge themselves between the PCs and ethnic groups. 3) De Faria's ministry portfolio means he is out of his riding more than he's in it. Another example of a promotion endangering a weak MPP. 4) This area is the most "Toronto" of the Western 905. The high population turn-over means wide vote swings are likely. 5) Basically, the seat will go with the government.
09/11/02 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Despite finally earning himself a small cabinet post, DeFaria's no caucus giant and owes his electoral success more to the 905 tide--keep in mind, if you want to scratch the DeFaria surface, that his wife offered herself federally as Joe Clark's Mississauga East cannon fodder in 2000. The mitigating provincial Tory factor: this is the kind of flat-out 60s70s middle-class suburbia that propelled Bill Davis to victory as much as Mike Harris. So if 905's a wall of PC strength again, ME will follow suit...



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