Lambton-Kent-Middlesex

Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Last Update:
9:39 PM 30/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
9:39 PM 30/09/2003

Political Profile:

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)

Liberal Party:
Maria Van Bommel

Progressive Conservative:
Marcel Beaubien

New Democratic Party:
Joyce Joliffe

Green Party:
Tim Van Bodegom

Incumbent:

Marcel Beaubien

Federal MP:

Rose-Marie Ur

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

Plurality 896

*MARCEL BEAUBIEN

19561 45%

LARRY O'NEILL

18665 42.94%

JIM LEE

4170 9.59%

WAYNE H. FORBES

1076 2.48%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction

Plurality 7 822

Rose-Marie Ur

21 124 49%

Ron Young

13 302 30.8%

John Phair

5 918 13.7%

Joyce Jolliffe

1 871 4.3%

Demographic Profile:

Population

2001 98878

1996 98542

1991 96182

(1996 census)
Age

0-19 29375

20-39 26295

40-59 24275

60+ 18610

Avg Household Income
$54327

Labour Participation 66.80%

Unemployment 7.50%

Canadian Citizen
97.88%

Canadian Born 89.19%

Ontario Born 84.93%

Immigrant 10.65%

Visible Minority 1.63%

Aboriginal 2.34%

First Language

English 86805

French 1710

Dutch 2730

Residence

House 89.85%

Apartment 8.95%

Owned 78.55%

Rented 21.45%

Avg Dwelling Value $123082

Education

University 8675

College/Trade School 23755

Secondary 33615

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	30/09/03	Lucky 100 Email:
In a close election, the candidate with the better campaign team usually wins. For the life of me I can't understand why the Van Bommel campaign has been so disorganized. They don't seem to have a lot of volunteers working for her either. In stark contrast the Beaubien campaign has been better since day one of the campaign. They have more people involved in the operation than the Liberals do. With every vote counting on election day, the Beaubien campaign looks more like the one who will get out the vote and win here.
	30/09/03	Woopie Email:
Let's face direct facts here. Beaubien made his gain last election in the Strathroy area, with the Liberal candidate campaigning from the Wallaceburg area, and not well known to the Strathroy voters. This is the area where Maria Van Bommel lives and is most well known. Maria has served her community extremely well, serving on the hospital board, on council and in other governmental capacities. She KNOWS what the present government has not done to the rural communities and she is getting her message out. In all recent community debates Mr. Beaubien has left immediately after the session so he doesn't have to answer questions and be held accountable. He even put out a communication in Wallaceburg noting the gun registry and same sex marriage - Federal issues. He has not shown up for any talks about the Sarnia chemical spill and its effects to Wallaceburg and people here are fully fed up with him and his party. This however is the present tory practice. This riding should be classified as LIBERAL as Marcel is going to retire by the hand of voters within this riding on Thursday.
	29/09/03	Gerry Kennedy Email: gerardjkennedy@hotmail.com
I'm honestly a bit surprised this hasn't been called yet. Beaubien squeaked a victory last time and there is nothing to suggest that this riding is like Renfrew-Nipissing-Prembroke, Erie-Lincoln or Willowdale and local issues/candidates will be able to buck the provincial trend. I know the Tories are doing better in rural areas but there are also the Perth-Middlesexes/Bruce-Grey-Owen Sounds and Oxfords of the world so I really can't see this one surviving the red wave.
	27/09/03	JW Bennett Email: jbennett@execulink.com
Liberal Gain. Beaubien's margin of victory in 1999 was less than 900 votes at a time when the Tories were winning across the province. They are now facing a deficit of between 15 and 20 points in all polls, including one conducted by the London Free Press of this area. Beaubien will not be able to survive a surging Liberal tide.
	26/09/03	Darcy Email: darcyhiggins@canada.com
Two per cent is easy to make up, since the Tories overall have dropped 13% so far since the last election. Marcel is not that impressive but may have some support. Fairly easy lib win.
	26/09/03	Winger Email:
"In with the government and out with the government" is very realistic as to how our MPPs get elected. Well guess what Dalton and the Liberals will be forming the next government so Marcel will be gone. Marcel's last win here was narrow and that was with a PC government being elected this time a liberal government win will tip it in favour of Maria. Dalton has visited this riding many times and as recently as Sept 10th in Wallaceburg while Ernie and Howard are no where to be found. This riding goes liberal but it will not be a landslide.
	25/09/03	Bubba Email: jordanbuddy2002@yahoo.ca
Chocolate Chip Cookie's been baking too long. At all the debates, Van Bommel says she's opposed to same-sex marriage, even though MPPs will never vote on it; and Eves had no problem with it last year. The Tories seem to be grasping at straws, trying to avoid the local health care crisis, agriculture and environment, and highlight hot-button wedge issues. If the rural folks think they're better off than in 95, they'll vote Tory. But if not, I think they'll vote Liberal. It's going down to the wire, though.
	25/09/03	Chocolate Chip Cookie Email:
Marcel Beaubien will hold on in this riding because nowhere in Ontario is the same sex issue more important to voters. Van Bommel and her party are in favour of same sex marriages and it's destroyed any chances that the Liberals had to win this seat. Beaubien will win by 1000 votes.
	23/09/03	Mike Email:
I am involved with the Ontario Federation of Agriculture. For anyone to imply or say that OFA has endorsed any candidate for election is irresponsible on their end without checking the facts. The OFA has never endorsed anyone as it would compromise their position as a representative of Ontario's farmers. OFA works with all parties, irregardless of whoever is in power. To endorse any one party or candidate places farmers at great peril and OFA would not be taken seriously by any party. I would hope in the future that all people would verify all facts before making any allegations. Sure Maria Van Bommel is a Field Services Representative of OFA, but I would like to point out that she is indeed a hard working individual and would make an excellent MPP. Not once have I ever heard of anyone having anything good to say about Beaubien in the last 8.5 years.
	22/09/03	Andrew Cox Email: andrewcox101@hotmail.com
Liberal Gain. Reason: The latest survey shows voters in the Southwest are the most dissatisfied in the province with the PCs. A regional survey shows the Liberals 10% ahead, 48% to 38% for the PCs and 14% for the NDP. Undecideds are low at just 15%, leaving little room for growth. There is no interest in issues like banning teacher's strikes, gun control or immigration. People just want better health care and education. As the Chatham paper put it "Voters are looking for change." Combine that will Beaubien's weak majority last time, and we are looking at an almost sure-fire Liberal pick up here.
	21/09/03	Christopher J. Currie Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
During the 2000 Federal election, numerous CA supporters wrote to the Election Prediction forum, telling us they were CERTAIN that L-K-M would be one of the Alliance's Ontario pickups. The riding had a strong rural, social-conservative base, after all, and would be receptive to the message of the Day team. In the event, the Liberals won by almost 20%. Marcel Beaubien only won this seat by 2% last time. If it looks like the Liberals are going to form government, he will almost certainly lose. The fact that Helen Johns appears to be in trouble certainly won't help him.
	20/09/03	lrs Email:
With PCS having small plurality last time and polls showing massive swing to Liberals-also local LibMP voted to maintain traditional marriage on same sex issue-should keep that issue from rising- should be Liberal gain- if not - this would be a sign that Liberals not doing well in rural ridings
	20/09/03	Harold the Barrell Email:
If visits by the party leader determined who won each riding, then there wouldn't be any other part to the campaign. In a riding like this one, the Tories have managed to get their issues front and centre. Same sex marriage is the biggest issue in the riding with gun control laws coming a close second. These issues have left Van Bommel in a difficult situation as she has to defend the stand of her party against popular public opinion. There isn't a church in this riding that won't be talking about the same sex issue this Sunday and next Sunday. In a heavy church going riding, these people will be one issue voters and this will be the difference. Marcel is going to win by a greater amount than he did in 1999.
	18/09/03	Bubba Email: jordanbuddy2002@yahoo.ca
LKM will be an interesting riding; Beaubien won Strathroy last time about 2-1 over the Liberal. But this time, Van Bommel is a hometown girl, and chair of the local hospital board. Call Strathroy even, or leaning Lib. Lambton was about even in 99, with Beaubien even losing his home town of Petrolia; the Kent portion went Liberal. If there's a mood for change, look for Van Bommel to win. Doctor shortages are the worst in Ontario in Lambton and Kent Counties. Van Bommel is at all the fairs, and in the parades, while Beaubien is conspicuously absent. Ernie Eves visited Strathroy on the eve of the election, then was in Petrolia 2 days in, a sure sign Beaubien is in trouble. At last count, McGuinty's been in this riding 12 times since 1999, a sure sign of a potential Liberal win.
	14/09/03	Master P Email:
This is a tough one. Some of the other submitters have it wrong about the farm vote. The OFA (federation of agriculture) doesn't endorse any candidates. I'm sure they don't care who wins. Unfortunately for Maria, she's got her federal cousins to worry about with the farm vote. The federal APF (Agricultural Policy Framework) is not liked by Ontario farmers. VanBommell has come out against it, with Beaubein piling on. Beaubein is a bit lucky about that, because Helen Johns, the agriculture minister is very popular with Ontario farmers. So far she has refused to sign the APF implementation agreement which has been supported by Ontario farm groups. Beaubein has harangued VanBommell on CHOK radio regarding this. To VanBommell's credit she has said the federal Liberals are "blackmailing" Ontario farmers. So she knows local agricultural issues well. Beaubien comes across as arrogant. He may not be, I don't know. But he surely comes across that way. I wouldn't want a wiff of that is I was a politician. It may be enough to tip the balance toward VanBommell. This riding is so big, little problems like that shouldn't be part of anybody's campaign equation. Joyce Joliffe and the NDP seem to be no where. That's too bad because former NDP MPP Randy Hope represented part of this riding before and he was very effective. I say this even though I've not been approached by any of the candidates in the riding. That's pretty normal for this riding. With huge geographic distances to cover, nobody ever knocks on every door. I tend to think Beaubien is in trouble here. The western part of the riding is historically Liberal. It almost did him in last time. On the other hand, VanBommell is not well known. The next few weeks should tell.
	08/09/03	WD Email:
I submit to you that despite the gains made by the Tories in the most recent polls, the problem they are going to face in the election is getting their vote out. This is the impression of on-the-ground Tory organizers in a lot of rural ridings (though not all) and was confirmed by the latest poll, which shows that Tory support is wide, but soft - meaning they're not going to vote unless the campaign team can get them to come out. The margins are very slim, and ridings like LKM are going down to the wire. All that said, I am changing my call. Same sex marriage is going to be the wedge issue in this riding and Van Bommel is on the wrong side of the tracks. My sources (see above) tell me they're getting lots of calls from pissed-off farmers and townsfolk on this issue.
	/09/03	Kippers for Breakfast Email:
Marcel Beaubien is as safe as houses in his riding. Van Bommel decided to run for the Liberals because she thought she could secure the edorsement from the Federation of Agriculture. Instead the Fed is backing Beaubien. This left Van Bommel without any money or workers. This is why she's had almost no campaign going all year and why she won't be running much of one now that the election is on. Beaubien has the farm vote and he has the church vote thanks to the same sex issue. Van Bommel has no base at all and cannot beat Beaubien.
	04/09/03	Political Hack Email:
Unlike most of us who look at the chances of each candidate in a riding, WD is nothing but a Liberal shill who has little information on most ridings. This election is going to be a tale of two Ontario's. Urban Ontario, where the Liberals are going to take seats from the Tories and rural Ontario, where the Tories are going to hold their seats. As far as this riding goes, the Liberals had a much better candidate in Larry O'Neill last time. Maria Van Bommel has had a lot of trouble dealing with big issues in rural Ontario like same sex marriage, private schools and the federal gun laws. These issues have turned off the support Maria was counting on from the Dutch farmers who are against same sex marriage, pro private schools and against the gun law. Without the base she was counting on, Maria has no chance against Marcel. This riding will still belong to the Tories after October 2.
	02/09/03	Juan Banger Email:
Beaubien has it in the bag. He's got the french vote from Pain Court, Grande Pointe, etc...
	26/08/03	WD Email:
Maria Van Bommel is the kind of candidate that could make a breakthrough here. The Dutch farming constituency is a pretty powerful PC voting block in this riding (they not only support the party in polls, but actually show up to vote), but having one of their own (and a popular one, I might add) running as a Liberal might split that base of support. This riding barely went to the Tories in 1999 -- they're gonna lose it this time out.
	14/04/03	THE GAMBLER Email:
The Gambler is putting his money on Marcel Beaubien to win Lambton-Kent-Middlesex. PC beaubien packs a powerful one-two punch that will be too much for LIB Van Bommel to handle. Marcel will lead with the farmers and them throw the hunters for the win by KO. This one is no contest. Sell your car if you have to but put some money on Beaubien to win.
	26/03/03	RWA Email:
It seems strange to those who pay attention, but much of the public doesn't differentiate between federal and provincial wings of a party. And the gun registry issue is trouble for provincial Liberals. I know that at an event in a small town in Perth Middlesex recently, Steve Peters had several people walking up to him complaining about it. A bad factor for the Liberals in such an area, with a close vote expected.
	05/03/03	El Predicto Email:
Andrew Cox should know that polls can give you any answer you want if you look long enough at the numbers. The last two polls that have been released from Ipsos-Reid and Environics also showed Liberal support in South West Ontario on the decline. Is that as important as the rural support number that Andrew quoted? Who really knows. I do know enough about this riding to predict that the Tories will hold on due to the reasons I've mentioned before.
	03/03/03	Andrew Cox Email:
Regarding the contention of Mr. "El Predicto" that show the Liberals "not breaking through in small-town Ontario." I would point to you the latest Ipsos-Reid survey. There, the Liberals (46%) lead the Conservatives (40%) in rural Ontario. If anything, the latest poll would make me wary to venture too much in the Southwest, especially in this riding, as the survey shows a close race in this pivitol region.
	14/02/03	El Predicto Email:
Liberal candidate, Maria Van Bommel was supposed to get huge support from her friends at the Federation of Agriculture. This didn't happen as the Fed is supporting the Tory Beaubein. This leaves Van Bommel with no campaign team. The federal liberal gun registry hurst Van Bommel in this riding too. Add to that the last two province wide polls which show Liberal support in southwest Ontario dropping as the grits aren't breaking through in small town Ontario and this riding remains the same this time out. Mark this one down for the Tories.
	21/01/03	Andrew Cox Email:
Too close to call. Reasons: 1) Margin of victory was razor thin last time. Little reason to think the fine people of LKM are any more decided today than they were four years ago. 2) Grit Maria Van Bommell is a big improvement over Larry O'Neill. A former provincial director of the OFA, she has credibility with farm groups. A councilor in Middlesex, she has profile and political experience. She's a poultry farmer near Strathroy, giving her credibility both with small business and farmers. She is currently the chair of the Strathroy Middlesex General Hospital Board, so she has credibility on health care and more local profile. Not good news for Marcel. 3) The Ipperwash stuff doesn't hurt the PCs locally, but it will keep Eves away from the riding during the writ. Being confronted by the George family is one of the Eves campaign's worst nightmares. That means the loss of a good news cover story during the writ. 4) Walkerton will have echoes here, where source to ta! p protection of water is a big deal. Think about how many people around here drink from either private wells or small municipal waterworks. 5) Beaubien is trying to run on an anti-gun control slate. That will help him, especially in light of the federal Liberals cost explosions. 6) The spending taps will be open early in this riding, with no cheque too small for Beaubien to turn into a photo op. Every local club is about to get the 2,000 grant they asked for. 7) The private school tax credit will help Beaubein with the riding's substantial Dutch Christian population, but it could turn off more secular voters. Conclusion: Could go either way.
	19/01/03	M.S. Email:
This is a tight one. Both parties will likely pay a lot of attention to this riding during the campaign. It will be fought on the ground, and Van Bommel certainly is a fighter. This is one of those ridings though that won't be decided until the very last moment.
	12/11/02	mooshoe Email:
Maria Van Bommel will take this riding easily for the Grits. Beaubien has been conspicuously absent from the House, plus farmers are now pissed at the Eves gov't over Hydro, etc.
	31/10/02	Darcy Email: darcy.higgins@st-clair.net
I would suggest that it it too close to call and to soon to make this prediction. Marcle hasn't really treated his constituents that well and the Liberal candidate was very close last time. Watch out especially if Environment Voters decides to take on this riding; The vote could switch by 4%.
	30/10/02	Brad Nicpon Email: bwnicpon@uwo.ca
I would like to preface this submission by saying that I think it is way too early to make any kind of accurate predictions for any riding in Ontario. We do not know when the election is going to be held, who the candidates are going to be, nor do we have a good understanding of the key campaign issues. Nonetheless, LKM is my home riding, so I just wanted to start things off by suggesting that if the election were held today, Marcel Beaubien would retain his seat. Though I am at home less than I used to be, my perception of the political landscape of LKM (at least the easterly portions) is that it is generally conducive to a PC re-election. I'm sure I'll be defending this statement later with further details, but, for now; Let the games begin!
	28/10/02	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Marcel Beaubien managed to pull off a 2-point victory in 1999; it helped (especially in hitherto Liberal Strathroy) that there was no CHP candidate running. But as an issue, Ipperwash refuses to go away. Therefore, it's an indelible 1999 bullseye painted upon Beaubien. On the other hand, a vigorous 1999 NDP effort bolsters vote-split hopes...

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