Kingston and the Islands

Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Last Update:
5:03 PM 07/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
30 October 2002

Political Profile:

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)

Liberal Party:
John Gerretsen

Progressive Conservative:
Hans Westenberg

New Democratic Party:
Janet Collins

Green Party:
Eric Walton

Incumbent:

John Gerretsen

Federal MP:

Hon. Peter Milliken

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

Plurality 11868

*JOHN GERRETSEN

26355 54.7%

BOB PICKERING

14487 30.07%

BETH PATER

5436 11.28%

CHRIS WALKER

1174 2.44%

CHRIS K. BENETEAU

546 1.13%

GERARD MORRIS

182 0.38%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction

Plurality 17 235

Peter Milliken

26 457 51.7%

Blair MacLean

9 222 18%

Kevin Goligher

7 904 15.4%

Gary Wilson

4 951 9.7%

Demographic Profile:

Population

2001 112872

1996 111411

1991 106780

(1996 census)
Age

0-19 27560

20-39 37005

40-59 26675

60+ 20160

Avg Household Income
$57533

Labour Participation 64.80%

Unemployment 10.10%

Canadian Citizen
96.32%

Canadian Born 84.98%

Ontario Born 69.11%

Immigrant 14.34%

Visible Minority 5.53%

Aboriginal 0.96%

First Language

English 93510

French 3625

Residence

House 63.70%

Apartment 35.69%

Owned 55.87%

Rented 44.13%

Avg Dwelling Value $154399

Education

University 27025

College/Trade School 25675

Secondary 29530

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	01/10/03	AR Email:
On the topic of the Queen's voting issue, I think it is safe to say that of the 16000 potential student voters, many of whom do not have a firm base in the Kingston area or at least long-standing knowledge of Kingston's political history, we will see a definite trend towards the Liberal side. Many of the student voters will not be voting particularly for the area's nominees (ie: John Gerretsen, Hans Westenberg, etc.) but more so for the party and party leader that suits them best. This said, knowing how unpopular Ernie Eves and the Conservatives are in the education sector, and the un-involvement of the NDPs in the broader provincial scale, you will find a lot of students voting Liberal for Dalton McGuinty.
	28/09/03	Christopher J. Currie Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
I find it almost inconceivable that someone could predict a Tory win here. Even if Westenberg gets 40% -- which he won't -- this won't be enough to win. John Gerretsen is extremely popular in this city, and should manage a Milliken-esque majority on Thursday. The NDP, contrary to what JE says, is weak in Kingston; in 2000, the federal candidate came close to falling behind the Greens, for heaven's sake. I grant that the Tories, NDP and Greens have all managed to set up a fair number of signs on public property areas (and even the FCP seems to have set up a hand-painted sign near the highway), but this really, really won't matter when the numbers are counted.
	27/09/03	JE Email:
A Tory win here certainly is possible. Hans Westenberg is very well known throughout the riding, having served as a Reeve, councillor and president of several clubs within the area. NDP support here is also quite strong, almost rivaling the number of Gerretson signs. Westenberg is putting in a strong performance and if his supporters show as well as NDP and Green supporters, this could be a close one. A Westenberg win with less than 40% of the votes cast is possible.
	25/09/03	RL Email:
University towns are hard spots for Tories. The Liberals shouldn't have a problem. They seem to have the organization to keep this one in their hands. I'll take the Liberals.
	05/09/03	Chris Ball Email: 0cb14@qlink.queensu.ca
It seems like the other Queen's students posting on this site don't realize just how Liberal this city is. Sure, there will be vote splitting, but the reason the Greens and NDP will pick up some of the left-wing votes is because the PCs don't have a chance. Total blowout for the Liberals. 55% Liberal, 25% PC, 12% NDP, 8% Green.
	20/05/03	WD Email:
Gerretsen's popularity here works to the NDP/Green benefit. No need to worry about vote splitting the anti-tory vote when the incumbent is going to crush the blue guy like a bug. That frees strategic voters to vote their conscience. Millburn is a smart and credible candidate. This is one of several ridings where the Greens will beat the NDP, mostly by pulling support from the Liberals and Torys. Prediction: Liberals: 55% PCs 20% Greens 15% NDP 10%
	16/05/03	Craig Email:
Not even close! The Liberals will solidify the huge majority from 1999 with Tory attrition (their vote will drop significantly). The NDP base, while vocal, is too small here to make it a factor. It will be one of the largest Liberal majorities in Ontario. Predicted results: LIB 64%, NDP 17%, PC 16%, Green 2%.
	12/05/03	J.S. Email: unclejoesayshello@yahoo.co.uk
This will not even be close. Gerretsen has a good majority, and with the seemingly inevitable swing to the Grits, will turn it into a rock solid one. If he survived 1995, he can survive anything.
	12/05/03	Grizz Email:
Oh come now people, a PC win here? We have a Liberal incumbant who is popular. Yes the NDP may have stolen votes from the Liberals in this early stage of the election, but lets have a reality check. If it's neck and neck between the Liberals and the PC's overall across the provence, and a huge chunk of the population want a change, then when they get into the voting booth they are not going to squander their vote on the NDP, but will vote Liberal to ensure that the popular incumbant stays and that a change in government occurs. Look at the recent Quebec election. People wanted a change and when it looked close between the PQ and the Liberals, people that would have voted ADQ went en masse to the Liberals...we all know the result of that.
	11/05/03	Scott "the truth" Email:
Enough of these crazy submissions saying the Conservatives will pick up this seat!! It's pretty clear now that the Liberals will sweep much of Ontario and will not lose any of their current seats. Kingston and the Islands will send John back again. Most Ontarians want a change of government. People usually get tired of a government after 2 terms. Look what happened just recently in Quebec.
	07/05/03	Aaron Email:
The PC candidate, Dr. Hans Westenberg, is very well known in the riding. He's been a visibly active member of the community all his life and is a former town Reeve. Both the NDP and the Green Party have nominated very strong candidates and that could cost the Liberals quite a bit of support allowing for a PC victory. Should be interesting to see what happens.
	04/05/03	Bryan G. Cowell Email: 0bgc@qlink.queensu.ca
I agree with Kasra, though I doubt the NDP will be able to edge out the Liberals for second. The NDP will take enough left-leaning votes away with their strong candidate from the Liberals to help the Conservative pull up the middle. Hans is a decent candidate, as anyone who was at the all-candidates debate on Queen's campus can atest. This will be close, but the Conservatives will win this in a close race.
	22/04/03	Kaz Nejatian Email: kaz@nejatian.com
If I had to pick one riding that would be a Tory come from the behind upset win, it would be this. I have gone from one side of the riding to the other and it seems that the Liberals have lost a great deal of support to the NDP. This one is going to be a close split, but I think the Tory candidate can win it with about 35% of the vote. The NDP has done a good job drawing the left from Queen's and that alone is worth about 5000 votes. Ernie Eves resonates well with the people of K&I who are traditional moderate tories. Afterall this is the land of Flora McDonald and Hugh Segal. I wouldn't be surprised if the final results were Tory First, NDP second, and Liberal third.
	19/03/03	Sarah Email:
Janet Collins has a strong base of support and a number of very hardworking and passionate people, especially young people, working on her campaign. Her support comes from her years of involvement in the community, working on issues ranging from poverty, to breast cancer, to sanctions on iraq, to university tuition. These are issues that really matter to people in Kingston and that affect people in their daily lives. She is not running for symbolic reasons; she is running to win. I believe that her sincere commitment to this town and people living here shows in all of her actions and this does make a big difference in the way people will vote. Kingston needs a big change in its political and social climate and Janet is hands down the only person capable of bringing about that change. I'm predicting that tides will turn in favour of the NDP.
	16/03/03	AL Email:
Former Mayor and two term MPP John Gerretsen should be a shoe-in.
	26/02/03	Scott Email:
This riding will go Liberal unless there is a very major Conservative tide. Why would voters want to change to Conservative really??!!
	18/02/03	Jordan Bell Email: jordanbell@cogeco.ca
I have read several posts that say John Gerretsen is a popular MPP. He is not particularly well known, and has not made a lot of visible accomplishments for the riding. He has a mixed voting record, and actually voted with the Tories in key areas like increasing hydro prices by privitization. He then went back on the issue. He actually openly misrepresented his party policy to a public meeting (there's a word that starts with l that I can't use here), and doesn't have much in the way of a successful track record. The NDP won here in 1990, and with the new NDP candidate they can win a campaign based on crucially important issues.
	16/02/03	B. G. C. Email: 0bgc@qlink.queensu.ca
The fact that the NDP has nominated a strong candidate basically assures this seat will go PC from the Left-wing vote split between the Liberals and the NDP. The Conservatives have nominated a strong candidate, who has done wonders recruiting local medical students from Queen's to his campaign. Combine that with the fact that the Queen's PC Campus clubs (both Federal and Provincial) are fully behind the candidate means a lot of tiny-tories doing a lot of grunt work on the ground to put the PC party over the top here. Gerretsen is in some difficulties, Tory steal.
	13/02/03	JD Email:
I did see the Howard Hampton bus role into Kingston the other day and there was an impressive media piece on CKWS of him shooting pucks through a bull's eye- he's not bad! Janet Collins visited my union and I will be voting for her because she is a 'real' person without a personal agenda. She has been around fighting for social justice for years and really knows about the town and what it needs.
	21/01/03	D Email:
The new Canadidate Janet Collins shows an excellent understanding of the issues most important to Kingston area voters!
	16/01/03	Ivan Email:
So then (in response to the previous post)...the economic woes of Kingston are the fault of a single MPP (an opposition one at that) and not the policies of the government? Interesting.The Liberal party is strong in Kingston, and Gerretsen is well liked personally. I spent a number of years in Kingston and have always seen him in the community.Easy Liberal Hold.
	26/12/02	Email:
I think the people of Kingston are starting to realize that changes must be made if they ever want the city to grow and prosper. The only jobs that the city has seen come there way are in the form of call centres which tend to locate in communities that have high unemployment and a reasonably skilled labour force - something not to be too proud of. What can Gerretsen say he has done for the people of Kingston? Yes, Kingston municipal council has been a major stumbling block (very anti-development), but Gerretsen has been non-existant in the media. With a local manufacturer looking at pulling out of the city (Belden), it was a PC MPP that headed down (or is heading down) with the former union rep (he was laid off) to try and convince the company to stay. Where was Gerretsen in all of this? I hope, especially for those who wish to stay in Kingston after graduating from university/college, that Kingston seriously considers what it wants for a future and votes in a PC MPP.
	07/12/02	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Gerretsen's mandate is as tough and rugged as Kingston limestone--and all because he was the rare elected Liberal in the PC year of 1995. Besides, the local PC profile is a little schizoid; on the one hand, it's the heartland of "Flora MacDonald" Red Toryism, but there's also a biting Reform/Alliance streak emanating from young Queens U politicos as well as the washover from Runciman/Scott Reid Eastern Ontario right-populism. In fact, in this campus and civil service town, NDP campaigns have lately been spirited if (except in 1990) not electorally lucrative. For sure, though; if it's a McGuinty government, Gerretsen's due for a big cabinet post...
	28/10/02	B. G. C. Email:
There's no doubt about it, Gerretsen is a popular MPP. But Tories in K and I are strong and motivated to defeat the Liberals this time around. They have a good chance, if they nominate the right candidate. It will be close, there's no doubt, but the Tories can give the Grits a run in Kingston.

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