Kenora-Rainy River

Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Kenora-Rainy River

Last Update:
3:41 PM 26/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
22 October 2002

Political Profile:

Candidates:
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Liberal Party:
Geoff McClain

Progressive Conservative:
Cathe Hoszowski

New Democratic Party:
Howard Hampton

Green Party:

Incumbent:

Howard Hampton

Federal MP:

Hon. Robert Nault

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

Plurality 3060

*HOWARD HAMPTON

14269 44.74%

*FRANK MICLASH

11209 35.14%

LYNN BEYAK

5483 17.19%

RICHARD R. BRUYERE

934 2.93%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction

Plurality 5 291

Bob Nault

14 416 45.2%

Ed Prefontaine

9 125 28.6%

Susan Barclay

6 868 21.5%

Brian Barrett

1 476 4.6%

Demographic Profile:

Population

2001 78758

1996 79550

1991 76320

(1996 census)
Age

0-19 25950

20-39 23725

40-59 18040

60+ 11840

Avg Household Income
$54027

Labour Participation 66.00%

Unemployment 11.30%

Canadian Citizen
98.15%

Canadian Born 93.39%

Ontario Born 74.97%

Immigrant 6.34%

Visible Minority 0.74%

Aboriginal 25.59%

First Language

English 61385

French 1805

Ojibway 5660

Residence

House 84.17%

Apartment 11.14%

Owned 74.49%

Rented 25.51%

Avg Dwelling Value $114883

Education

University 8640

College/Trade School 16210

Secondary 25500

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	25/09/03	Christopher J. Currie Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
As a follow-up to my SSM post -- I've received a report from a northern contact which suggests the NDP are concerned about Hampton's own seat. I don't actually believe this, myself, but if there's a major upset around Fort Frances next week ... well, you read it here first.
	24/09/03	A.E Email: alnu_cephmiar@yahoo.co.uk
This riding is represented by NDP leader, Howard Hampton, and is a northern seat with a strong first nation vote and also has a lot of mining communities. This indicates considerable strength for the NDP. They should be able to win here, Hampton or no Hampton. The Liberals held the Kenora part of the riding for quite a while, but this seems to have been mostly a personal vote for ex-MPP Frank Miclash. The Tories have ruined the already struggling economy of Northern Ontario, and they will be luckey to climb over the 15% deposit. All in all, local boy come good, Hampton should hold his seat.
	19/09/03	Derek Email:
Howard Hampton is well on his way to a solid victory on his home turf. The larger picture however is not as pretty. Yes, Hampton has run a clean, no-mud campaign, and seems to be an all-around good guy. With this being said however, he cannot escape the ghost of Bob Rae. This is a political party that completely stabbed its diehard supporters in the back with the social contract. Due to the Bob Rae broken promises, and backstabbing, the NDP will have real trouble getting over the 12% popularity ratings. Hampton was there for the Rae years, and because of this, the party will pay the price. To the average Ontario voter, mentioning Bob Rae's name is like speaking of Brian Mulroney. The response is almost always negative.
	08/09/03	Crazy Jer Email: jeremy_dutton@hotmail.com
Howard's strong performance in this election so far makes me extremely hesitant to say he'll loose his seat. However the endorsement by leo bernier is going to make a huge difference for the PC candidate. If there was a stronger liberal, than Howie would be in definite trouble, but it would be because it would allow Cathe to come up the middle. Having said that, it must be remembered is that there is already a large conservative vote in this riding, (federally at least) with the Alliance taking nearly 30% in 1993. Add the small 5% from the federal tories who can stomach this candidate (v.s lynn beyak) and those who are simply sick of being left out of the government for 10 plus years now (Kenora district was a seperate riding during the Rae era), and we might just see a Tory upset in Kenora-Rainy River.
	06/09/03	Tory in Dixie Email: ericbucholz@hotmail.com
In line with my prediction that all three leaders keep their seats, Mr. Hampton should be returned in his northern Ontario riding. Mr. Hampton has hung on to his seat for a long time, withstanding strong Liberal and Tory challenges alike. I would not be surprised if he increased his majority, as I believe that the NDP is poised to make gains in this election.
	17/07/03	J.S Email: jarrow_crusade1936@hotmail.com
Howie won by 19% in 1999 against the incumbent of the Kenora part of the riding for 12 years(and who even survived 1990), Miclash. Bearing in mind that possibly a majority of Miclash's voters voted, not for the Liberals, but for Miclash... They won't stay with the Liberals and they certainly won't vote for the Tories. They will either vote for Howie, or stay at home. Either way his majority will go up. Howie is probably the only leader that is safe, as both the Grits and the Tories are going to whack 7 kinds of s*** out of their respective leaders.
	11/06/03	Craig Email:
Believe it or not, Howard Hampton is the safest of the three party leaders since I think the Tories are going to be nasty with Dalton bashing. This will be a pretty quiet but lopsided race, with no Liberal incumbent to worry about, better known throughout even beyond his home turf, and the lack of a Tory vote here. He shouldn't take too much heat in the election knowing the NDP are not likely going to form government (although could be Official Opposition against a huge Liberal majority), so he will be able to spend time at home as well. Predicted results: NDP 57%, LIB 27%, PC 11%, Green 3%.
	28/05/03	Jay Bird Email:
Hampton won comfortably last time against an incumbent and BACK THEN had to canvas new voters who didn't know him, stretched over an area larger that a lot of European countries. He kicked Miclash's ass. NOW that he's been reporesenting the area for four years and the voters know him and like him and DON't KNOW his opponent, I predict a big easy win.
	05/05/03	Scott "the truth" Email:
Howie will probably win unless the Liberals become an even bigger force this June. The previous submission is a complete joke. It make absolutely no sense! Nice try but the PCs are finished...
	29/04/03	O.D. Email:
The Conservative crash that happened in 99 due to some wildly unpopular PC policies will not happen again in 03. The riding, although thought to be owned by the NDP leader, is not. In 95 in the Rainy River riding Hampton won by only a handful of votes. The Kenora folks do remember the better days of Bernier and the North his PC’s built. Mr. Bernier has come out with a strong endorsement for the new PC candidate, an endorsement that has not been available to less moderate PC candidates in the riding in the past. The Liberal may have to choose his priority in the fall and run a municipal campaign in Ear Falls as he is both the Mayor and paid Economic Development Officer for his town. With First Nations angry at Federal Liberals over the Indian Act and Daltons endorsement of the gun registry, the planets are all lined up to create a surprise PC victory.
	25/04/03	Grizz Email:
When ever the leader of a party is in a tight race, that party will pull out all of the stops to get him/her elected. I can name case after case where this is true and even though the Ontario NDPs are low in the polls it will happen here. I do not see any surprises in Howard Hampton winning his riding.
	22/04/03	Scott Email:
This could end up being close with the Liberal candidate but Mr. Hampton will win. Although I usually vote Liberal, Hampton is a strong leader and very well liked by First Nations and Aboriginals. The PCs don't stand a chance!!! I can't believe somebody thinks they do.
	14/04/03	Scotty Email:
April 5 EKOS poll results. Liberals 53, Tories 34, NDP 11. Howie Hampton now leads a dead party. His political career is finished. That means Geoff McClain will be the next MPP for this riding.
	09/04/03	Mary Email:
The PC Candidate Cathe Hoszowski may cause voters to think twice about whether or not they want to send Howard back to the Park. Since achieving leadership status in the NDP he is rarely seen by locals. Too much attention on the issues of the GTA will severely cut down on his supporters. Hoszowski has been selling residents on her skills and they are buying after a series of local successes talking the current government into solving local riding issues. Not likely much vote splitting as the Red Lake Liberal has been a no show.
	02/03/03	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Simply through the superhuman strength shown by pushing Frank Miclash over the electoral precipice, Howie the Hampster has ensured K-RR stays his; moreover, he's likely to "make up" in those Kenora polls which remained true to favourite son Miclash in 1999. Also, especially with no Grit incumbent to kick around anymore, the anti-Hampton forces aren't necessarily all in the Liberal camp; the PCs have something of a "Western Alliance" base hereabouts, and nearly defeated Hampton in 1995. (Many more eons ago--and at this point, too long ago to matter--Kenora's Leo Bernier was the Big Blue Machine's Northern boss.) So look at an opposition split; and it won't matter, given the overall satisfaction with the local party-leading representative...
	01/01/03	Geneva Email:
It is highly unlikly that this riding will go anything but ND. Hampton would really have to majorly mess up for him to loose this one (Which will most likely not happen). Sure ND bet.
	05/12/02	SM Email:
I simply can't see Howard losing his own riding. Then, taking into consideration how poorly the Liberals have done throughout this session of provincial Parliament, the NDP's long list of "We told you so's" and the recent polls showing Liberals moving into the NDP camp at a pretty fast rate, the NDP can't lose here.
	25/11/02	Neil Jamieson Email:
High aboriginal population meaning lots of support for NDP and Howard Hampton. Polls were done in the riding in 1999 showing more support for the Liberal candidate but they failed to ask people living in the Northern part of this riding, mainly those small aboriginal communities (example- Sandy Lake) and Hampton won of course.
	08/11/02	Andrew Cox Email: andrewcox101@hotmail.com
NDP win. Reasons. 1) Party leaders typically outpoll their party. All that TV exposure ensures that, while joe opponent may knock on the door three times during the election, dave party leader is in the persons living room three times a day through the TV set. Hampton will be more visible than any opponent could be. 2) The kicked puppy factor. Hampton isn't going to win the general election, but he's going to fight the good fight. People like to vote for local candidates who go down kicking in the media campaign, (see Joe Clark in the 2000 federal election or John Turner in 1984 and 1988). It makes them feel better about themselves. 3) Case history. Hampton beat Frank Miclash, an entrenched veteran Liberal MPP who held half the riding before redistribution. Granted, it took almost the entire provincial NDP machinery and cost the party seats like London North Centre, Hamilton Mountain and Davenport, but it was done. No opponent Hampton faces will be as ready as M! iclash was. 4) Local organization. Hampton has worked that riding in election after election since the 1970s. He isn't going to get caught unawares this time.
	21/10/02	Email:
This riding is definitely up for grabs. Howard Hampton being the NDP leader seems to have hurt the Northwest riding more than it has helped, since local and regional issues are not on the agenda as much. The Liberals are the wild card here, and it depends on who they nominate. If the candidate is not a strong one, the NDP should cruise to victory. If they pick out a star candidate, this could be close!

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