Election Prediction Project
Ontario Provincial Election 2003


Last Update:
9:49 PM 30/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
15 October 2002

Political Profile:

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Liberal Party:
Barbara Sullivan
Progressive Conservative:
Ted Chudleigh
New Democratic Party:
Jay Jackson
Green Party:
Matt Smith

Ted Chudleigh

Federal MP:
Julian Reed

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

35505 64.95%

14767 27.01%

2833 5.18%

806 1.47%

755 1.38%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality12 512
Julian Reed
28 168 47.3%
Tim Dobson
15 656 26.3%
Tom Kilmer
12 114 20.3%
Brenda Dolling
2 633 4.4%

Demographic Profile:

(1996 census)


Avg Household Income

Labour Participation75.90%

Canadian Citizen

Canadian Born80.64%
Ontario Born68.57%
Visible Minority6.37%

First Language

Avg Dwelling Value$220179

College/Trade School28265

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30/09/03 TDV
How can Sullivan expect to win without even sending out a 'mailer'? Perhaps the candidate is conceding the affluent North Burlington polls based on the impact of Liberal Tax hikes and their perception that an income of $60 K classifies one as rich. Chudleigh maybe perceived to be weak but it looks like Sullivan is worse. The riding will remain PC albeit a much smaller margin of victory...the 99 spread is far too much for Dalton to overcome in this riding. Electors, by October 2 will finally recognize what the real impact of choosing change is and will not endorse Dalton in this riding. Hopefully a wake up call to Chudleigh and his PC cohorts.
29/09/03 Captain Undecided
We are the key. I am traditionally a conservative voter in both Provincial and Federal politics but there has been no compelling reason to vote for Ernie via Chudleigh. There is a huge increase in new voters in Halton since the last election. I think the liberals have the edge here.
28/09/03 Tory in Dixie
Email: canadien76@hotmail.com
A staunch Tory riding with solid grass roots. The eight point swing will trim but not eliminate the Tory victory here.
28/09/03 Jerr
This will be much closer than in the last election. Sullivan is a strong candidate and Cudleigh is . . .well, not strong at all (being polite!) This riding has changed considerably since 1999 with 1000s of new voters having moved into new subdivisions in Oakville, Burlington, Milton, Acton, and Georgetown. In my area of Burlington there are very few signs, they are all Liberal. If the Tory vote truly does collape in the 905 than this could be a squeaker for Sullivan.
27/09/03 JW Bennett
Email: jbennett@execulink.com
New Polls out today in the Toronto Star showing the Liberals leading the Tories by 10 points (47-37) in the 905. Even seats like Markham, considered to be the safest Tory seat in the region, are threatened. Barbara Sullivan is a known candidate who has been in the Legislature before until 1995. I think given the prevailing Liberal winds in the province and the poll cited, she stands a good chance to take this one back from Chudleigh.
25/09/03 David
I have to agree with S.Ross. Chudleigh has been a no show at many all candidates meetings - a fact that has been noted in local newspapers and he has been subjected to withering questioning on his and the Tory record where he has shown up. He claimed to have supported efforts to save the Trafalgar moraine but in fact on Bill 27 he voted AGAINST the bill to save it. I have been to many of these all candidates meetings and the feeling is that people want him out. Sullivan is a credible and experienced candidate. Even though Chudleigh had a large majority this will disappear. Even though this is a kind of rural riding there are is a large urban base in North Oakville and Milton.
25/09/03 S Ross
I think change is in the air here - to quote the headline on the front page of a local paper today - "Tory elicits laughter at all candidates", to further quote the article - "In fact, discontent with the Tory record on many fronts was audibly evident through the snorts, snickers and jeers heard at last Thursday night's Halton provincial riding all-candidates meeting."(The Independent & Free Press, Sept 24) Despite historical leanings, it seems to me that people have seen through the PC's dog and pony show this time around.
21/09/03 Gerry kennedy
Peter is kidding himself. I also have Liberal roots but I have the ability to call a turkey a turkey. This riding is staying Tory. If the Tories were reduced to one seat in the 905, this would be it. The CHudleigh/Kennedy (not my family) name means a lot here. Decreased margin of victory? Absolutely. Liberal gain? Not a chance in hell.
19/09/03 Peter Gregg
While I do have Liberal roots, I am not involved in this campaign. I do see a shift here though. Feeling in the riding is that the current member is invisible. Barbara Sullivan is a known, experienced politician and is being well received. High number of motivated teachers and healthcare workers are going to vote liberal.
16/09/03 David Wallbridge
Email: dwallbridge@hotmail.com
Ted Chudleigh must rank in the top 2 of worst MPPs in Queen's Park (just behind Gary Stewart in Peterborough), but it will be very tough to kick him out because the riding of Halton is so conservative. If the PCs lose this seat it would mean that they have gone down to less than 5 seats in the legislature and it does not appear that things are going that way. Too bad. The big question for Halton will be how soon there will be a by-election because Chudleigh will be gone very quickly once the PCs lose this election. Ontario will be a better place when that day arrives.
07/09/03 Tory in Dixie
Email: ericbucholz@hotmail.com
The riding of Garth Turner will stay true to Tory roots. There are alot of small c conservatives in this riding. I'll go one futher and say that not only will Chudleigh keep his riding, but that the Tories will pick up this one next year in the federal election, too !
07/05/03 Craig
This is among the most right-wing ridings in Ontario, that means the Tories should hold on despite losing many seats across Ontario - the 65% last time probably even come close to holding up (the Liberals might get some, so could the FCP) but they're strong enough to salvage Halton. Predicted results: PC 48%, LIB 33%, FCP 11%, Green 4%, NDP 3% (that's right, they'll be fifth here!)
04/04/03 Petrol Pete
Email: petrolpete@hotmail.com
The biggest Tory margin in the province coupled with a respected local MPP that works the riding and comes from a prominent local family? Give Sullivan a Chudleigh double baked apple pie to thank her for showing, then send her home early. Eves and Chudleigh could fly on a government jet to Baghdad, give Hussein a kiss, enlist in his Republican guard, badmouth Shania Twain and the Maple Leafs and the bedrock local Tories will still check the blue box. If Eves takes a majority, look to Chudleigh who backed Eves in the leadership to get a long deserved Cabinet post.
14/03/03 Rob D.
The presence of the Family Coalition Party leader Giuseppe Gori could be more of a factor in this race than last election, with social conservatives and other hard-right Tories venting their hostility at Eves' percieved abandonment of the CSR. Particularly in the more rural, fundamentalist Christian parts of this riding (remember, the Crossroads Christian television station is based out of Halton). Coupled with a strong Liberal candidate, an upset is not impossible. The 20,000 vote margin is a huge hurdle to climb, though. I agree with A.S. that "Scam Jackass" in Burlington probably would have been a better target for the Libs.
25/02/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Kudos to the Grits for nominating the most un-cannon-fodder candidate possible in an apparently cannon-fodder riding (hey, similar tactics helped the Tories in '95). But the chances of the tactic bearing fruit are slim to nil. In fact, Barbara Sullivan probably would have had a better chance against Cam Jackson in Burlington (though a lot of that is by Jackson's own making). And even that's only relatively speaking. Still, give the Grits points for realistic gumption. (Now, if Noel Duignan went for the NDP nomination, making it a 3-way past-present MPP race, *that'd* be hopeless beyond belief...)
25/01/03 Bryan
Email: 0bgc@qlink.queensu.ca
It would be a rough day in Tory land if Chudleigh were to lose this seat. Chudleigh's plurality last time around was just above 20,000 or about 6,000 more than the entire vote total for the Liberals. The local Tory organization is strong with a strong PC Youth organization ready to hit the ground when the writ is dropped. As other posters have pointed out, this is bedrock Tory country. I think it take something of a miracle for the PC Party to lose this seat next time around.
01/01/03 GK
This is probably the safest Tory seat in the province. While the Liberals did get a good candidate, I'm surprised they wouldn't have invested that elsewhere.
14/11/02 Andrew Cox
1) The Grits just nominated Barbara Sullivan as their candidate. Sullivan is the former MPP for the area and is a strong match against Chudleigh. 2) That said, this is bedrock PC Party territory: rich, white, golf club rural. The kind of place people with one foot in the Bay Street boardroom put the other foot. Ernie Eves country. 3) Chudleigh's name recognition (from Chudleigh Apple Farms) is all the boost he needs to see a third term at Queen's Park. Unless the election is held during a blackout, PC lock.
14/10/02 Alana Holmes
October 15,2002. Liberal candidate, John Day was convicted of drunk driving last week and has stepped down as the candidate. See the Oakville Beaver. Doesn't really matter though. Ted will beat anyone the Grits put forward.

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