Etobicoke Centre

Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Etobicoke Centre

Last Update:
3:29 PM 01/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
4:22 PM 24/09/2003

Political Profile:

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)

Liberal Party:
Donna Cansfield

Progressive Conservative:
Rose Andrachuk

New Democratic Party:
Margaret Anne McHugh

Green Party:
Ralph Chapman

Incumbent:

Chris Stockwell

Federal MP:

Hon. Allan Rock

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

Plurality 6483

*CHRIS STOCKWELL

25518 54.12%

AGNES UGOLINI POTTS

19035 40.37%

BONTE MINNEMA

1309 2.78%

DAN MC CASH

389 0.83%

CHRISTOPHER J MORTON

375 0.8%

GERALDINE JACKSON

316 0.67%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction

Plurality 15 765

Allan Rock

26 083 56.4%

Michael G. Kraik

10 318 22.3%

Ross Vaughan

7 566 16.4%

Karen Dolan

2 124 4.6%

Demographic Profile:

Population

2001 105620

1996 104398

1991 102526

(1996 census)
Age

0-19 23120

20-39 28265

40-59 26620

60+ 26415

Avg Household Income
$73422

Labour Participation 61.90%

Unemployment 8.40%

Canadian Citizen
88.44%

Canadian Born 59.04%

Ontario Born 51.00%

Immigrant 40.13%

Visible Minority 19.14%

Aboriginal 0.19%

First Language

English 60875

French 945

Italian 5980

Polish 5950

Ukrainian 3885

Spanish 2055

Residence

House 55.28%

Apartment 44.64%

Owned 62.59%

Rented 37.41%

Avg Dwelling Value $269562

Education

University 28500

College/Trade School 21250

Secondary 28580

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	01/10/03	G. R. Email:
There is no doubt Liberal Donna Cansfield will win the riding. Apart from being, far away, the best candidate, her main opponent, Rose Andrachuk, is as gaffe-prone as leader Ernie. The riding held one All Candidates' meeting. Mrs. Andrachuk confirmed only to back away at the last minute while Donna, NDP McHugh and a Green Party representative turned up for the two-hour meet. But someone in Rose's group found time to placard the windshields of all the cars in the parking lot. A reminder of her no-show insult to voters, no doubt. It is impossible to measure or account for the depths to which the Tories have sunk under the Eves-Harris regime.
	29/09/03	Bill Email:
It is clear that Rose Andrachuk is very good at locking students out of their classrooms but she is even better at locking the Tories out of Etobicoke Centre. It is surprising that the Tories could not find a stronger candidate in such a key riding. It appears that they forfeited this riding early in the campaign - another sign that the Tory ship is rudderless.
	29/09/03	Fast Eddie Email: ed@interlog.com
People seem to feel that this is basically a conservative riding. I'd call it pragmatic. People who live in this area are used to being in positions of power. They're more concerned with having a seat at the governing table than the name of the party doing the governing. Thus it's been the home of such prominent people as Mike Wilson, Allan Rock and Stockwell. If the voters sense (as most realistic people now do) that we're in for a Liberal government, that's how they'll go. What's been said about the candidates will serve to magnify the result, but I doubt there is any combination of PC/Liberal people that would lead to anything but a Liberal victory.
	28/09/03	Tory in Dixie Email: canadien76@hotmail.com
This one is a tossup, not a Liberal lock. You have to weigh the small Tory roots of the riding that supported Michael Wilson and Chris Stockwell during their years in opposition against the fact that there is no incumbent. The 8 point swing the polls are showing for the Liberals would make this riding very tight, but not a lock. Probably one of the few Tory chances in the 416 area code.
	28/09/03	lrs Email:
should be Lib gain- from the outside I would hope she doesn't make cabinet as some papers suggest since she should be forced to obtain experience in the legislature first- it will be interesting what will be the Tory vote- if tories get high 3o percent range would be a moral victory
	27/09/03	Karnak Email:
With recent polling indicating province wide Liberal support above 47%, and Conservative support in the low 30s, it is safe to say that Liberal support in Toronto will be even higher come election day. Cansfield clearly has greater name recognition than Rose Andrachuk, having served as chair of the Toronto public board (which is substantially larger than the Toronto Catholic Board). Andrachuk is to the far right of the Conservative party spectrum and is neither as well spoken or well liked as Donna Cansfield. It is true that the teacher associations have not collectively endorsed Cansfield's campaign, however, the Toronto Elementary Catholic Teachers are more than making up for it. Cansfield voted to lock out both her secondary and elementary teachers and has clearly incurred their wrath. There are literally dozens of elementary catholic teachers streaming into the campaign office on any given day ready to work to defeat Andrachuk in this riding. In terms of signage, the Cansfield campaign appears to have outnumbered Andrachuk as well. Etobicoke Centre is definitely going Liberal this time!
	24/09/03	mw Email:
The Tories have chosen a candidate who is disliked even by many of their own. Her far right-wing, teacher-bashing, anti-gay, etc. stance will alienate even some of the people who voted for old bug-eyes Stockwell. Cansfield should win this riding handily.
	23/09/03	Mike C Email:
This riding is definitely going Liberal this time!! While the Stockwell factor has remained in the background of the campaign, Rose Andarachuk is seriously disliked by her Catholic school constituents--apparently the only person canvassing with Rose is her daughter. Meantime, Donna Cansfield has been strong and energized throughout the race-- she had five people with her when she came to my door. I predict that this "conservative riding" is going to be solidly red on election night.
	23/09/03	Old Bruce Boy Email: dsimms@arvotek.net
Liberal gain. Stockwell's bad behaviour alienated conservative voters. Cansfield has good reputation. Andrachuk is best remembered for locking out Catholic teachers. NDP will probably make gains and may come in second.
	22/09/03	A Email:
The race is Etobicoke Centre is over. NDP support is too weak here for any chance of a vote split and the Tories have all but conceded the race to Cansfield.
	21/09/03	Betanko Email:
The demographics of this riding make it a tough nut for the Liberals to crack, notwithstanding the controversy that ultimately ran Chris Stockwell out of provincial politics. A significant portion of this riding is reasonably wealthy and somewhat older--therefore more likely to vote Tory. That being said, these are the same people giving huge ovations to Dalton McGuinty when he speaks on the downtown rubber-chicken circuit so if the upcoming debate is no worse than a draw for the Liberal leader, this riding will swing his way.
	17/09/03	Gerry Kennedy Email:
Liberal Gain. A) Stockwell, very popular locally, only won by 14% last time. A great deal of that support will erode just because he is gone. B) The provincial campaign should easily make up the difference allowing for Cansfield to pass. C) Rose Andrachuck is not a bad candidate. But she is not as good a candidate as Stockwell who is great.
	11/09/03	Derek Email:
Donna Cansfield will have enough name recognition to win this riding. The tories couldn't find a good candidate to run against her and will pay for this mistake. Cansfield will win 50% of the vote.
	03/09/03	Craig Email:
The Chris Stockwell factor will be the biggest embarrassment here, which has gone from a safe Tory seat to a safe Liberal seat in a heartbeat. Rose Andrachuk will not even be a real factor in Stockwell's shadow, in fact the NDP might pull ahead of her despite being a fringe party here in 1999. The Liberals have a candidate that has been somewhat controversial herself in her days as trustee (which will give Margaret McHugh a decent showing) but the Stockwell factor will be the key here and the media has clearly exposed that one. The Tories - they'll be lucky to get their deposit back. Current prediction: Cansfield 55%, McHugh 21%, Andrachuk 14%, Chapman 4%, others 6%.
	30/08/03	Dog Eat Dog Email:
Rose Andrychuk is not the big name candidate the Tories needed to overcome the Stockwell factor in hold on to Etobicoke Centre. Donna Cansfield's campaign team has doubled in size since the Stockwell scandal and she is in the right place, at the right time and will be going to the Ontario Legislature.
	22/08/03	Grant Email:
Colour this one red. I've always been of the view that any PC candidate with some degree of strength and/or name recognition could at least be competitive in this riding. That's why I thought Stockwell had a chance, albeit painfully slim. With Doug Holyday and Gloria Lindsay-Luby out, and Rob Ford not wanting to offer his dead on Chris Farley impersonation out on the hustings, Cansfield has too much going for to lose at this point, despite overall Liberal weaknesses (If polls are still showing that a majority of Ontarians need a change of government but also showing them not being gung-ho for Dalton McGuinty, fluff it up all you want, this is NOT a good sign for Liberals). Rose Andrachuk can bring name recognition as the perpetually re-elected local Catholic trustee, just as Cansfield was on the public side. But Cansfield can point to her leadership in battling the Tories over TDSB funding (and whose budgets are still showing deficits, despite Paul Christie's tutelage) and flash that about on the campaign trail. What does Andrachuk have to counter that? Probably not much. Liberal gain.
	24/08/03	Dean Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
I lived in the riding for many years and this is as small "C" conservative urban as you can get. PC consistently till 1987 when it went Liberal in the Peterson landslide and then PC ever since under Stockwell. With Stockwell's demise, I would agree that the Liberals will have an edge in the riding, but if the PCs across the province manage to close the gap, this riding should go PC again, along with 3-4 others in Toronto. I note in earlier posts the reference to Allan Rock "bucking" the small "C" trend...well, ANY Liberal would have won this seat, along with the Liberals who have taken the other banner conservative ridings in Toronto 1993 and thereafter. Rock was also seen as the kind of prestigious, "establishment" candidate that the riding federally likes to have as its MP (see Michael Wilson 1979-1993 and Alistair Gillispie, 1968-1979). I suspect that Rock's royal jelly is increasingly seen as ersatz by the riding, but that is for a federal election prediction, not here.
	09/08/03	Derek L. Email:
Well, I hear that Gloria Luby will NOT seek the Tory nomination. It sounds like a Liberal win is starting to look like a foregone conclusion and no Tory of any significance wants to run and lose. This is not really such a small "c" conservative riding. Allan Rock keeps winning it federally for the Libs.
	11/08/03	Reality Check Email:
The Tories like Justin are in serious need of a reality check if they actuallly believe they can win Etobicoke Centre. This is were the Tories play a political price for their attempt to live the lives of the rich and famous. How bad is it for the Tories in this riding. Rob Ford won't run. Doug Holyday won't run. Guy Giorno won't run. From what I hear, Gloria Luby hasn't decided she'll run either. The reason is quite obvious. The Tories are polling in Etobicoke Centre and none of the names they've put forward has enough to overcome the Stockwell factor. In the end, Donna Cansfield is going to ride the Stockwell scandal to victory and there's nothing the Tories can do accept to blame Chris Stockwell.
	11/08/03	IM Email:
Lindsay-Luby, Holiday, and Ford have all said NO!! to running in place of Stockwell. They were the only ones who might have kept this riding in Tory hands.
	01/08/03	Justin Email:
This riding is very conservative oriented. (exceptions have been Rock Federally and Dr. henderson provincially) With Stockwell gone and with Doug Holyday not accepting the nod, then it falls to the next in line Gloria Lindsay Luby. Question here is which of these two ladies is the lesser of the two evils. When all is said and done, Ms. Luby will have an edge becuase she has less skeletons in the closet than Donna. The riding will return a PC to Queen's Park
	01/08/03	SMW Email:
Well... the Liberals on here certainly are crowing now. They might have reason to but for one thing. Gloria Lindsay Luby. If she chooses to run, Donna may as well head back to the school board. Luby is a very popular councillor, and would take this riding in a walk. The question is, will she run?
	30/07/03	Bob Email:
Gloria Lindsay Luby, a City Councillor has indicated her intention to seek the Progressive Conservative nomination. There is also a rumour that Doug Holyday, former Mayor of Etobicoke, is considering entering the race
	28/07/03	WD Email:
Ol' Bugeyes is gone ... and now it gets interesting. Cansfield is a heavy hitter and, unless the Tories throw a slugger of their own in this riding, it's hers. There was some talk of Guy Giorno possibly running here, but i can't imagine that someone with Guy's political savvy (and Toronto lawyer's income) would risk being an opposition backbencher for four years.
	26/07/03	Marty Email:
Do you believe in miracles? Donna Cantsfield does now. The most popular MPP in Toronto is gone as a result of fat cat spending. What is a Tory supporter to do? If Doug Halliday decides to take a shot at provincial politics, the Tories will hold this seat. However, City Hall insiders believe the fine councillor will run for Mayor in 2006 so it is likely he will stay put. Donna should beat just about anyone else that she is challenged by.
	24/07/03	Call Me Shades Email:
How the heck can Dave call Chris Stockwell a straight shooter? Stockwell flat out lied about who paid for his five star, luxury trip to Europe. Remember the story in the Globe and Mail where Stockwell claimed he paid some of his family's expenses himself. Well it turned out that Stockwell didn't pay one red cent of the vacation. His riding association did. Stockwell told a great big lie and the voters will never forget it. Stockwell is history even if guys like Dave can't see it. Donna Cansfield is going to crush Stockwell.
	22/07/03	Dave Email:
First of all - to the scooby doo guy - Etobicoke Centre didn't elect a Cabinet Minister in 1990, 1995, or 1999. So that theory is out the window. Stockwell was only promoted to Cabinet after the '99 election. I believe the "class of 1990" Tories, which Stockwell is a part of, will all hold on to their seats. Stockwell is stiff competition, he's a straight shooter and will no doubt blow the Liberal candidate out of the water - her position on the board just gives him more ammo to use against her.
	18/07/03	The Brain Email:
Anyone paying attention to politics in Ontario can see that Stockwell is finished in this riding. His behavior during the travel scandal was beyond belief and it made it impossible for Stockwell to go back to the people in Etobicoke Centre and ask for another mandate. Donna Cansfield has all the credibility that Stockwell now lacks and is going to the victor when it's all said and done.
	15/07/03	Scooby Doo Email:
I thought Chris Stockwell was in for the fight of his life when the Liberals recruited Donna Cansfield. People in Toronto still remember how Donna as the chair of the Toronto school board did everything she could to make the budget process work only to be shot down by the lefties on the board who wanted a showdown with the province. Now that Stockwell has resigned from cabinet in disgrace, he's not going to be able to hold this riding with Cansfield running hard. Voters in this riding like having a cabinet minister represent them. They know even if by some chance the Tories manage to survive this election, that Stockwell will never sit at the cabinet table again. Cansfield on the other hand will have a clear road to the cabinet when she beats Stockwell.
	14/07/03	AL Email:
Grant wrote over 1000 words in a rather desperate attempt to convince himself that Stockwell still has a chance. Grant can ruminate all he wants but you might as well stick a fork in Stockwell, he's done.
	11/07/03	Monkey Email:
Grant writes a term paper on how he wishes Chris Stockwell still had a chance to be re-elected. In the real world, Stockwell has no political future. Chris is now the poster boy for all the high living the Tories have done at the taxpayer's expense. What makes it even more impossible for Stockwell to hold on is that Donna Cansfield is one of the best new Liberal candidates there is. Grant can still dream of a Stockwell come back but it's only a dream. Stockwell is history.
	05/07/03	Grant Email:
The situation has changed from the last prediction I made. And sure enough, this seat isn't a lock for Stockwell anymore, but I think it will still stay in Tory hands because of the following : (1) The botched strategic voting strategy of '99. With the NDP at its lowest point in ages and the union bosses desparate to turf out the Tories, along came the cries of anyone but (put Tory candidate here). As there's never been any source of NDP/CCF strength here since whatever portions of what is now Etobicoke North and Etobicoke Lakeshore were detached from Etob. Centre, I'd sure bet that what few NDP voters existed here voted Liberal. The result? A 14% margin of victory for Stockwell. Of that 14% margin, how many of those were voters that followed the above strategy, a couple percentage points all told? So would they stick with the Liberal this time? If the NDP flatlines, maybe. But the party has shown signs of turning the corner and, while it won't suck away that many voters, it may take away enough from the Liberal column to give Stockwell breathing space. The left, and even the right fringe parties, won't ever claim a huge portion of the vote here, but they may get a bit more support this time around. And with declining voter turnouts everywhere, any shifts will more likely come from existing bases of support than anywhere else. (2) Time. SARS is fading. Ernie's programs for tax cuts for seniors is coming through. The mandatory retirement legislation will probably need to be passed to fulfill that part of his election strategy, so that will have to be in the fall. And the Tories are sure as hell not going to call an election when a brownout could bite them in the ass at any time. So my money is on a fall election. That gives all these scandals from Stockwell, Cam Jackson et al., time to settle and fade. The second scandal was damaging but will it be fresh enough to cause outrage on that polling day in the fall and cause a red tide to wash over Etob. Centre? My guess is that as the days add distance between the scandal and the election (and who knows maybe some good governance might be tossed into the mix), the chances of "Red rage" diminsh (3) The candidates themselves. Stockwell is hurt, but isn't crippled. It's not like he's some dweeb that happened to get caught in Harris' coattails. He grabbed Etob. Centre in the midst of an NDP sweep with his party barely having a pulse. 13 years have made him balder, fatter and more arrogant. But is he incapable of putting together a campaign team locally that will help him win again? A couple of quick anecdotes on that point. In '95, I remember his campaign literature being stakced with references of community achievements, rather than hyping the CSR platforms. He derided the then Liberal candidate for living outside the riding. In '99, there were vicious rumours that both the PC and Liberal campaigns had workers who were stealing campaign signs from the opposition camp off of lawns and common green spaces. The point is is that Stockwell can probably still put up a good fight and will likely focus his campaign as if he were running towards a municipal campaign, rather than a provincial one. Cansfield represents a stronger Liberal candidate than Agnes Potts was in '99. And herein lies what I think is the wildcard. Will EC voters be so angered at what they feel is PC mismanagement of the education system that they will fall behind a standard bearer like Cansfield? Or will they view her as having fingerprints all over a choatic school system with its work-to-rule campaigns etc. In short, what is wrong with the system, rather than a person who can make it right. My gut instinct tells me that there's a split in EC between these two ideas. I'm leaning towards the idea that there's more of the former, even if EC, than the latter. And that will eat away at that 14% margin. But, again, with the '99 NDP candidate having the 2nd lowest plurality of ANY candidate in Ontario, how much will the Liberal to NDP shift (albeit small) have on the PC to Liberal shift from angry parents? And how many will stay with Stockwell because the Tories, at least those who may change their vote due to education issues, are fighting what they think is the good fight? (4) The riding itself. This ain't Trinity-Spadina. It isn't a traditional Tory stronghold, true. But it is one that seems to like MPs and MPPs who have a presence. They like having cabinet members as their MP, regardless of party, like Allan Rock and Micheal Wilson on the federal level. One should not underestimate that gravitas, though it's a bit more like an albatross now. (5) The opposition. What exactly do the Liberals stand for? What will bring a bunch of dazed Tory voters towards the Liberals? Damned if I know. At the risk of sounding like a Tory hack (which I'm not), I can't think of a handful of policies that would easily distinguish Dalton McGunity from Ernie Eves. If that dynamic exists on election day, what will be the drive to turf Stockwell/the Tories out? An "Anyone but Stockwell" push? If the election were today, I'd say that may work, but wait a few months... A strong performance by Cansfield and/or McGunity? Possible. But Dalton has been flying under the radar, and has been dealing with the endemic backstabbing that all Ontario Liberal leaders seem to have to go through. Cansfield's record might been a driving force, but again, how much of the riding is "pro-teachers" and how much is favour of the Tories staying the course on the education front? With a strong Liberal tide, and an election called sooner rather than later, Cansfield could win. But a floundering McGuinty and/or distance between scandals will keep the riding blue. My guess is that the latter is going to happen. Tory hold.
	04/07/03	Piggly Wiggly Email:
I'm really starting to wonder if the Tories are going to run a different candidate in Etobicoke Centre. Stockwell is so damaged by his European tour that there's no possible way he'd be re-elected. Right now I have to say Cansfield wins but if the Tories came up with a star candidate to run for them, this could change.
	28/06/03	The Hulk Email:
Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. The Liberals talked Donna Cansfield into taking on the unbeatable Chris Stockwell months before the travelgate scandal broke. Without Donna, I would believe that Stockwell would have been able to weather the storm and kept his job. With Cansfield in the race, the voters of Etobicoke Centre have a very good option to Stockwell and are going to take it. If I were Stockwell, I'd spend the summer packing up my office at Queen's Park. He's finished.
	26/06/03	Mike in Etobicoke Centre Email: snowstormcanuck@yahoo.com
Two months ago I would have said this is as safe a Tory seat one can get within the City of Toronto. However, take the fact that scandal ridden Stockwell, who's arrogant, go getter nature is probably more of a reason he was elected than because of his party, might not run for re-elcetion and you've got a race. Cansfield is not the most recognized figure but factor in a Ontario wide Liberal surge in the polls and that this riding, while affluent, is not Tory bedrock (not 15 years ago Linda LeBourdais and Jim Henderson represent Etobicoke West and Etobicoke-Humber) means a quick pick up for Liberals in the next election.
	17/06/03	On da Monay Email: ondamonay_8676686_2003@yahoo.com
Stockwell wouldn't have been keeping this riding if the Liberals had a star candidate - unfortunately, despite her many years as a trustee, Donna Cansfield's sudden turn from PC to Lib just doesn't make her trustworthy to voters and unions. Who knows what she will do next, become NDP?? Perhaps even join the communist party of China
	19/06/03	Michael Ensley Email: mensley@yahoo.com
Chris Stockwell's resignation has put this seat in play.. He will not run again and if he does he will be defeated. The mantra for the liberals will be its time for a change and this riding will be lead the way.
	20/06/03	Andrew Cox Email:
Wow. I read my initial prediction from this riding and reflected on how quickly a political titan can become a pariah. Good thing I said "barring some kind of meltdown," but I thought it would be Eves... Chris Stockwell's resignation, and more importantly, his lying about who paid for his trip to Europe, demolished his local image as a straight-talkin', penny-pinchin', fighting-for-you maverick populist. The advantages of Stockwell as a candidate have been severely undercut, making the race much closer. The Liberals also surprised me with a strong candidate in this riding. In 1999, they ran a place-holder. Donna Cansfield is a very solid candidate, who will attract middle-class female swing voters. Stockwell's margin wasn't gigantic, and all Cansfield must do is convince 3,000 people who supported Stockwell last time to switch. I never like to underestimate a guy who won as a rookie Tory in 1990, but this expenses stuff looks really bad. I'm going to say Too Close to Call, and part of me thinks I'm being generous to Stockwell because I feel bad for him.
	16/06/03	ARL Email:
Chris Stockwell's abrasive behaviour, ego and sense of personal entitlement have finally sunk him. Voters will be looking at the Liberals next election in a way they wouldn't have been had their Tory MPP been someone other than Stockwell.
	16/06/03	Craig (Updated prediction) Email:
Chris Stockwell has just 'given' the seat to the Liberals in this scandal. Even with the weak Liberal candidate, the electorate will probably agree that it will probably be better for an unknown to represent the riding than a corrupt candidate. As a result, what was the safest Tory seat in the city of Toronto will be lost as well. A strong FCP or FPO candidate will eat the far-right vote up as well, but they have already lost it. Predicted results: LIB 50%, PC 22%, NDP 19%, Green 4%.
	13/06/03	JS Email: unclejoesayshello@yahoo.co.uk
Looks a safe Tory seat, BUT Stockwell is in a "bit"(!) of trouble right now, because of the trips-to-europe thing...Too close.
	13/06/03	Marty Email: ptplus@axxent.ca
What was once an unwinnable seat for the Grits is now very winnable. I don't even think Stockwell will be the Tory candidate here. He will resign before the election and the Liberals will take the seat. Talk about being a fat cat! Chris has p/o'd his constits, his riding association and his fellow cabnet ministers. Turn off the lights Chris. The party is over.
	11/06/03	Rob D. Email:
Yet another boondoggle scandal? With a strong opposition candidate and the Libs gearing up for a sweep of the province, Stockwell is toast.
	06/06/03	AC Email:
I dunno squat about this riding, so, no particular prediction. BUT: seems to me that Stockwell is taking his 54% majority for granted... getting exposed in a SECOND freeloading on taxpayers' dime with a specil bonus coverup funnel through a Crown Corp. This follows the $12,000 beer tab exposed last fall. Stockwell is witty, sure, but his short fuse will be his undoing. He's too bellicose. Combine all this with a weak Ernie Eves, appetite for change, a Liberal candidate with profile (and the story that the former Tory abandoned her Tory to run against a screw-up, dictatorial central government) a stronger McGuinty and Liberal central campaign, and you have a battle. NDP and Green, and even Independents, could have impact on this riding, where each vote lost by Tories AND/OR Libs will obviously matter. Seems to me the question to ask is how much of Stockwell's 54% came from Harris popularity in sync with his maverick profile. Stockwell has now sold out, at taxpayer expense, nonetheless. Winner: 48% Runner up: 42% NDP: 3-4% Green & other leftovers: 5%. Very interesting stuff. Prediction: too close to call. Talk amongst yourselves!
	05/06/03	Grant Email:
With due respect to Rob M.'s enthusiasm, and the optimstic estimates of Craig (a 20+ percentage of the vote for the NDP et al. 'left' hasn't been seen in this area since the late 60s), this is a Tory lock. Given the bitchfests around the anti-pesticide law they recently passed in city council, Etobians don't seem to care much about the environment either. Stockboy works this riding like the municipal politician that he is and he knows how to take care of his constituents. It's rumoured he gave the final push for a new Catholic school that was built around the corner from my house after the project languished for umpteen years. Toss in a likable maverick quality and a sharp intellect (when he doesn't act like an ass), he's safe. His leadership run was only to position for the next time around anyway. Cansfield will give him a better run for the money especially if the Liberal coattails actually exist this time round. But the necks in these parts are redder than the voters, unless you're a federal Liberal with a pulse. Considering that the 1990 NDP candidate only got between 15-20% in a Bob Rae landslide, the '95 NDP candidate was chased off people's property (personal anecdote from the candidate herself) and the '99 candidate's presence was reduced to a couple of lawn signs off the highway, this is a 2 horse race. After all, this is a seat the Tories gained during the PC lean years. Cansfield's only hope is a Liberal tidal wave of McGuintymania.
	26/05/03	Craig Email:
The Liberals made a huge mistake in the candidate selection, and that will save Chris Stockwell here and makes him the only 'safe' Tory in the City of Toronto (the rest are either close races or bound to swing Liberal). That nomination of Donna Cansfield will probably help the NDP here, creating a vote split as left-leaning Liberals turn away. Predicted results: PC 42%, LIB 32%, NDP 16%, Green 5%.
	24/05/03	Rob M. Email: mcgarry1@sympatico.ca
I want to start off by saying I do not live in this riding but I follow poltics. I know, I know the NDP did horrible here last time but they have a good candidate. The PC leadership race was horrible and so was the Hydro fiasco. Chris Stockwell gets pissed off to much and is a horrible and I mean horrible Minister of Environment, the Tories do not give a damn about the Environment even though they sugar coat a message of they care. The NDP is the only way to go. I think Chris should read the writing on the wall and go have a couple of beers and get drunk, of course he should foot that on the taxpayers bill, if you know what I mean!
	23/05/03	Grizz Email:
The tarnish reputation of Cansfield will win it for the PC.
	21/04/03	On da Monay Email: ondamonay_8676686_2003@yahoo.com
Donna Cansfield, who called CUPE workers a bunch of teenagers during their strike, has suddenly turned Liberal? You've got to be kidding me! On the Toronto public school board, actual Liberal and NDP trustees had gotten together to prevent her from becoming chair. Donna, you must be colour blind, cus blue ain't anywhere near red!! And now that you've joined the Liberals to lose this riding - yes, Chris Stockwell is unbeatable - the only thing you have accomplished is to successfully pull off a John Nunziata. Sometimes, even the most intelligent do things that are utterly clueless.
	16/04/03	Not Non Partisan Email:
Donna, Donna, Donna, What can you be thinking? Having soiled your reputation in the company of those left-wing losers at the Board of Ed., now you want to join your nemisis, left-loony Trustee Kathleen Wynne as a Lib candidate for the pink palace. The Libs are an ideological mess and its going to show. Stockwell in a walk-over here. By the way Donna, do you have a current-year-card in the Etobicoke Centre PC Association?
	14/04/03	Rob. D. Email:
School Board Co-Chair to Run as Liberal "Having been stripped of her powers by the provincial Conservatives, Donna Cansfield, co-chair of the Toronto public school board, plans to run against them. Cansfield, a former card-carrying Conservative, announced yesterday that she will be the Liberal candidate in the upcoming provincial election in the riding of Etobicoke Centre, currently held by Environment Minister Chris Stockwell." (Source: Toronto Star) Methinks this bodes ill for Stockwell.
	27/03/03	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Though the heart says Stockwell, I barely, and very reluctantly, withold a prediction here. Still, if there's any 416er who can still spin the Tory record to his electoral advantage, it's Chris Stockwell. (And with municipal emissaries such as Doug Holyday and Gloria Lindsay Luby, he's not lacking in raw foundation material.) But he's no longer running as Speaker; he's running as a lowly cabinet minister (and maverick leadership candidate). In other words, he "sold out to the party establishment". Maybe. I doubt that constituents would hold suburban-yahoo Toronto Island-bashing against him. In fact, perhaps I should withold my witholding and turn it into a flat-out prediction. It's not too late for Stockwell X to run for Toronto mayor, is it...
	21/03/03	Paul Email:
Sure, he may get thirsty during the campaign and ring it up on the old taxpayers dime, but nothing seems to quench the parchest of throats than re-electing this brash ne'er do much to represent whatever he decides to run for.
	30/01/03	JJ Email:
Gee, if The Great Communicator sells his own continued relevance anywhere close to as well as he sold hydro privatization... Could be in for a bruising.
	13/11/02	Andrew Cox Email:
Chris Stockwell. No other politician in Ontario combines high-powered Tory establishment influence with a maverick-populist communications stance. The combination is as unbeatable as it is riddled with internal contradictions. Barring some type of central campaign meltdown, he's a shoe-in no matter who runs against him. Represented the area at City Hall, Metro Hall or Queen's Park since forever.
	15/10/02	Email:
If Chris Stockwell runs for re-election he will easily win this riding. It has elected him with majorities in every election since 1990. Even if the Tories were to be thrown out of power, this riding would still likely send Mr. Stockwell back the Legislature.

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