Election Prediction Project
Ontario Provincial Election 2003


Last Update:
3:29 PM 01/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
20 October 2002

Political Profile:

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Liberal Party:
Bruce Crozier
Progressive Conservative:
Pat O'Neil
New Democratic Party:
Pat Hayes
Green Party:
Darren Brown

Bruce Crozier

Federal MP:
Hon. Susan Whelan

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

25446 56.73%

15354 34.23%

3745 8.35%

307 0.68%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality4 505
Susan Whelan
20 524 44.3%
Scott Cowan
16 019 34.6%
Marion Overholt
6 431 13.9%
Merrill Baker
3 175 6.9%

Demographic Profile:

(1996 census)


Avg Household Income

Labour Participation69.20%

Canadian Citizen

Canadian Born86.68%
Ontario Born82.20%
Visible Minority2.50%

First Language

Avg Dwelling Value$161513

College/Trade School25290

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01/10/03 The Big Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
To rebuke the last posting which states that, "The coat tails of a party heading into government has no pull in the Windsor Essex region." Well that is true beacuse the members from Windsor Essex are already part of the party that is heading into government. Hayes is a popular candidate, I'll admit that, and will bode well compaired to the NDP results in 99 (they can't get much worse than 8%). However the demographics are not that of an NDP supporting populace throughout much of the riding. As well, kicking out an incumbant who is part of the party that will form the next government is not something that will help the riding. The people I talk to seem to realise that, and the impression I get is that most will vote Liberal.
27/09/03 TM
I drove around the riding today. I drove through Essex, Lakeshore, Kingsville and back. This riding is a secure Hayes win. There are more Hayes signs than Crozier and ONeil combined. In fact there were even more Hayes signs in Kingsville where ONeil is based. Pat Hayes is a popular mayor that has been in the news for four years. The coat tails of a party heading into government has no pull in the Windsor Essex region.
26/09/03 The Big Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Guff, what are you smoking and where can I get some? I live in Essex and I have yet to see or hear much from Hayes. The NDP are at 12%, same as during the last election and they got a measly 8% in Essex. This is farm country in southern Ontario, a riding that would be ripe for the taking by the PCs assuming they were in a better situation. The liberals are going to win big, and its highly unlikely that Liberal incumbants will loose their seats. Any erosion of Liberal support will help the Torys win (unlikely). Kudos for standing up and saying what you think will happen but the numbers are the face of the riding is not behind the NDP.
26/09/03 Craig
This riding is quite interesting - mixing a union-based suburban area with a rural agricultural area. That being said, Crozier should hang on with the rural vote. The Windsor suburbs are still likely to be strong NDP territory with the union spillover, and the Tories have traditionally held the farmers (but that appears to be going away this year). The Liberal vote is spread out but deep enough to take it, although the vote count won't be as high as it was in the past. Current prediction: Crozier 41%, Hayes 30%, O'Neil 24%, Brown 4%, others 1%.
24/09/03 guff
Both Pat O'neil and Bruce Crozier are running scared Hayes will receive 20,000 votes Crozier's large voter base in Leamington is now gone. O'neil Crozier will split the vote in Kingsville. Crozier and Hayes WILL split vote in LaSalle. Hayes will get 60 to 70% of the vote in Lakeshore and Essex giving him the victory.
09/09/03 The Big Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Living in Essex, it seems likely that the Liberals will take it. In my humble opinion, few (if any) incumbant Liberals will loose their seats and this riding is strongly Liberal. I know people will comment on the farmers giving their vote to the PC plus the strong showings for the Alliance in the last federal election. However the bulk of the population in Essex resides in suburban towns like LaSalle, which are not going PC. As for the NDP, they have a strong showing in windsor but it dies down once you cross the city limits. I don't expect any upsets in Essex.
15/07/03 J.S
Email: jarrow_crusade1936@hotmail.com
Well...as for Essex being more conservative than Windsor St Clair or Windsor West...To be honest that's not very difficult. This riding could be quite close, as Craig says all three parties have at least some strengnth here: *The Liberals have an incumbent who won over 50% of the vote in 1999. *The Liberals look(as of now), very likely to form the next government. *The Tories have the farmers in their back pocket, which means they can never be counted out here. *The NDP machine in Windsor is very strong. *The NDP have a good candidate. *The Canadian Alliance did well here in the 2000 federal election. Who this helps more, the Tories or the NDP I'm not sure.
12/05/03 Grizz
I must respond to Matt's comments. Living in a neighbouring riding I do know somethign of the voters in Essex. True they are more conservative than in Windsor West or Windsor St Clair. And also true that they are tired of being represented by an opposition memeber. However what is also true is that they have a relativly popular incumbant and the Liberals looked poised to take office. I keep saying it, people want change. Look what happened in Quebec...
31/03/03 Matt
This is the one Windsor riding that probably won't go Liberal this time around. It's the most conservative area in Windsor/Essex and it seems like people are getting tired of not being represented in the provincial government.
18/03/03 Joe Horneck
Crozier will win again abet perhaps not by as large a margin but he has 10,000 votes to burn and the Tories are rehashing their candidate from last time. The NDP has a better candidate then last time but even if you double their votes from last time and minus them from the Libs it still makes a Liberal win.
03/03/03 Craig
I agree - this will be a wild one, and all three parties have their strenghts: The Tories have the farmers to help them out here, and there are a fair amount of farmers in this riding - so those votes should sway over, especially if they release a good agricultural plank in the platform. The Liberals currently hold this riding, but they must feel threatened now - encroachment by both the NDP and Tories are going to hurt them and they will need to play defense if they want to retain the seat. At least they have an incumbent, even if he is likely to be a backbencher if the Liberals form government. The NDP have 2 federal MP's just down the road, and a very credible candidate to help them out. The suburbs of Windsor are still going to be voting NDP because of the incredibly high union population in the area, plus they seem to have the region under control. It will be fun to watch!
03/03/03 Josef Kunzler
Email: josef_kunzler@hotmail.com
Looking at the stats, this riding could go either way. But Bruce Crozier is really very articulate in the House (yes I'm "dorky" enough to read Hansard) and has been working to improve republican democracy. Again, this should be in the "could go anywhere" column.
02/03/03 MA
Following Pat O'Neil's nomination meeting, the PCs are in full force in Essex. The endorsement of Tecumseh and Lasalle mayors Ed Renaud and Bill Varga ensure a county council support.
20/02/03 John Ashton
Email: ashton@johnashton.ca
The entry of Lakeshore Mayor Pat Hayes (NDP) and re-entry of Essex County Warden Pat O'Neil (PC) changes the dynamins of this ridings severly. What was supposed to be an easy walk for Liberal MPP Bruce Crozier now has three of rural Essex county's most popular public figures running against each other. Becase of redistribution in 1996, Crozier's orginal home base in Leamington (Crozier is the former mayor) is now in Chatham-Kent-Essex. While he didn't really need it in 1999, he'll miss it this time with two very strong challengers instead of one. O'Neil will run a very formidable campaign, especially in the Kingsville area. But this is a riding that didn't even go PC in 1995, so unless the Tories break the 50% barrier, it won't this time. I think Hayes will likely be the best mobized, and has a very motivated voter base in Lakeshore, good for a a 3%-4% victory, as long as the NDP stay in the 18%-22% range in the provincewide polls, as they have done so far. But it's also entirely likely that all three of them could get more than 30% in this riding this year.
09/02/03 ATGS
In a new turn of events, the popular Mayor of Lakeshore (and former MPP) Pat Hayes will be seeking the NDP nomination in this riding. This could very well jump start the New Dems in this riding, and certainly gives Bruce Crozier something to worry about.
18/10/02 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Bruce Crozier, who's demonstrated a remarkable electoral machine in the past, ought to be home free in the Essex heartland. Keep in mind, though, that the Tories defied conventional wisdom by conducting a surprisingly credible campaign here in 1999. Compounding matters is that Essex became a shock marginal bastion of CA strength in 2000. In fact, Essex is the only Ontario riding where Reform/Alliance 1997 + 2000 surpasses PC 1997 + 1999 + 2000 as well as NDP 1997 + 1999 + 2000! But unless something horrible happens to the Liberals--or if the NDP comes anywhere near its pre-Mike Harris status as the *true* nominal opposition hereabouts (in which case it's as likely to steal Tory votes as Grit votes), Crozier should be back.

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