Eglinton-Lawrence

Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Eglinton-Lawrence

Last Update:
5:05 PM 07/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
26 October 2002

Political Profile:

Candidates:
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Liberal Party:
Mike Colle

Progressive Conservative:
Corinne Korzen

New Democratic Party:
Robin Alter

Green Party:
Mark Viitala

Incumbent:

Mike Colle

Federal MP:

Joseph Volpe

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

Plurality 9157

*MIKE COLLE

24151 56.78%

*JOHN PARKER

14994 35.25%

JAY WATERMAN

1835 4.31%

FRANK D'ANGELO

821 1.93%

SHELLY LIPSEY

470 1.1%

NEIL C. DICKIE

263 0.62%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction

Plurality 18 005

Joe Volpe

25 161 60.7%

Louise Sankey

7 156 17.3%

Joel Etienne

5 497 13.3%

Simon Rowland

2 663 6.4%

Demographic Profile:

Population

2001 111237

1996 108410

1991 103242

(1996 census)
Age

0-19 26075

20-39 34290

40-59 25495

60+ 22560

Avg Household Income
$76079

Labour Participation 62.60%

Unemployment 8.70%

Canadian Citizen
85.40%

Canadian Born 56.51%

Ontario Born 48.36%

Immigrant 42.16%

Visible Minority 22.83%

Aboriginal 0.24%

First Language

English 64245

French 1260

Italian 9600

Portuguese 4095

Chinese 2825

Spanish 2620

Pilipino 2030

Residence

House 49.68%

Apartment 49.86%

Owned 50.36%

Rented 49.64%

Avg Dwelling Value $301380

Education

University 33580

College/Trade School 17000

Secondary 24570

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	01/10/03	Z. Finneron-Burns Email: 2ef@qlink.queensu.ca
Mike Colle should rest easy. He is not going to lose Eglinton-Lawrence. The riding is very ethnically divided, but he commands the northern, Lawrence portion of the Italian and Jewish vote. The southern Eglinton part feels somewhat ignored by his staff, so that area is more iffy. However, they do not show up to vote in as vast numbers as the Lawrence portion, and are sufficiently tired of the Tory government that they will overlook the individual member and vote Liberal.
	01/10/03	Allen Email:
Mike Colle will clean up here. I think he is one of the best reps. around, and I'm an NDP supporter (in contrast, I can't stand the federal MP - the right-wing Liberal Joe Volpe). Looking around the riding, the only place where Korzen is winning is in the Bathurst-Lawrence area where there is a huge Orthodox Jewish population. Looking around the riding, Colle wins the sign war - even in the affluent WASP/Jewish Lytton Park area. In heavily Jewish Allenby (home to the highest percentage of Ph.D.'s in Toronto), where I live (yes, I'm a secular Jewish professor) the sign war is between Colle and Alter. Colle is cleaning up in the heavily Italian, suburban working class parts of the riding, and in largely black Lawrence Heights area, it's a fight between Colle and Alter. Prediction: Colle 67%, Korzen 23%, Alter 8%, Viitala 2%
	29/09/03	André Email:
This riding has been a Liberal stronghold for many years and it won't change. Ethnic vote has always gone towards anyone who resembles an ethnic name. Mike Colle in a landslide.
	24/09/03	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
The fact that Mike Colle's f-worded lashing-out at the young Tory shill at St. Lawrence Market early in the campaign didn't result here in a plethora of PC predictions for Eg-Law shows how safe he truly is...
	26/03/03	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
The eastern half of E-L is sufficiently (and more) Tory so that the de-seated Ron Parker felt he had a chance here in 1999--against Mike Colle (and a Toryphobic western half), though, ixnay. And a Tory upset's much less likely today--even in the event that NDP rebounds any from its '99 barrel bottom. And Colle isn't terribly Cordiano-tainted other than as a tokenism; in fact, he more deftly straddles the suave urban progressivism epitomized by his midtown neighbour Michael Bryant. With such a sitting member in mind, anything less than 50% would be unforeseen catastrophe.
	17/03/03	ME Email:
Colle certainly has a great profile, and is well respected for his hard work throughout the riding. The Tory candidate is running on the single issue of private school tax credit, which is hardly a hot topic outside of the Orthodox Jews community. However, considering his close ties with the Cordiano camp, which can hardly wait to dance on McGuinty's grave (and they are not the only ones, others are just more subtle about it), Colle's prospect for cabinet is questionable.
	16/03/03	lrs Email:
Colle has a great profile- he would survive a Tory landslide-likely going to cabinet in a Liberal government
	05/03/03	PH Email: pharris@uwo.ca
The tories have alway cleaned up in the Eglington portion of the riding and lost the Lawerence part. Now they have elcted a candidate who has roots in the Lawerence area and is out working hard everyday. My prediction - Tories in a close one
	04/03/03	MF Email:
Mike Colle will definitely win here...He's one of the most progressive Liberals, which has cut into most of the riding's potential NDP support - the largely working-class West Indian, Latino and Portuguese communities in the old city of York and in Lawrence Heights. Perhaps popular Councillor Howard Moscoe could pick up some votes here. This riding isn't a Tory stronghold. There are the WASPy bastions of Lytton Park and Bedford Park (though Lytton Park has a large Jewish population), but they're not the majority by any means. Middle-class Allenby, largely Jewish and heavily populated by university professors, is most likely not a Tory stronghold. The large Jewish and Italian communities have been traditionally Grit-friendly (although Orthodox Jews are more conservative). And certainly Lawrence Heights and the old City of York aren't
	04/02/03	George Email:
Mike Colle will easily win the next provincial election in Eglinton-Lawrence. The opposition parties know this and will be hard pressed to find enthusiastic candidates to oppose him. Why? Because he is one of the finest representatives ever elected to the legislature of Ontario. He seems to really care and works tirelessly for his constituents, often recognizing and leading issues ahead of all other municipal and provincial politicians. I can think of many areas where he has led the fight, such as: market value assessment, problems with the Ontario Municipal Board, opposition to over-development at Rosewell Court and Yonge and Eglinton (Minto), saving the Eglinton Theatre, saving the Oak Ridges Morraine, turning back excessive toll charge increases on the 407, licencing puppy mills, red light legislation, etc. Next month I am sure that he will identify yet another cause which needs attention on behalf of the citizens of Eglinton-Lawrence and the rest of the province.
	27/01/03	bert Email:
A cake-walk for Mike Colle. He is very popular and has worked extremely hard for his constituents.
	14/01/03	Sarah Email:
Mike Colle will win easily with an even higher plurality than last time. He is one of the hardest working MPPs who fights not only for his own constituents, but for all Ontarians. His dedication has earned him wide-spread respect from all parties. Mike won last time over a Tory incumbent and did well even in many polls (new for Mike with the redistribution of the riding)which had always been predominantly Tory. Although the Liberals will win without a doubt in Eglinton-Lawrence, I believe many votes for Mike are exactly that - votes for Mike Colle.
	14/01/03	AJ Email:
Colle, a 20 year political veteran, is nearly untouchable. He is a tireless worker always paying attention to the needs of his diverse constituents. Whether it is fighting the OMB, for education or environmental protection, the one thing all his constituents rely on him for is his tenacious fighting spirit. They love that he fights for them at big bad Queen's Park.
	25/10/02	Burke Email:
Another easy victory for the Liberals in Eglinton-Lawrence. Mike Colle has been the champion for Toronto and is well regarded across the city. He won with a plurality in 1999 and the fed's have elected the Liberals consistently since the eighties. The Liberals should win handily in Eglinton Lawrence.

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