Dufferin-Peel-Wellington-Grey

Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Last Update:
9:22 PM 30/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
26 October 2002

Political Profile:

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)

Liberal Party:
Daniel Yake

Progressive Conservative:
Ernie Eves

New Democratic Party:

Green Party:
Frank de Jong

Incumbent:

Ernie Eves

Federal MP:

Murray Calder

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

Plurality 16941

*DAVID TILSON

30532 64.76%

STEVE WHITE

13591 28.83%

NOEL DUIGNAN

1871 3.97%

RICHARD PROCTER

1156 2.45%

2002 By-election:
Plurality 3560

Ernie Eves

15288 46.59%

Josh Matlow

11728 35.74%

Doug Wilcox

2633 8.02%

Richard Procter

2017 6.15%

Dave Davies

1025 3.12%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction

Plurality 6 650

Murray Calder

21 678 45.6%

Don Crawford

15 028 31.6%

Richard Majkot

7 926 16.7%

Mitchel Healey

1 473 3.1%

Demographic Profile:

Population

2001 127673

1996 110571

1991 98460

(1996 census)
Age

0-19 34035

20-39 32320

40-59 29375

60+ 14840

Avg Household Income
$66495

Labour Participation 73.00%

Unemployment 5.50%

Canadian Citizen
96.45%

Canadian Born 84.32%

Ontario Born 76.08%

Immigrant 15.55%

Visible Minority 2.46%

Aboriginal 0.30%

First Language

English 96710

French 1000

Italian 3295

German 2520

Residence

House 88.86%

Apartment 10.46%

Owned 81.41%

Rented 18.59%

Avg Dwelling Value $211762

Education

University 15930

College/Trade School 26700

Secondary 34345

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	29/09/03	Gerry Kennedy Email: gerardjkennedy@hotmail.com
Eves will carry his own seat. However, it won't be pretty and if DeJong weren't here he wouldn't be carrying it. DeJong will probably take about 15% of the vote. I think Eves will only get about 42%. WHen we factor in the NDP and the fringe parties, Eves will survive but by less than 3,000 as Tories are getting walloped in 905 (Where a large portion of this riding is situated). Eves=42%/Yake=34%/DeJong=15%/NDP=6%/Others=3%
	29/09/03	M Email:
With long time Tory strongholds now starting to fall, Ernie needs to be very concerned. This election with all its similarities reminds me of the 1993 Tory disaster. In that election, the Tories were decimated to 2 seats, and even the leader was defeated. This time around, even Ernie is in trouble in what should have been a safe seat. I have a hunch that Ernie will be retired from public life on October 2nd, not of his own doings, but by the people of DPWG. In fact, this defeat for the Tories may be so bad that they will not even form the official opposition, much more, make offical party status.
	28/09/03	Tory in Dixie Email: canadien76@hotmail.com
Come on, you Liberals. This is not 1993, where Campbell lost her seat. Eves will hang on here, by a fairly respectable margin. Peel has only gone Tory, almost consecutively, since the days of the Great Depression. Even the worse polls show the Liberals and Tories tied in the rural areas.
	26/09/03	A.E Email: alnu_cephmiar@yahoo.co.uk
Premier Ernie Eves' seat. He personally selected it, and he seems to have chosen well: The demographics scream "TORY" and despite Eves' trouble province wide, he should manage to hang on hear. The Liberals do have an outside shot here...but why waste resources gunning down Eves, when there are other seats nearby that the Liberals have a very good shot at winning. And the fact that, if they[the Liberals] win the election, there will be a by-election here...
	25/09/03	Craig Email:
There are virtually no safe Tory seats now. This will be like David Peterson in 1990 - the sitting Premier losing his own seat in an embarrassment. The Tories are almost certainly not going to form government, and Ernie Eves is certainly not going to last long on the opposition side, meaning there will be a very quick by-election. That thought alone (along with the negative press and record) will give Yake the seat to put the voters here out of their misery, even though the Green Party may take some votes out of them (and possibly even a few Tory votes). The NDP is not on the radar screen here. Current prediction: Yake 44%, Eves 34%, de Jong 17%, Healey 4%, others 1%.
	23/09/03	James Bow Email:
I'm given some pause after seeing that Eves took this riding in a by-election by a substantially smaller margin than the previous PC contender. You would think that by running a sitting premier in a seat that safe, he could at least duplicate the performance of the person who vacated it. That said, I don't see Eves losing this one, though I do see, as others have said, a very quick byelection if the Eves government is reduced to opposition status.
	23/09/03	Yukon Pundit Email:
Fair enough TM. I was just making a point to the delusional Green Party candidate about his leader's chances in a strong right-wing region, even if sections have gone Liberal before. Let's face it, Eves didn't pick this riding to run in because he loves the hills of Caledon or the dairy farms of West Luther Township. He picked it because it's a safe Tory seat for a premier to run in and hold. That's what I was pointing out.
	20/09/03	TM Email:
Obviously further clarification is needed for Yukon Pundit. The Grey and Wellington parts of DPWG make up a very small part of the riding's population, maybe 15 or 20 percent. They do not decide the results in this riding. Liberal Mavis Wilson won in 1987 in the former Dufferin-Peel riding and received about 50 percent of the vote. Tory Jack Johnson was re-elected in Wellington riding in 1987. Dufferin County (where I grew up)and the Town of Caledon make up the vast majority of the current riding's population and have changed drastically in recent years. Many residents now commute to work in Brampton and Toronto. The Tory tradition to which Yukon Pundit refers is slowly eroding. Why so much hostility, Yukon Pundit? Eves is still set to win this one.
	19/09/03	Yukon Pundit Email: jtsmall@polarcom.com
Just to correct TM, as is necessary, while Mavis Wilson may have won part of this riding before, the section I was referring, to the hardcore Grey, Wellington section which I used to live in has not gone Liberal in eons. It was won for years by Jack Johnson and then Ted Arnott before redistribution. So stick to correcting yourself TM
	17/09/03	Old Bruce Boy Email: dsimms@arvotek.net
It may be a bit of long shot at this point, but I definitely see the potential for an Eves defeat in his own riding. Remember what happened to David Peterson in and Kim Campbell. I see a lot of similarities. An unpopular government calling an election just because they think they have the best chance of winning now. A series of attack ads that reflect worse on the government than on the opposition. People in this riding are not stupid and they don't like to be manipulated. I see this riding going red on election night.
	13/09/03	Mike in Etobicoke Centre Email: snowstormcanuck@yahoo.com
It certainly is intersting. Publicpower.ca has Mitchel Healey, who ran in the 2000 federal election, named as their candidate for DPWG but the site doesn't have a photo or a bio of him. Neither is there any campaign contact email, website or street address. A quick search of google and it looks like Healey is a ghost! One of two things can be assumed. Either this bottomfeeding candidate knows he and the NDP don't have a shot in hell of taking this riding and have already conceded or the NDP have finally realized that vote splitting helps to Tories and dethrowning the Premier would sure be a victory. Either way, if Healey remains invisible it will only help Yake as lost votes on the left will turn to the Liberals. Seeing as that Eves won with only a minority of votes in 2002 and this is turning into a two way race, Yake could surprise everyone on election night.
	12/09/03	The Big Ape Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Some time ago I may have thought that Ernie could be in trouble within his own riding, but those thoughts are long gone. Conservative minded folk and the PC leader as the incumbant. Excellent change for a PC win, close to nil chance for anyone else.
	11/09/03	TM Email:
Some of the previous posts need to be corrected. Mavis Wilson won this riding for the Liberals in 1987 and served in cabinet. Tilson barely won the riding back for the PC's in 1990. However, it will likely remain blue this time.
	08/09/03	Yukon Pundit Email: jtsmall@polarcom.com
I can't see how anyone realistically can pick anyone other than Eves here. As a political pundit now living in Northern Canada who grew up in this riding, I know the blind support the Tories get here provincially. When the rest of the province went either red or orange in 1987 and 1990, there was no question where this province was going. The map stayed blue and it will continue to do so. Running the leader just adds an extra, unnecessary nail into the coffin of all the other candidates but quite frankly, anybody could strap on the Tory logo for this riding and win it, easily. Why else do you think Eves picked it last year? He may be a unappetizing shade of orange due to his unnatural tanning process but the premier is not stupid. He knows a sure thing for the Tories and it is this area of the province. As for the blind candidate for the Greens, the party may be making some progress but there is no potential for a gain here. Obviously, living in Toronto (something else I've done) you think there's always a good chunk of voters on the left or soft left to be wooed, as there is in most sections of Toronto and even in the 905 belt. But this is deep Blue-Grandpa-voted-Tory-100-years-ago-and-I-will-not-change territory and there isn't enough on the left for the Greens to sway. Heck, there isn't enough on the left middle and soft right for the Liberals to win it. The farmers here will vote blue. So,put away your pipe dream for this riding and think of more realistic regions such as your own for the Greens.
	06/09/03	Tory in Dixie Email: ericbucholz@hotmail.com
Tory hands down. The Dufferin area has been staunchly Tory, the base of such Tory legends such as Earl Rowe. This practically dates back to the days before my grandmother, now 90, was old enough to vote ! 'Nough said.
	07/08/03	Craig Email:
The Tory platform is clearly designed to help out the hardcore Conservative areas like this, and the presence of the Green Party leader certainly changes things somewhat. Frank de Jong will not win for sure, but he should easily beat the NDP who do not even have a candidate yet (and no union base at all here), and could play spoiler for sure. Where the Green vote comes from could decide this - I think it will mostly be former Liberal votes, which should save Eves, since the anti-Eves vote would be divided (2 ways, not 3 ways, since the NDP are a fringe party here). Should Eves win and the party lose, there will certainly be a snap byelection here, so that could play a role too. Current prediction: Eves 42%, Yake 39%, de Jong 16%, NDP 3%.
	10/07/03	WD Email:
What is the Green candidate from Trinity-Spadina (that would be Mr. Laxton) smoking? A win for de Jong? That's typical Green Party hash brownie in the sky thinking. Yes, it's an interesting matchup and (as I have said below) the PCs would be fools not to give the Green Party some profile in the election, but the premier and Yake would each have to die horrible, horrible deaths for Mr. de Jong to win here. The most likely outcome is that he will split the anti-Eves vote three ways, and unless Yake gets his act together or the tide really seems to be turning red, Eves will win. Mind you, if the PCs don't form the government, there is going to be an awful quick byelection here ...
	09/07/03	ME Email:
To the naive person predicting a Green win (when will these people learn to read/think/be realistic?)...last time I check, the tories are also running their leader, also known as the premier.
	09/07/03	Gregory Elliott Laxton Email:
Prediction: Green. As a GPO Councillor and candidate for Trinity-Spadina, I can say that Frank De Jong is going to really surprise a lot of people here. I've been pushing exceptionally strong for the GPO to place a huge amount of emphasis on the need for electoral reform, and Frank is likely going to hammer all three of the parties on their lacklustre performance on this issue. I would give Frank the nod here simply because he's the leader of the newest, fastest-growing party in the province, and because of the momentum from B.C. and the extreme disillusionment with the traditional parties. I think a lot of people in this riding and the province would like to see the GPO leader take a seat in the parliament in order to show what the Greens are made of.
	04/06/03	WD Email:
Agreed re: Greens need the exposure a televised debate would give them. If the Tories are smart, they'll make the case that de Jong should join Howie, Dalton and Ernie on the podium. Better to split the anti-PC vote three ways than two. Dalton and Howie, however, would fight that move tooth and nail. If only Ernie had a close friend in the television business ... That said, now that Ipsos and SES are prompting for four parties in their surveys, the Greenies are at least getting mentioned between elections. This has helped their numbers out a bit.
	31/05/03	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Re de Jong (or the Ontario Greens at large), mind the following: however the Green Party does in a general election will hinge very heavily upon whether de Jong is allowed to join Eves, McGuinty and Hampton in the anticipated televised debate--if he appears as one of da playas, that'd make a world of difference (as the BC Greens showed in 2001). If not, then don't expect many Green candidates (even de Jong) to crest 5% and/or surpass the NDP...
	23/05/03	WD Email:
The addition of De Jong in this race adds a new wrinkle. Though his party is small, he's a veteran who can hold his own with the big boys (see his impressive performance under heavy socialist fire from Ruth Grier on Studio Two). However, he's gone off into wild tangents in the past, so its a question of which version of Frank will show up for this contest. The DPWG Greens are about as organized as Greens get and ought to be able to give this local boy some much-needed help. As well, the Green platform (a better way to live) is surprisingly strong and professional looking. De Jong will be flogging it, if he's smart. The only question is, where do the Greens get their support? Conventional wisdom is that they pull from the NDP (and that certainly seems to be the worry for Peter Kormos and Ruth Grier, given their public statements) but the Green platform emphasizes fiscal responsibility and supports hydro deregulation (Tory territory). Add to that the possibilty that potential Liberal voters will find the party's policies and DPWG Liberal candidate milquetoast and the fact that some 15% of voters list the environment as their top priority, and the conditions are right for a broad-based Green breakthrough in this riding. However, if it's looking like a close Liberal/PC vote, look for strategic voters to jump on the Liberal bandwagon. Prediction: Liberals: 40% Tories: 38% Greens: 15% NDP: 7%
	01/05/03	Craig Email:
Not even Premier Ernie Eves is going to survive the Red Machine's onslaught in the next election. He has been taking a lot of heat from every direction and the by-election was very close considering the circumstances. A strong candidate on local issues + clearly outgoing premier = no sense to keep him here. It will actually be quite embarrassing. Predicted results: LIB 51%, PC 34%, Green 9%, NDP 5%.
	31/03/03	Willem De Bruin Email: lutherraz@hotmail.com
Believe it or not, this is a tough one to call. On the one hand, the people of DPWG would be nuts to oust a sitting Premier ... especially one that's been doling out cash for things like bypasses and the like. On the other, if the political winds look like they're going to carry Eves away, then they'd be nuts to keep him. If he loses the next election, Flaherty will be leader of the opposition faster than you can say "tax cuts" and the people of DPWG will be left flapping in the breeze anyway. Unless the Tories start making back some ground soon, Eves isn't safe here. Not with a strong local candidate running for the Liberals and momentum tipping in their direction.
	23/03/03	K.Y Email:
Eves has screwed things up so badly,that he will beat himself,Yake has the guts to challenge the Premier on every issue,he also has the type of personality,that the the people of DPWG want,he may lack experience at the provincial level,but he doesn`t carry the baggage that Eves does.
	18/03/03	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Oilcan's greased-down margin of victory was more a signal of byelection skepticism than an broader ominous sign--at least, locally. It'll take more than a waffle and a Pink Panther to bring him down, now that he's ensconced. Though I wouldn't be horribly surprised if it's another less-than-50%er--albeit like in the byelection, NDP and Green and FCP could carry a lot of the anti-Ernie bulk. But hey, as long as he wins...
	25/01/03	M.S. Email:
Not much suspense in this one. Although we have seen Premier's lose their ridings in fairly recent memory, this is one of the safest seats for the Tories, which is why Ernie ran here in the first place instead of Mike Harris' old riding of Nipissing, which could swing Liberal. But here in DPWG, Ernie will walk away with it. The real interesting race here will be if the Tories lose government - will Ernie stay on as MPP or resign as leader and MPP and force a byelection within a year of the general election. And how will local voters respond to being forced into three elections within 3 years by Ernie Eves? We'll see.
	13/11/02	Andrew Cox Email:
PC win. Reasons. 1) Archtypical Tory base seat: rural and small town, wealthy as can be, ethnically hetrogenous. If it was any more Tory, they'd have to add "Simcoe" to the name. 2) Eves by-election showed some wobbly wheels on the Big Blue Machine. The Premier saw a 16,000 vote plurality whitled down to 3,500. A general election should improve that. 3) The Liberal candidate in the last election was himself a parachute: environmental activist John Matlow. They have nominated a local boy this time, Dan Yake. That might help, but it won't be enough.
	25/10/02	AL Email:
This is a very strong Tory riding, and if Eves runs here will be a sure Tory win, and even if he does not they will have a good chance of keeping this one!

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