Election Prediction Project
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Don Valley East

Last Update:
1:39 PM 29/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
20 October 2002

Political Profile:

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Liberal Party:
David Caplan
Progressive Conservative:
Paul Sutherland
New Democratic Party:
Murphy Browne
Green Party:
Dan Craig

David Caplan

Federal MP:
Hon. David Collenette

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

20993 50.5%

17955 43.19%

1822 4.38%

329 0.79%

153 0.37%

91 0.22%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality20 270
David Collenette
25 915 66.6%
Cecilia Fusco
5 645 14.5%
Kasra Nejatian
4 736 12.2%
Ron Casey-Nestor
2 249 5.8%

Demographic Profile:

(1996 census)


Avg Household Income

Labour Participation63.40%

Canadian Citizen

Canadian Born44.45%
Ontario Born37.48%
Visible Minority46.72%

First Language
Persian (Farsi)4575

Avg Dwelling Value$232655

College/Trade School23635

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28/09/03 -on a side note-
This is for sure no easy win for Caplan. Although, yes, the Tories are trailing the Liberals badly this elecion in the polls, there are many things going Sutherland's way. 1. Sutherland is very well liked, Caplan is not. 2. Murphy Browne, the NDP candidate is really appealing to minorites, for she stood on many Human Rights bills and has been an active member in the community. As well, there are a few people in this riding who are so uninformed and may vote for her just because her name is Murphey Browne, just like on TV! This may seem far fetched, but there are many people discontent with all the parties and may consider her just for this simple reason (a lot of protest votes may come her way) Eventhough it is likely Caplan will retain his seat, predictors may want to take these aspects in mind!
23/09/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
The reverse of Etobicoke Centre--instead of struggling for a candidate in a "safe" seat, the PCs scored a wet dream of a standard-bearer who ought to have been their best chance of a GTA gain, by far. Though at this point, the best Sutherland can hope for is to lose by a lesser margin than David Turnbull next door. And time to nurture a run for the 2006 Toronto mayoralty...
22/09/03 Will
Common sence tells me Caplan. He is part of a popular family and has been an MPP for quite a few years. Even so, many are discontent with Caplan's arrogance and Sutherland is an EXTREMELY popular city councillor. Many will simply vote for Sutherland because he is Sutherland. He is winning the lawn sign war as well. This area has usually gone Tory, and last time Dave Johnson lost it only due to the controvesy surrounding the education platform. As of now the Liberals look like they will retain it, but it shouldnt be a huge shocker if they don't!
21/09/03 Gerry Kennedy
The Sutherland campaign is well-funded but no sensible person believes Caplan will lose this riding when he beat Dave Johnson four years ago. But I don't think David will be happy when Dalton doesn't appoint him to cabinet. Maybe he'll run for Mommy's seat when Paul Martin dumps her?
12/09/03 B.G.C.
Email: 0bgc@qlink.queensu.ca
Driving through the riding today, I noticed that the Tories really seem to have the Liberals beaten in lawn signs. Driving through a couple of neighbourhoods off Leslie, I noticed that PC signs outnumbered Liberal signs by a good 3 to 1 margin. If people think this seat is a Liberal lock, maybe they should reconsider.
03/09/03 Andrew Cox
John Barber says Caplan is safe here, in Today's (Sept 3) Globe... "As for Don Valley East, few non-partisan observers give Tory candidate Paul Sutherland much chance of knocking off Liberal David Caplan.
03/09/03 Derek
Caplan unseated a popular cabinet minister last time out in an upset. He has gotten stronger since, and should easily win this seat in a walk.
24/06/03 PTLB
Email: pmacdougald@hotmail.com
Caplan has been distributing false rumours and putting fear into the hearts of DVE homeowners and voters by claiming that the Conservative are planning to install diesel generators in the Hydro corridors to augment power to the hydro grid in times of short supply. This is a blatant lie, as the PC have no such plan for diesel powered generators. Natural gas generators have been discussed for some areas of the province, but definitely not diesel. And NEITHER are planned for DVE. Just another example of dirty politics from the Caplan camp.
12/05/03 J.S.
Email: unclejoesayshello@yahoo.co.uk
If there was no movement towards the Grits this election, this seat would be under threat. A 7% majority is a technical marginal. BUT as the Grits look likely to make big gains, this seat is not under threat, if anything the Grit majority should go up.
22/04/03 Peter the Liberal Beater
Email: pmacdougald@hotmail.com
Other than throwing annual "skating parties", David Caplan has done absolutely nothing for the constituents and riding of DVE in the four years since he was elected. His claim to fame is that he is the Municipal Affairs critic, but even as a critic - especially a Liberal critic - he has been awfully quiet. Caplan was elected by riding on the coat-tails of his mother, Elinor's, name. When he loses his seat in the Ontario legislature he undoubtedly intends to follow her into Federal politics, by running for the Liberals after David Collenette vacates his seat for a plum patronage appoinment. I predict that Caplan will be easily defeated by Paul Sutherland, a local politician who has served his constituents, community and the City well during his tenure on both North York and Toronto Municipal Councils.
10/04/03 Andy Lehrer
According to the April 8 edition of the Toronto Star: "Rhea Sutherland, who was appointed to the Social Benefits Tribunal, is the wife of Paul Sutherland, a Tory candidate in the next election. Liberals say the position could net her up to $78,000 a year. During the committee meeting, Sutherland said she was asked to fax in her resume after chatting with Tory cabinet minister Frank Klees at a golf tournament for Toronto Mayor Mel Lastman." Paul Sutherland's wife getting a very cushy patronage appointment from the Tories is not going to help him very much in the election. If anything, it'll give voters disgusted by this sort of politics a reason to target Sutherland for attack.
25/03/03 El Predicto
A lot has changed since Paul Sutherland lost to Elinor Caplan in 1995. Sutherland is now a much stronger and more high profile candidate and he's not running against Elinor Caplan this time. David Caplan had massive support from a number of unions in 1999. He won't get this kind of help this time around. This makes him vulnerable to a strong Tory candidate who runs a good campaign. This is why the Tories will take this seat away from the Liberals.
21/03/03 Paul
I'm sorry, did someone not non-partisan say that we could look for Paul Sutherland in Cabinet? I suppose if you need a Minister of Not Learning Your Lesson, he's the guy. David Caplan has not had an easy campaign yet and has fought each campaign flat out. Nominating Paul Sutherland may have given local Tories a moment or two of excitement, but the Caplan's know how to campaign. My guess is that this keeps David Caplan focused, and becomes the next Caplan to send Sutherland from whence he came. Paul couldn't beat a Caplan in a Tory Sweep. He's not going to beat one with Eves' at the helm.
21/03/03 J. Reed
The Tories did very well in this riding in 1999. There best Minister, David Johnson, was unfortunately targeted and defeated. Truthfully speaking, they targeted the wrong man. The government really lost one of the best MPP's. Thankfully, Paul Sutherland will be running against Caplan. "The third time will be the charm in this case". While Paul did lose to Elinor and Dave did lose to D. Caplan, this will be the time when the Tories win. Paul is a solid and distinguished municipal representative who will help represent Toronto's needs at Queen's Park. It will be a close race but I give the edge to Councillor Sutherland.
20/03/03 Not Non Partisan
Tories will upset here in the battle of the families - they're going to the mattresses in North York. Paul Sutherland, the scion of the clan, is the son of two former North York Councillors - Bill and Betty - and has been the local Councillor himself since '85. Sutherland came very close to beating Mother Elinor Caplan in 95 in a short and kind-of lackidaisical campaign. This time he's serious. El's Son David Caplan did beat Dave Johnson in 1999. However Johnson, then Ed Minister was the target of teachers who came out in droves to help Caplan. He won't have them this time. Sutherland in a squeaker. Look for him in a new Tory Cabinet.
11/03/03 THE GAMBLER
The Gambler is putting his money on Paul Sutherland to win Don Valley East. This is the first of my exclusive upset specials. Dave Caplan has been resting on his laurels since knocking off Dave Johnson in 1999. Caplan has gotten slow and is ripe for the picking. Paul Sutherland from city council is just the guy to come up with the upset. You heard it here first.
10/03/03 A Cameron
Caplan has good organization and his vote could even increase with strong Liberal campaign. True there is no Johnson to dump this time, but, that means the PCs have no Cabinet Minister profile and resources, either.
16/02/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
A caveat: the Tories are still competitive in DVE, or at least they *should* be. Municipally, it's represented by Paul Sutherland (prov PC candidate, 1995) and Denzil Minnan-Wong (fed PC candidate, 1997), and the general ambience (at least, away from the high-rise zones) is one of suave 416-zone Evesburbia. But the defeat of Dave Johnson in '99 is the likely signature of PC doom for '03 as well. It'll be interesting, anyway, to see how the Grit and PC (and NDP, for that matter) cards fall in a less high-intensity DVE race; I wouldn't be surprised if David Caplan is safely reelected with a smaller % mandate than in '99...
18/10/02 I.M.
David Caplan and family have a strong electoral machine, they managed to beat Dave Johnson last time they should have no problem this time

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