Election Prediction Project
Ontario Provincial Election 2003


Last Update:
1:47 AM 22/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
25 October 2002

Political Profile:

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Liberal Party:
Tony Ruprecht
Progressive Conservative:
Tom Smith
New Democratic Party:
Jordan Berger
Green Party:
Mark O'Brien

Tony Ruprecht

Federal MP:
Hon. Charles Caccia

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

13649 49.72%

8717 31.76%

4346 15.83%

224 0.82%

174 0.63%

164 0.6%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality13 557
Charles Caccia
17 014 66.7%
Jordan Berger
3 457 13.6%
Anthony Montenegrino
2 021 7.9%
Eduardo Marcos
1 526 6%

Demographic Profile:

(1996 census)


Avg Household Income

Labour Participation62.10%

Canadian Citizen

Canadian Born39.63%
Ontario Born35.59%
Visible Minority30.08%

First Language

Avg Dwelling Value$188976

College/Trade School14985

Authorized by the CFO for the Davenport Provincial NDP Association
21/09/03 Gerry Kennedy
Hmmmm...I think Tony Ruprecht might win this one. It's really actually quite simple. He's been around forever and knocked off Tony Silipo last time. He's like furniture-he doesn't move. As an interesting footnote, Tory candidate Tom Smith, the youngest in the province, has a great number of PC Youth workers with him and will do better than expected. Watch out for this guy. He'll be running for PC leader sometime in the next, say, 50 years. Ruprect=56%/Berger=26%/Smith=15%/Others=3%
21/09/03 Dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
There will be no close race here...the time to defeat Ruprecht was last time when he was thrown into a redistributed riding with only partial incumbacy advantages...With Liberal fortunes soaring, I predict something like Liberal 70%, NDP 23%, PC 5% and Green 2% (the latter at best, this is not a "green" kind of riding...look to yuppyish neighbourhoods, the Beaches, Annex or Cabbagetown in Toronto or Centretown and the Glebe in Ottawa for areas that foster green votes)
20/09/03 Cosmonaut
It was reported today that Tony Ruprecht today accepted 7 donations from the House of Lanchester strip club and one donation from the owner of that club personally. One of Ruprecht's biggest issues has been getting rid of the strip clubs in the riding. What this means is goodbye Tony and Hello Jordan
13/09/03 Craig
This will be a close race that Tony Ruprecht should hold on to. The NDP are sure going to make a strong run here (even with a young candidate), but the Liberals having the incumbent factor will be the difference. There is no real strategic voting here as the Tories are not a factor at all in this low-income riding (they will likely end up in single digits) so people will be voting with their hearts. Current prediction: Ruprecht 47%, Berger 39%, (PC candidate) 6%, O'Brien 5%, others 3%.
12/09/03 Earl Ossington
I don't care much for Tony Ruprecht, but I think he's going to win here. Far from being a hotspot for "traditional NDP supporters" this is probably the most solidly ethnic, working-class district in Old Toronto. Ruprecht is a socially conservative Catholic, as are many of the riding's voters. Jordan Berger's a good guy, but I think it's a real uphill battle. My prediction: LIB 53%, NDP 38%, PC 7%, Others 2%
12/09/03 Ken Wood
Email: wulfram@sympatico.ca
In Davenport riding, the "sign wars" may be misleading. Witnessed Ruprecht supporters going house to house with a shopping cart full of signs and asking (in English) of non-English spreaking residents "Where do you want this". A shrug and another sign manifests. Signs are no guarantee those that have them will even bother to vote - or which way they will go. NDP still has a chance in this markedly low income poverty-stricken riding.
10/09/03 Tory in Dixie
Email: ericbucholz@hotmail.com
While provincial and federal trends have to be evaluated somewhat separately, in the case of Davenport the Liberal roots of the riding run very deep, having been represented in Ottawa by Charles Ciaccia since 1968. I would honestly not anticipate the riding changing now, if Silipio could not take over the riding in 99, then probably the best the NDP can do is second.
08/09/03 Mike
Ruprecht signs outnumber Berger signs literally 20-1. Give Ruprecht this much - he has been canvassing with a team every night and weekend for more than three years straight since 2000. Last time. he beat the hell out of the best possible NDP candidate in Tony Silipo. Monsterous Liberal/Ruprecht victory here.
28/05/03 Jay Bird
The Alejandra Bravo and Adam Giambrone campaigns for Toronto council will dovetail nicely with the NDP campaign here. There's a lot of unity and energy in the NDP camp. By contrast the local Liberals are in a turf war over the federal seat and the leadership and virtually anything else - and I understand there's not a lot of love for Mr. Ruprecht across the board. Divided they fall as the saying goes.
27/05/03 Craig
Liberal hold although narrow. The NDP is strong here and will pick up a lot of votes, but the Liberals will also pick up old Tory votes and that will be the difference, like in many ridings. The Tories have no chance and should fall into single digits, the NDP is strong but not strong enough unless they get back into the 20s in the polls. Predicted results: LIB 46%, NDP 38%, PC 8%, Green 3%.
15/05/03 Grizz
Uncle Grizz is warning all the NDP brothers, sisters, cousins, grandmas and grandpas not to get too optimistic here. We have a sitting Liberal and the Liberals look poised to take the government. No one in their right mind is going to oust Ruprecht, especially when you look at how well the Liberals did last time (polls say they'll do better this time). Yes the NDP have a showing here (more than the 7% or so the get in Scarborough or Etobicoke) but not enough to win. If the Liberals for the next government then maybe two elections from now...
17/03/03 AL
The editor writes: "3) We very much doubt that Ruprecht, fourth most senior member of the legislature, could be "ordered" to yeild to one of the most junior member." Our editor seems to have forgotten that when the number of ridings in Toronto shrank due to the adoption of the federal riding map, McGuinty's office tried to avoid having sitting Liberal MPs running against each other for nominations by assigning ridings. Gerard Kennedy, a runner up for leadership and a Liberal "star" was moved from York South Weston to the safer Parkdale-High Park and Ruprecht was forced to move next door to Davenport. True, he could have pulled a Castrilli and run against Kennedy for the nomination as Castrilli ran against Kwinter but he didn't. Before our editor "doubts" too much he or she should ask if Ruprecht would have volunteered to abandon his safe riding to move next door and run against an NDP incumbent in a riding which only covered a small portion of his old stomping grounds?
16/03/03 AL
Burke wrote: "Tony Ruphcret is locally well known and this riding has elected Liberals federally and provincially for well over a decade." Actually 1) Ruprecht is better known in next door Parkdale which he represented for twenty years until the Liberals ordered him to move to make room for golden boy Gerard Kennedy 2) No, the riding has not elected Liberals provincially "for well over a decade", NDPer Silipo represented Davenport until 1999.
Editor's Corrections:1) Silipo represented Dovercourt, not Davenport, between 90~99. 2) 36% of "Parkdale" was redistributed to Davenport, while 55% of "Dovercourt" was redistributed to Davenport. The riding also consists part of the old ridings of Oakwood and High Park. 3) We very much doubt that Ruprecht, fourth most senior member of the legislature, could be "ordered" to yeild to one of the most junior member.
16/03/03 AL
This was a difficult loss for the NDP this time and with the party on the rebound province wide it'll be their principal Toronto target for a gain - if the party picks up any new seats in Toronto, Davenport will be one of them. Add to the fact that Ruprecht lives out of riding and is an import from Parkdale, is in his 60s now and doesn't have the energy he used to have and is generally despised by his fellow Liberals and thus is unlikely to get much help from outside the riding.
16/03/03 Derek L.
Note to Ivan: I was referring specifically to "rightwing Eastern Europeans" as having played suspicious roles in WW2. I realize that there are plenty of leftwing and centrist Eastern Europeans as well who fought the good fight against Hitler! When Ruprecht was first elected in 1981 he defeated an NDP incumbent Jan Dukszta who was Polish! I'm told that it was the dirtiest campaign on record with Ruprecht spreading all kinds of rumours that his opponent was a child molester/abortionist/communist. But that was then and this is now. Anyways, I'm sorry if my off the cuff remark was taken the wrong way. Let's focus on what will happen in Davenport and not on who was or wasn't a concentration camp guard!
14/03/03 MF
If the NDP is going to pick up seats in Toronto, then Davenport is probably the place that seat will be picked up (Toronto/Rosedale is another possibility). Italian-Canadians are fairly well-represented in the riding but their presence is declining as the elderly die off and their children move out to the suburbs. Working-class Italian-Canadian voters - usually social conservatives but people who don't want the welfare state dismantled - are strong Liberal backers. Tony Ruprecht, one of the most right-wing (and unpopular) Liberals around, has support of older Italian and Eastern European voters, whose younger generations are increasingly located in the suburbs (and often voting Conservative). Jordan Berger has been campaigning actively for a long time, and Ruprecht seems to assume his reelection is inevitable. But if only one Liberal is vulnerable in Toronto, it's Ruprecht. The seemingly inferior candidate triumphed in the battle of the Tonys, but that was largely due to strategic voting. With strategic voting a non-issue this time around,a declining proportion of Italian and Eastern European voters, a growing presence of Blacks, Latinos and Filipinos are more responsive to the NDP, and traditional NDP backers moving into the riding, the NDP is very likely to win here.
15/03/03 Ivan
I simply can't believe that a twenty something will overtake a sitting liberal when an experienced, well respected top NDP was unable to do in 1999, especially when that same individual did so poorly in the recent federal election. NDP fortunes may be up but not by that much. As for the lack of activity in Ruprecht's constituency office. We all know that some MPP's use their office for purely partizan reasons, but especially when it's close to an election, many MPP's try to avoid having it look like the office is doubling as a campaign office. So I wouldn't put too much into that.
I need to take one brief moment to respond to Derek L's deeply offensive comments regarding eastern europeans and "God knows what they were up to in WW2". Can you honestly paint an entire group of people with fascism? There are 3.2 million Eastern Europeans in this country. Surely they are not all fascists. I'm surprised you didn't paint the Italians and Portuguese with the same colours. After all, they had quisling regimes. I appreciate your insight relating to elections, but I do not appreciate your commments that point towards racism.
13/03/03 Andrew L
1. I live above Ruprecht's constituency office, and what I'm NOT seeing is a lot of activity there. Is this foolhardiness or supreme confidence?
2. Will already-legendary young NDP organizers Burke Moffatt and Alejandra Bravo be working Davenport for Berger or are they too valuable to spare from central campaign? If the former, then Berger stands a chance, especially with Bravo's ability to counter his "Hi, I'm a Manga-Cake" negatives.
3. What's Adam Giambrone up to in the Provincial, and if he's working Davenport for Berger, is he a help or hindrance? On the one hand, the apple-cheeked Giambrone keeps getting taken out back behind the woodshed by the Libs on the municipal front, but on the other hand he also might help Berger connect with the Italian vote (huge in this riding).
4. Will Ruprecht have the able assistance of Cesar Palacio, Betty Disero's EA and expected replacement on City Council this fall? Make no mistake: Palacio is THE MAN with the Italian vote. A lot here depends on timing: if the Provincial happens this spring, then Palacio can combine working for Ruprecht with his own early electioneering. If it's a fall Provincial, then Palacio's going to be too busy on his own front.
05/03/03 Derek L.
I think the NDP is coming on strong in Toronto and if they win new seats anywhere this could be one of them. The strategic voting will be much lower this year than in 1999. Ther simply isn't as much hysteria to get rid of Ernie Eves that there was over Harris. As has been mentioned, more and more NDP type voters are moving into this riding. Ruprecht (who is just about the most UNpopular MPP at Queen's Park) has to deal with a base of support (ie: rightwing Eastern Europeans who were up to God knows what during WW2) who are dropping like flies from old age. I'm sure that each and every day about a dozen of his core supporters are in the obits of the Star.
03/03/03 Andrew L.
Look at the high numbers of Portuguese and Italian in Davenport. If the NDP couldn't take out Ruprecht with Silipo, they're going to have an even harder time with Jordan Berger. Also remember that Berger ran for the NDP in Davenport in the last federal election. The result? He got 18%. That's a far cry from Silipo's 32%. Okay, so federal numbers don't translate perfectly to provincial, but the NDP is still looking at having to double their federal support to stand a chance. Tough mountain to climb.
27/02/03 Andy
Email: andyk8123@hotmail.com
Sorry to all the people who believe the NDP will take Davenport, but it is not going to happen, last election Tony Ruprecht easily bested Tony Silipo who was at the time the Deputy Leader of the Party, and the party's Finance critic. Now he is taking on Jordan Berger who has not ever sat as a MPP. And the only he ran for the NDP he got 13% in the federal election, all right federal is different from provincial. However unless the NDP gets in the mid thirties in the polls this riding will remain Liberal. My prediction Ruprecht wins by about the same he got last time, maybe a tiny bit more.
04/02/03 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
The Star on Feb 1 looked at this campaign. Jordan Berger has been running hard for months. The riding has changed with many traditional NDP voters buying homes in the riding. There is a large tenant population which is attracted to the rent control issue. Change is in the air with Liberal voters having sold their houses and moved on and sold their houses to people who are traditional NDP voters. This riding will NDP. It is at least in play and is no longer a safe liberal seat.
04/02/03 QC
Jordan Berger is likely to run a very strong campaign and if the NDP can keep its province-wide numbers in the 20-22% range, then he has a better than even chance of finally unseating Ruprecht. The ascension of a Toronto-based leader in the federal NDP will help as well, especially if the election is called for the spring while Layton's honeymoon is still in effect.
30/01/03 JJ
Jordan Berger's running again? Good guy. I can see him, Adam Giambrone, and... a resurrected Tony S? somebody new? representing the D-Port on the Brighter Ideas tickets at all three levels of government. Just not sure I can see it *yet*.
11/01/03 SM
I guess if half truths are DH's way of passing judgement, then not only will Davenport be an easy win for the Liberals (80? No, 90%), but expect a Liberal majority government, too! Here's the methodology for the Environics poll:
The above results are based on two waves of fieldwork. The first wave was conducted by telephone between October 10 and 30, 2002 among a probability sample of 1,000 adult residents of Ontario (aged 18 or older). This sample, which was stratified by region and by community size, is estimated to be accurate within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The second wave consisted of callbacks to 400 respondents from the first wave of the survey. The 400 callbacks were conducted November 22 to 24, in order to update responses to specific questions after the Ontario government's announcements regarding the province's electricity system, made the week of November 11. The margin of error for a sample of 400 is approximately plus or minus five percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The question wording was the same for both waves: Thinking of your own local riding, if a provincial election were held in Ontario today, would you vote for the candidate of the ... [READ AND ROTATE] Liberal Party ... New Democratic Party ... Progressive Conservative Party? Would you say that at the present time you are at least leaning or slightly favourable to one of the parties or candidates in your riding?
16/12/02 DH
I hate to break your heart, but this riding is not going NDP. Its just not. Tony Silipo was a fantastic candidate - deputy leader, former high-profile minister, strong community roots, and an incumbent - and he lost. Pretty badly, too. 18% is a very wide margin.Oh, and that 22% for the NDP in an Environics poll you keep mentioning is bogus. Its based on 400 call-backs who expressed concern about Hydro in an earlier survey.
05/12/02 SM
This isn't the federal scene- The Liberals are far from a lock on this riding, and the provincial organization has been very week in terms of performance lately, where the NDP have been working on an ever growing list of "I told you so's". The NDP also seem to be near a mini-skyrocket in support, since they've gone up from 18% to 22% in the last month alone according to Environics (granted, it's still within the margin of error).
26/11/02 ATGS
Jordan Berger of the NDP is sure to run a strong campaign, and with the NDP rising in the polls could threaten to win this seat. A strong central campaign will push this seat into the orange.
16/11/02 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Tony Ruprecht's the devil to run against--and the NDP's Tony Silipo, who went into the '99 race with what appeared as the stronger credentials, found this out the hard way. In fact, provided that Charles Caccia retires and Jack Layton becomes federal NDP leader, Davenport could conceivably go New Democrat sooner *federally* than provincially...
23/10/02 Burke
The Liberals will hang on to Davenport. This riding rejected the strong NDP alternative in 1999 and there is no reason to think that has changed. Tony Ruphcret is locally well known and this riding has elected Liberals federally and provincially for well over a decade. I expect this will be held by the Liberals

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