Election Prediction Project
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Chatham-Kent Essex

Last Update:
3:44 PM 26/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
30 October 2002

Political Profile:

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Liberal Party:
Pat Hoy
Progressive Conservative:
Dave Wilkinson
New Democratic Party:
Derry McKeever
Green Party:
Jim Burgess

Pat Hoy

Federal MP:
Jerry Pickard

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

24239 56.04%

16238 37.54%

2316 5.35%

462 1.07%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality7 128
Jerry Pickard
20 085 49.7%
Sean Smart
12 957 32.1%
Ryan Bailey
4 156 10.3%
Susan MacKay
2 209 5.5%

Demographic Profile:

(1996 census)


Avg Household Income

Labour Participation65.90%

Canadian Citizen

Canadian Born84.74%
Ontario Born79.85%
Visible Minority4.48%

First Language

Avg Dwelling Value$125748

College/Trade School22535

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25/09/03 BJC
People who indicate Liberals will be destroyed in this riding have no idea what this riding or the Liberal candidate are all about. Pat Hoy won during the common-non-sense revolution and the '99 election Pat Hoy is a good man who has stated repeatedly he is pro-life. Pat Hoy is a "gentleman farmer" in a rural setting full of farmers. Pat Hoy succesfully navigated and defended the gun licence issue when people actually got organized to oppose the gun licence issue. Pat Hoy's son is a teacher in Toronto and has the support of local teachers. Pat Hoy is a family man, married with two children. Pat Hoy is a winner. Pat Hoy will be the MPP for this riding until he either dies of old age with his cowboy boots on, standing up or when he choses to retire. This man will not be defeated by the Tories.
21/09/03 The Big Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
I must reply to the previous postings saying that the "Liberals will be destroyed" due to the gay marriage issue and gun registry and the like. Very good point in that many people do not dissociate federal and provincial politics and is the reason why the Ontario Liberals asked the feds to cool it on the gay marriage thing till after the election. Key thing to remember though is that despite this riding looking (in theory)like a potential Tory steal, Hoy is VERY popular and the Liberals are way ahead in the polls. If the Torys catch up with the Liberals then I would tend to agree that the PC are likely to steal, but as of now, I definitly would not bet the farm. As for the PC taking this in the next federal election; not a chance if Paul Martin is PM and the PC/CA are still split.
20/09/03 Bubba
Email: jordanbuddy2002@yahoo.ca
The previous writer is no doubt quite correct about the gun issue, however it didn't hurt the federal MP in his election, and there is nothing to indicate it will negatively impact Hoy. People with or without guns still have no doctor. I predict another Hoy victory, as he seems to be on the right side of vital local issues, doctor shortages, rural school closings and job growth. The Tory candidate is underwhelming at best. The NDP has no presence whatsoever, not even a sign anywhere. Hoy was elected twice in the face of Tory majority governments, if the Libs are heading into power, look for Hoy to win big.
10/09/03 Juan Banger
I believe the Liberals will be destroyed in this riding. A lot of pick-up trucks with stickers stating "Jean Chretien does not speak for this Canadian". Jean Chretien = LIBERAL. As with most Canadian mugwumps(unlike us political junkies), provincial and federal politics are one in the same and hard to decipher for many in the rural ridings. Along with Marcel Beaubien's Lambton-Kent-Middlesex riding, there's a strong sect of society against gay marriage, the gun registry...pretty much anti-Liberal boondoggle country. I predict this riding to go PC in the next fed election as well.
05/07/03 Emerson Cavanagh
Email: emocavanagh@hotmail.com
Hoy is certainly the favourite BUT a number of factors are different in this election and this will not be the landslide victory some may think. In Hoy's previous wins he was the underdog and there was a disliked incumbant. With the Liberals high in the polls and Hoy being popular, there won't be the urgency to support financially, volunteer to work for, and get out and vote for him. I expect some vote loss there. As well, in the last election big labour talked about strategic voting... voting for whoever had the best chance to beat a Tory. With Hoy the favourite, this will not happen this time. Derry McKeever, the NDP candidate will take some votes. He's well known in labour circles and will have a lot of workers. He's an experienced labour leader and former federal candidate. He ran a good race but didn't get many votes. The good news for Hoy is McKeever will come in second to Hoy in speaking, debating, knowlege of the issues etc. which leaves only a distant third place for Tory Wilkinson. Soft Tory votes will be attracted to Hoy not to the NDP. Hoy's win over Tory incumbent Jack Carroll is even more impressive when you consider the Tories out spent the Liberals 2 to 1. The governing party has a huge advantage in fundraising and will outspend the Liberals despite the fact the Liberals have been most successfull raising money lately. The Hoy campaign has been frugal and effective but must come up with more bucks this time because the volunteers may be complacent this time and the Tories may be more effective in their spending. They have a huge war chest and the money will do no good if it isn't spent. Expect Hoy to win but not by as many votes as last time.
31/05/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Trouble with the Leamington/Mersea "Liberal stronghold" theory is that 1999 *already* levelled the electoral playing field--the results in Leamington/Mersea turned out to be not much different from the CKE mean (and indeed, rural Mersea was already noticably better-than-average for PC). Meanwhile, the sole "home turf" maintained by the PCs' Jack Carroll--the (former) city of Chatham--tipped no less solidly toward Hoy and the Liberals. So I'd be cautious about "geographic advantage" here...
19/05/03 Chris Warden
Email: DeltaEast@aol.com
You must take into account three things when predicting the outcome in this riding:
1) The redistricting in the late 90s resulted in Leamington/Mersea Township (pop. 25,100), with is traditionally strong ethnic voter turnout in favour of the Liberals (Italians seem unable to forget the federal Liberal pro-immigration policies of the first half of this century), to be grouped with Chatham-Kent County. Chatham-Kent with its more indifferent feelings toward voting by tradition resulted in the ethnic vote making Carroll's defeat in 1999 so dramatic. 2) Understanding the first point brings us to the second point. Wilkinson is a popular mayor of Leamington. Additionally, his strong business connections into Leamington's ethnic community will most likely swing a huge chunk of this voting bloc into the PC's favour. 3) Hoy is uninspiring at best--with enough door knocking and farm show appearances Wilkinson could make this race very tight in the Chatham-Kent portion of the riding.
My impressions lead me to believe that it will be tight but expect the PC to come out ahead by 1,000 votes.
16/05/03 Craig
A mostly rural riding in economic trouble due to the withdrawal of the auto sector and agricultural issues - setting up for a Liberal romp. The 38% for the Tories in 1999 is going to evaporate and the NDP are not nearly strong enough here to contend, although they will make gains. Pat Hoy is very safe, he could be either Minister of Agriculture or Minister of Enterprise and Innovation (with the help of the auto sector) in a Liberal government. Predicted results: LIB 64%, NDP 17%, PC 15%, Green 3%.
12/05/03 Grizz
Living in the area I keep hearing how this riding is in some economic trouble. Do you think the voters are going to blame their MPP who currently sits in opposition? NO. They will blame the government and will surely re-elect their Liberal MPP in the hopes the Liberals will form the government and make their lives a little better.
23/03/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Long in the SW Ontario's slow-growing/declining economic lower echelons, the Chatham-Kent area is a far cry from Darcy McKeough's days, which makes it as sure a bet for a non-Tory like Pat Hoy now as it was in 1999. Paradoxically, the same backwater dynamics probably led to augmented federal Alliance strength in 2000--and it's also likely to allow the NDP to rebound somewhat (but not necessarily *too* much) from its squeezeplayed 1999 nadir. Who knows, that might also lead to Hoy more than doubling the vote of his nearest competitor. He ain't goin'.
22/01/03 Andrew Cox
Liberal Hold. Reasons: 1) The last election saw Tory incumbent Jack Carroll mowed down by Grit incumbent Pat Hoy in one of the MPP vs MPP battles that were so interesting last time. If a Tory incumbent in a Harris majority win couldn't keep Hoy from a majority, who can? 2) Well, it won't be Dave Wilkinson. The mayor of Leamington comes from the small Essex county portion of a riding made up mostly of the city of Chatham and the rural area south of it. Had the Tories found someone who could move serious vote in Chatham-Kent, they could have had an outside shot. But Leamington is a very small portion of the riding, and the rest will be a replay of 1999. 3) Adding to the misery for the PCs is the closure of the Navistar truck plant in Chatham. 2,200 people laid off as the plant moved to Mexico. A lot of fingers got pointed at both levels of government for not doing enough to keep the company here, and the PCs get to be the first before the firing squad. 4) Just to ! put Hoy's victory into focus, he won by 4,000 votes MORE than the federal Liberal MP.
28/10/02 jcw
Pat Hoy defeated incumbant Tory Jack Carroll by a large majority in 1999, there's no reason that I can see that he won't sweep it again.

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