Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Shipley

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Christopher M. Leslie
Conservative Party:
David M. Senior
Liberal Democratic Party:
Helen Wright
Green Party:
Martin Love
UK Independence Party:
John Nunn

Incumbent:
Christopher Leslie

97 Result:
Christopher Leslie
22,96243.4%
Marcus Fox
19,96637.8%
John Cole
7,98415.1%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
52,87276.32%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
16,08128.5%
28,46350.4%
11,28820.0%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
56,51281.2%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1620.0%
16-2411.8%
25-3920.6%
40-6527.8%
65 <19.8%

Ethnic Origin:
White96.7%
Black0.4%
Indian/Pakistani2.3%
Other non-white0.6%

Employment:
Full Time64.7%
Part Time17.2%
Self Employed10.9%
Government Schemes1.1%
Unemployed6.1%

Household SEG:
I - Professional8.1%
II - Managerial/Technical38.8%
III - Skilled (non-manual)15.5%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)23.2%
IV - Partly Skilled9.9%
V - Unskilled3.2%

Misc:
Own Residence77.7%
Rent Residence21.2%
Own Car(s)68.9%
Submissions
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22/04/01 DH Email:
A Tory gain - the Conservatives are now the largest group on Bradford council and education is a red hot issue here. Labour have only held Shipley once before in the 1945 post-War landslide, and though 1997 saw them gain the seat surely they will not hold on this time.
29/04/01 CM Email:
I agree with DH - this is a likely Tory gain. It was one of the shock gains for Labour in 1997, but since then the Tories have been comfortably ahead in local elections - taking control of the local council - and led by 20% in the Euro elections.
22/05/01 Alastair Matlock Email:
Prior to 1997, this seat was held by Conservative Sir Marcus Fox, chair of the powerful 1922 committee of Conservative backbenchers. It was quite a shock to me that Sir Marcus was defeated here then, and I would be surprised again if the Tories failed to regain this traditional Conservative seat.
23/05/01 JR Email:
When the Tories announced they were going to appeal to the 'Pebbledash People' (middle income voters in three bedroomed semidetached houses in the suburbs) the Guardian sent a reporter up to an avenue in Shipley full of such residences. For what its worth they found very little support for the Tories. Chris Leslie - who was only 24 years old when he knocked out prominent Tory Backbencher Sir Marcus Fox - is said to be pessimistic about his chances but I think he could well win.
05/06/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
If only general elections were held on New Year's--here's a 1997 tableau that resembled Father Time being sent off by his young diapered successor. Now, the top Tory target of the lot in West Yorks, by far.

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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