Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Colne Valley

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Kali C.J. Mountford
Conservative Party:
Philip Davies
Liberal Democratic Party:
Gordon J. Beever
Green Party:
Richard Plunkett
UK Independence Party:
Dr. Quarmby

Incumbent:
Ms Kali Mountford

97 Result:
Kali Mountford
23,28541.3%
Graham Riddick
18,44532.7%
Nigel Priestley
12,75522.6%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
56,41176.92%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
17,57929.8%
24,80442.0%
15,95327.0%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
59,05681.0%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1620.2%
16-2412.5%
25-3922.1%
40-6527.1%
65 <18.1%

Ethnic Origin:
White94.4%
Black1.2%
Indian/Pakistani3.7%
Other non-white0.7%

Employment:
Full Time63.8%
Part Time16.4%
Self Employed11.6%
Government Schemes1.4%
Unemployed6.8%

Household SEG:
I - Professional7.1%
II - Managerial/Technical33.1%
III - Skilled (non-manual)11.4%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)29.6%
IV - Partly Skilled13.1%
V - Unskilled4.0%

Misc:
Own Residence79.2%
Rent Residence19.9%
Own Car(s)67.8%
Submissions
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17/05/01 JR Email:
This was recently featured on BBC2's Newsnight programme as a socially polarised marginal seat where differential turnout could play an important role in determining the outcome. The Tories would most likely be the beneficiaries and they won't be hindered this time by the presence of Graham Riddick, the Tory MP for this seat who was embroiled in a 'cash for questions' scandal in 1994. This is however not a simple Lab-Con marginal. The LibDems managed 13000 votes in '97 even in the face of a major tactical squeeze from Labour, and for many years the seat had a Liberal MP (Richard Wainwright from 1966 to 1970 and later from 1974 to 1987). During the 60s and 70s it was a rare example of a Lib-Lab marginal. The LibDems have benefitted much more than the Tories from Labour's difficulties in local elections, bagging a large number of gains on the local Kirklees Borough Council in May 2000.

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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