Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Torfaen

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Rt. Hon. Paul P. Murphy
 Conservative Party:
Jason Evans
 Liberal Democratic Party:
Alan Masters
Plaid Cymru:
 UK Independence Party:
Roger Macateer
Socialist Alliance:
Steven Bell

Incumbent:
 Rt Hon Paul Murphy

97 Result:
 Paul Murphy
29,86369.1%
 Neil Parish
5,32712.3%
 Jean Gray
5,24912.1%
 Robert Gough
10422.41%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
43,24571.67%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
30,35264.1%
9,59820.3%
6,17813.1%
1,2102.6%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
47,33876.7%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1621.9%
16-2412.9%
25-3921.9%
40-6525.9%
65 <17.4%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.3%
Black0.1%
Indian/Pakistani0.2%
Other non-white0.4%

Employment:
Full Time63.7%
Part Time15.1%
Self Employed7.7%
Government Schemes2.3%
Unemployed11.2%

Household SEG:
I - Professional4.4%
II - Managerial/Technical22.0%
III - Skilled (non-manual)12.1%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)32.9%
IV - Partly Skilled17.6%
V - Unskilled7.0%

Misc:
Own Residence59.6%
Rent Residence39.4%
Own Car(s)65.1%
Submissions
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24/04/01 JR Email:
Chris Ruane won an unexpectedly easy victory in this marginal seat which was one of the two new seats allocated to Wales in the last boundary change. The main towns are the seaside resorts of Rhyl and Prestatyn, which have fallen on hard times of late, like many seaside towns becoming known as the Costa del Dole. Whether they feel Labour has done enough to turn things round remains to be seen; local elections as in so much of Wales are not a good indicator as most parties don't field a full slate and there are many nonpartisan independent councillors. Ruane should hold on- he has strong local roots whereas the Tories have chosen a carpetbagger who fought Hazel Grove in Manchester last time.
 18/05/01 PSR Email:
I think that JR has put his comment in the wrong place. Torfaen is the rock-solid safe saet of the Welsh Secretary, Paul Murphy.
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Last Updated 20 May 2001
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