Election Prediction Project
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British General Election
Clwyd West

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Gareth Thomas
Conservative Party:
Timothy D.R. James
Liberal Democratic Party:
Robina Feeley
Plaid Cymru:
Elfed Williams

Incumbent:
Gareth Thomas

97 Result:
Gareth Thomas
14,91837.1%
Roderick Richards
13,07032.5%
Gwyn Williams
5,15112.8%
Eryl Williams
542113.47%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
40,25775.29%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
12,81930.9%
20,13248.5%
6,52615.7%
1,9064.6%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
41,53477.2%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1618.0%
16-2410.8%
25-3917.7%
40-6526.8%
65 <26.8%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.4%
Black0.1%
Indian/Pakistani0.1%
Other non-white0.4%

Employment:
Full Time54.0%
Part Time16.2%
Self Employed20.1%
Government Schemes1.6%
Unemployed8.1%

Household SEG:
I - Professional5.4%
II - Managerial/Technical37.5%
III - Skilled (non-manual)12.2%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)24.3%
IV - Partly Skilled13.5%
V - Unskilled5.0%

Misc:
Own Residence75.9%
Rent Residence22.2%
Own Car(s)73.9%
Submissions
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24/04/01 JR Email:robertsat13@cwcom.net
This is a long-time Tory seat, held first by Geraint Morgan, then by 'dripping-wet' left-leaning Tory Sir Anthony Meyer (who stood as a 'stalking horse' leadership challenger in 1989, a year before her eventual downfall). Its most recent MP, from 1992 to 1997, was Rod Richards, an abrasive and combustible rightwinger who became a Minister in record speed thanks to the sparsity of Welsh Tory MPs. Family values campaigner Richards had to resign from the Government after the very public breakup of his marriage in 1995. Richards unexpectedly lost in 97 but was elected Tory leader for the Assembly election. At a time Labour were collapsing in much of Wales he managed to lose this very soft target again. He since faced (and was cleared of) GBH charges for attacking a young woman he was dating. The Tories have had enough sense not to reselect Richards, but opted for a carpetbagger from outside Wales - Jimmy James, who was the sacrificial lamb in the 1996 South Staffordshire byelection, losing a strong Tory seat on a record swing. There are dangers for Gareth Thomas too - much of this seat is rural and North Wales farmers are some of the most militant around, starting the fuel blockades last September. Plaid Cymru could be the surprise factor in this election, they turned this into a three way marginal in the 1999 Assembly race.
07/05/01 Pseudonym 'Disraeli' Email:
This constituency will act as a litmus test of any Conservative revival in Wales; although won by Labour in 1997 it was only won by a narrow majority in an election that saw a huge swing towards Labour. It is possible that the constituency could once again turn Tory. If not, it spells doom for any hopes of Conservative-held constituencies in North Wales in 2001.
31/05/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
Welsh Tories--bah! Except maybe for Monmouth--which ain't *reeeeeallly* Welsh, ya know--who needs'em anymore? I'll still withhold a prediction here, though it's showing signs of clearing into a Labour-relected-by-default situation...

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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