Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Brecon and Radnorshire

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
I. Huw Irranca-Davis
Conservative Party:
Felix F.E. Aubel
Liberal Democratic Party:
Roger Williams
Plaid Cymru:
David Diprose
UK Independence Party:
Elizabeth Phillips

Incumbent:
Richard Livsey CBE

97 Result:
Christopher Mann
11,42426.6%
Jonathan Evans
12,41929.0%
Richard Livsey
17,51640.8%
Steve Cornilus
6221.45%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
42,88182.24%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
11,63426.3%
15,97736.1%
15,84735.8%
4180.9%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
44,26984.3%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1619.0%
16-2411.0%
25-3918.8%
40-6528.3%
65 <23.0%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.4%
Black0.1%
Indian/Pakistani0.0%
Other non-white0.5%

Employment:
Full Time53.0%
Part Time14.4%
Self Employed25.0%
Government Schemes1.3%
Unemployed6.3%

Household SEG:
I - Professional5.2%
II - Managerial/Technical37.2%
III - Skilled (non-manual)12.4%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)25.0%
IV - Partly Skilled12.4%
V - Unskilled5.3%

Misc:
Own Residence69.9%
Rent Residence26.0%
Own Car(s)77.5%
Submissions
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21/04/01 JR Email:robertsat13@cwcom.net
Too close to call, as always. Richard Livsey won a 1985 byelection by 400 votes, was reelected in 1987 by 56 (jointly the smallest majority in the country, along with Mansfield) and lost by 130 in 1992. He returned in 1997, but by a less than landslide 5000 votes in a year of Tory collapse. Livsey is retiring, and although they won it with a new, young candidate in the Assembly election (new Welsh Tory leader Nick Bourne was Conservative candidate)this one could well go Tory. Labour held the seat until 1979 but I think their time is past in this rural constituency.
01/05/01 Pete Roberts Email:
Two Lib Dem newspapers and one from the Conservatives this year here in the north of the constituency. The former about local and national issues and the latter looking very generic. Nothing at all from Labour. Same story from friends further south. Looks to me that the fight will be Conservative Lib Dem again with the vote depandant as much on turnout as anything else

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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