Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Tewkesbury

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Keir Dhillon
Conservative Party:
Laurence A. Robertson
Liberal Democratic Party:
Stephen Martin

Incumbent:
Lawrence Robertson

97 Result:
Peter Lightfoot
13,66526.2%
Laurence Robertson
23,85945.8%
John Sewell
14,62528.0%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
52,14976.46%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
5,29710.1%
28,30053.8%
18,50335.2%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
52,58882.0%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1619.2%
16-2411.8%
25-3920.7%
40-6528.8%
65 <19.6%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.2%
Black0.2%
Indian/Pakistani0.3%
Other non-white0.4%

Employment:
Full Time66.0%
Part Time16.5%
Self Employed11.6%
Government Schemes0.6%
Unemployed5.2%

Household SEG:
I - Professional8.7%
II - Managerial/Technical35.2%
III - Skilled (non-manual)15.0%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)22.5%
IV - Partly Skilled12.9%
V - Unskilled2.7%

Misc:
Own Residence78.5%
Rent Residence18.9%
Own Car(s)81.0%
Submissions
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23/04/01 NG Email:
Tewkesbury was one of those constitutencies where the Lib Dems should, theoretically, have given the Tories a run for their money in 1997. But instead their vote dropped and they nearly surrendered second place to Labour. Unless one of the two centre-left parties can secure a big tactical switch from the other this time round, Lawrence Robertson is likely to hang on comfortably.
30/05/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
Past profile suggests a Conservative hold. However, it could be of interest to note the effect Laurence Robertson's agreement w/John Townend's "mongrel race" statements might have on his electability, or how his opponents are seizing upon that hot potato. Or if, in the unfortunate way that affects certain politicians who "speak their mind", loose lips actually *improved* Robertson's chances...(possibly significant note: the Tory vote drop in Tewkesbury was below-average by 1997 standards)

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Last Updated 30 May 2001
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