Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
North Devon

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Vivienne Gale
Conservative Party:
Clive Allen
Liberal Democratic Party:
Nicholas B. Harvey
Green Party:
Joanne Bell
UK Independence Party:
Roger M. Knapman

Incumbent:
Nick Harvey

97 Result:
Eithne Brenton
5,3679.8%
Richard Ashworth
21,64339.5%
Nick Harvey
27,82450.7%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
54,83477.94%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
3,4065.9%
26,59645.7%
27,38947.1%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
58,15583.0%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1618.6%
16-2411.5%
25-3918.9%
40-6528.2%
65 <22.7%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.5%
Black0.1%
Indian/Pakistani0.1%
Other non-white0.3%

Employment:
Full Time52.7%
Part Time16.5%
Self Employed21.6%
Government Schemes1.3%
Unemployed7.9%

Household SEG:
I - Professional4.6%
II - Managerial/Technical32.8%
III - Skilled (non-manual)10.7%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)27.6%
IV - Partly Skilled15.7%
V - Unskilled4.8%

Misc:
Own Residence74.1%
Rent Residence22.5%
Own Car(s)75.7%
Submissions
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23/04/01 NG Email:
Nick Harvey should escape even quite a large swing back to the Tories despite a poor showing for the Lib Dems in the 1999 Euro elections. Harvey's slightly eurosceptic stance should win him some points locally and his reasonably hefty majority should seem him through into the next parliament.
05/05/01 TB Email:
NG has his facts wrong about Nick Harvey. The incumbent MP was the only LD eurosceptic but did a u-turn on Europe while testing the water for a leadership bid. This has gone down extremely badly in a very sceptical area. The involvement of Roger Knapman an ex-Tory MP as the UKIP candidate could however mudy the waters.
12/05/01 NS Email:
Tim Bonner, the Tory candidate in Truro and St Austell who lives in North Devon, is obviously keen to keep his anonimity (TB). He does, of course, have an axe to grind with Nick Harvey, an incredibly populr MP whoe will comfortably hold his seat.
Editor's Note: This is pure speculation. We cannot and will not verify whether TB is in fact Mr. Bonner.
05/06/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
A reluctant sort of recent-historical hallowed ground for the Liberal Democrats, as it was perkily synonymous with onetime Liberal leader Jeremy Thorpe for many years. But Nick Harvey has built enough of a distinctive profile on his own to make one forget Thorpe's unseemly political end. Good show.

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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