Election Profile:
Candidates:
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Labour Party:
Stephen Wyeth |
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Conservative Party:
Andrew Hayes |
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Liberal Democratic Party:
Mark Oaten |
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UK Independence Party:
Joan Martin |
Incumbent: |
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Mark Oaten |
97 Result: |
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Patrick Davies
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Gerry Malone
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Mark Oaten
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| Total Vote Count / Turnout |
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92 Result: (Redistributed) |
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| Total Vote Count / Turnout |
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Demographic Profile:
| Age: |
| < 16 | 18.8% |
| 16-24 | 12.4% |
| 25-39 | 19.5% |
| 40-65 | 29.5% |
| 65 < | 19.9% |
Ethnic Origin: |
| White | 99.0% |
| Black | 0.2% |
| Indian/Pakistani | 0.2% |
| Other non-white | 0.6% |
Employment: |
| Full Time | 62.7% |
| Part Time | 17.1% |
| Self Employed | 14.4% |
| Government Schemes | 0.7% |
| Unemployed | 5.0% |
Household SEG: |
| I - Professional | 12.8% |
| II - Managerial/Technical | 40.9% |
| III - Skilled (non-manual) | 11.3% |
| IIIM - Skilled (manual) | 17.7% |
| IV - Partly Skilled | 10.3% |
| V - Unskilled | 3.1% |
Misc: |
| Own Residence | 69.3% |
| Rent Residence | 25.3% |
| Own Car(s) | 80.5% |
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Submissions
Submit Information here
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12/04/01 |
NG |
Email: |
| If there seemed any seat likely to fall back safely into Tory hands at a 2001 Election it was Winchester which after a night of high drama, fell to the Liberal Democrats with a miniscule majority of just two votes. But that was before Mark Oaten's triumphant by-election victory in late 1997 when he romped home (albeit against an unpopular local Conservative candidate) with a massive 21,000 majority (thereby - and quite ironically - making Winchester one of the Lib Dem's safest seats in the country!). A sensational by-election win was marred slightly by a poor result in the 99 Euro election but Mr Oaten's chances have been boosted by an extremely strong local presence (the Lib Dems locally have actually gained seats in the last few years and are very strong in the region with Lib Dem MPs in neighbouring seats and a swathe of Lib Dem councillors). Mark Oaten could still come unstuck and it is possible that his by-election was a one-off success, but it seems likely, all the same, that Mark Oaten - the MP with the smallest majority in the Commons - will still be there after the next election. |
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22/05/01 |
Alastair Matlock |
Email: |
| Winchester is the most vulnerable LibDem seat in the country with Oaten holding a majority of less than ten votes. I will be close, in all likelihood, but I forecast a Tory gain. |
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24/05/01 |
Alex Macfie |
Email:alex@flagboy.demon.co.uk |
| The particularly large LD majority at the by-election is likely to have been due to protest voting against the Tory candidate for forcing what was widely seen as an unnecessay election. This is unlikely to be repeated at the general election. The Labour vote, however, was squeezed until the pips squeaked. This tactical vote probably will be carried forward. Probably a LibDem hold, then, but with a greatly reduced majority. |
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