Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Portsmouth South

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Graham Heaney
Conservative Party:
Philip Warr
Liberal Democratic Party:
Michael T. Hancock
UK Independence Party:
Michael Tarrant
Socialist Alliance:
John Molyneux

Incumbent:
Mike Hancock

97 Result:
Alan Burnett
13,08625.3%
David Martin
16,09431.1%
Mike Hancock
20,42139.5%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
51,69564.21%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
7,85714.6%
22,79842.5%
22,55642.0%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
53,65169.4%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1617.2%
16-2415.0%
25-3923.7%
40-6522.3%
65 <21.9%

Ethnic Origin:
White96.5%
Black0.6%
Indian/Pakistani1.6%
Other non-white1.4%

Employment:
Full Time64.4%
Part Time13.4%
Self Employed9.5%
Government Schemes1.1%
Unemployed11.6%

Household SEG:
I - Professional6.0%
II - Managerial/Technical27.6%
III - Skilled (non-manual)14.4%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)22.6%
IV - Partly Skilled14.7%
V - Unskilled6.3%

Misc:
Own Residence61.9%
Rent Residence36.1%
Own Car(s)55.0%
Submissions
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19/04/01 NG Email:
The Lib Dems were only narrowly denied Portsmouth South in 1992 and despite a surge in the Labour vote and a drop in their own, they went on to win with a reasonable majority in 1997. They will face a struggle holding on to it but with a big Labour vote to squeeze (it almost doubled in 1997) and a strong local position, they should just about hold on.
29/05/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
But for Mike Hancock's 1984 by-election gain and his persistence since then as PS's "anti-Tory" of record, Portsmouth'd probably be enjoying an all-Labour delegation a la Southampton, Plymouth, Brighton, etc (Labour's surge to 25% here was the ghost of that probability). Within a much-bolstered LD caucus, Hancock appears more secure now than he did over years of electoral bibbing and bobbing, as long as the Conservatives (or, for that matter, Labour) fail to resoundingly convince constituents that voting for Lib Dem is a total waste of time...

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Last Updated 29 May 2001
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