Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Dundee East

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Iain M. Luke
Conservative Party:
Alan Donnelly
Liberal Democratic Party:
Raymond Lawrie
Scottish Nationalist Party:
Stewart M. Hosie
Scottish Socialist Party:
Harvey Duke

Incumbent:
John McAllion

97 Result:
John McAllion
20,71851.1%
Bruce Mackie
6,39715.8%
Gurudeo Saluja
1,6774.1%
Shona Robinson
1075726.54%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
40,52869.41%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
19,95444.3%
8,29718.4%
1,9394.3%
14,43732.1%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
44,99973.4%

Demographic Profile:

Employment:
Unemployed14.0%

Household SEG:
I - Professional4.3%
II - Managerial/Technical24.0%
III - Skilled (non-manual)24.6%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)21.7%
IV - Partly Skilled16.0%
V - Unskilled7.9%

Misc:
Own Residence45.4%
Rent Residence54.6%
Submissions
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22/05/01 JR Email:
This seat was held from 1974 to 1987 by SNP leader Gordon Wilson, and in 1979 and 1983 was one of only two Nationalist seats in Scotland (the other was the Western Isles, which is also now in Labour's hands). Sitting MP John McAllion, a popular and independent minded traditional socialist, was elected to the Scottish Parliament in 1999 and is stepping down from his Westminster seat, and the loss of his personal vote may hit Labour. My guess for Scotland as a whole is that the SNP vote will rise compared to General Election 97 but that will deliver few if any extra seats (though I think they'll gain Argyll from the Libdems) because most of the Labour majorities in Central Scotland are so large. If the SNP do better than I predict, however, Dundee East could be one of the first to fall.
22/05/01 Christopher J. Currie Email:8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
Yet another safe Labour seat. If the Nationalist bandwagon were to pick up full-kilter, there could be some troubles for Blair's forces -- but that won't happen this time around.

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Last Updated 23 May 2001
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