Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Stockport

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
M. Ann Coffey
Conservative Party:
John Allen
Liberal Democratic Party:
Mark Hunter
UK Independence Party:
Gerald Price

Incumbent:
Ms Ann Coffey

97 Result:
Ann Coffey
29,33862.9%
Stephen Fitzsimmons
10,42622.3%
Sylvia Roberts
4,95110.6%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
46,66971.54%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
25,85248.0%
20,38437.9%
6,89412.8%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
53,80880.1%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1620.6%
16-2412.5%
25-3924.8%
40-6524.2%
65 <17.9%

Ethnic Origin:
White96.8%
Black0.5%
Indian/Pakistani1.6%
Other non-white1.0%

Employment:
Full Time65.4%
Part Time14.2%
Self Employed10.2%
Government Schemes1.0%
Unemployed9.1%

Household SEG:
I - Professional8.0%
II - Managerial/Technical31.2%
III - Skilled (non-manual)14.0%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)26.5%
IV - Partly Skilled13.1%
V - Unskilled4.8%

Misc:
Own Residence70.0%
Rent Residence29.0%
Own Car(s)62.9%
Submissions
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01/06/01 JR Email:
The Tories held this seat between 1983 and 1992, but it seems now to have passed beyond their grasp. Boundary changes before the 1997 election were thought to have increased Labour's cushion over the Conservatives by about 4,000 votes, and that combined with the national swing gave Ann Coffey a stunning 18000 majority in a seat she had won by just 1400 votes five years beforehand. Labour have struggled in local elections in Stockport but the beneficiaries have been the LibDems, who now control the Borough Council (where the Tories are the third party). Given that LibDem support at local level is very rarely transformed into parliamentary victories another easy Labour win can be expected here. The only question is just how easy.

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Last Updated 1 June 2001
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