Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Manchester, Gorton

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Rt. Hon. Gerald B. Kaufman
Conservative Party:
Christopher Causer
Liberal Democratic Party:
Jacqueline M. Pearcey
Green Party:
Bruce Bingham

Incumbent:
Rt Hon Gerald Kaufman

97 Result:
Gerald Kaufman
23,70465.3%
Guy Senior
4,24911.7%
Jackie Pearcey
6,36217.5%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
36,31156.43%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
23,65862.3%
7,38819.5%
5,32414.0%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
37,95360.6%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1623.3%
16-2416.3%
25-3922.8%
40-6521.3%
65 <16.2%

Ethnic Origin:
White79.9%
Black5.4%
Indian/Pakistani11.6%
Other non-white3.1%

Employment:
Full Time57.4%
Part Time12.9%
Self Employed8.4%
Government Schemes1.9%
Unemployed19.4%

Household SEG:
I - Professional5.4%
II - Managerial/Technical21.4%
III - Skilled (non-manual)12.4%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)27.8%
IV - Partly Skilled18.6%
V - Unskilled7.0%

Misc:
Own Residence47.9%
Rent Residence50.9%
Own Car(s)43.9%
Submissions
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23/04/01 NG Email:
With a massive 17,000 majority, it's hard to see Labour losing here. At a local level, the Tories have almost completely disappeared and it is the Lib Dems who have emerged as the major challengers. It will be interesting to see if there is any sign of this trend on general election night.

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Last Updated 23 April 2001
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