Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Carlisle

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Eric A. Martlew
Conservative Party:
Michael Mitchelson
Liberal Democratic Party:
John Guest

Incumbent:
Eric Martlew

97 Result:
Eric Martlew
25,03157.4%
Richard Lawrence
12,64129.0%
Christopher Mayho
4,57610.5%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
43,60772.78%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
21,66745.3%
19,74641.2%
6,23213.0%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
47,87578.3%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1619.2%
16-2412.7%
25-3921.7%
40-6526.3%
65 <20.2%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.3%
Black0.1%
Indian/Pakistani0.2%
Other non-white0.3%

Employment:
Full Time63.4%
Part Time19.3%
Self Employed7.9%
Government Schemes1.4%
Unemployed7.9%

Household SEG:
I - Professional3.3%
II - Managerial/Technical23.4%
III - Skilled (non-manual)15.0%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)34.2%
IV - Partly Skilled15.6%
V - Unskilled6.3%

Misc:
Own Residence65.0%
Rent Residence33.5%
Own Car(s)60.8%
Submissions
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06/05/01 JR Email:
Labour will in all probability hold Carlisle, as they have done ever since 1964. Nevertheless, Eric Martlew should not be complacent. Twice in the 1980s the Tories held Labour to majorities of less than a thousand (71 in 1983 and 916 in 1987). In 1999 the Tories took control of Carlisle Council on a huge swing, defeating a Labour administration with a flair for public relations disasters, although Labour have shown signs of recovery since, gaining a seat from the Lib Dems in a council byelection during April. Carlisle is at the heart of Cumbria and although it is town rather than country there could be a 'foot and mouth' effect which is difficult to predict. Labour to win, but not so effortlessly as last time.

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Last Updated 7 May 2001
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